Participation by place-based community organisations in local development: case studies from East Cork

The past two decades have witnessed concerted efforts by theorists and policy-makers to place civil society at the centre of social, economic and environmental development processes. To this end, policies grounded in a Third Way approach have sought to forge stronger linkages between the state and voluntary community-based organisations. Concepts such as active citizenship, social capital, partnership and sustainability have underpinned this political philosophy, which reflects a movement in development theory and political science away from notions of state-led development and unfettered neo-liberalism. In the Irish context, a series of initiatives have given expression to this new policy agenda, the foremost amongst them the publication of a White Paper in 2000. New local governance structures and development schemes have multiplied since the early 1990s, while the physical planning system has also been modified. All this has taken place against the backdrop of unprecedented economic development and social change precipitated by the ‘Celtic Tiger’.This thesis examines the interaction between community organisations, state institutions and other actors in development processes in East Cork. It focuses upon place-based community organisations, who seek to represent the interests of their particular localities. A case study approach is employed to explore the realpolitik of local development and to gauge the extent to which grassroots community organisations wield influence in determining the development of their communities. The study concludes that the transfer of decision-making power to community organisations has been more illusory than real and that, in practical terms, such groups remain marginal in the circuits of power. However, the situation of community organisations operating in different geographical locales cannot be reduced to an overarching theoretical logic. The case studies show that the modus operandi of community groups varies considerably and can be influenced by specific local geographies, events and personalities.

The ecology of the European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) in rural Ireland

This study on the ecology of Irish hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) has provided information on detection techniques, home range, habitat selection, hedgehog prey, nesting, courtship, genetics, road mortality, parasites, ageing and morphology of this species. Data were obtained from a focal study area in rural Cork, in which 24 radio tagged hedgehogs were monitored from June 2008 to June 2010. Further data were obtained through road kill surveys and the collection of hedgehog carcasses from around Ireland. Hedgehogs of both sexes were found to display philopatry. Habitat was not used in proportion to its availability, but certain habitats were selected and a similar pattern of habitat selection was evident in successive years. Hedgehogs preferred arable land in September and October and, unlike studies elsewhere, were observed to forage in the centre of fields. Badgers were regularly seen at the study site and did not appear to negatively affect hedgehogs’ use of the area. Instead the intra- and inter-habitat distribution of hedgehogs was closely correlated with that of their potential prey. Male hedgehogs had a mean annual home range of 56 ha and females 16.5 ha, although monthly home ranges were much more conservative. Male home range peaked during the breeding season (April-July) and a peak in road deaths was observed during these months. The majority of road kill (54%) were individuals of one year old or less, however, individuals were found up to eight and nine years of age. Genetic analysis showed a distinct lack of genetic variation amongst Irish hedgehogs and suggests colonisation by a small number of individuals. The ectoparasites, Archaeopsylla erinacei, Ixodes hexagonus and Ixodes canisuga were recorded in addition to the endoparasites Crenosoma striatum and Capillaria erinacei. In light of the reported decline in many areas of the hedgehogs’ range, it is a species of conservation concern, and this is the first study examining the ecology of the hedgehog in Ireland.

The influence of neoliberal thought on contemporary politics: an examination of the interrelationships between ideological hegemony, neoliberal thought and contemporary politics

This thesis critically assesses the impact of neoliberal ideology on liberal thought and contemporary politics specifically examining the question, To what extent has neoliberalism, as elucidated originally by Hayek affected change in contemporary politics? This question is crucial to understanding the nature, role, influence and impact of neoliberal ideas. This investigation required a broad engagement with the literature, identifying and discussing the relationships within neoliberalism allowing a clearer understanding of the role of ideas in neoliberalism’s continuing hegemony. The methodological approach adopted a social constructivist character that encompassed an individual centric emphasis, acknowledging the breadth and complexity of Neoliberalization through the use of interpretive repertoires. The initial chapters examine the ideational process and the role of particular understanding in motivating political conduct. In this context of the transfer of ideas through their everyday resonance eventually becoming ‘stubborn social facts’ (Habermas 2006:413) is highlighted. Later chapters discuss the historical and economic context of Neoliberalization focussing on the role of the hegemon and its influence, outlining and evaluating the contribution of Hayek to liberal thought. The penultimate chapter deals with the contemporary situation and the irony associated with Hayek’s original ideas. Concluding, several findings emerged contributing by combining available knowledge in a uniquely fresh way and generating originality by linking old ideas, new ideas and new facts. The results are grouped as, - Pragmatic, recognising that political pragmatism trumps ideological aspiration where liberal democratic processes require politicians are held to account. - Realistic, recognising the contrast and irony between political action and ideological insight reflected in the operationalization of neoliberalism. - General, recognising Hayek’s on-going but increasingly indirect influence. The thesis finishes with a short aside on ideational change within the context of the current crisis and advocates an introspective approach that includes entrepreneurial spirit, good conscience and duty as part of future deliberations.

Women's contribution to the development of the English novel: 1621-1818

Women's contribution to literature is no arbitrary or artificial distinction. However much the reformer may welcome, or the conservative lament, the growth of a harmonious sharing of ideals between men and women, that growth has been a hard-fought struggle. It has been an escape from a prison, which, when it did not entirely shut out the greater world, at least enclosed a little world of education meant for women, literature adapted to the supposed limitations of their intellect, and a course of action prescribed by the other sex. To show how the literary efforts of women developed and justified their claims to free activity is the purpose of this thesis.

Max Stirner's relevance to contemporary philosophy: a critical analysis

The aim of this dissertation is to revive the 19th-century thinker Max Stirner’s thought through a critical reexamination of his mistaken legacy as a ‘political’ thinker. The reading of Stirner that I present is one of an ontological thinker, spurred on as much—if not more—by the contents of Hegel’s Phenomenology of Spirit as it is the radical roots that Hegel unintentionally planted. In the first chapter, the role of language in Stirner’s thought is examined, and the problems to which his conception of language seem to give rise are addressed. The second chapter looks at Stirner’s purportedly ‘anarchistic’ politics and finds the ‘anarchist’ reading of Stirner misguided. Rather than being a ‘political’ anarchist, it is argued that we ought to understand Stirner as advocating a sort of ‘ontological’ anarchism in which the very existence of authority is questioned. In the third chapter, I look at the political ramifications of Stirner’s ontology as well as the critique of liberalism contained within it, and argue that the politics implicit in his philosophy shares more in common with the tradition of political realism than it does anarchism. The fourth chapter is dedicated to an examination of Stirner’s anti-humanism, which is concluded to be much different than the ‘anti-humanisms’ associated with other, more famous thinkers, such as Foucault and Heidegger. In the fifth and final chapter, I provide an answer to the question(s) of how, if, and to what extent Friedrich Nietzsche was influenced by Stirner. It is concluded that the complete lack of evidence that Nietzsche ever read Stirner is proof enough to dismiss accusations of plagiarism on Nietzsche’s part, thus emphasizing the originality and singularity of both thinkers.

Health care and neoliberalism in Ireland: withholding the gift and corrupting the social contract

The health of a nation tells much about the nature of a social contract between citizen and state. The way that health care is organised, and the degree to which it is equitably accessible, constitutes a manifestation of the effects of moments and events in that country's history. Using four case studies, this thesis uses a historical genealogical approach to explain the evolution of Ireland's particular version of health care provision. The total social fact of the gift relationship, central to all human relations, will be used to form a theoretical and conceptual framework on which to build an analysis of Ireland's health and welfare conditions. Additionally, social contract theory will enable an examination of the role of solidarity in relation to social expectations around health care provision. Through the analysis of these cases, the complex matrix of the influential forces that have shaped current conditions are exposed and revealed, enabling a critical understanding of the extent of acquiescence to the inequitable system that arguably exists. The vulnerability of citizens in need of care to the external and global effects of market forces and neoliberalism, therefore, becomes central to any argument for state-provided health and welfare. The hegemony of such forces can be seen to influence the manner in which the idea of individual self-reliance, in place of collective solidarity, is conceptualised and subsequently infiltrated into a range of aspects of the social world. For example, the particular discourse of the market and of economic concerns succeeds in shaping understandings of responsibilities around central areas of health and welfare. Similarly the 'possessor principle' can be seen to be misplaced within the context of health and social care, but yet has become normalised within this discourse. Within this matrix of complex influencing factors, the welfare state struggles to impose a balance between market values and social values. Responsibilities of the state to support and compensate its citizens for the ills of the market have become devalued, as the core values of classical liberalism have become distorted beyond recognition, leaving instead bare neoliberal concerns. This thesis traces the genealogical origins of this transition within the recent history of Irish health care and thereby reveals the embedding of individualism in place of solidarity, the on going reneging of the social contract and the corruption of the gift relationship.

The political philosophy of Miki Kiyoshi: A close reading of the philosophical foundations of cooperative communitarianism

The thesis is a historical and philological study of the mature political theory of Miki Kiyoshi (1897-1945) focused on Philosophical Foundations of Cooperative Communitarianism (1939), a full translation of which is included. As the name suggests, it was a methodological and normative communitarianism, which critically built on liberalism, Marxism and Confucianism to realise a regional political community. Some of Miki’s Western readers have wrongly considered him a fascist ideologue, while he has been considered a humanist Marxist in Japan. A closer reading cannot support either view. The thesis argues that the Anglophone study of Japanese philosophy is a degenerating research programme ripe for revolution in the sense of returning full circle to an original point. That means returning to the texts, reading them contextually and philologically, in principle as early modern European political theory is read by intellectual historians, such as the representatives of Cambridge School history of political thought. The resulting reading builds critically on the Japanese scholarship and relates it to contemporary Western and postcolonial political theory and the East Asian tradition, particularly neo-Confucianism. The thesis argues for a Cambridge School perspective radicalised by the critical addendum of geo-cultural context, supplemented by Geertzian intercultural hermeneutics and a Saidian ‘return to philology’. As against those who have seen radical reorientations in Miki’s political thought, the thesis finds gradual progression and continuity between his neo-Kantian, existentialist, Marxian anthropology, Hegelian and finally communitarian phases. The theoretical underpinnings are his philosophical anthropology, a structurationist social theory of praxis, and a critique of liberalism, Marxism, nationalism and idealism emphasising concrete as opposed to abstract theory and the need to build on existing cultural traditions to modernise rather than westernise East Asia. This post-Western fusion was imagined to be the beginning of a true and pluralistic universalism.

Community workers' understandings and practices of resistance

This research is focused on Community Workers located in Southern Ireland, and their understandings and practices of resistance. It is an attempt to explore the ways in which community workers’ understandings and practices of resistance are formed and, in turn, inform their sense of identity and their responses to the wider context of community development work in Ireland today. This study is specifically located but also has wider application and relevance because of the extended international reach of neo-liberal and managerial rationalities, and their implications for politics, policy and practice. The study considers resistance in a number of inter-related ways: as a collective oppositional position (with negative and positive dimensions); a personal and/or professional value (associated with the ‘expansion of contention’); a strategy for negotiating unequal power relations (in a range of levels and spaces of power); an identity (in relation to the sustaining of ‘reflexive subjectivities’); a set of practices, (which take into account the interplay between economic, political and cultural influences); and an educational process through which practitioners assess and enact personal and professional agency. Critical theorisations of community development and of the Irish state over time, trace the ways in which neo-liberalism and managerialism has inflected community development practice and the positions of community workers and communities in that process. The study draws on James C. Scott, Gramsci, Barnes and Prior, among others, which enabled the interrogation of resistance in relation to everyday practices through engaging with ‘hidden transcripts’ and spaces. The method chosen was focus group discussions with three groups of community workers located in different counties in Southern Ireland. This method facilitated a deep discourse analysis of practitioners’ encounters with resistance in the field of community work. Key findings relate to the various interpretations of the role of resistance, practices of resistance (including current restrictions), the value of resistance work and the conditions that may be conducive to practising resistance.

Depression and 'crises of meaninglessness' in the political-economic theology of the money-God

The thesis starts with a historical analysis of the development of depression as a concept. Through this inquiry, the controversies behind the apparent consensus about depression’s etiology and treatment are illuminated, suggesting that the understanding of the climbing rates of depression in contemporary Western civilization is still up for grabs. That’s what the thesis sets out to investigate. In order to accomplish this aim, the study builds upon the classical accounts of Georg Simmel, Émile Durkheim and the more contemporary ideas of Dany-Robert Dufour, in dialogue with an array of supplementary theoretical sources. Navigating through this ‘sea’ of extraordinary and different theories, a new avenue of reflections arises, contributing for the sophistication of the questions made about the phenomenon of depression’s rates. The fundamental argument emerging from this theoretical undertaking is that ‘crises of meaninglessness’ that pervade the collective body of Western contemporary societies have, as one of its consequences, the expansion of depression rates. Meaninglessness in contemporary times is the primary object of investigation of the thesis. The concept, in the context of this study, is not understood as merely an effect of the historical decline of shared social norms due to processes of individualization. Rather, it is claimed, it originates from and is reinforced by the ‘political-economic theology of neo-liberalism’ which becomes virtually generalized in the West, erecting money as a God. The study concludes that by undermining culturally established values, ideals, institutions and principles that may block the dissemination of commodities this new transcendence has been challenging the task of signifying life, potentializing – among other subjective difficulties – the diffusion of depression.

Justifying jihad: US politics, propaganda and the Afghan mujahedeen

Hard-line anti-communists in the United States recognised the potential for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 to embroil their super-power rival in a ‘Vietnam-like quagmire.’ Their covert operation to arm the mujahedeen is well documented. This dissertation argues that propaganda and public diplomacy were powerful and essential instruments of this campaign. It examines the protagonists of this strategy, their policies, initiatives and programmes offering a comprehensive analysis heretofore absent. It stretches from the dying days of the Carter administration when Zbigniew Brzezinski saw the ‘opportunity’ presented by the invasion to the Soviet’s withdrawal in 1989. The aim of these information strategies was to damage Soviet credibility and enhance that of the US, considered under threat from growing ‘moral equivalence’ amongst international publics. The conflict could help the US regain strategic advantage in South Asia undermined by the ‘loss’ of Iran. The Reagan administration used it to justify the projection of US military might that it believed was eviscerated under Carter and emasculated by the lingering legacy of Vietnam. The research engages with source material from the Reagan Presidential Library, the United States Information Agency archives and the Library of Congress as well as a number of online archives. The material is multi-archival and multi-media including documentaries, booklets, press conferences, summit programmes and news-clips as well as national security policy documents and contemporaneous media commentary. It concludes that propaganda and public diplomacy were integral to the Reagan administration and other mujahedeen supporters’ determination to challenge the USSR. It finds that the conflict was used to justify military rearmament, further strategic aims and reassert US power. These Cold War machinations had a considerable impact on the course of the conflict and undermined efforts at resolution and reconciliation with profound implications for the future stability of Afghanistan and the world.

Geochemistry, mineralogy, and chemical modeling of the acid crater lake of Kawah Ijen volcano, Indonesia

The Kawah Ijen volcano-with a record of phreatic eruptions-has its 1000 m wide crater filled with a lake that has existed for at least one century. At present, the lake waters are hot (T ≈ 37°C), strongly mineralized (TDS = 105 g/L) and extremely acidic (pH ≈ 0.4). By its volume, the Javanese lake is probably the largest accumulation in the world of such acidic waters. Mineralogy of the suspended solids within the lake waters suggests that concentrations of Si, Ca, Ti, and Ba are controlled by precipitation of silica, gypsum, anatase, and barite. Lake sediment is composed of chemical precipitates with composition similar to the suspended solids. Thermodynamic calculations predict that the lake waters have reached equilibrium with respect to α-cristobalite, barite, gypsum, anglesite, celestite, and amorphous silica, in agreement with the analytical observations. Significant concentrations of ferric iron suggest that the current lake waters are fairly oxidized. Sulfides are absent in the water column but are always present in the native S spherules that form porous aggregates which float on the lake. The presence of native S provides direct evidence of more reduced conditions at the lake floor where H2S is probably being injected into the lake. With progressive addition of H2S to the acid waters, native S, pyrite, and enargite are theoretically predicted to be saturated. Reactions between upward streaming H2S-bearing gases discharged by subaqueous fumaroles, and metals dissolved in the acidic waters could initiate precipitation of these sulfides. A model of direct absorption of hot magmatic gases into cool water accounts for the extreme acidity of the crater lake. Results show that strongly acidic, sulfate-rich solutions are formed under oxidizing conditions at high gas/water ratios. Reactions between the acidic fluids and the Ijen andesite were modeled to account for elevated cation concentrations in lake water. Current concentrations of conservative rockforming elements are produced by dissolution of approximately 60 g of andesite per kg of acid solution. Complete neutralization of the acid lake waters by reaction with the wallrock produces a theoretical alteration assemblage equivalent to that observed in volcano-hosted, acid-sulfate epithermal ore deposits. © 1994.

Design Optimization and Security For Communication Networks

In this work we introduce a new mathematical tool for optimization of routes, topology design, and energy efficiency in wireless sensor networks. We introduce a vector field formulation that models communication in the network, and routing is performed in the direction of this vector field at every location of the network. The magnitude of the vector field at every location represents the density of amount of data that is being transited through that location. We define the total communication cost in the network as the integral of a quadratic form of the vector field over the network area. With the above formulation, we introduce a mathematical machinery based on partial differential equations very similar to the Maxwell's equations in electrostatic theory. We show that in order to minimize the cost, the routes should be found based on the solution of these partial differential equations. In our formulation, the sensors are sources of information, and they are similar to the positive charges in electrostatics, the destinations are sinks of information and they are similar to negative charges, and the network is similar to a non-homogeneous dielectric media with variable dielectric constant (or permittivity coefficient). In one of the applications of our mathematical model based on the vector fields, we offer a scheme for energy efficient routing. Our routing scheme is based on changing the permittivity coefficient to a higher value in the places of the network where nodes have high residual energy, and setting it to a low value in the places of the network where the nodes do not have much energy left. Our simulations show that our method gives a significant increase in the network life compared to the shortest path and weighted shortest path schemes. Our initial focus is on the case where there is only one destination in the network, and later we extend our approach to the case where there are multiple destinations in the network. In the case of having multiple destinations, we need to partition the network into several areas known as regions of attraction of the destinations. Each destination is responsible for collecting all messages being generated in its region of attraction. The complexity of the optimization problem in this case is how to define regions of attraction for the destinations and how much communication load to assign to each destination to optimize the performance of the network. We use our vector field model to solve the optimization problem for this case. We define a vector field, which is conservative, and hence it can be written as the gradient of a scalar field (also known as a potential field). Then we show that in the optimal assignment of the communication load of the network to the destinations, the value of that potential field should be equal at the locations of all the destinations. Another application of our vector field model is to find the optimal locations of the destinations in the network. We show that the vector field gives the gradient of the cost function with respect to the locations of the destinations. Based on this fact, we suggest an algorithm to be applied during the design phase of a network to relocate the destinations for reducing the communication cost function. The performance of our proposed schemes is confirmed by several examples and simulation experiments. In another part of this work we focus on the notions of responsiveness and conformance of TCP traffic in communication networks. We introduce the notion of responsiveness for TCP aggregates and define it as the degree to which a TCP aggregate reduces its sending rate to the network as a response to packet drops. We define metrics that describe the responsiveness of TCP aggregates, and suggest two methods for determining the values of these quantities. The first method is based on a test in which we drop a few packets from the aggregate intentionally and measure the resulting rate decrease of that aggregate. This kind of test is not robust to multiple simultaneous tests performed at different routers. We make the test robust to multiple simultaneous tests by using ideas from the CDMA approach to multiple access channels in communication theory. Based on this approach, we introduce tests of responsiveness for aggregates, and call it CDMA based Aggregate Perturbation Method (CAPM). We use CAPM to perform congestion control. A distinguishing feature of our congestion control scheme is that it maintains a degree of fairness among different aggregates. In the next step we modify CAPM to offer methods for estimating the proportion of an aggregate of TCP traffic that does not conform to protocol specifications, and hence may belong to a DDoS attack. Our methods work by intentionally perturbing the aggregate by dropping a very small number of packets from it and observing the response of the aggregate. We offer two methods for conformance testing. In the first method, we apply the perturbation tests to SYN packets being sent at the start of the TCP 3-way handshake, and we use the fact that the rate of ACK packets being exchanged in the handshake should follow the rate of perturbations. In the second method, we apply the perturbation tests to the TCP data packets and use the fact that the rate of retransmitted data packets should follow the rate of perturbations. In both methods, we use signature based perturbations, which means packet drops are performed with a rate given by a function of time. We use analogy of our problem with multiple access communication to find signatures. Specifically, we assign orthogonal CDMA based signatures to different routers in a distributed implementation of our methods. As a result of orthogonality, the performance does not degrade because of cross interference made by simultaneously testing routers. We have shown efficacy of our methods through mathematical analysis and extensive simulation experiments.

Sonata Development at the Turn of the Century: From Liszt to Stravinsky

The sonata began to lose its position of predominance among compositions in the middle of the 19th century. Having been the platform for harmonic and thematic development of music since the late baroque period the sonata entered a process of reevaluation and experimentation with form. As a result fewer sonatas were being composed with some composers dropping the genre completely. This dissertation looks at the different approaches taken by the German, French and Russian schools of composition and compares the solo and chamber music applications of the sonata form. In the German tradition Franz Liszt's Sonata in b minor sets the standard for the revolutionary approach to form while the Berg Sonata is a very conservative application of form to an innovative use of extended chromaticism. Both composers chose to write one movement through composed pieces with Liszt working with a very expansive use of form and Berg being extremely compact and efficient. Among the Russian composers, Prokofieff's third sonata is also a one movement sonata, but he falls between Liszt and Berg in terms of the length of the piece and the use of innovative musical language. Scriabin uses a two movement approach, but keeps the element of a through composed piece with the same important material spanning both movements. Stravinsky is the most conservative of these with a three movement sonata that uses a mix of chromaticism and baroque and classical style influences. The French almost stopped composing true sonatas except for chamber music where Franck and Fauré write late romantic sonatas, while Debussy is very innovative within a three movement sonata. Estampes, by Debussy, are taken in almost as an afterthought to illustrate the direction Debussy takes in his piano solo music. While Estampes is by definition a set of character pieces they function like a sonata with three movements.

Jamming for a 2D granular material

This paper focuses on the nature of jamming, as seen in two-dimensional frictional granular systems consisting of photoelastic particles. The photoelastic technique is unique at this time, in its capability to provide detailed particle-scale information on forces and kinematic quantities such as particle displacements and rotations. These experiments first explore isotropic stress states near point J through measurements of the mean contact number per particle, Z, and the pressure, P as functions of the packing fraction, . In this case, the experiments show some but not all aspects of jamming, as expected on the basis of simulations and models that typically assume conservative, hence frictionless, forces between particles. Specifically, there is a rapid growth in Z, at a reasonable which we identify with as c. It is possible to fit Z and P, to power law expressions in - c above c, and to obtain exponents that are in agreement with simulations and models. However, the experiments differ from theory on several points, as typified by the rounding that is observed in Z and P near c. The application of shear to these same 2D granular systems leads to phenomena that are qualitatively different from the standard picture of jamming. In particular, there is a range of packing fractions below c, where the application of shear strain at constant leads to jammed stress-anisotropic states, i.e. they have a non-zero shear stress, τ. The application of shear strain to an initially isotropically compressed (hence jammed) state, does not lead to an unjammed state per se. Rather, shear strain at constant first leads to an increase of both τ and P. Additional strain leads to a succession of jammed states interspersed with relatively localized failures of the force network leading to other stress-anisotropic states that are jammed at typically somewhat lower stress. The locus of jammed states requires a state space that involves not only and τ, but also P. P, τ, and Z are all hysteretic functions of shear strain for fixed . However, we find that both P and τ are roughly linear functions of Z for strains large enough to jam the system. This implies that these shear-jammed states satisfy a Coulomb like-relation, τ = μP. © 2010 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.