Financial stocks and political bonds: stock market participation and political behavior in the United States and Britain

This dissertation investigates the effect of stock market participation on political behavior. Some observers claim that financial assets—stocks and mutual funds—have a causal effect on political behavior. The “investor class theory” asserts that as people invest in the stock market their partisan attachments shift rightward. The “asset effect theory” claims that financial investments increase political interest and participation. I examine these claims with longitudinal data from the United States and Great Britain covering a twenty-year period from the early 1980s through the mid-2000’s. I also examine the effect of financial asset ownership on political attitudes in the United States during the 2008 stock market crash. I find no evidence to support the argument that stock market participation has any causal effect on partisanship, participation, or political attitudes.

Transactions and schema evolution in a persistent object-oriented programming system

Applications are subject of a continuous evolution process with a profound impact on their underlining data model, hence requiring frequent updates in the applications' class structure and database structure as well. This twofold problem, schema evolution and instance adaptation, usually known as database evolution, is addressed in this thesis. Additionally, we address concurrency and error recovery problems with a novel meta-model and its aspect-oriented implementation. Modern object-oriented databases provide features that help programmers deal with object persistence, as well as all related problems such as database evolution, concurrency and error handling. In most systems there are transparent mechanisms to address these problems, nonetheless the database evolution problem still requires some human intervention, which consumes much of programmers' and database administrators' work effort. Earlier research works have demonstrated that aspect-oriented programming (AOP) techniques enable the development of flexible and pluggable systems. In these earlier works, the schema evolution and the instance adaptation problems were addressed as database management concerns. However, none of this research was focused on orthogonal persistent systems. We argue that AOP techniques are well suited to address these problems in orthogonal persistent systems. Regarding the concurrency and error recovery, earlier research showed that only syntactic obliviousness between the base program and aspects is possible. Our meta-model and framework follow an aspect-oriented approach focused on the object-oriented orthogonal persistent context. The proposed meta-model is characterized by its simplicity in order to achieve efficient and transparent database evolution mechanisms. Our meta-model supports multiple versions of a class structure by applying a class versioning strategy. Thus, enabling bidirectional application compatibility among versions of each class structure. That is to say, the database structure can be updated because earlier applications continue to work, as well as later applications that have only known the updated class structure. The specific characteristics of orthogonal persistent systems, as well as a metadata enrichment strategy within the application's source code, complete the inception of the meta-model and have motivated our research work. To test the feasibility of the approach, a prototype was developed. Our prototype is a framework that mediates the interaction between applications and the database, providing them with orthogonal persistence mechanisms. These mechanisms are introduced into applications as an {\it aspect} in the aspect-oriented sense. Objects do not require the extension of any super class, the implementation of an interface nor contain a particular annotation. Parametric type classes are also correctly handled by our framework. However, classes that belong to the programming environment must not be handled as versionable due to restrictions imposed by the Java Virtual Machine. Regarding concurrency support, the framework provides the applications with a multithreaded environment which supports database transactions and error recovery. The framework keeps applications oblivious to the database evolution problem, as well as persistence. Programmers can update the applications' class structure because the framework will produce a new version for it at the database metadata layer. Using our XML based pointcut/advice constructs, the framework's instance adaptation mechanism is extended, hence keeping the framework also oblivious to this problem. The potential developing gains provided by the prototype were benchmarked. In our case study, the results confirm that mechanisms' transparency has positive repercussions on the programmer's productivity, simplifying the entire evolution process at application and database levels. The meta-model itself also was benchmarked in terms of complexity and agility. Compared with other meta-models, it requires less meta-object modifications in each schema evolution step. Other types of tests were carried out in order to validate prototype and meta-model robustness. In order to perform these tests, we used an OO7 small size database due to its data model complexity. Since the developed prototype offers some features that were not observed in other known systems, performance benchmarks were not possible. However, the developed benchmark is now available to perform future performance comparisons with equivalent systems. In order to test our approach in a real world scenario, we developed a proof-of-concept application. This application was developed without any persistence mechanisms. Using our framework and minor changes applied to the application's source code, we added these mechanisms. Furthermore, we tested the application in a schema evolution scenario. This real world experience using our framework showed that applications remains oblivious to persistence and database evolution. In this case study, our framework proved to be a useful tool for programmers and database administrators. Performance issues and the single Java Virtual Machine concurrent model are the major limitations found in the framework.

Report on activities and financial report and proceedings.

Mode of access: Internet.

Health spending, illicit financial flows and tax incentives in Malawi

This analysis examines the gaps in health care financing in Malawi and how foregone taxes could fill these gaps. It begins with an assessment of the disease burden and government health expenditure. Then it analyses the tax revenues foregone by the government of Malawi by two main routes • Illicit financial flows (IFF) from the country • Tax incentives. We find that there are significant financing gaps in the health sector; for example, government expenditure is United States Dollars (USD) 177 million for 2013/2014 while projected donor contribution in 2013/2014 is USD 207 million and the total cost for the minimal health package is USD 535 million. Thus the funding gap between the government budget for health and the required spending to provide the minimal package for 2013/2014 is USD 358 million. On the other hand we estimate that almost USD 400million is lost through IFF and corporate utilization of tax incentives each year. The revenues foregone plus the current government health spending would be sufficient to cover the minimal public health package for all Malawians and would help tackle Malawi’s disease burden. Every effort must be made, including improving transparency and revising laws, to curtail IFF and moderate tax incentives.

Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: new evidence for Italy and the UK

This paper aims to investigate the long-run impact of housing and financial wealth on consumption in Italy and the UK using two different estimation methods. The novelty of the paper is to consider the recent financial crisis when studying wealth effects. The dynamics of wealth effects is also evaluated by a rolling regression analysis. The results show that: i) housing wealth plays no role in Italy, whereas it is significant in the UK; ii) in both countries, the financial wealth exerts a positive and significant impact on aggregate consumption; iii) by and large, the housing wealth effect assumes relatively increasing importance over time in the UK, while for Italy this is true for the financial wealth effect

Iowa Public Television independent auditor's reports, basic financial statements and supplementary information, June 30 2009.

Audit report on Iowa Public Television for the year ended June 30, 2009

A controversial debate between financial speculation and changes in agricultural commodity spot prices

Some research works state that speculation with agricultural commodities on the futures market has risen agricultural commodity spot prices. This research work analyzes the causal relationships between spot prices of corn, wheat, and soybean and agricultural commodity futures trading activities. These causal relationships between agricultural commodity spot prices and financial variables are tested for Granger-causality. Model results show that causal relationships have been found among changes in “volume traded” and “open positions” of futures contracts and changes in spot prices for corn. These results do not show that financial speculation might be a major driver of rising agricultural commodity prices.

Enhanced financial literacy through financial education and its impact on financial behaviour

This dissertation aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse on the effect an enhanced financial literacy, through financial education, has on financial behaviour. We posit that financial literacy is enhanced through financial education courses, but it also significantly impacts the financial behaviour of individuals. Moreover, we argue that improved financial literacy plays a significant role in mitigating behavioural biases and an asset price bubble. Chapter 1 analyzes the impact of a financial education course in enhancing financial literacy in a high- school context. Students at specific schools in Tirana, Albania, are delivered a financial education course, which lasts one academic year. To understand the impact of this financial education course in enhancing financial literacy, PISA (2012) questionnaire on financial literacy is delivered to the students before and after the course is delivered. Chapter 2 analysis the impact of financial literacy in mitigating behavioural biases. We focus on the impact that enhanced financial literacy through the financial education course and financial education plays in reducing the propensity to mental accounting bias. Chapter 3 investigates how financial literacy affects the propensity to an asset price bubble occurrence. We posit that enhanced financial literacy through financial education reduces the probability of an asset price bubble occurrence. We find that financial literacy enhanced through financial education has a significant impact in the financial behaviour of the individuals.

The frozen elephant trunk technique for the treatment of complex aortic arch and descending thoracic aorta pathologies: long term outcomes and distal reintervention

Background: The frozen elephant trunk(FET) technique is one of the last evolution in the treatment of complex pathologies of the aortic arch and the descending thoracic aorta.Materials and methods: Between January 2007 and March 2021, a total of 396 patients underwent total aortic arch replacements with the FET technique in our centre.The main indications were thoracic aortic aneurysm(n=104,28.2%), chronic aortic dissection(n=224,53.4%) and acute aortic dissection(n=68, 18.4%). We divided the population in two groups according the position of the distal anastomosis (zone 2 vs zone 3) and the length of the stent graft (< 150 mm vs > 150 mm): conservative group (Zone 2 anastomosis + stent length < 150mm, n. 140 pts) and aggressive group (zone 3 anastomosis + stent length > 150mm, n. 141). Results: The overall 30-day mortality rate was 13%(48/369); the risk factor analysis showed that an aggressive approach was neither a risk factor for major complication (permanent dialysis, tracheostomy, bowel malperfusion and permanent paraplegia) neither for 30-day mortality. The survival rate at 1, 5,10 and 15 years was 87.7%,75%,61.3% and 58.4% respectively. During the follow up, an aortic reintervention was performed in 122 patients (38%), 5 patients received a non-aortic cardiac surgery. Freedom from aortic reintervention at 1-,5- and 10-year was 77%,54% and 44% respectively. The freedom from aortic reintervention was higher in the ‘aggressive’ group (62.5%vs40.0% at 5 years, log-rank=0.056). An aggressive approach was not protective for aortic reintervention at follow up and for death at follow up. Conclusions: The FET technique represents a feasible and efficient option in the treatment of complex thoracic aortic pathologies. An aortic reintervention after FET is very common and the decision-making approach should consider and balance the higher risk of an aggressive approach in terms of post-operative complication versus the higher risk of a second aortic reintervention at follow-up.

I servizi di investimento nella disciplina dell'imposta sul valore aggiunto: il quadro normativo europeo e la sua attuazione nazionale

Il presente lavoro di ricerca ha ad oggetto i profili fiscali IVA dei servizi di investimento, in ambito sia europeo che nazionale, prestati dalle banche, dalle Sim e da consulenti/società di consulenza finanziaria nei confronti della clientela al dettaglio. Ciò al fine di individuarne il corretto trattamento fiscale nonché le possibili soluzioni agli interrogativi che ancora oggi rimangono aperti, anche alla luce delle indicazioni fornite nel tempo dalla Corte di Giustizia europea. Constatata la profonda differenza esistente tra la classificazione MiFID dei servizi di investimento e quella fiscale delle operazioni finanziarie, oltre alla mancanza di coordinamento tra le relative normative europee, che non si incontrano neanche nell’attività ermeneutica della Corte di giustizia, si è cercato di interpretare la Direttiva IVA alla luce della normativa di settore (MIFID). L’analisi della Direttiva IVA e, più in particolare, del trattamento da essa riservato alle operazioni finanziarie è stata, quindi, svolta cercando di ricondurre queste ultime ai (singoli) servizi di investimento (e, quindi, alla Direttiva MiFID) al fine di tracciare un collegamento che né il legislatore comunitario né la CGE hanno individuato. È, tuttavia, apparso evidente come l’intero sistema dell’IVA, con particolare riferimento alle operazioni finanziarie, si sia ormai consolidato sulle interpretazioni della Corte di giustizia le quali hanno mostrato una elevata resilienza intrinseca. È, pertanto, auspicabile un intervento legislativo, a livello comunitario, finalizzato a rimettere mano alla Direttiva IVA al fine di fornire criteri più chiari e stringenti per l’applicazione delle disposizioni in essa contenute, con particolare riferimento a quelle relative alle operazioni finanziarie.

Quantifying and modeling financial market fluctuations

Die Entstehung eines Marktpreises für einen Vermögenswert kann als Superposition der einzelnen Aktionen der Marktteilnehmer aufgefasst werden, die damit kumulativ Angebot und Nachfrage erzeugen. Dies ist in der statistischen Physik mit der Entstehung makroskopischer Eigenschaften vergleichbar, die von mikroskopischen Wechselwirkungen zwischen den beteiligten Systemkomponenten hervorgerufen werden. Die Verteilung der Preisänderungen an Finanzmärkten unterscheidet sich deutlich von einer Gaußverteilung. Dies führt zu empirischen Besonderheiten des Preisprozesses, zu denen neben dem Skalierungsverhalten nicht-triviale Korrelationsfunktionen und zeitlich gehäufte Volatilität zählen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit liegt der Fokus auf der Analyse von Finanzmarktzeitreihen und den darin enthaltenen Korrelationen. Es wird ein neues Verfahren zur Quantifizierung von Muster-basierten komplexen Korrelationen einer Zeitreihe entwickelt. Mit dieser Methodik werden signifikante Anzeichen dafür gefunden, dass sich typische Verhaltensmuster von Finanzmarktteilnehmern auf kurzen Zeitskalen manifestieren, dass also die Reaktion auf einen gegebenen Preisverlauf nicht rein zufällig ist, sondern vielmehr ähnliche Preisverläufe auch ähnliche Reaktionen hervorrufen. Ausgehend von der Untersuchung der komplexen Korrelationen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen wird die Frage behandelt, welche Eigenschaften sich beim Wechsel von einem positiven Trend zu einem negativen Trend verändern. Eine empirische Quantifizierung mittels Reskalierung liefert das Resultat, dass unabhängig von der betrachteten Zeitskala neue Preisextrema mit einem Anstieg des Transaktionsvolumens und einer Reduktion der Zeitintervalle zwischen Transaktionen einhergehen. Diese Abhängigkeiten weisen Charakteristika auf, die man auch in anderen komplexen Systemen in der Natur und speziell in physikalischen Systemen vorfindet. Über 9 Größenordnungen in der Zeit sind diese Eigenschaften auch unabhängig vom analysierten Markt - Trends, die nur für Sekunden bestehen, zeigen die gleiche Charakteristik wie Trends auf Zeitskalen von Monaten. Dies eröffnet die Möglichkeit, mehr über Finanzmarktblasen und deren Zusammenbrüche zu lernen, da Trends auf kleinen Zeitskalen viel häufiger auftreten. Zusätzlich wird eine Monte Carlo-basierte Simulation des Finanzmarktes analysiert und erweitert, um die empirischen Eigenschaften zu reproduzieren und Einblicke in deren Ursachen zu erhalten, die zum einen in der Finanzmarktmikrostruktur und andererseits in der Risikoaversion der Handelsteilnehmer zu suchen sind. Für die rechenzeitintensiven Verfahren kann mittels Parallelisierung auf einer Graphikkartenarchitektur eine deutliche Rechenzeitreduktion erreicht werden. Um das weite Spektrum an Einsatzbereichen von Graphikkarten zu aufzuzeigen, wird auch ein Standardmodell der statistischen Physik - das Ising-Modell - auf die Graphikkarte mit signifikanten Laufzeitvorteilen portiert. Teilresultate der Arbeit sind publiziert in [PGPS07, PPS08, Pre11, PVPS09b, PVPS09a, PS09, PS10a, SBF+10, BVP10, Pre10, PS10b, PSS10, SBF+11, PB10].

Increasing Derivatives Market Activity in Emerging Markets and Exchange Rate Exposure

Understanding the effects of off-balance sheet transactions on interest and exchange rate exposures has become more important for emerging market countries that are experiencing remarkable growth in derivatives markets. Using firm level data, we report a significant fall in exposure over the past 10 years and relate this to higher derivatives market participation. Our methodology is composed of a three stage approach: First, we measure foreign exchange exposures using the Adler-Dumas (1984) model. Next, we follow an indirect approach to infer derivatives market participation at the firm level. Finally, we study the relationship between exchange rate exposure and derivatives market participation. Our results show that foreign exchange exposure is negatively related to derivatives market participation, and support the hedging explanation of the exchange rate exposure puzzle. This decline is especially salient in the financial sector, for bigger firms, and over longer time periods. Results are robust to using different exchange rates, a GARCH-SVAR approach to measure exchange rate exposure, and different return horizons.

Financial fragility, trade credit and contagion effects during the crisis: a spatial econometric approach to firm-level data

The number of distressed manufacturing firms increased sharply during recessionary phase 2009-13. Financial indebtness traditionally plays a key role in assessing firm solvency but contagion effects that originate from the supply chain are usually neglected in literature. Firm interconnections, captured via the trade credit channel, represent a primary vehicle of individual shocks’ propagation, especially during an economic downturn, when liquidity tensions arise. A representative sample of 11,920 Italian manufacturing firms is considered to model a two-step econometric design, where chain reactions in terms of trade credit accumulation (i.e. default of payments to suppliers) are primarily analyzed by resorting to a spatial autoregressive approach (SAR). Spatial interactions are modeled based on a unique dataset of firm-to-firm transactions registered before the outbreak of the crisis. The second step in instead a binary outcome model where trade credit chains are considered together with data on the bank-firm relationship to assess determinants of distress likelihoods in 2009-13. Results show that outstanding trade debt is affected by the liquidity position of a firm and by positive spatial effects. Trade credit chain reactions are found to exert, in turn, a positive impact on distress likelihoods during the crisis. The latter effect is comparable in magnitude to the one exerted by individual financial rigidity, and stresses the importance to include complex interactions between firms in the analysis of the solvency behavior.

‘Failure to maintain’: care rationing and the clinical and financial burden of nurse sensitive hospital-acquired complications in complex older patients

Background: The ageing population, with concomitant increase in chronic conditions, is increasing the presence of older people with complex needs in hospital. People with dementia are one of these complex populations and are particularly vulnerable to complications in hospital. Registered nurses can offer simultaneous assessment and intervention to prevent or mitigate hospital-acquired complications through their skilled brokerage between patient needs and hospital functions. A range of patient outcome measures that are sensitive to nursing care has been tested in nursing work environments across the world. However, none of these measures have focused on hospitalised older patients. Method: This thesis explores nursing-sensitive complications for older patients with and without dementia using an internationally recognised, risk-adjusted patient outcome approach. Specifically explored are: the differences between rates of complications; the costs of complications; and cost comparisons of patient complexity. A retrospective cohort study of an Australian state’s 2006–07 public hospital discharge data was utilised to identify patient episodes for people over age 50 (N=222,440) where dementia was identified as a primary or secondary diagnosis (N=44,422). Extra costs for patient episodes were estimated based on length of stay (LOS) above the average for each patient’s Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) (N=157,178) and were modelled using linear regression analysis to establish the strongest patient complexity predictors of cost. Results: Hospitalised patients with a primary or secondary diagnosis of dementia had higher rates of complications than did their same-age peers. The highest rates and relative risk for people with dementia were found in four key complications: urinary tract infections; pressure injuries; pneumonia, and delirium. While 21.9% of dementia patients (9,751/44,488, p<0.0001) suffered a complication, only 8.8% of non-dementia patients did so (33,501/381,788, p<0.0001), giving dementia patients a 2.5 relative risk of acquiring a complication (p<0.0001). These four key complications in patients over 50 both with and without dementia were associated with an eightfold increase in length of stay (813%, or 3.6 days/0.4 days) and double the increased estimated mean episode cost (199%, or A$16,403/ A$8,240). These four complications were associated with 24.7% of the estimated cost of additional days spent in hospital in 2006–07 in NSW (A$226million/A$914million). Dementia patients accounted for 22.0% of these costs (A$49million/A$226million) even though they were only 10.4% of the population (44,488/426,276 episodes). Hospital-acquired complications, particularly for people with a comorbidity of dementia, cost more than other kinds of inpatient complexity but admission severity was a better predictor of excess cost. Discussion: Four key complications occur more often in older patients with dementia and the high rate of these complications makes them expensive. These complications are potentially preventable. However, the care that can prevent them (such as mobility, hydration, nutrition and communication) is known to be rationed or left unfinished by nurses. Older hospitalised people who have complex needs, such as those with dementia, are more likely to experience care rationing as their care tends to take longer, be less predictable and less curative in nature. This thesis offers the theoretical proposition that evidence-based nursing practices are rationed for complex older patients and that this rationed care contributes to functional and cognitive decline during hospitalisation. This, in turn, contributes to the high rates of complications observed. Thus four key complications can be seen as a ‘Failure to Maintain’ complex older people in hospital. ‘Failure to Maintain’ is the inadequate delivery of essential functional and cognitive care for a complex older person in hospital resulting in a complication, and is recommended as a useful indicator for hospital quality. Conclusions: When examining extra length of stay in hospital, complications and comorbid dementia are costly. Complications are potentially preventable, and dementia care in hospitals can be improved. Hospitals and governments looking to decrease costs can engage in risk-reduction strategies for common nurse sensitive complications such as healthy nursing work environments that minimise nurses’ rationing of functional and cognitive care. The conceptualisation of complex older patients as ‘business as usual’ rather than a ‘burden’ is likely necessary for sustainable health care services of the future. The use of the ‘Failure to Maintain’ indicators at institution and state levels may aid in embedding this approach for complex older patients into health organisations. Ongoing investigation is warranted into the relationships between the largest health services expense (hospitals), the largest hospital population (complex older patients), and the largest hospital expense (nurses). The ‘Failure to Maintain’ quality indicator makes a useful and substantive contribution to further clinical, administrative and research developments.

Livelihood diversification and moneylending in a Rajasthan village: what lessons for rural financial services?

The complexity of rural economies in developing countries is increasingly recognised, as is the need to tailor poverty reduction policies according to the diversity of rural households and their requirements. By reference to a village in Western India, the paper examines the results of a longitudinal micro-level research approach, employed for the study of livelihood diversification and use of informal finance. Over a 25-year period, livelihoods are shown to have become more complex, in terms of location, types of non-farm activities, and combinations of activities. Moreover, livelihood pathways taken continue to be critically affected by economic and social inequalities implicit in the caste system and tribal economy. A longitudinal micro-level research approach is shown to be one that can effectively identify the many complexities of rural livelihoods and the continued dependence on the informal financial sector, providing important insights into the requirements for rural financial products and services.