Mental health and neuroscience. A perspective from the magazine market

Mental health awareness has been rising worldwide, motivated by its social and economic costs. Despite the investment in research in neuroscience in the recent years, little is known about the underlying mechanisms in the brain that are correlated with psychiatric conditions. This project, through two feature articles suitable to be published in magazines, provides perspectives onto mental health research. First it presents an example where psychiatry joins forces with neuroscience and computer science in an interdisciplinary effort to improve the life of those affected by mental disorders. The second article gathers opinions which claim that mental health research priorities should be set by patients themselves, or even that people with lived experience of mental health issues should have an active role in that research. This project was planned and researched while I was an Erasmus student at Nottingham Trent University, in the United Kingdom.

Universal banks and corporate control: Evidence from the global syndicated loan market

We investigate the effects of bank control over borrower firms whether by representation on boards of directors or by the holding of shares through bank asset management divisions. Using a large sample of syndicated loans, we find that banks are more likely to act as lead arrangers in loans when they exert some control over the borrower firm. Bank-firm governance links are associated with higher loan spreads during the 2003-2006 credit boom, but lower spreads during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Additionally, these links mitigate credit rationing effects during the crisis. The results are robust to several methods to correct for the endogeneity of the bank- firm governance link. Our evidence, consistent with intertemporal smoothing of loan rates, suggests there are costs and benefits from banks’ involvement in firm governance.

Share and Strife - The Strait of Melaka and the Portuguese (16th and 17th centuries)

The Strait of Melaka is the longest strait in the world, stretching for about 800 km from the northern tip of Sumatra to Singapore. It exhibits a dual character like no other, being simultaneously a privileged linking passage of two seas and two knots of human civilization – India and China – and a »bottleneck« that constrains the maritime connections between them. Today, the latter aspect is globally dominant. The strait is considered and analysed mostly as an obstacle rather than a linking point: how to reach China from the West or elsewhere is no longer an issue, but securing the vital flows that pass into the strait on a daily basis undoubtedly is. Accidents, natural catastrophes, political local crises or terrorist attacks are permanent dangers that could cut this umbilical cord of world trade and jeopardize a particularly sensitive and vulnerable area; piracy and pollution are the most common local threats and vulnerabilities.

Historic and potential technology transition paths of grid battery storage: Co-evolution of energy grid, electric mobility and batteries

Scarcity of fuels, changes in environmental policy and in society increased the interest in generating electric energy from renewable energy sources (RES) for a sustainable energy supply in the future. The main problem of RES as solar and wind energy, which represent a main pillar of this transition, is that they cannot supply constant power output. This results inter alia in an increased demand of backup technologies as batteries to assure electricity system safety. The diffusion of energy storage technologies is highly dependent on the energy system and transport transition pathways which might lead to a replacement or reconfiguration of embedded socio-technical practices and regimes (by creating new standards or dominant designs, changing regulations, infrastructure and user patterns). The success of this technology is dependent on hardly predictable future technical advances, actor preferences, development of competing technologies and designs, diverging interests of actors, future cost efficiencies, environmental performance, the evolution of market demand and design and evolution of our society.

On the labor share the long-run equilibrium and its adjustment process

This research computes an Equilibrium Labor Share using a VECM for a panel of 19 countries, analyzes what determines the speed at which the labor share adjusts towards that equilibrium and decomposes this adjustment in terms of real wages and employment. Results suggest that the speed at which a country adjusts decreases with employment protection legislation and labor taxes. Most countries’ labor shares adjustment is made through real wages changes instead of changing employment, suggesting that wage moderation policies may play an important role on the adjustment process without harming employment. Keywords: Equilibrium

A wave of change: Labor market and social security impacts of the EU refugee inflow

The recent massive inflow of refugees to the European Union (EU) raises a number of unanswered questions on the economic impact of this phenomenon. To examine these questions, we constructed an overlapping-generations model that describes the evolution of the skill premium and of the welfare benefit level in relevant European countries, in the aftermath of an inflow of asylum-seekers. In our simulation, relative wages of skilled workers increase between 8% and 11% in the period of the inflow; their subsequent time path is dependent on the initial skill premium. The entry of migrants creates a fiscal surplus of about 8%, which can finance higher welfare benefits in the subsequent periods. These effects are weaker in a scenario where refugees do not fully integrate into the labor market.

On the labor share the long-run equilibrium and its adjustment process

This research computes an Equilibrium Labor Share using a VECM for a panel of 19 countries, analyzes what determines the speed at which the labor share adjusts towards that equilibrium and decomposes this adjustment in terms of real wages and employment. Results suggest that the speed at which a country adjusts decreases with employment protection legislation and labor taxes. Most countries’ labor shares adjustment is made through real wages changes instead of changing employment, suggesting that wage moderation policies may play an important role on the adjustment process without harming employment.

Analysis of a controversial decision process: the case of the pumped hydro storage power plant Atdorf in Germany

Based on the report for the unit “Métodos Interactivos de Participação e Decisão A” (Interactive methods of participation and decision A), coordinated by Prof. Lia Maldonado Teles de Vasconcelos and Prof. Nuno Miguel Ribeiro Videira Costa. This unit was provided for the PhD Program in Technology Assessment in 2015/2016.

What do broadband consumers want? Design and execution of a questionnaire on demand for bundled services on the Portuguese telecomunications market

The report addresses the question of what are the preferences of broadband consumers on the Portuguese telecommunication market. A triple play bundle is being investigated. The discrete choice analysis, adopted in the study, base on 110 responses, mainly from NOVA students. The data for the analysis was collected via manually designed on-line survey. The results show that the price attribute is relatively the most important one while the television attribute is being overlooked in the decision making process. Main effects examined in the research are robust. In addition, "extras" components are being tested in terms of users' preferences.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Predicting market movement with Artificial Neural Networks

This paper presents an application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to the prediction of stock market direction in the US. Using a multilayer perceptron neural network and a backpropagation algorithm for the training process, the model aims at learning the hidden patterns in the daily movement of the S&P500 to correctly identify if the market will be in a Trend Following or Mean Reversion behavior. The ANN is able to produce a successful investment strategy which outperforms the buy and hold strategy, but presents instability in its overall results which compromises its practical application in real life investment decisions.

Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

MarketOpolis: A market simulation based on investors decisions

This study aims to replicate Apple’s stock market movement by modeling major investment profiles and investors. The present model recreates a live exchange to forecast any predictability in stock price variation, knowing how investors act when it concerns investment decisions. This methodology is particularly relevant if, just by observing historical prices and knowing the tendencies in other players’ behavior, risk-adjusted profits can be made. Empirical research made in the academia shows that abnormal returns are hardly consistent without a clear idea of who is in the market in a given moment and the correspondent market shares. Therefore, even when knowing investors’ individual investment profiles, it is not clear how they affect aggregate markets.