Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Cervicogenic headache: Locus of control and success of treatment

Background.-A number of extraneous factors have been implicated in the effectiveness of treatment of headache, including patient beliefs about aspects of the treatment or persons delivering the treatment. Objective.-The concept of external locus of control for headaches refers to patients with a high level of belief that headache and relief are influenced primarily by health care professionals. The aim of this study was to examine whether external locus of control is associated with a reduction in frequency of cervicogenic headaches among patients treated by a physiotherapist. Design.-A recent randomized controlled trial of the effectiveness of physiotherapy among 200 patients with headache enabled a test of this relationship. Treatment consisted of manipulative therapy, therapeutic exercise, or a combination of the 2. Analysis of relative change in headache frequency was conducted after 6 weeks of treatment and at 3- and 12-month follow-up appointments. Results.-Results of the analysis indicated that participants with relatively high external Headache-Specific Locus of Control scores were more likely to achieve a reduction in headache frequency if they received the combined manipulative therapy and exercise therapy, compared with those who received no treatment. This was not determined for the group who received manipulative therapy, which is a treatment received passively by the patient. Conclusions.-The interpretation of these findings is considered in the context of nongeneralization to the other physiotherapy treatment groups and sustained reduction in headache frequency following withdrawal of treatment. The pattern of findings suggests that characteristics of the therapy were more pertinent than characteristics of the therapist.

Role of China in the quest to define and control severe acute respiratory syndrome

China holds the key to solving many questions crucial to global control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The disease appears to have originated in Guangdong Province, and the causative agent, SARS coronavirus, is likely to have originated from an animal host, perhaps sold in public markets. Epidemiologic findings, integral to defining an animal-human linkage, may be confirmed by laboratory studies; once animal host(s) are confirmed, interventions may be needed to prevent further animal-to-human transmission. Community seroprevalence studies may help determine the basis for the decline in disease incidence in Guangdong Province after February 2002. China will also be able to contribute key data about how the causative agent is transmitted and how it is evolving, as well as identifying pivotal factors influencing disease outcome.

A randomised controlled trial of methadone maintenance treatment versus wait list control in an Australian prison system

Objectives: The aim was to determine whether methadone maintenance treatment reduced heroin use, syringe sharing and HIV or hepatitis C incidence among prisoners. Methods: All eligible prisoners seeking drug treatment were randomised to methadone or a waitlist control group from 1997 to 1998 and followed up after 4 months. Heroin use was measured by hair analysis and self report; drugs used and injected and syringe sharing were measured by self report. Hepatitis C and HIV incidence was measured by serology. Results: Of 593 eligible prisoners, 382 (64%) were randomised to MMT (n = 191) or control (n = 191). 129 treated and 124 control subjects were followed up at 5 months. Heroin use was significantly lower among treated than control subjects at follow up. Treated subjects reported lower levels of drug injection and syringe sharing at follow up. There was no difference in HIV or hepatitis C incidence. Conclusions: Consideration should be given to the introduction of prison methadone programs particular where community based programs exist. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Control of familial and renal cardiac diseases in English bull terriers: How to repair a damaged breed?

Control recommendations are presented for four genetic or familial diseases that cause significant morbidity and mortality in affected English Bull Terriers. Bull Terrier polycystic kidney disease is an autosomal dominant disease diagnosed by detecting a minimum of three renal cysts, with cysts present in both kidneys, and similarly affected family members to confirm the inherited nature of the cysts. Bull Terrier hereditary nephritis is an autosomal dominant disease diagnosed in otherwise normal animals with urinary protein: creatinine ratios persistently >0.3 and no significant urinary sediment, a family history of the disease, and characteristic glomerular basement membrane lesions. Mitral valve myxomatous degeneration and left ventricular outflow tract obstruction in Bull Terriers are familial diseases diagnosed by auscultating characteristic murmurs in affected animals. Excluding animals with these clinical signs from the breeding pool will reduce the prevalence rates of these diseases, however maintenance of an effective population size is also important. Providing breeders with information on genetics, including the risks associated with inbreeding and the benefits of outcrossing, is likely to improve canine breeding practices, thus increasing fitness and fecundity of these purebred dogs.

The effect of volition on the stability of bimanual coordination

The authors investigated how the intention to passively perform a behavior and the intention to persist with a behavior impact upon the spatial and temporal properties of bimanual coordination. Participants (N = 30) were asked to perform a bimanual coordination task that demanded the continuous rhythmic extension-flexion of the wrists. The frequency of movement was scaled by an auditory metronome beat from 1.5 Hz, increasing to 3.25 Hz in .25-Hz increments. The task was further defined by the requirement that the movements be performed initially in a prescribed pattern of coordination (in-phase or antiphase) while the participants assumed one of two different intentional states: stay with the prescribed pattern should it become unstable or do not intervene should the pattern begin to change. Transitions away from the initially prescribed pattern were observed only in trials conducted in the antiphase mode of coordination. The time at which the antiphase pattern of coordination became unstable was not found to be influenced by the intentional state. In addition, the do-not-intervene set led to a switch to an in-phase pattern of coordination whereas the stay set led to phase wandering. Those findings are discussed within the framework of a dynamic account of bimanual coordination.

Integrated control of nitrate recirculation and external carbon addition in a predenitrification system

The integrated control of nitrate recirculation and external carbon addition in a predenitrification biological wastewater treatment system is studied. The proposed control structure consists of four feedback control loops, which manipulate the nitrate recirculation and the carbon dosage flows in a highly coordinated manner such that the consumption of external carbon is minimised while the nitrate discharge limits (based on both grab and composite samples) are met. The control system requires the measurement of the nitrate concentrations at the end of both the anoxic and the aerobic zones. Distinct from ordinary control systems, which typically minimise the variation in the controlled variables, the proposed control system essentially maximises the diurnal variation of the effluent nitrate concentration and through this maximises the use of influent COD for denitrification, thus minimising the requirement for external carbon source. Simulation studies using a commonly accepted simulation benchmark show that the controlled system consistently achieves the designated effluent quality with minimum costs.

Combining nonthermal technologies to control foodborne microorganisms

Novel nonthermal processes, such as high hydrostatic pressure (HHP), pulsed electric fields (PEFs), ionizing radiation and ultrasonication, are able to inactivate microorganisms at ambient or sublethal temperatures. Many of these processes require very high treatment intensities, however, to achieve adequate microbial destruction in low-acid foods. Combining nonthermal processes with conventional preservation methods enhances their antimicrobial effect so that lower process intensities can be used. Combining two or more nonthermal processes can also enhance microbial inactivation and allow the use of lower individual treatment intensities. For conventional preservation treatments, optimal microbial control is achieved through the hurdle concept, with synergistic effects resulting from different components of the microbial cell being targeted simultaneously. The mechanisms of inactivation by nonthermal processes are still unclear; thus, the bases of synergistic combinations remain speculative. This paper reviews literature on the antimicrobial efficiencies of nonthermal processes combined with conventional and novel nonthermal technologies. Where possible, the proposed mechanisms of synergy is mentioned. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A role for pectin in the control of cell expansion

Uptake of nutrients and water depends on the growth of roots through elongation of individual cells near the. root tip. Many of the numerous components of Type I primary cell walls, those of dicotyledons and monocotyledons other than grasses (Poaceae), have been determined, and many hypotheses have been proposed for the control of cell expansion. This important aspect of plant growth still needs elucidation, however. A model is proposed in which pectin, which occurs as a calcium (Ca) pectate gel between the load-bearing cellulose microfibrils and xyloglucan (XG) chains, controls the rate at which cells expand. It is considered that the increasing tension generated by the expanding cell is transmitted to interlocked XG chains and cellulose microfibrils. The resulting deformation of the embedded Ca pectate gel elicits the excretion of protons from the cytoplasm, possibly via compounds such as cell wall-associated kinases, that weakens the Ca pectate gel, permitting slippage of XG molecules through the action of expansin. Further slippage is prevented by deformation of the pectic gel, proton diffusion, and the transfer of residual tension to adjacent XG chains. Evidence for this model is based on the effects of pH, Ca, and aluminum (Al) on root elongation and on the reactions of these cations with Ca pectate. This model allows for genetic selection of plants and adaptation of individual plants to root environmental conditions.

Learning about life and death in early childhood

Inagaki and Hatano (2002) have argued that young children initially understand biological phenomena in terms of vitalism, a mode of construal in which life or life-force is the central causal-explanatory concept. This study investigated the development of vitalistic reasoning in young children's concepts of life, the human body and death. Sixty preschool children between the ages of 3 years, 7 months and 5 years, 11 months participated. All children were initially given structured interviews to assess their knowledge of (1) human body function and (2) death. From this sample 40 children in the Training group were taught about the human body and how it functions to maintain life. The Control group (n = 20) received no training. All 60 children were subsequently reassessed on their knowledge of human body function and death. Results from the initial interviews indicated that young children who spontaneously appealed to vitalistic concepts in reasoning about human body functioning were also more sophisticated in their understanding of death. Results from the posttraining interviews showed that children readily learned to adopt a vitalistic approach to human body functioning, and that this learning coincided with significant development in their understanding of human body function, and of death. The overall pattern of results supports the claim that the acquisition of a vitalistic causal-explanatory framework serves to structure children's concepts and facilitates learning in the domain of biology. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Digitally-implemented naturally sampled PWM suitable for multilevel converter control

For dynamic closed loop control of a multilevel converter with a low pulse number (ratio of switching frequency to synthesized fundamental), natural sampled pulse-width modulation (PWM) is the best form of modulation. Natural sampling does not introduce distortion or a delayed response to the modulating signal. However previous natural sampled PWM implementations have generally been analog. For a modular multilevel converter, a digital implementation has advantages of accuracy and flexibility. Re-sampled uniform PWM is a novel digital modulation technique which approaches the performance of natural PWM. Both hardware and software implementations for a five level multilevel converter phase are presented, demonstrating the improvement over uniform PWM.

A new wavelet-based adaptive method for solving population balance equations

A new wavelet-based adaptive framework for solving population balance equations (PBEs) is proposed in this work. The technique is general, powerful and efficient without the need for prior assumptions about the characteristics of the processes. Because there are steeply varying number densities across a size range, a new strategy is developed to select the optimal order of resolution and the collocation points based on an interpolating wavelet transform (IWT). The proposed technique has been tested for size-independent agglomeration, agglomeration with a linear summation kernel and agglomeration with a nonlinear kernel. In all cases, the predicted and analytical particle size distributions (PSDs) are in excellent agreement. Further work on the solution of the general population balance equations with nucleation, growth and agglomeration and the solution of steady-state population balance equations will be presented in this framework. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A yield architecture framework to explain adaptation of pearl millet to environmental stress

Functional knowledge of the physiological basis of crop adaptation to stress is a prerequisite for exploiting specific adaptation to stress environments in breeding programs. This paper presents an analysis of yield components for pearl millet, to explain the specific adaptation of local landraces to stress environments in Rajasthan, India. Six genotypes, ranging from high-tillering traditional landraces to low-tillering open-pollinated modern cultivars, were grown in 20 experiments, covering a range of nonstress and drought stress patterns. In each experiment, yield components (particle number, grain number, 100 grain mass) were measured separately for main shoots, basal tillers, and nodal tillers. Under optimum conditions, landraces had a significantly lower grain yield than the cultivars, but no significant differences were observed at yield levels around 1 ton ha(-1). This genotype x environment interaction for grain yield was due to a difference in yield strategy, where landraces aimed at minimising the risk of a crop failure under stress conditions, and modem cultivars aimed at maximising yield potential under optimum conditions. A key aspect of the adaptation of landraces was the small size of the main shoot panicle, as it minimised (1) the loss of productive tillers during stem elongation; (2) the delay in anthesis if mid-season drought occurs; and (3) the reduction in panicle productivity of the basal tillers under stress. In addition, a low investment in structural panicle weight, relative to vegetative crop growth rate, promoted the production of nodal tillers, providing a mechanism to compensate for reduced basal tiller productivity if stress occurred around anthesis. A low maximum 100 grain mass also ensured individual grain mass was little affected by environmental conditions. The strategy of the high-tillering landraces carries a yield penalty under optimum conditions, but is expected to minimise the risk of a crop failure, particularly if mid-season drought stress occurs. The yield architecture of low-tillering varieties, by contrast, will be suited to end-of-season drought stress, provided anthesis is early. Application of the above adaptation mechanisms into a breeding program could enable the identification of plant types that match the prevalent stress patterns in the target environments. (C) 2003 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.