Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. Résumé français: Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de marchés de prédictions pour l'évaluation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux capacités des marchés de prédictions à évaluer des problématiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et à leur efficacité par rapport à des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, développant itérativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les évaluant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que théoriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montré que les marchés de prédictions étaient adaptés pour correctement apprécier des problématiques complexes. Nous avons également développé une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces marchés dans des contextes d'évaluation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montré que ces marchés pouvaient résoudre une partie des problèmes liés à la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et développement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les résultats d'une méthode de décision multi-critère et d'un marché de prédiction, nous avons montré que ces derniers étaient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des résultats semblables. Nous proposons également un cadre de comparaison des méthodes d'évaluation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des marchés de prédiction et devrait permettre d'accélérer leur adoption par les entreprises.

Chemical and structural characterization of soil humic substances under agroforestry and conventional systems

Studies have proven that the agroforestry systems in the semi-arid region of the State of Ceará, Brazil, induce an increase in soil organic C levels. Notwithstanding, there is no information if this increase also results in qualitative changes in different pools of soil organic matter. The objective of this study was to verify the possible chemical and structural alterations in fulvic and humic acids of a Luvisol in areas adopting agroforestry, traditional intensive cultivation and native forest in a long-term experiment conducted in the semi-arid region of Ceará State, Brazil. The study was conducted in an experimental area of the National Goat Research Center (Embrapa) in Sobral, CE. The following treatments were evaluated: agrosilvopasture (AGP), silvopasture (SILV), intensive cultivation under fallow (ICF), and areas with native forest (NF). Soil fulvic and humic acids fractions were extracted from the 0-6 and 6-12 cm layers and characterized by elemental composition, thermogravimetry and infrared spectroscopy analyses. The elemental composition analysis of humic acids confirmed the data found for fulvic acids, showing reduction in the C, H and N levels, followed by an increase in O contents in the AGP and ICF treatments over SILV and NF. In all treatments, except to SILV in the 0-6 cm layer, the percentage of mass loss was highest (300-600 °C) for humic acids in the thermally most stable region. Despite the similarity between infrared spectra, soil fulvic acids in the SILV treatment extracted from 6-12 cm depth decrease the absorption bands at 1708 and 1408 cm-1 followed by an increase in the absorption band at 1608 cm-1 attributed to aromatic C=C groups. This behavior suggests an increase in the aromatic character of the structure. The AGP and ICF treatments, which increase the soil tilling, favored the maintenance of humic substances with a more aromatic character in the soil than SILV and NF. The less aromatic humic substances in the SILV treatment resulted in an increase of exchange sites of soil organic matter, indicating improved nutrient cycling and maintenance of productivity in the system.

Virtual anthropology: A comparison between the performance of conventional X-ray and MDCT in investigating the trabecular structure of long bones.

Recently, modern cross-sectional imaging techniques such as multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) have pioneered post mortem investigations, especially in forensic medicine. Such approaches can also be used to investigate bones non-invasively for anthropological purposes. Long bones are often examined in forensic cases because they are frequently discovered and transferred to medico-legal departments for investigation. To estimate their age, the trabecular structure must be examined. This study aimed to compare the performance of MDCT with conventional X-rays to investigate the trabecular structure of long bones. Fifty-two dry bones (24 humeri and 28 femora) from anthropological collections were first examined by conventional X-ray, and then by MDCT. Trabecular structure was evaluated by seven observers (two experienced and five inexperienced in anthropology) who analyzed images obtained by radiological methods. Analyses contained the measurement of one quantitative parameter (caput diameter of humerus and femur) and staging the trabecular structure of each bone. Preciseness of each technique was indicated by describing areas of trabecular destruction and particularities of the bones, such as pathological changes. Concerning quantitative parameters, the measurements demonstrate comparable results for the MDCT and conventional X-ray techniques. In contrast, the overall inter-observer reliability of the staging was low with MDCT and conventional X-ray. Reliability increased significantly when only the results of the staging performed by the two experienced observers were compared, particularly regarding the MDCT analysis. Our results also indicate that MDCT appears to be better suited to a detailed examination of the trabecular structure. In our opinion, MDCT is an adequate tool with which to examine the trabecular structure of long bones. However, adequate methods should be developed or existing methods should be adapted to MDCT.

Modeling a processive molecular motor: the conventional kinesin

We present a model that allows for the derivation of the experimentally accesible observables: spatial steps, mean velocity, stall force, useful power, efficiency and randomness, etc. as a function of the [adenosine triphosphate] concentration and an external load F. The model presents a minimum of adjustable parameters and the theoretical predictions compare well with the available experimental results.

Audit report of the accompanying Schedule of Debt Service and Coverage for Iowa State University of Science and Technology as of February 10, 2012 for the Athletic Facilities Revenue Bond Funds

Audit report of the accompanying Schedule of Debt Service and Coverage for Iowa State University of Science and Technology as of February 10, 2012 for the Athletic Facilities Revenue Bond Funds

Comparison between detailed digital and conventional soil maps of an area with complex geology

Since different pedologists will draw different soil maps of a same area, it is important to compare the differences between mapping by specialists and mapping techniques, as for example currently intensively discussed Digital Soil Mapping. Four detailed soil maps (scale 1:10.000) of a 182-ha sugarcane farm in the county of Rafard, São Paulo State, Brazil, were compared. The area has a large variation of soil formation factors. The maps were drawn independently by four soil scientists and compared with a fifth map obtained by a digital soil mapping technique. All pedologists were given the same set of information. As many field expeditions and soil pits as required by each surveyor were provided to define the mapping units (MUs). For the Digital Soil Map (DSM), spectral data were extracted from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery as well as six terrain attributes from the topographic map of the area. These data were summarized by principal component analysis to generate the map designs of groups through Fuzzy K-means clustering. Field observations were made to identify the soils in the MUs and classify them according to the Brazilian Soil Classification System (BSCS). To compare the conventional and digital (DSM) soil maps, they were crossed pairwise to generate confusion matrices that were mapped. The categorical analysis at each classification level of the BSCS showed that the agreement between the maps decreased towards the lower levels of classification and the great influence of the surveyor on both the mapping and definition of MUs in the soil map. The average correspondence between the conventional and DSM maps was similar. Therefore, the method used to obtain the DSM yielded similar results to those obtained by the conventional technique, while providing additional information about the landscape of each soil, useful for applications in future surveys of similar areas.

Agency Fact Sheet, Department of Information Technology, FY2002

This document produced by the Iowa Department of Administrative Services has been developed to provide a multitude of information about executive branch agencies/department on a single sheet of paper. The facts provides general information, contact information, workforce data, leave and benefits information and affirmative action data.

Agency Fact Sheet, Department of Information Technology, FY2003

This document produced by the Iowa Department of Administrative Services has been developed to provide a multitude of information about executive branch agencies/department on a single sheet of paper. The facts provides general information, contact information, workforce data, leave and benefits information and affirmative action data.

Comparison of digestion methods to determine heavy metals in fertilizers

The lack of a standard method to regulate heavy metal determination in Brazilian fertilizers and the subsequent use of several digestion methods have produced variations in the results, hampering interpretation. Thus, the aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of three digestion methods for determination of metals such as Cd, Ni, Pb, and Cr in fertilizers. Samples of 45 fertilizers marketed in northeastern Brazil were used. A fertilizer sample with heavy metal contents certified by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was used as control. The following fertilizers were tested: rock phosphate; organo-mineral fertilizer with rock phosphate; single superphosphate; triple superphosphate; mixed N-P-K fertilizer; and fertilizer with micronutrients. The substances were digested according to the method recommended by the Ministry for Agriculture, Livestock and Supply of Brazil (MAPA) and by the two methods 3051A and 3052 of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). By the USEPA method 3052, higher portions of the less soluble metals such as Ni and Pb were recovered, indicating that the conventional digestion methods for fertilizers underestimate the total amount of these elements. The results of the USEPA method 3051A were very similar to those of the method currently used in Brazil (Brasil, 2006). The latter is preferable, in view of the lower cost requirement for acids, a shorter digestion period and greater reproducibility.

Report on a review of selected application controls over the Iowa State University of Science and Technology Facilities Planning and Management - Facilities Administrative Management Information System for the period of April 18, 2011 through May 16, 2011

Report on a review of selected application controls over the Iowa State University of Science and Technology Facilities Planning and Management - Facilities Administrative Management Information System for the period of April 18, 2011 through May 16, 2011

Ultrastructural changes of the internal limiting membrane removed during indocyanine green assisted peeling versus conventional surgery for idiopathic macular epiretinal membrane

Résumé : Introduction : L'objectif de cette étude était d'une part d'évaluer les caractéristiques histologiques des fragments cellulaires rétiniens attachés à la limitante interne après vitrectomie et pelage d'une membrane epirétinienne, et d'autre part de mettre en évidence des différences histologiques entre les cas opérés avec ou sans l'aide d'ICG dilué dans du glucose 5%. Méthodes Nous avons examiné rétrospectivement l'histologie de 88 spécimens de membranes épimaculaires contenant la limitante interne de la rétine, qui ont été enlevés chirurgicalement entre 1995 et 2003. L'analyse histologique a centré principalement l'attention sur la présence et les caractéristiques des fragments cellulaires rétiniens attachés à la limitante interne. L'analyse statistique a comparé les résultats entre le groupe I (chirurgie conventionnelle sans l'aide de l'ICG) et le groupe II (chirurgie à l'aide de l'ICG). Résultats Soixante et onze patients ont eu une vitrectomie sans l'aide de l'ICG (groupe I) et 17 avec l'aide de l'ICG (groupe II). Le nombre de débris de cellules de Müller à la surface rétinienne de la limitante interne était plus important dans le groupe I (sans ICG) que dans le groupe II (avec ICG) (40.8% versus 11.8% ; p = 0.024). Des larges fragments cellulaires rétiniens attachés à la limitante interne ont été plus fréquemment observés dans le groupe I (sans ICG) que dans le groupe II (avec ICG) (63.4% versus 23.5%; p= 0.003). Dans cinq (7%) cas du groupe I, de gros éléments cellulaires rétiniens ont été mis en évidence (des axones neuraux ou des vaisseaux sanguins). De tels éléments n'ont pas été retrouvés dans les spécimens du groupe II (avec ICG). Conclusions L'utilisation de l'ICG dilué dans du glucose 5% pour faciliter le pelage d'une membrane épimaculaire et notamment l'ablation de la limitante interne de la rétine semble diminuer de manière significative le nombre et la taille des débris des cellules de Muller adhérents à la face rétinienne de la membrane limitante interne de la rétine. Cette observation suggère que l'utilisation per-opératoire d'ICG dilué dans du glucose 5% facilite l'ablation de la limitante interne pendant la chirurgie de la membrane epirétinienne en diminuant l'adhérence de la limitante interne à la rétine.