Sex workers can be screened too often : a cost-effectiveness analysis in Victoria, Australia

Objectives Commercial sex is licensed in Victoria, Australia such that sex workers are required to have regular tests for sexually transmitted infections (STIs). However, the incidence and prevalence of STIs in sex workers are very low, especially since there is almost universal condom use at work. We aimed to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of the financial cost of the testing policy versus the health benefits of averting the transmission of HIV, syphilis, chlamydia and gonorrhoea to clients. Methods We developed a simple mathematical transmission model, informed by conservative parameter estimates from all available data, linked to a cost-effectiveness analysis. Results We estimated that under current testing rates, it costs over $A90 000 in screening costs for every chlamydia infection averted (and $A600 000 in screening costs for each quality-adjusted life year (QALY) saved) and over $A4 000 000 for every HIV infection averted ($A10 000 000 in screening costs for each QALY saved). At an assumed willingness to pay of $A50 000 per QALY gained, HIV testing should not be conducted less than approximately every 40 weeks and chlamydia testing approximately once per year; in comparison, current requirements are testing every 12 weeks for HIV and every 4 weeks for chlamydia. Conclusions Mandatory screening of female sex workers at current testing frequencies is not cost-effective for the prevention of disease in their male clients. The current testing rate required of sex workers in Victoria is excessive. Screening intervals for sex workers should be based on local STI epidemiology and not locked by legislation.

The value of tail risk hedging in defined contribution plans: What does history tell us

Hedging against tail events in equity markets has been forcefully advocated in the aftermath of recent global financial crisis. Whether this is beneficial to long horizon investors like employees enrolled in defined contribution (DC) plans, however, has been subject to criticism. We conduct historical simulation since 1928 to examine the effectiveness of active and passive tail risk hedging using out of money put options for hypothetical equity portfolios of DC plan participants with 20 years to retirement. Our findings show that the cost of tail hedging exceeds the benefits for a majority of the plan participants during the sample period. However, for a significant number of simulations, hedging result in superior outcomes relative to an unhedged position. Active tail hedging is more effective when employees confront several panic-driven periods characterized by short and sharp market swings in the equity markets over the investment horizon. Passive hedging, on the other hand, proves beneficial when they encounter an extremely rare event like the Great Depression as equity markets go into deep and prolonged decline.

Implementation and evaluation of open source unified communications for SMBs

Unified Communication (UC) is the integration of two or more real time communication systems into one platform. Integrating core communication systems into one overall enterprise level system delivers more than just cost saving. These real-time interactive communication services and applications over Internet Protocol (IP) have become critical in boosting employee accessibility and efficiency, improving customer support and fostering business agility. However, some small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) are far from implementing this solution due to the high cost of initial deployment and ongoing support. In this paper, we will discuss and demonstrate an open source UC solution, viz. “Asterisk” for use by SMBs, and report on some performance tests using SIPp. The contribution from this research is the provision of technical advice to SMBs in deploying UC, which is manageable in terms of cost, ease of deployment and support.

Adverse breast cancer treatment effects: The economic case for making rehabilitative programs standard of care

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to evaluate the patient-borne financial cost of common, adverse breast cancer treatment-associated effects, comparing cost across women with or without these side-effects. Methods: 287 Australian women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer were prospectively followed starting at six months post-surgery for 12 months, with three-monthly assessment of detailed treatment-related side effects and their direct and indirect patient costs attributable to breast cancer. Bootstrapping statistics were used to analyze cost data and adjusted logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between costs and adverse events from breast cancer. Costs were inflated and converted from 2002 Australian to 2014 US dollars. Results: More than 90% of women experienced at least one adverse effect (i.e. post-surgical issue, reaction to radiotherapy, upper-body symptoms or reduced function, lymphedema, fatigue or weight gain). On average, women paid $5,636 (95%CI: $4,694, $6,577) in total costs. Women with any one of the following symptoms (fatigue, reduced upper-body function, upper-body symptoms) or women who report ≥4 adverse treatment-related effects, have 1.5 to nearly 4 times the odds of having higher healthcare costs than women who do not report these complaints (p<0.05). Conclusions: Women face substantial economic burden due to a range of treatment-related health problems, which may persist beyond the treatment period. Improving breast cancer care by incorporating prospective surveillance of treatment-related side effects, and strategies for prevention and treatment of concerns (e.g., exercise) has real potential for reducing patient-borne costs.

Piecing the puzzle together : enhancing the quality of road trauma surveillance through linkage of police and health data

This program of research linked police and health data collections to investigate the potential benefits for road safety in terms of enhancing the quality of data. This research has important implications for road safety because, although police collected data has historically underpinned efforts in the area, it is known that many road crashes are not reported to police and that these data lack specific injury severity information. This research shows that data linkage provides a more accurate quantification of the severity and prevalence of road crash injuries which is essential for: prioritising funding; targeting interventions; and estimating the burden and cost of road trauma.

Meta-analysis of prevalence

Meta-analysis is a method to obtain a weighted average of results from various studies. In addition to pooling effect sizes, meta-analysis can also be used to estimate disease frequencies, such as incidence and prevalence. In this article we present methods for the meta-analysis of prevalence. We discuss the logit and double arcsine transformations to stabilise the variance. We note the special situation of multiple category prevalence, and propose solutions to the problems that arise. We describe the implementation of these methods in the MetaXL software, and present a simulation study and the example of multiple sclerosis from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project. We conclude that the double arcsine transformation is preferred over the logit, and that the MetaXL implementation of multiple category prevalence is an improvement in the methodology of the meta-analysis of prevalence.

Prevalence of methicillin resistance and virulence determinants of Staphylococcus aureus in diabetic foot ulcers

Background Diabetic foot ulceration (DFU) is a multifactorial process and is responsible for considerable morbidity and contributes to the increasing cost of health care worldwide. The diagnosis and identification of these ulcers remains a complex problem. Bacterial infection is promoted in the diabetic foot wound by decreased vascular supply and impaired host immune response. As conventional clinical microbiological methods are time-consuming and only identifies about 1% of the wound microbiota, detection of bacteria present in DFUs using molecular methods is highly advantageous and efficient. The aim of this study was to assess the virulence and methicillin resistance profiles of Staphylococcus aureus detected in DFUs using DNA-based methods. Methods A total of 223 swab samples were collected from 30 patients from March to October 2012. Bacterial DNA was extracted from the swab samples using standard procedures and was used to perform polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using specific oligonucleotide primers. The products were visualized using agarose gel electrophoresis. Results S. aureus was detected in 44.8% of samples. 25% of the S. aureus was methicillin-resistant S. aureus harboring the mecA gene. The alpha-toxin gene was present in 85% of the S. aureus positive samples. 61% of the S. aureus present in DFU samples harbored the exfoliatin factor A gene. Both the fibronectin factor A and fibronectin factor B gene were detected in 71% and 74% of the S. aureus positive samples. Conclusions DNA-based detection and characterization of bacteria in DFUs are rapid and efficient and can assist in accurate, targeted antibiotic therapy of DFU infections. The majority of S. aureus detected in this study were highly virulent and also resistant to methicillin. Further studies are required to understand the role of S. aureus in DFU trajectory.

Technoeconomic analysis of an integrated microalgae photobioreactor, biodiesel and biogas production facility

As fossil fuel prices increase and environmental concerns gain prominence, the development of alternative fuels from biomass has become more important. Biodiesel produced from microalgae is becoming an attractive alternative to share the role of petroleum. Currently it appears that the production of microalgal biodiesel is not economically viable in current environment because it costs more than conventional fuels. Therefore, a new concept is introduced in this article as an option to reduce the total production cost of microalgal biodiesel. The integration of biodiesel production system with methane production via anaerobic digestion is proved in improving the economics and sustainability of overall biodiesel stages. Anaerobic digestion of microalgae produces methane and further be converted to generate electricity. The generated electricity can surrogate the consumption of energy that require in microalgal cultivation, dewatering, extraction and transesterification process. From theoretical calculations, the electricity generated from methane is able to power all of the biodiesel production stages and will substantially reduce the cost of biodiesel production (33% reduction). The carbon emissions of biodiesel production systems are also reduced by approximately 75% when utilizing biogas electricity compared to when the electricity is otherwise purchased from the Victorian grid. The overall findings from this study indicate that the approach of digesting microalgal waste to produce biogas will make the production of biodiesel from algae more viable by reducing the overall cost of production per unit of biodiesel and hence enable biodiesel to be more competitive with existing fuels.

Marginal costs of hospital-acquired conditions : information for priority-setting for patient safety programmes and research

Objective: To estimate the relative inpatient costs of hospital-acquired conditions. Methods: Patient level costs were estimated using computerized costing systems that log individual utilization of inpatient services and apply sophisticated cost estimates from the hospital's general ledger. Occurrence of hospital-acquired conditions was identified using an Australian ‘condition-onset' flag for diagnoses not present on admission. These were grouped to yield a comprehensive set of 144 categories of hospital-acquired conditions to summarize data coded with ICD-10. Standard linear regression techniques were used to identify the independent contribution of hospital-acquired conditions to costs, taking into account the case-mix of a sample of acute inpatients (n = 1,699,997) treated in Australian public hospitals in Victoria (2005/06) and Queensland (2006/07). Results: The most costly types of complications were post-procedure endocrine/metabolic disorders, adding AU$21,827 to the cost of an episode, followed by MRSA (AU$19,881) and enterocolitis due to Clostridium difficile (AU$19,743). Aggregate costs to the system, however, were highest for septicaemia (AU$41.4 million), complications of cardiac and vascular implants other than septicaemia (AU$28.7 million), acute lower respiratory infections, including influenza and pneumonia (AU$27.8 million) and UTI (AU$24.7 million). Hospital-acquired complications are estimated to add 17.3% to treatment costs in this sample. Conclusions: Patient safety efforts frequently focus on dramatic but rare complications with very serious patient harm. Previous studies of the costs of adverse events have provided information on ‘indicators’ of safety problems rather than the full range of hospital-acquired conditions. Adding a cost dimension to priority-setting could result in changes to the focus of patient safety programmes and research. Financial information should be combined with information on patient outcomes to allow for cost-utility evaluation of future interventions.

Application of anomaly technique in wind turbine bearing fault detection

Bearing faults are the most common cause of wind turbine failures. Unavailability and maintenance cost of wind turbines are becoming critically important, with their fast growing in electric networks. Early fault detection can reduce outage time and costs. This paper proposes Anomaly Detection (AD) machine learning algorithms for fault diagnosis of wind turbine bearings. The application of this method on a real data set was conducted and is presented in this paper. For validation and comparison purposes, a set of baseline results are produced using the popular one-class SVM methods to examine the ability of the proposed technique in detecting incipient faults.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For example, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously. These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency. ©2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Cost-effective biodiversity restoration with uncertain growth in forest habitat quality

This paper develops a dynamic model for cost-effective selection of sites for restoring biodiversity when habitat quality develops over time and is uncertain. A safety-first decision criterion is used for ensuring a minimum level of habitats, and this is formulated in a chance-constrained programming framework. The theoretical results show; (i) inclusion of quality growth reduces overall cost for achieving a future biodiversity target from relatively early establishment of habitats, but (ii) consideration of uncertainty in growth increases total cost and delays establishment, and (iii) cost-effective trading of habitat requires exchange rate between sites that varies over time. An empirical application to the red listed umbrella species - white-backed woodpecker - shows that the total cost of achieving habitat targets specified in the Swedish recovery plan is doubled if the target is to be achieved with high reliability, and that equilibrating price on a habitat trading market differs considerably between different quality growth combinations. © 2013 Elsevier GmbH.

Managing moose harvests by the seat of your pants

Moose populations are managed for sustainable yield balanced against costs caused by damage to forestry or agriculture and collisions with vehicles. Optimal harvests can be calculated based on a structured population model driven by data on abundance and the composition of bulls, cows, and calves obtained by aerial-survey monitoring during winter. Quotas are established by the respective government agency and licenses are issued to hunters to harvest an animal of specified age or sex during the following autumn. Because the cost of aerial monitoring is high, we use a Management Strategy Evaluation to evaluate the costs and benefits of periodic aerial surveys in the context of moose management. Our on-the-fly "seat of your pants" alternative to independent monitoring is management based solely on the kill of moose by hunters, which is usually sufficient to alert the manager to declines in moose abundance that warrant adjustments to harvest strategies. Harvests are relatively cheap to monitor; therefore, data can be obtained each year facilitating annual adjustments to quotas. Other sources of "cheap" monitoring data such as records of the number of moose seen by hunters while hunting also might be obtained, and may provide further useful insight into population abundance, structure and health. Because conservation dollars are usually limited, the high cost of aerial surveys is difficult to justify when alternative methods exist. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Optimal allocation of conservation effort among subpopulations of a threatened species: How important is patch quality?

Money is often a limiting factor in conservation, and attempting to conserve endangered species can be costly. Consequently, a framework for optimizing fiscally constrained conservation decisions for a single species is needed. In this paper we find the optimal budget allocation among isolated subpopulations of a threatened species to minimize local extinction probability. We solve the problem using stochastic dynamic programming, derive a useful and simple alternative guideline for allocating funds, and test its performance using forward simulation. The model considers subpopulations that persist in habitat patches of differing quality, which in our model is reflected in different relationships between money invested and extinction risk. We discover that, in most cases, subpopulations that are less efficient to manage should receive more money than those that are more efficient to manage, due to higher investment needed to reduce extinction risk. Our simple investment guideline performs almost as well as the exact optimal strategy. We illustrate our approach with a case study of the management of the Sumatran tiger, Panthera tigris sumatrae, in Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia. We find that different budgets should be allocated to the separate tiger subpopulations in KSNP. The subpopulation that is not at risk of extinction does not require any management investment. Based on the combination of risks of extinction and habitat quality, the optimal allocation for these particular tiger subpopulations is an unusual case: subpopulations that occur in higher-quality habitat (more efficient to manage) should receive more funds than the remaining subpopulation that is in lower-quality habitat. Because the yearly budget allocated to the KSNP for tiger conservation is small, to guarantee the persistence of all the subpopulations that are currently under threat we need to prioritize those that are easier to save. When allocating resources among subpopulations of a threatened species, the combined effects of differences in habitat quality, cost of action, and current subpopulation probability of extinction need to be integrated. We provide a useful guideline for allocating resources among isolated subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Valuation of hospital bed-days released by infection control programs: A comparison of methods

We performed a contingent valuation survey to elicit the opportunity cost of bed-days consumed by healthcare-associated infections in 11 European hospitals. The opportunity cost of a bed-day was significantly lower than the accounting cost; median values were i72 and i929, respectively (P ! .001). Accounting methods overestimate the opportunity cost of bed-days...