870 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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A variabilidade anual da produção fotossintética (PP) pelo fitoplâncton na zona da barragem da Represa de Jurumirim (São Paulo, Brasil) foi medida após um estudo no período de três anos sucessivos, com o objetivo de identificar padrões recorrentes e suas causas. Medidas da variabilidade da PP em escala diária foram obtidas em dois períodos do ano (estações seca e chuvosa). Nenhum padrão recorrente foi verificado nos dados de PP, visto não haver relação de sua variabilidade com nenhum fator hidrológico (precipitação, nível e vazão de água e washout) nem, aparentemente, com as condições nutritivas da água. A análise de componentes principais revelou que a PP e a taxa de assimilação foram mais elevadas na época do ano em que o conteúdo de PO4(3-) e N-NH4+ foi mais baixo e quando as razões Z EU/Z MIX foram mais elevadas. A produtividade primária/área pode ser estimada pela razão entre a produtividade volumétrica máxima e o coeficiente de extinção vertical da luz. Entretanto, a biomassa integrada na Z EU foi um pobre preditor da produtividade primária/área. Nenhuma correlação foi encontrada entre a temperatura da água com a produtividade primária (por área e volumétrica máxima). em conseqüência, o estudo da PP em três anos sucessivos mostrou que o padrão de variabilidade é tipicamente caótico. em relação às medidas de curta duração, maior PP foi encontrada na estação seca do que na chuvosa. em ambos os períodos, a variabilidade da PP (por área) foi de aproximadamente 35-40%. O padrão foi atribuído não somente à variação na concentração dos nutrientes mas também à magnitude de penetração de luz na água associado ao regime de circulação. Um comentário sobre a relação entre produção primária pelo fitoplâncton com produção pesqueira é também apresentada.
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In this paper, short term hydroelectric scheduling is formulated as a network flow optimization model and solved by interior point methods. The primal-dual and predictor-corrector versions of such interior point methods are developed and the resulting matrix structure is explored. This structure leads to very fast iterations since it avoids computation and factorization of impedance matrices. For each time interval, the linear algebra reduces to the solution of two linear systems, either to the number of buses or to the number of independent loops. Either matrix is invariant and can be factored off-line. As a consequence of such matrix manipulations, a linear system which changes at each iteration has to be solved, although its size is reduced to the number of generating units and is not a function of time intervals. These methods were applied to IEEE and Brazilian power systems, and numerical results were obtained using a MATLAB implementation. Both interior point methods proved to be robust and achieved fast convergence for all instances tested. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Acarbose is a competitive inhibitor of the intestinal alpha-glycosidases, that can delay absorption of intestinal carbohydrates causing their malabsorption. In the present paper we studied the effects of insulin, acarbose and their association on glomerular basement membrane thickening in alloxan-diabetic rats. Twenty-five male and female Wistar rats, approximately 3 months old at the beginning of the experiment, were assigned randomly to each of five experimental groups: normal control rats, alloxan-diabetic control rats, alloxan-diabetic rats treated with acarbose, alloxan-diabetic rats treated with insulin, and alloxan-diabetic rats treated with insulin plus acarbose. Alloxan was administered in a single iv dose of 42 mg/kg body weight. Insulin was given subcutaneously at doses of 18 to 30 IU/kg corrected daily on the basis of glycosuria and ketonuria. Acarbose was given mixed with rat chow in a dose of 50 mg/100 g chow. Body weight, water and food intake and diuresis, as well as blood and urine glucose were determined after 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of treatment. Glomerular basement membrane (GBM) thickening was determined by electron microscopy at the same times. Clear clinical and laboratory signs of severe diabetes, with blood glucose levels above 200 mg/dl and urine glucose above 3000 mg/dl, were observed in all alloxan-diabetic control rats, in all periods of follow-up, whereas administration of insulin or acarbose reduced the blood glucose levels of treated groups. The most satisfactory control of blood and urine glucose was observed in animals treated with both insulin and acarbose. However, diarrhea was observed in diabetic rats treated with acarbose associated or not with insulin. GBM thickening was correlated with age in all groups. Beginning at six months after diabetes induction, the GBM of untreated diabetic rats was significantly thicker (mean +/- SEM, 4.446 +/- 0.45 mm) than that of normal rats (2.977 +/- 0.63 mm). Both insulin and acarbose prevented GBM thickening and their combination induced thickening similar to the age-dependent thickening observed for normal rats of the same age. We conclude that acarbose when combined with insulin may be a good option in the control of diabetes and its renal complications.
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In order to develop an efficient and low-cost technique for obtaining bird chromosome preparations, and to adapt the cytogenetic process of bird sexing for general use at zoos and breeding farms with the technical support of cytogenetics laboratories, we tested variants of the technique described by Giannoni et al. (Genet. Sel. Evol. 23: 123-125, 1991), based on the utilization of cellular material from growing feather pulp cultured in complete medium for six hours. Hanks' saline solution gave satisfactory performance as a substitute for complete medium, with no need to use PHA, serum of collagenase, when utilized in material obtained from feather pulp of Amazona amazonica (Psittacidae).
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Background: The treatment of cyclosporin A triggers an early bone loss and gingival overgrowth. There is a lack of studies exploring the effects of long-term cyclosporin A therapy on alveolar bone homeostasis and gingival tissue. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of long-term therapy with cyclosporin A on the gingival tissue and on the alveolar bone metabolism in rats. Materials and methods: Rats were treated for 60, 120, 180 and 240 days with a daily subcutaneous injection of 10 mg/kg body weight of cyclosporin A. At the end of experimental periods, animals were killed and the serum calcium (Ca2+) and alkaline phosphatase levels were measured in all groups. After histological processing, the oral epithelium and the connective tissue, as well as volume densities of alveolar bone (Vb) and multinucleated osteoclasts (Vo), were assessed at the region of the lower first molars. Results: Significant increases in the serum alkaline phosphatase were observed in those groups that received cyclosporin A therapy. After 60 and 120 days of the treatment with cyclosporin A, evident gingival overgrowth associated with a significant increase of epithelium and connective tissue was observed, as well as a decrease of the densities of bone and an increase of densities of osteoclasts. After 180 and 240 days of the treatment, there was a reduction of the gingival overgrowth associated with significant decreases of epithelium and connective tissue, as well as an increase of bone densities and a decrease of osteoclasts. Conclusion: Within the limits of this experimental study, it can be concluded that the deleterious periodontal effects of cyclosporin A administration may be time-related side-effects. © Blackwell Munksgaard, 2004.
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We establish a Green-Nagdhi model equation for capillary-gravity waves in (2+1) dimensions. Through the derivation of an asymptotic equation governing short-wave dynamics, we show that this system possesses (1 + 1) traveling-wave solutions for almost all the values of the Bond number θ (the special case θ=1/3 is not studied). These waves become singular when their amplitude is larger than a threshold value, related to the velocity of the wave. The limit angle at the crest is then calculated. The stability of a wave train is also studied via a Benjamin-Feir modulational analysis. ©2005 The American Physical Society.
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This prospective clinical investigation evaluates the dentoalveolar and skeletal cephalometric changes produced by the Herbst appliance during treatment of mixed dentition patients with Class II division 1 malocclusion. Thirty individuals (15 male and 15 female individuals; initial mean age nine years 10 months) were treated with the Herbst appliance for a period of 12 months. For comparison, the records of 30 untreated Class II children (15 boys, 15 girls; initial mean age nine years eight months) were followed without treatment for a period of 12 months. The results indicated that the treatment effects produced in the mixed dentition patients were primarily dentoalveolar in nature. The mandibular incisors were tipped labially, and the maxillary incisors were retruded; a significant increase in mandibular posterior dentoalveolar height occurred, and there was a restriction in the vertical development of the maxillary molars. There was no difference in the forward growth of the maxilla between the two groups. In comparison with the controls, however, the Herbst treatment produced a modest but statistically significant increase in total mandibular length. This increase in total mandibular length, however, was less than that observed in adolescent Herbst patients in other studies. © 2005 by The EH Angle Education and Research Foundation, Inc.
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One of the more serious complications following transplantation is the development of post-transplantation diabetes mellitus (PTDM), which has a major impact on the quality of life, with effects ranging from the control of glycemia times to increased susceptibility to infections and cardiovascular complications. It has been suggested that immunosuppressive therapy, mainly tacrolimus therapy, may be an important factor in the development of PTDM. There is a lack of studies that explore the effects of long-term tacrolimus on PTDM in animal protocols. The objective of this study was therefore to evaluate the effects of long-term therapy with tacrolimus in rats. One group was treated with tacrolimus, injected subcutaneously, in a daily dose of 1 mg/kg of body weight. The chosen dose was sufficient to achieve therapeutic tacrolimus serum levels. The experimental periods were 60, 120, 180 and 240 days. One group was used as control and received daily subcutaneous injections of saline solution during all periods. A tendency towards increased glycemia levels during the initial periods (60 and 120 days) was observed. However, at 180 and 240 days, the glycemia levels were not statistically different from that of the control group of the same period. It may thus be concluded that the deleterious effects of tacrolimus therapy on glycemia may be a time-related side effect.
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Includes bibliography
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In this paper, the short term transmission network expansion planning (STTNEP) is solved through a specialized genetic algorithm (SGA). A complete AC model of the transmission network is used, which permits the formulation of an integrated power system transmission network expansion planning problem (real and reactive power planning). The characteristics of the proposed SGA to solve the STTNEP problem are detailed and an interior point method is employed to solve nonlinear programming problems during the solution steps of the SGA. Results of tests carried out with two electrical energy systems show the capabilities of the SGA and also the viability of using the AC model to solve the STTNEP problem. © 2009 IEEE.
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Fossil fuels such as diesel are being gradually replaced by biodiesel, a renewable energy source, cheaper and less polluting. However, little is known about the toxic effects of this new energy source on aquatic organisms. Thus, we evaluated biochemical biomarkers related to oxidative stress in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) after two and seven exposure days to diesel and pure biodiesel (B100) and blends B5 and B20 at concentrations of 0.01 and 0.1mLL -1. The hepatic ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase activity was highly induced in all groups, except for those animals exposed to B100. There was an increase in lipid peroxidation in liver and gills in the group exposed to the higher concentration of B5. All treatments caused a significant increase in the levels of 1-hydroxypyrene excreted in the bile after 2 and 7d, except for those fish exposed to B100. The hepatic glutathione-S-transferase increased after 7d in animals exposed to the higher concentration of diesel and in the gill of fish exposed to the higher concentration of pure diesel and B5, but decreased for the two tested concentrations of B100. Superoxide dismutase, catalase and glutathione peroxidase also presented significant changes according to the treatments for all groups, including B100. Biodiesel B20 in the conditions tested had fewer adverse effects than diesel and B5 for the Nile tilapia, and can be suggested as a less harmful fuel in substitution to diesel. However, even B100 could activate biochemical responses in fish, at the experimental conditions tested, indicating that this fuel can also represent a risk to the aquatic biota. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
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This paper proposes a filter based on a general regression neural network and a moving average filter, for preprocessing half-hourly load data for short-term multinodal load forecasting, discussed in another paper. Tests made with half-hourly load data from nine New Zealand electrical substations demonstrate that this filter is able to handle noise, missing data and abnormal data. © 2011 IEEE.