Application and evaluation of classification trees for screening unwanted plants

Risk assessment systems for introduced species are being developed and applied globally, but methods for rigorously evaluating them are still in their infancy. We explore classification and regression tree models as an alternative to the current Australian Weed Risk Assessment system, and demonstrate how the performance of screening tests for unwanted alien species may be quantitatively compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The optimal classification tree model for predicting weediness included just four out of a possible 44 attributes of introduced plants examined, namely: (i) intentional human dispersal of propagules; (ii) evidence of naturalization beyond native range; (iii) evidence of being a weed elsewhere; and (iv) a high level of domestication. Intentional human dispersal of propagules in combination with evidence of naturalization beyond a plants native range led to the strongest prediction of weediness. A high level of domestication in combination with no evidence of naturalization mitigated the likelihood of an introduced plant becoming a weed resulting from intentional human dispersal of propagules. Unlikely intentional human dispersal of propagules combined with no evidence of being a weed elsewhere led to the lowest predicted probability of weediness. The failure to include intrinsic plant attributes in the model suggests that either these attributes are not useful general predictors of weediness, or data and analysis were inadequate to elucidate the underlying relationship(s). This concurs with the historical pessimism that we will ever be able to accurately predict invasive plants. Given the apparent importance of propagule pressure (the number of individuals of an species released), future attempts at evaluating screening model performance for identifying unwanted plants need to account for propagule pressure when collating and/or analysing datasets. The classification tree had a cross-validated sensitivity of 93.6% and specificity of 36.7%. Based on the area under the ROC curve, the performance of the classification tree in correctly classifying plants as weeds or non-weeds was slightly inferior (Area under ROC curve = 0.83 +/- 0.021 (+/- SE)) to that of the current risk assessment system in use (Area under ROC curve = 0.89 +/- 0.018 (+/- SE)), although requires many fewer questions to be answered.

Optimal control, geometry, and quantum computing

We prove upper and lower bounds relating the quantum gate complexity of a unitary operation, U, to the optimal control cost associated to the synthesis of U. These bounds apply for any optimal control problem, and can be used to show that the quantum gate complexity is essentially equivalent to the optimal control cost for a wide range of problems, including time-optimal control and finding minimal distances on certain Riemannian, sub-Riemannian, and Finslerian manifolds. These results generalize the results of [Nielsen, Dowling, Gu, and Doherty, Science 311, 1133 (2006)], which showed that the gate complexity can be related to distances on a Riemannian manifold.

Lo-Fi matchmaking: A study of social pairing for backpackers 8th International Conference on Ubiquitous Computing, UbiComp 2006

It is technically feasible for mobile social software such as pairing or ‘matchmaking’ systems to introduce people to others and assist information exchange. However, little is known about the social structure of many mobile communities or why they would want such pairing systems. While engaged in other work determining requirements for a mobile travel assistant we saw a potentially useful application for a pairing system to facilitate the exchange of travel information between backpackers. To explore this area, we designed two studies involving usage of a low-fidelity role prototype of a social pairing system for backpackers. Backpackers rated the utility of different pairing types, and provided feedback on the social implications of being paired based on travel histories. Practical usage of the social network pairing activity and the implications of broader societal usage are discussed.

Why is economics not a complex systems science?

The article argues that economics will have to become a complex systems science before economists can comfortably incorporate institutionalist and evolutionary economics into mainstream theory. The article compares the complex adaptive system of John Foster with that of standard economic theory and illustrates the difference through an examination of familiar production function. The place of neoclassical, Keynesian economics in complex systems is considered. The article concludes that convincing, multiple models have been made possible by the increase in widely available computing power available.

Anisotropy-based robust performance analysis of finite horizon linear discrete time varying systems

We consider a problem of robust performance analysis of linear discrete time varying systems on a bounded time interval. The system is represented in the state-space form. It is driven by a random input disturbance with imprecisely known probability distribution; this distributional uncertainty is described in terms of entropy. The worst-case performance of the system is quantified by its a-anisotropic norm. Computing the anisotropic norm is reduced to solving a set of difference Riccati and Lyapunov equations and a special form equation.

Bridging technical and HCI research: Creating usable ubiquitous computing

This paper describes methods used to support collaboration and communication between practitioners, designers and engineers when designing ubiquitous computing systems. We tested methods such as “Wizard of Oz” and design games in a real domain, the dental surgery, in an attempt to create a system that is: affordable; minimally disruptive of the natural flow of work; and improves human-computer interaction. In doing so we found that such activities allowed the practitioners to be on a ‘level playing ground’ with designers and engineers. The findings we present suggest that dentists are willing to engage in detailed exploration and constructive critique of technical design possibilities if the design ideas and prototypes are presented in the context of their work practice and are of a resolution and relevance that allow them to jointly explore and question with the design time. This paper is an extension of a short paper submitted to the Participatory Design Conference, 2004.

Patterns in complex systems modeling

The design, development, and use of complex systems models raises a unique class of challenges and potential pitfalls, many of which are commonly recurring problems. Over time, researchers gain experience in this form of modeling, choosing algorithms, techniques, and frameworks that improve the quality, confidence level, and speed of development of their models. This increasing collective experience of complex systems modellers is a resource that should be captured. Fields such as software engineering and architecture have benefited from the development of generic solutions to recurring problems, called patterns. Using pattern development techniques from these fields, insights from communities such as learning and information processing, data mining, bioinformatics, and agent-based modeling can be identified and captured. Collections of such 'pattern languages' would allow knowledge gained through experience to be readily accessible to less-experienced practitioners and to other domains. This paper proposes a methodology for capturing the wisdom of computational modelers by introducing example visualization patterns, and a pattern classification system for analyzing the relationship between micro and macro behaviour in complex systems models. We anticipate that a new field of complex systems patterns will provide an invaluable resource for both practicing and future generations of modelers.

Towards a standards-based autonomic context management system

Pervasive computing applications must be sufficiently autonomous to adapt their behaviour to changes in computing resources and user requirements. This capability is known as context-awareness. In some cases, context-aware applications must be implemented as autonomic systems which are capable of dynamically discovering and replacing context sources (sensors) at run-time. Unlike other types of application autonomy, this kind of dynamic reconfiguration has not been sufficiently investigated yet by the research community. However, application-level context models are becoming common, in order to ease programming of context-aware applications and support evolution by decoupling applications from context sources. We can leverage these context models to develop general (i.e., application-independent) solutions for dynamic, run-time discovery of context sources (i.e., context management). This paper presents a model and architecture for a reconfigurable context management system that supports interoperability by building on emerging standards for sensor description and classification.

A novel grid computing approach for probabilistic small signal analysis

Grid computing is an advanced technique for collaboratively solving complicated scientific problems using geographically and organisational dispersed computational, data storage and other recourses. Application of grid computing could provide significant benefits to all aspects of power system that involves using computers. Based on our previous research, this paper presents a novel grid computing approach for probabilistic small signal stability (PSSS) analysis in electric power systems with uncertainties. A prototype computing grid is successfully implemented in our research lab to carry out PSSS analysis on two benchmark systems. Comparing to traditional computing techniques, the gird computing has given better performances for PSSS analysis in terms of computing capacity, speed, accuracy and stability. In addition, a computing grid framework for power system analysis has been proposed based on the recent study.

RSA-Grid: A grid computing based framework for power system reliability and security analysis

Grid computing is an emerging technology for providing the high performance computing capability and collaboration mechanism for solving the collaborated and complex problems while using the existing resources. In this paper, a grid computing based framework is proposed for the probabilistic based power system reliability and security analysis. The suggested name of this computing grid is Reliability and Security Grid (RSA-Grid). Then the architecture of this grid is presented. A prototype system has been built for further development of grid-based services for power systems reliability and security assessment based on probabilistic techniques, which require high performance computing and large amount of memory. Preliminary results based on prototype of this grid show that RSA-Grid can provide the comprehensive assessment results for real power systems efficiently and economically.