Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.

Anàlisi ambiental de La Pleta: oficina tècnica del Parc del Garraf

En aquest projecte s’ha analitzat la viabilitat de l’autosuficiència de la Pleta, l’oficina tècnica del Parc del Garraf, a partir de diferents recursos renovables. S’ha realitzat un estudi del consum hídric i energètic i de la generació de residus per tal d’avaluar les deficiències de cada sistema, per poder-hi aplicar les mesures pertinents. Els resultats obtinguts mostren que un 40% de l’aigua que es consumeix a l’edifici prové dels camions cisterna que la subministren. Per tant, la principal proposta de millora va encaminada a reduir aquest volum d’aigua i per aconseguir-ho, es proposa augmentar la superfície de recollida d’aigua de pluja aprofitant la zona pavimentada del pati de magatzems. Les altres propostes intentaran reduir el volum total d’aigua consumida, com per exemple canviar el filtre actual de les aixetes per airejadors que permeten estalviar fins a un 50% d’aigua, instal·lar cisternes de volum inferior o posar en funcionament el reg per degoteig instal·lat actualment a la Pleta però que no es troba en funcionament. Pel que fa a l’energia hi ha dues fonts, el gasoil i les plaques FV. En quant al gasoil cal diferenciar entre el consum del generador per produir electricitat i el consum de la caldera per la calefacció. Un cop estudiat el sistema s’ha obtingut que les plaques solars FV aconsegueixen produir el 73% de l’electricitat demandada a la Pleta, la resta de l’electricitat la proporciona el generador. El principal problema, però és el gran consum de gasoil per la calefacció. Les millores proposades per a solucionar aquesta problemàtica pretenen millorar l’eficiència de la instal·lació de plaques solars FV col·locant més panells solars i disminuir el consum de gasoil per part de la calefacció, ja sigui millorant l’eficiència energètica i/o canviant la font d’energia per biomassa. En el cas de residus s’ha observat que es produeixen 3.283 kg/any, sent el rebuig la fracció més important. Per tal de reduir el volum de residus generats, es pretén fomentar la utilització d’estris reutlilitzables i el correcte reciclatge, substituint les papereres actuals dels despatxos per les de paper i posant cartells informatius o indicatiu en els llocs adients.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Adult abundance, biting behavior and parity of Anopheles aquasalis, Curry 1932 in two malarious areas of Sucre State, Venezuela

The principal vector of malaria in eastern Venezuela, Anopheles aquasalis, is exophagic and exophilic. Control using indoor insecticide house sprays has failed to lower the number of malaria cases. Therefore, studies were initiated in two villages of the eastern coastal state of Sucre to better understand this vector's biology and develop a more integrated control program. An. aquasalis was found to have a crepuscular biting behavior with a major peak at dusk and a minor peak at dawn. Mosquitos were collected more outdoors than indoors. Forty-seven percent of the biting took place before people went to bed (22:30 hr) and 69% of the mosquitos biting during this time period bite outdoors. Outdoor biting could be the reason why indoor spraying alone did not lower malaria cases. Seasonal abundance was greater in the rainy season compared to the dry season. Seasonal parous rates were high (78.3%-100%) and similar indoors and outdoors and between dry and wet season in Santa F e. In Guayana, the seasonal parity was lower (34.6%-42.2%) than Santa F e with indoor parity slightly higher than outdoors. Malaria cases were higher in Santa F e, but adult mosquito density was much lower than in Guayana. This difference could have been due to higher parity in Santa F e compared to Guayana. The greater distance to the nearest breeding site and presence of alternative hosts in Guayana can not be discounted as factors which contributed to the difference in malaria transmission between locations. We concluded that knowledge on seasonal occurrence, biting activity, resting behavior and breeding site location can be used to design a new control strategy for this vector.

Disseny d'un mètode de valoració d'itineraris d'educació ambiental i aplicació a l'àmbit Parc Natural de l'Alt Pirineu - Alt Urgell

El Parc Natural de l’Alt Pirineu (PNAP) està creant una xarxa d’itineraris d’educació ambiental amb l’objectiu de divulgar els valors del parc i conscienciar els seus visitants sobre la importància de conservar el medi ambient. El desenvolupament de mètodes de valoració de l’aptitud de potencials itineraris d’educació ambiental pot servir per crear eines de gestió molt útils a l’hora d’ampliar aquesta xarxa de senders. Per aquest motiu, un grup anterior de la llicenciatura de Ciències Ambientals va desenvolupar el preprotocol Neret, que permet obtenir una puntuació numèrica per a un itinerari, responent a una sèrie de preguntes senzilles. En el present projecte, s’ha aplicat el protocol anterior a tres itineraris de muntanya per tal d’estudiar-ne el funcionament en un tipus d’itinerari diferent dels de fons de vall, on va ser dissenyat. L’anàlisi del preprotocol s’ha efectuat mitjançant una matriu DAFO, a partir de la qual s’han proposat una sèrie d’estratègies de millora i, a partir d’aquestes, s’ha desenvolupat un nou mètode de valoració. Els principals aspectes negatius del preprotocol són la seva manca de flexibilitat, la sobrevaloració dels criteris relacionats amb la dificultat del recorregut, la manca de detall en l’anàlisi del potencial interpretatiu dels itineraris a més del poc pes que té aquest criteri en la puntuació global i, finalment, l’absència d’un criteri que valori els potencials impactes que es podrien derivar de l’ús de l’itinerari. Aquestes mancances s’han mirat de corregir al mètode de valoració dissenyat en el present projecte mitjançant les següents aportacions: una estructura transversal dividida en quatre factors avaluats per separat, sense criteris de valoració excloents i amb una ponderació final dels quatre principals criteris modificable segons els objectius dels gestors; una valoració més detallada dels continguts de l’itinerari, i finalment, la inclusió d’un nou criteri que considera la vulnerabilitat del medi a qualsevol tipus d’impacte.

Juridical double taxation by cross border transactions: the Block Case (C-67/08)

Treaty Establishing the European Community, operative until December 1st 2009, had already established in its article 2 the mission of the up until then European Community and actual European Union is to promote an harmonious, equilibrated and sustainable development of the economic activities of the whole Community. This Mission must be achieved by establishing a Common Market, an Economic and Monetary Union and the realization of Common Policies. One of the instruments to obtain these objectives is the use of free circulation of people, services and capitals inside the Common and Interior Market of the European Union. The European Union is characterized by the confirmation of the total movement of capitals, services and individuals and legal peoples’ freedom; freedom that was already predicated by the Maastricht Treaty, through the suppression of whatever obstacles which are in the way of the objectives before exposed. The old TEC in its Title III, now Title IV of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, covered the free circulation of people, services and capitals. Consequently, the inclusion of this mechanism inside one of the regulating texts of the European Union indicates the importance this freedom supposes for the European Union objectives’ development. Once stood up the relevance of the free movement of people, services and capitals, we must mention that in this paper we are going to centre our study in one of these freedoms of movement: the free movement of capital. In order to analyze in detail the free movement of capital within the European framework, we are going to depart from the analysis of the existent case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union. The use of jurisprudence is basic to know how Community legislation is interpreted. For this reason, we are going to develop this work through judgements dictated by the European Union Court. This way we can observe how Member States’ regulating laws and the European Common Law affect the free movement of capital. The starting point of this paper will be the Judgement C-67/08 European Court of Justice of February 12th 2009, known as Block case. So, following the argumentation the Luxemburg Court did about the mentioned case, we are going to develop how free movement of capital could be affected by the current disparity of Member States’ legislation. This disparity can produce double taxation cases due to the lack of tax harmonized legislation within the interior market and the lack of treaties to avoid double taxation within the European Union. Developing this idea we are going to see how double taxation, at least indirectly, can infringe free movement of capital.

GPs' role in the detection of psychological problems of young people: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Among young people, about one in three females and one in five males report experiencing emotional distress but 65-95% of them do not receive help from health professionals. AIM: To assess the differences among young people who seek help and those who do not seek help for their psychological problems, considering the frequency of consultations to their GP and their social resources. DESIGN OF STUDY: School survey. SETTING: Post-mandatory school. METHOD: Among a Swiss national representative sample of 7429 students and apprentices (45.6% females) aged 16-20 years, 1931 young people reported needing help for a problem of depression/sadness (26%) and were included in the study. They were divided into those who sought help (n = 256) and those who did not (n = 1675), and differences between them were assessed. RESULTS: Only 13% of young people needing help for psychological problems consulted for that reason and this rate was positively associated with the frequency of consultations to the GP. However, 80% of young people who did not consult for psychological problems visited their GP at least once during the previous year. Being older or a student, having a higher depression score, or a history of suicide attempt were linked with a higher rate of help seeking. Moreover, confiding in adults positively influenced the rate of help seeking. CONCLUSION: The large majority of young people reporting psychological problems do not seek help, although they regularly consult their GP. While young people have difficulties in tackling issues about mental health, GPs could improve the situation by systematically inquiring about this issue.

The Impact of democratization: a preliminary investigation on social policies and political violence in Latin America

The recent strides of democracy in Latin America have been associated to conflicting outcomes. The expectation that democracy would bring about peace and prosperity have been only partly satisfied. While political violence has been by and large eradicated from the sub-continent, poverty and social injustice still prevail and hold sway. Our study argues that democracy matters for inequality through the growing strength of center left and left parties and by making political leaders in general more responsive to the underprivileged. Furthermore, although the pension reforms recently enacted in the region generated overall regressive outcomes on income distribution, democratic countries still benefit from their political past: where democratic tradition was stronger, such outcomes have been milder. Democratic tradition and the specific ideological connotations of the parties in power, on the other hand, did not play an equally crucial role in securing lower levels of political violence: during the last wave of democratizations in Latin America, domestic peace was rather an outcome of political and social concessions to those in distress. In sum, together with other factors and especially economic ones, the reason why recent democratizations have provided domestic peace in most cases, but have been unable so far to solve the problem of poverty and inequality, is that democratic traditions in the subcontinent have been relatively weak and, more specifically, that this weakness has undermined the growth of left and progressive parties, acting as an obstacle to redistribution. Such weakness, on the other hand, has not prevented the drastic reduction of domestic political violence, since what mattered in this case was a combination of symbolic or material concessions and political agreements among powerful élites and counter-élites.

Mono-allelic Ly49 NK cell receptor expression.

Each cell is equipped with two copies (alleles) of each autosomal gene. While the vast majority use both alleles, occasional genes are expressed from a single allele. The reason for mono-allelic expression is not always evident and can serve distinct purposes. First, it may facilitate the tight control over the dosage of certain gene products such as some growth factors and their receptors or X-linked genes. Second, the differential usage of the two parental alleles may reflect the mechanisms that ensure mono-specificity, e.g. olfactory receptors, T and B cell receptors. The context of allele-specific expression of the murine Ly49 natural killer (NK) cell receptor genes suggests that their allele-specific expression reflects a process that generates clonal variability.

Avaluació de nous algorismes per a la creació de camins entre nodes de la xarxa TOR

En este proyecto se presenta un estudio y una implementación sobre estrategias de selección de nodos de la red TOR. Para esto en una primera parte teorica se da a conocer todo lo que comportan las redes anónimas y su implementación en diferentes entornos. A continuación se estudian los requerimientos y la viabilidad del proyecto. Finalmente exponemos el diseño y desarrollo de los distintos algoritmos propuestos juntamente con las pruebas realizadas y las conclusiones a las que se ha llegado.

Col·laboració a l'estudi de les plantes invasores del Parc Natural de l'Alt Pirineu: cartografia de detall i recull de mesures de gestió

La intrusió de les plantes exòtiques invasores en els espais naturals protegits de Catalunya s’ha convertit en un problema de primer ordre. En alguns d’aquests espais fa temps que s’han començat a gestionar aquestes espècies exòtiques. No és el cas del PNAP, que degut a la seva recent creació, encara no ha pogut tractar a fons aquesta problemàtica. Per tant, amb el present estudi s’ha treballat en conèixer la distribució d’aquetes espècies en el Parc i en crear una base de referència. La major part de les plantes trobades estan situades en llocs on la pressió humana es molt forta. Un cop establertes prop de les àrees més antropitzades, aquestes espècies es disseminen pel territori aprofitant-se de les zones degradades per establir-se. Per aquesta raó, també es proposen les mesures d’actuació més adients per a gestionar aquestes espècies en el territori de l’Alt Pirineu, prenent com a referent les actuacions que es duen a terme avui arreu del món.

Anti-embryonation immunity in murine schistosomiasis japonica (Philippines)

The hypothesis that granuloma modulation and disease abatement in chronic infection with Schistosoma japonicum could be ascribed to antibody-mediated effects on egg maturation and egg viability, arose from studies performed with mice in the Philippines. This novel hypothesis has not yet been integrated into the schistosomiasis literature despite being formulated more than a decade ago. One reason for this is that the phenomenon might be confined to S. japonicum, even S. japonicum (Philippines).

La poética del desig: amor i bogeria a l'Orlando furioso

Aquesta tesina, amb el títol "La poètica del desig. amor i bogeria a l'Orlando furioso", proposa una nova lectura del poema de Ludovico Ariosto, prenent com a objectiu l'anàlisi de la bogeria del seu protagonista, el Comte Orlando, "che per amor venne in furore e matto / d'uom che sì saggio era stimato prima". Així doncs, pretenem esbrinar per què davant de la constatació de Matteo Maria Boiardo d'un "Orlando innmorato", Ariosto va respondre amb un "Orlando furioso", narrant així "cosa non detta in prosa mai né in rima". Per arribar fins al fons de la qüestió, ens hem preguntat quins són l'origen, la manifestació textual, la dimensió i el significat del concepte de "furor" en el text; interrogants que ens han conduït cap a una bogeria amorosa que és manifestació externa d'un desig insatisfet. Un concepte que, a més a més d'evocar l"Hercules furens" d'Eurípides i Sèneca, ens remet a la teoria dels humors de Galè, al concepte de 'melancholia' d'Aristòtil i a l'eròtica platònica, al mateix temps que reprodueix els models del que Cesare Segre anomena la 'follie littéraire' característica de l'època medieval. A partir d'aquesta anàlisi s'ha interpretat el text com una apologia de les passions en la que es destrona al savi com a paradigma i model ètic, acabant així amb la imatge de l'home com a "animal rationale", situant per contra la seva "humanitas" ja no en la racionalitat (tampoc en la irracionalitat), sinó en la passionalitat, oferint així un retrat de l'ésser humà com a "animal passionalis" , una criatura intermitja en la que haurien de confluir idealment raó i passió.

A one-year monitoring of nicotine use in sport: frontier between potential performance enhancement and addiction issues.

Tobacco consumption is a global epidemic responsible for a vast burden of disease. With pharmacological properties sought-after by consumers and responsible for addiction issues, nicotine is the main reason of this phenomenon. Accordingly, smokeless tobacco products are of growing popularity in sport owing to potential performance enhancing properties and absence of adverse effects on the respiratory system. Nevertheless, nicotine does not appear on the 2011 World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) Prohibited List or Monitoring Program by lack of a comprehensive large-scale prevalence survey. Thus, this work describes a one-year monitoring study on urine specimens from professional athletes of different disciplines covering 2010 and 2011. A method for the detection and quantification of nicotine, its major metabolites (cotinine, trans-3-hydroxycotinine, nicotine-N'-oxide and cotinine-N-oxide) and minor tobacco alkaloids (anabasine, anatabine and nornicotine) was developed, relying on ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography coupled to triple quadrupole mass spectrometry (UHPLC-TQ-MS/MS). A simple and fast dilute-and-shoot sample treatment was performed, followed by hydrophilic interaction chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HILIC-MS/MS) operated in positive electrospray ionization (ESI) mode with multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) data acquisition. After method validation, assessing the prevalence of nicotine consumption in sport involved analysis of 2185 urine samples, accounting for 43 different sports. Concentrations distribution of major nicotine metabolites, minor nicotine metabolites and tobacco alkaloids ranged from 10 (LLOQ) to 32,223, 6670 and 538 ng/mL, respectively. Compounds of interest were detected in trace levels in 23.0% of urine specimens, with concentration levels corresponding to an exposure within the last three days for 18.3% of samples. Likewise, hypothesizing conservative concentration limits for active nicotine consumption prior and/or during sport practice (50 ng/mL for nicotine, cotinine and trans-3-hydroxycotinine and 25 ng/mL for nicotine-N'-oxide, cotinine-N-oxide, anabasine, anatabine and nornicotine) revealed a prevalence of 15.3% amongst athletes. While this number may appear lower than the worldwide smoking prevalence of around 25%, focusing the study on selected sports highlighted more alarming findings. Indeed, active nicotine consumption in ice hockey, skiing, biathlon, bobsleigh, skating, football, basketball, volleyball, rugby, American football, wrestling and gymnastics was found to range between 19.0 and 55.6%. Therefore, considering the adverse effects of smoking on the respiratory tract and numerous health threats detrimental to sport practice at top level, likelihood of smokeless tobacco consumption for performance enhancement is greatly supported.

Desenvolupament de vacunes peptídiques y dendrímers basats en polietilenglicol per al tractament del càncer

El principal problema de les teràpies actuals contra el càncer es la baixa especificitat envers les cèl•lules tumorals, cosa que comporta gran quantitat d’efectes secundaris. Per això es important el desenvolupament de nous tipus de teràpies i sistemes d’alliberament efectius per als fàrmacs ja existents al mercat. En la immunoteràpia contra el càncer es pretén estimular el sistema immunològic per a eliminar les cèl•lules canceroses de manera selectiva. En aquest projecte s’han sintetitzat derivats de l’antigen peptídic de melanoma NY-ESO1 i s’ha estudiat la seva capacitat per a estimular el sistema immunològic com a vacunes contra el càncer. També s’han encapsulat el antígens peptídics en liposomes com a adjuvants i sistemes d’alliberament. De totes les variants peptídiques la que resultà més immunogènica fou la que contenia el grup palmitoil i el fragment toxoide tetànic en la seva estructura. La utilització de liposomes com a sistema adjuvant sembla una estratègia interessant per al disseny de vacunes contra el càncer donat que l’encapsulació del pèptid en liposomes va augmentar notablement la resposta immunològica de l’antigen. Per altra banda, s’han desenvolupat dendrímers basats en polietilenglicol com a sistemes alliberadors de fàrmacs per al tractament de tumors. El polietilenglicol és àmpliament utilitzat com a sistema d’alliberament de fàrmacs degut a les seves interessants propietats, augment de la solubilitat i dels temps de residència en plasma, entre d’altres. La metodologia química descrita permet la diferenciació controlada de varies posicions en la superfície del dendrímer a més del creixement del dendrímer fins a una segona generació. S’ha sintetitzat la primera generació del dendrímer contenint el fàrmac antitumoral 5-fluorouracil i s’han realitzat estudis de citotoxicitat comprovant que l’activitat del nanoconjugat és del mateix ordre de magnitud que el 5-fluorouracil sense conjugar.