The market of academic journals : empirical evidence from data on French libraries

This paper analyzes the demand and cost structure of the French market of academic journals, taking into account its intermediary role between researchers, who are both producers and consumers of knowledge. This two sidedness feature will echoes similar problems already observed in electronic markets – payment card systems, video game console etc - such as the chicken and egg problem, where readers won’t buy a journal if they do not expect its articles to be academically relevant and researchers, that live under the mantra “Publish or Perish”, will not submit to a journal with either limited public reach or weak reputation. After the merging of several databases, we estimate the aggregated nested logit demand system combined simultaneously with a cost function. We identify the structural parameters of this market and find that price elasticities of demand are quite large and margins relatively low, indicating that this industry experiences competitive constraints.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Consumption-wealth ratio and expected stock returns: evidence from panel data

This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.

Population structure, habitat use and conservation of short-finned pilot whales Globicephala macrorhynchus in the Archipelago of Madeira

This thesis provides information on the grouping structure, survival, abundance, dive characteristics and habitat preferences of short-finned pilot whales occurring in the oceanic archipelago of Madeira (Portugal, NE Atlantic), based on data collected between 2001-2011, and contributes for its conservation. Photo-identification methods and genetic analyses demonstrated that there is a large degree of variability in site fidelity, including resident, regular visitor and transient whales, and that they may not be genetically isolated. It is proposed that the pilot whales encountered in Madeira belong to a single population encompassing several clans, possibly three clans of island-associated (i.e. resident and regular visitor) whales and others of transients, each containing two to three matrilineal pods. Mark-recapture methods estimated that the island-associated community is composed of less than 150 individuals and that their survival rate is within the range of other long-lived cetacean species, and that around 300 whales of different residency patterns uses the southern area of the island of Madeira from mid-summer to mid-autumn. No significant trend was observed between years. Time-depth recorders deployed in adult whales during daytime revealed that they spend over ¾ of their time at the surface, that they have a low diving rate, and that transient whales also forage during their passage. The analyses of visual data collected from nautical and aerial line-transect surveys indicate a core/preferred habitat area in the south-east of the island of Madeira. That area is used for resting, socializing, foraging, breeding, calving and birthing. Thus, that area should be considered as an important habitat for this species, at least seasonally (during autumn) when the species is more abundant, and included in conservation plans. No direct threat needing urgent measures was identified, although the impact of some activities like whale-watching or marine traffic should be assessed.

Population structure and effects of inbreeding on milk yield and quality of Murrah buffaloes

To provide data for conservation, selection, and expansion programs of buffalo herds, this study evaluated the history of a population of Murrah buffaloes based on population structure and the effect of inbreeding on accumulated 305-d milk yield (MY), fat yield (FY), protein yield (PY), mozzarella production (MProd), and somatic cell score (SCS). The usefulness of including the individual inbreeding coefficient (F) or individual increase in inbreeding coefficient (Delta F) in the model to describe inbreeding depression was evaluated. Pedigree information from 8,054 animals born between 1976 and 2008 and 4,497 lactation records obtained from 12 herds were used. The realized effective population size was 40.10 +/- 1.27, and the mean F of the entire population was 2.14%. The ratio between the number of founders and ancestors demonstrated the existence of a bottleneck in the pedigree of this population, which may contribute to a reduction of genetic diversity. The effect of F on MY, FY, PY, MProd, and SCS was -1.005 kg, -0.299 kg, -0.246 kg, -1.201 kg, and -0.002 units, and the effect of Delta F transformed to equivalent F (%) for a mean of 2.57 equivalent generations was -4.287 kg, -0.581 kg, -0.383 kg, -2.001 kg, and -0.007 units, respectively. The inbreeding depression observed may have important economic repercussions for production systems. The Delta F can be considered the better of the two indicators of inbreeding depression due to its properties that prevent underestimation of this effect. A designed mating system to avoid inbreeding may be applied to this population to maintain genetic diversity.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Odometria visual baseada em técnicas de structure from motion

Visual Odometry is the process that estimates camera position and orientation based solely on images and in features (projections of visual landmarks present in the scene) extraced from them. With the increasing advance of Computer Vision algorithms and computer processing power, the subarea known as Structure from Motion (SFM) started to supply mathematical tools composing localization systems for robotics and Augmented Reality applications, in contrast with its initial purpose of being used in inherently offline solutions aiming 3D reconstruction and image based modelling. In that way, this work proposes a pipeline to obtain relative position featuring a previously calibrated camera as positional sensor and based entirely on models and algorithms from SFM. Techniques usually applied in camera localization systems such as Kalman filters and particle filters are not used, making unnecessary additional information like probabilistic models for camera state transition. Experiments assessing both 3D reconstruction quality and camera position estimated by the system were performed, in which image sequences captured in reallistic scenarios were processed and compared to localization data gathered from a mobile robotic platform

Diversity and structure of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (Insecta) assemblages from riffles in mountain streams of Central Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of cosurfactant on the supramolecular structure and physicochemical properties of non-ionic biocompatible microemulsions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Synthesis and characterization of mono and polymeric cyclopalladated compounds: Crystal and molecular structure of [{Pd(dmba)(ONO2)}(2)(mu-pz)] center dot H2O (pz = pyrazine)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The structure and optical dispersion of the refractive index of tellurite glass

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Genome-Wide Survey of SNP Variation Uncovers the Genetic Structure of Cattle Breeds

The imprints of domestication and breed development on the genomes of livestock likely differ from those of companion animals. A deep draft sequence assembly of shotgun reads from a single Hereford female and comparative sequences sampled from six additional breeds were used to develop probes to interrogate 37,470 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 497 cattle from 19 geographically and biologically diverse breeds. These data show that cattle have undergone a rapid recent decrease in effective population size from a very large ancestral population, possibly due to bottlenecks associated with domestication, selection, and breed formation. Domestication and artificial selection appear to have left detectable signatures of selection within the cattle genome, yet the current levels of diversity within breeds are at least as great as exists within humans.

A Generalized Log-Normal Model for Grouped Survival Data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Phylogeography and genetic population structure of Caribbean sharpnose shark Rhizoprionodon porosus

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population structure and stock assessment of Hoplias malabaricus (Characiformes: Erythrinidae) caught by artisanal fishermen in river-reservoir transition area in Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)