Cross-validation of methods used for analysis of MTBE and other gasoline components in groundwater.

Head space gas chromatography with flame-ionization detection (HS-GC-FID), ancl purge and trap gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (P&T-GC-MS) have been used to determine methyl-tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and benzene, toluene, and the ylenes (BTEX) in groundwater. In the work discussed in this paper measures of quality, e.g. recovery (94-111%), precision (4.6 - 12.2%), limits of detection (0.3 - 5.7 I~g L 1 for HS and 0.001 I~g L 1 for PT), and robust-ness, for both methods were compared. In addition, for purposes of comparison, groundwater samples from areas suffering from odor problems because of fuel spillage and tank leakage were analyzed by use of both techniques. For high concentration levels there was good correlation between results from both methods.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Quantitative Analysis of Myelin and Axonal Remodeling in the Uninjured Motor Network After Stroke.

Contralesional brain connectivity plasticity was previously reported after stroke. This study aims at disentangling the biological mechanisms underlying connectivity plasticity in the uninjured motor network after an ischemic lesion. In particular, we measured generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA) and magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) to assess whether poststroke connectivity remodeling depends on axonal and/or myelin changes. Diffusion-spectrum imaging and magnetization transfer MRI at 3T were performed in 10 patients in acute phase, at 1 and 6 months after stroke, which was affecting motor cortical and/or subcortical areas. Ten age- and gender-matched healthy volunteers were scanned 1 month apart for longitudinal comparison. Clinical assessment was also performed in patients prior to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In the contralesional hemisphere, average measures and tract-based quantitative analysis of GFA and MTR were performed to assess axonal integrity and myelination along motor connections as well as their variations in time. Mean and tract-based measures of MTR and GFA showed significant changes in a number of contralesional motor connections, confirming both axonal and myelin plasticity in our cohort of patients. Moreover, density-derived features (peak height, standard deviation, and skewness) of GFA and MTR along the tracts showed additional correlation with clinical scores than mean values. These findings reveal the interplay between contralateral myelin and axonal remodeling after stroke.

Particle shape and orientation in laser diffraction and static image analysis size distribution analysis of micrometer sized rectangular particles

Laser diffraction (LD) and static image analysis (SIA) of rectangular particles [United States Pharmacopeia, USP30-NF25, General Chapter <776>, Optical Miroscopy.] have been systematically studied. To rule out sample dispersion and particle orientation as the root cause of differences in size distribution profiles, we immobilize powder samples on a glass plate by means of a dry disperser. For a defined region of the glass plate, we measure the diffraction pattern as induced by the dispersed particles, and the 2D dimensions of the individual particles using LD and optical microscopy, respectively. We demonstrate a correlation between LD and SIA, with the scattering intensity of the individual particles as the dominant factor. In theory, the scattering intensity is related to the square of the projected area of both spherical and rectangular particles. In traditional LD the size distribution profile is dominated by the maximum projected area of the particles (A). The diffraction diameters of a rectangular particle with length L and breadth B as measured by the LD instrument approximately correspond to spheres of diameter ØL and ØB respectively. Differences in the scattering intensity between spherical and rectangular particles suggest that the contribution made to the overall LD volume probability distribution by each rectangular particle is proportional to A2/L and A2/B. Accordingly, for rectangular particles the scattering intensity weighted diffraction diameter (SIWDD) explains an overestimation of their shortest dimension and an underestimation of their longest dimension. This study analyzes various samples of particles whose length ranges from approximately 10 to 1000 μm. The correlation we demonstrate between LD and SIA can be used to improve validation of LD methods based on SIA data for a variety of pharmaceutical powders all with a different rectangular particle size and shape.

Clinico-Pathological discrepancies in the Diagnosis of Causes of Maternal Death in Sub-Saharan Africa: Retrospective Analysis

Background Maternal mortality is a major public-health problem in developing countries. Extreme differences in maternal mortality rates between developed and developing countries indicate that most of these deaths are preventable. Most information on the causes of maternal death in these areas is based on clinical records and verbal autopsies. Clinical diagnostic errors may play a significant role in this problem and might also have major implications for the evaluation of current estimations of causes of maternal death. Methods and Findings A retrospective analysis of clinico-pathologic correlation was carried out, using necropsy as the gold standard for diagnosis. All maternal autopsies (n ¼ 139) during the period from October 2002 to December 2004 at the Maputo Central Hospital, Mozambique were included and major diagnostic discrepancies were analyzed (i.e., those involving the cause of death). Major diagnostic errors were detected in 56 (40.3%) maternal deaths. A high rate of false negative diagnoses was observed for infectious diseases, which showed sensitivities under 50%: HIV/AIDS-related conditions (33.3%), pyogenic bronchopneumonia (35.3%), pyogenic meningitis (40.0%), and puerperal septicemia (50.0%). Eclampsia, was the main source of false positive diagnoses, showing a low predictive positive value (42.9%). Conclusions Clinico-pathological discrepancies may have a significant impact on maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and question the validity of reports based on clinical data or verbal autopsies. Increasing clinical awareness of the impact of obstetric and nonobstetric infections with their inclusion in the differential diagnosis, together with a thorough evaluation of cases clinically thought to be eclampsia, could have a significant impact on the reduction of maternal mortality.

Clinico-Pathological discrepancies in the Diagnosis of Causes of Maternal Death in Sub-Saharan Africa: Retrospective Analysis

Background Maternal mortality is a major public-health problem in developing countries. Extreme differences in maternal mortality rates between developed and developing countries indicate that most of these deaths are preventable. Most information on the causes of maternal death in these areas is based on clinical records and verbal autopsies. Clinical diagnostic errors may play a significant role in this problem and might also have major implications for the evaluation of current estimations of causes of maternal death. Methods and Findings A retrospective analysis of clinico-pathologic correlation was carried out, using necropsy as the gold standard for diagnosis. All maternal autopsies (n ¼ 139) during the period from October 2002 to December 2004 at the Maputo Central Hospital, Mozambique were included and major diagnostic discrepancies were analyzed (i.e., those involving the cause of death). Major diagnostic errors were detected in 56 (40.3%) maternal deaths. A high rate of false negative diagnoses was observed for infectious diseases, which showed sensitivities under 50%: HIV/AIDS-related conditions (33.3%), pyogenic bronchopneumonia (35.3%), pyogenic meningitis (40.0%), and puerperal septicemia (50.0%). Eclampsia, was the main source of false positive diagnoses, showing a low predictive positive value (42.9%). Conclusions Clinico-pathological discrepancies may have a significant impact on maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and question the validity of reports based on clinical data or verbal autopsies. Increasing clinical awareness of the impact of obstetric and nonobstetric infections with their inclusion in the differential diagnosis, together with a thorough evaluation of cases clinically thought to be eclampsia, could have a significant impact on the reduction of maternal mortality.

High c-Met expression in stage I-II pancreatic adenocarcinoma: proposal for an immunostaining scoring method and correlation with poor prognosis.

AIMS: c-Met is an emerging biomarker in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC); there is no consensus regarding the immunostaining scoring method for this marker. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of c-Met overexpression in resected PDAC, and to elaborate a robust and reproducible scoring method for c-Met immunostaining in this setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: c-Met immunostaining was graded according to the validated MetMab score, a classic visual scale combining surface and intensity (SI score), or a simplified score (high c-Met: ≥20% of tumour cells with strong membranous staining), in stage I-II PDAC. A computer-assisted classification method (Aperio software) was developed. Clinicopathological parameters were correlated with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival(OS). One hundred and forty-nine patients were analysed retrospectively in a two-step process. Thirty-seven samples (whole slides) were analysed as a pre-run test. Reproducibility values were optimal with the simplified score (kappa = 0.773); high c-Met expression (7/37) was associated with shorter DFS [hazard ratio (HR) 3.456, P = 0.0036] and OS (HR 4.257, P = 0.0004). c-Met expression was concordant on whole slides and tissue microarrays in 87.9% of samples, and quantifiable with a specific computer-assisted algorithm. In the whole cohort (n = 131), patients with c-Met(high) tumours (36/131) had significantly shorter DFS (9.3 versus 20.0 months, HR 2.165, P = 0.0005) and OS (18.2 versus 35.0 months, HR 1.832, P = 0.0098) in univariate and multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Simplified c-Met expression is an independent prognostic marker in stage I-II PDAC that may help to identify patients with a high risk of tumour relapse and poor survival.

Gene Expression Profiling of Desmoid Tumors by cDNA Microarrays and Correlation with Progression-Free Survival.

PURPOSE: Because desmoid tumors exhibit an unpredictable clinical course, translational research is crucial to identify the predictive factors of progression in addition to the clinical parameters. The main issue is to detect patients who are at a higher risk of progression. The aim of this work was to identify molecular markers that can predict progression-free survival (PFS). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Gene-expression screening was conducted on 115 available independent untreated primary desmoid tumors using cDNA microarray. We established a prognostic gene-expression signature composed of 36 genes. To test robustness, we randomly generated 1,000 36-gene signatures and compared their outcome association to our define 36-genes molecular signature and we calculated positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that our molecular signature had a significant impact on PFS while no clinical factor had any prognostic value. Among the 1,000 random signatures generated, 56.7% were significant and none was more significant than our 36-gene molecular signature. PPV and NPV were high (75.58% and 81.82%, respectively). Finally, the top two genes downregulated in no-recurrence were FECH and STOML2 and the top gene upregulated in no-recurrence was TRIP6. CONCLUSIONS: By analyzing expression profiles, we have identified a gene-expression signature that is able to predict PFS. This tool may be useful for prospective clinical studies. Clin Cancer Res; 21(18); 4194-200. ©2015 AACR.

Gamma Knife Surgery versus Linac for Brain Metastasis: Which Technique for Which Patient? Analysis of an Historical Cohort of 63 Consecutive Patients Harboring 130 Lesions

Objectives: We present the retrospective analysis of a single-institution experience for radiosurgery (RS) in brain metastasis (BM) with Gamma Knife (GK) and Linac. Methods: From July 2010 to July 2012, 28 patients (with 83 lesions) had RS with GK and 35 patients (with 47 lesions) with Linac. The primary outcome was the local progression-free survival (LPFS). The secondary outcome was the overall survival (OS). Apart a standard statistical analysis, we included a Cox regression model with shared frailty, to modulate the within-patient correlation (preliminary evaluation showed a significant frailty effect, meaning that the correlation within patient could be ignored). Results: The mean follow-up period was 11.7 months (median 7.9, 1.7-22.7) for GK and 18.1 (median 17, 7.5-28.7) for Linac. The median number of lesions per patient was 2.5 (1-9) in GK compared with 1 (1-3) in Linac. There were more radioresistant lesions (melanoma) and more lesions located in functional areas for the GK group. The median dose was 24 Gy (GK) compared with 20 Gy (Linac). The LPFS actuarial rate was as follows: for GK at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 months: 96.96, 96.96, 96.96, 88.1, and 81.5%, and remained stable till 32 months; for Linac at 3, 6, 12, 17, 24, and 33 months, it was 91.5, 91.5, 91.5, 79.9, 55.5, and 17.1%, respectively (p = 0.03, chi-square test). After the Cox regression analysis with shared frailty, the p-value was not statistically significant between groups. The median overall survival was 9.7 months for GK and 23.6 months for Linac group. Uni- and multivariate analysis showed a lower GPA score and noncontrolled systemic status were associated with lower OS. Cox regression analysis adjusting for these two parameters showed comparable OS rate. Conclusions: In this comparative report between GK and Linac, preliminary analysis showed that more difficult cases are treated by GK, with patients harboring more lesions, radioresistant tumors, and highly functional located. The groups look, in this sense, very heterogeneous at baseline. After a Cox frailty model, the LPFS rates seemed very similar (p < 0.05). The OS was similar, after adjusting for systemic status and GPA score (p < 0.05). The technical reasons for choosing GK instead of Linac were the anatomical location related to highly functional areas, histology, technical limitations of Linac movements, especially lower posterior fossa locations, or closeness of multiple lesions to highly functional areas optimal dosimetry with Linac

Confirmatory factor analysis of an inventory of perception of insecurity and fear of crime

This paper focuses on the study of the factorial structure of an inventory to estimate the subjective perception of insecurity and fear of crime. Made from the review of the literature on the subject and the results obtained in previous works, this factor structure shows that this attitude towards insecurity and fear of crime is identified through a number of latent factors which are schematically summarized in (a) personal safety, (b) the perception of personal and social control, (c) the presence of threatening people or situations, (d) the processes of identity and space appropriation, (e) satisfaction with the environment, and (f) the environmental and the use of space. Such factors are relevant dimensions to analyze the phenomenon. Method: A sample of 571 participants in a neighborhood of Barcelona was evaluated with the proposed inventory, which yielded data from the distributions of all the items provided. The administration was conducted by researchers specially trained for it and the results were analyzed by using standard procedures in the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) from the hypothesized theoretical structure. The analysis was performed by decatypes according to the different response scales prepared in the inventory and their ordinal nature, and by estimating the polychoric correlation coefficients. The results show an acceptable fit of the proposed model, an appropriate behavior of the residuals and statistically significant estimates of the factor loadings. This would indicate the goodness of the proposed factor structure.

Rotational assessment of distal femur and its relevance in total knee arthroplasty: analysis by magnetic resonance imaging

AbstractObjective:To define the distal femur rotation pattern in a Brazilian population, correlating such pattern with the one suggested by the arthroplasty instruments, and analyzing the variability of each anatomic parameter.Materials and Methods:A series of 101 magnetic resonance imaging studies were evaluated in the period between April and June 2012. The epidemiological data collection was performed with the aid of the institution's computed imaging system, and the sample included 52 male and 49 female patients. The measurements were made in the axial plane, with subsequent correlation and triangulation with the other plans. The posterior condylar line was used as a reference for angle measurements. Subsequently, the anatomical and surgical transepicondylar axes and the anteroposterior trochlear line were specified. The angles between the reference line and the studied lines were calculated with the aid of the institution's software.Results:The mean angle between the anatomical transepicondylar axis and the posterior condylar line was found to be 6.89°, ranging from 0.25° to 12°. For the surgical transepicondylar axis, the mean value was 2.89°, ranging from –2.23° (internal rotation) to 7.86°, and for the axis perpendicular to the anteroposterior trochlear line, the mean value was 4.77°, ranging from –2.09° to 12.2°.Conclusion:The anatomical transepicondylar angle showed mean values corresponding to the measurement observed in the Caucasian population. The utilized instruments are appropriate, but no anatomical parameter proved to be steady enough to be used in isolation.

Analysis of space-time environmental data in complex regions

This thesis develops a comprehensive and a flexible statistical framework for the analysis and detection of space, time and space-time clusters of environmental point data. The developed clustering methods were applied in both simulated datasets and real-world environmental phenomena; however, only the cases of forest fires in Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) and in Portugal are expounded in this document. Normally, environmental phenomena can be modelled as stochastic point processes where each event, e.g. the forest fire ignition point, is characterised by its spatial location and occurrence in time. Additionally, information such as burned area, ignition causes, landuse, topographic, climatic and meteorological features, etc., can also be used to characterise the studied phenomenon. Thereby, the space-time pattern characterisa- tion represents a powerful tool to understand the distribution and behaviour of the events and their correlation with underlying processes, for instance, socio-economic, environmental and meteorological factors. Consequently, we propose a methodology based on the adaptation and application of statistical and fractal point process measures for both global (e.g. the Morisita Index, the Box-counting fractal method, the multifractal formalism and the Ripley's K-function) and local (e.g. Scan Statistics) analysis. Many measures describing the space-time distribution of environmental phenomena have been proposed in a wide variety of disciplines; nevertheless, most of these measures are of global character and do not consider complex spatial constraints, high variability and multivariate nature of the events. Therefore, we proposed an statistical framework that takes into account the complexities of the geographical space, where phenomena take place, by introducing the Validity Domain concept and carrying out clustering analyses in data with different constrained geographical spaces, hence, assessing the relative degree of clustering of the real distribution. Moreover, exclusively to the forest fire case, this research proposes two new methodologies to defining and mapping both the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) described as the interaction zone between burnable vegetation and anthropogenic infrastructures, and the prediction of fire ignition susceptibility. In this regard, the main objective of this Thesis was to carry out a basic statistical/- geospatial research with a strong application part to analyse and to describe complex phenomena as well as to overcome unsolved methodological problems in the characterisation of space-time patterns, in particular, the forest fire occurrences. Thus, this Thesis provides a response to the increasing demand for both environmental monitoring and management tools for the assessment of natural and anthropogenic hazards and risks, sustainable development, retrospective success analysis, etc. The major contributions of this work were presented at national and international conferences and published in 5 scientific journals. National and international collaborations were also established and successfully accomplished. -- Cette thèse développe une méthodologie statistique complète et flexible pour l'analyse et la détection des structures spatiales, temporelles et spatio-temporelles de données environnementales représentées comme de semis de points. Les méthodes ici développées ont été appliquées aux jeux de données simulées autant qu'A des phénomènes environnementaux réels; nonobstant, seulement le cas des feux forestiers dans le Canton du Tessin (la Suisse) et celui de Portugal sont expliqués dans ce document. Normalement, les phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être modélisés comme des processus ponctuels stochastiques ou chaque événement, par ex. les point d'ignition des feux forestiers, est déterminé par son emplacement spatial et son occurrence dans le temps. De plus, des informations tels que la surface bru^lée, les causes d'ignition, l'utilisation du sol, les caractéristiques topographiques, climatiques et météorologiques, etc., peuvent aussi être utilisées pour caractériser le phénomène étudié. Par conséquent, la définition de la structure spatio-temporelle représente un outil puissant pour compren- dre la distribution du phénomène et sa corrélation avec des processus sous-jacents tels que les facteurs socio-économiques, environnementaux et météorologiques. De ce fait, nous proposons une méthodologie basée sur l'adaptation et l'application de mesures statistiques et fractales des processus ponctuels d'analyse global (par ex. l'indice de Morisita, la dimension fractale par comptage de boîtes, le formalisme multifractal et la fonction K de Ripley) et local (par ex. la statistique de scan). Des nombreuses mesures décrivant les structures spatio-temporelles de phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être trouvées dans la littérature. Néanmoins, la plupart de ces mesures sont de caractère global et ne considèrent pas de contraintes spatiales com- plexes, ainsi que la haute variabilité et la nature multivariée des événements. A cet effet, la méthodologie ici proposée prend en compte les complexités de l'espace géographique ou le phénomène a lieu, à travers de l'introduction du concept de Domaine de Validité et l'application des mesures d'analyse spatiale dans des données en présentant différentes contraintes géographiques. Cela permet l'évaluation du degré relatif d'agrégation spatiale/temporelle des structures du phénomène observé. En plus, exclusif au cas de feux forestiers, cette recherche propose aussi deux nouvelles méthodologies pour la définition et la cartographie des zones périurbaines, décrites comme des espaces anthropogéniques à proximité de la végétation sauvage ou de la forêt, et de la prédiction de la susceptibilité à l'ignition de feu. A cet égard, l'objectif principal de cette Thèse a été d'effectuer une recherche statistique/géospatiale avec une forte application dans des cas réels, pour analyser et décrire des phénomènes environnementaux complexes aussi bien que surmonter des problèmes méthodologiques non résolus relatifs à la caractérisation des structures spatio-temporelles, particulièrement, celles des occurrences de feux forestières. Ainsi, cette Thèse fournit une réponse à la demande croissante de la gestion et du monitoring environnemental pour le déploiement d'outils d'évaluation des risques et des dangers naturels et anthro- pogéniques. Les majeures contributions de ce travail ont été présentées aux conférences nationales et internationales, et ont été aussi publiées dans 5 revues internationales avec comité de lecture. Des collaborations nationales et internationales ont été aussi établies et accomplies avec succès.

Study of the skin anatomy with high-frequency (22 MHz) ultrasonography and histological correlation

AbstractThe present essay is aimed at getting the radiologist familiar with the basic histological skin structure, allowing for a better correlation with sonographic findings. A high-frequency (22 MHz) ultrasonography apparatus was utilized in the present study. The histological analysis was performed after the skin specimens fixation with formalin, inclusion in paraffin blocks and subsequent staining with hematoxylin-eosin. The authors present a literature review showing the relationship between sonographic and histological findings in normal cutaneous tissue, and discuss the technique for a better performance of the sonographic scan. High-frequency ultrasonography is an excellent tool for the diagnosis of different skin conditions. However, as this method is operator-dependent, it is crucial to understand the normal skin structure as well as the correlation between histological and sonographic findings.

Anatomical variations of the celiac trunk and hepatic arterial system: an analysis using multidetector computed tomography angiography

Abstract Objective: To analyze the prevalence of anatomical variations of celiac arterial trunk (CAT) branches and hepatic arterial system (HAS), as well as the CAT diameter, length and distance to the superior mesenteric artery. Materials and Methods: Retrospective, cross-sectional and predominantly descriptive study based on the analysis of multidetector computed tomography images of 60 patients. Results: The celiac trunk anatomy was normal in 90% of cases. Hepatosplenic trunk was found in 8.3% of patients, and hepatogastric trunk in 1.7%. Variation of the HAS was observed in 21.7% of cases, including anomalous location of the right hepatic artery in 8.3% of cases, and of the left hepatic artery, in 5%. Also, cases of joint relocation of right and left hepatic arteries, and trifurcation of the proper hepatic artery were observed, respectively, in 3 (5%) and 2 (3.3%) patients. Mean length and caliber of the CAT were 2.3 cm and 0.8 cm, respectively. Mean distance between CAT and superior mesenteric artery was 1.2 cm (standard deviation = 4.08). A significant correlation was observed between CAT diameter and length, and CAT diameter and distance to superior mesenteric artery. Conclusion: The pattern of CAT variations and diameter corroborate the majority of the literature data. However, this does not happen in relation to the HAS.

Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.