Conceptual models for designing information systems supporting the strategic analysis of technology environments

1 6 STRUCTURE OF THIS THESIS -Chapter I presents the motivations of this dissertation by illustrating two gaps in the current body of knowledge that are worth filling, describes the research problem addressed by this thesis and presents the research methodology used to achieve this goal. -Chapter 2 shows a review of the existing literature showing that environment analysis is a vital strategic task, that it shall be supported by adapted information systems, and that there is thus a need for developing a conceptual model of the environment that provides a reference framework for better integrating the various existing methods and a more formal definition of the various aspect to support the development of suitable tools. -Chapter 3 proposes a conceptual model that specifies the various enviromnental aspects that are relevant for strategic decision making, how they relate to each other, and ,defines them in a more formal way that is more suited for information systems development. -Chapter 4 is dedicated to the evaluation of the proposed model on the basis of its application to a concrete environment to evaluate its suitability to describe the current conditions and potential evolution of a real environment and get an idea of its usefulness. -Chapter 5 goes a step further by assembling a toolbox describing a set of methods that can be used to analyze the various environmental aspects put forward by the model and by providing more detailed specifications for a number of them to show how our model can be used to facilitate their implementation as software tools. -Chapter 6 describes a prototype of a strategic decision support tool that allow the analysis of some of the aspects of the environment that are not well supported by existing tools and namely to analyze the relationship between multiple actors and issues. The usefulness of this prototype is evaluated on the basis of its application to a concrete environment. -Chapter 7 finally concludes this thesis by making a summary of its various contributions and by proposing further interesting research directions.

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Metodologies de Desenvolupament Dirigides per Models

En aquest treball, s'introduiran dos de les metodologies de desenvolupament dirigides per models més significatives: Model Driven Architecture (MDA) i Domain Specific Modeling (DSM). Així mateix, es presentarà un estudi comparatiu d'algunes de les diferents eines existents actualment al mercat que els hi donen suport.

Protease inhibitors in hepatitis C: from chronic disease to cure.

The recent publication of two controlled trials on boceprevir and three on telaprevir heralds a new era for hepatitis C therapy. Bocreprevir and telaprevir are protease inhibitors which act directly on the hepatitis C virus to inhibit replication and are referred to as direct acting antiviral agents (DAAâ?Ts). They are the first 2 such agents to be licensed but it is hoped that many more will soon follow. These are very important studies and represent a major advance in treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection. To appreciate their significance it is important to be aware of some of the clinical features of hepatitis C virus infection. Firstly, hepatitis C exposure leads to chronic infection in approximately 70% of patients. Over time (years or decades) this may lead to chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis, liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma. The speed of progression depends on a number of co-factors. Patients who are male, drink alcohol, are overweight, diabetic or co-infected with HIV have more rapid progression to cirrhosis8. In contrast young, non-drinking females progress more slowly... Many patients with hepatitis C attend drug treatment clinics. This group rarely receive anti-viral therapy but represents the bulk of the population at risk for complications of chronic hepatitis C. It has been shown that antiviral treatment in drug treatment centres, linked to methadone treatment, is very effective in ensuring compliance. As the drug treatment infrastructure already exists, widening its remit to include hepatitis C treatment should be cost effective. A recent large study from the United States confirmed that it is possible to provide effective anti-viral therapy for hepatitis C in primary care settings, provided there is appropriate back-up.

Models i mètriques d'estimació d'esforç per la gestió de projectes informàtics.

L'objectiu principal d'aquest treball ha estat buscar i valorar les diferents opcions que hi ha en la gestió de projectes per a estimar-ne els costos relacionats. La primera de les tasques que s'ha fet és definir el terme 'projecte' per esbrinar quins tipus de projectes són susceptibles de ser valorats; aquesta tipificació ha portat a dividir els projectes en dues branques molt diferenciades, tot i que relacionades, durant el seu desenvolupament.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Increased efflux of amyloid-β peptides through the blood-brain barrier by muscarinic acetylcholine receptor inhibition reduces pathological phenotypes in mouse models of brain amyloidosis.

The formation and accumulation of toxic amyloid-β peptides (Aβ) in the brain may drive the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease. Accordingly, disease-modifying therapies for Alzheimer's disease and related disorders could result from treatments regulating Aβ homeostasis. Examples are the inhibition of production, misfolding, and accumulation of Aβ or the enhancement of its clearance. Here we show that oral treatment with ACI-91 (Pirenzepine) dose-dependently reduced brain Aβ burden in AβPPPS1, hAβPPSL, and AβPP/PS1 transgenic mice. A possible mechanism of action of ACI-91 may occur through selective inhibition of muscarinic acetylcholine receptors (AChR) on endothelial cells of brain microvessels and enhanced Aβ peptide clearance across the blood-brain barrier. One month treatment with ACI-91 increased the clearance of intrathecally-injected Aβ in plaque-bearing mice. ACI-91 also accelerated the clearance of brain-injected Aβ in blood and peripheral tissues by favoring its urinal excretion. A single oral dose of ACI-91 reduced the half-life of interstitial Aβ peptide in pre-plaque mhAβPP/PS1d mice. By extending our studies to an in vitro model, we showed that muscarinic AChR inhibition by ACI-91 and Darifenacin augmented the capacity of differentiated endothelial monolayers for active transport of Aβ peptide. Finally, ACI-91 was found to consistently affect, in vitro and in vivo, the expression of endothelial cell genes involved in Aβ transport across the Blood Brain Brain (BBB). Thus increased Aβ clearance through the BBB may contribute to reduced Aβ burden and associated phenotypes. Inhibition of muscarinic AChR restricted to the periphery may present a therapeutic advantage as it avoids adverse central cholinergic effects.

Studies on antimicrobial activity, in vitro, of Physalis angulata L. (Solanaceae) fraction and physalin B bringing out the importance of assay determination

Complex physalin metabolites present in the capsules of the fruit of Physalis angulata L. have been isolated and submitted to a series of assays of antimicrobial activity against Pseudomonas aeruginosa ATCC 27853, Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 29213, S. aureus ATCC 25923, S. aureus ATCC 6538P, Neisseria gonorrhoeae ATCC 49226, Escherichia coli ATCC 8739; E. coli ATCC 25922, Candida albicans ATCC 10231 applying different methodologies such as: bioautography, dilution broth, dilution agar, and agar diffusion techniques. A mixture of physalins (pool) containing physalins B, D, F, G inhibit S. aureus ATCC 29213, S. aureus ATCC 25923, S. aureus ATCC 6538P, and N. gonorrhoeae ATCC 49226 at a concentration of 200 mg/µl, using agar dilution assays. The mixture was inactive against P. aeruginosa ATCC27853, E. coli ATCC 8739; E. coli ATCC 25922, C. albicans ATCC 10231 when applying bioautography assays. Physalin B (200 µg/ml) by the agar diffusion assay inhibited S. aureus ATCC 6538P by ± 85%; and may be considered responsible for the antimicrobial activity.

Exposure models in Switzerland: an overview of the present situation

A survey was undertaken among Swiss occupational health and safety specialists in 2004 to identify uses, difficulties, and possible developments of exposure models. Occupational hygienists (121), occupational physicians (169), and safety specialists (95) were surveyed with an in depth questionnaire. Results obtained indicate that models are not used very much in practice in Switzerland and are reserved to research groups focusing on specific topics. However, various determinants of exposure are often considered important by professionals (emission rate, work activity), and in some cases recorded and used (room parameters, operator activity). These parameters cannot be directly included in present models. Nevertheless, more than half of the occupational hygienists think that it is important to develop quantitative exposure models. Looking at research institutions, there is, however, a big interest in the use of models to solve problems which are difficult to address with direct measurements; i. e. retrospective exposure assessment for specific clinical cases and prospective evaluation for new situations or estimation of the effect of selected parameters. In a recent study about cases of acutepulmonary toxicity following water proofing spray exposure, exposure models have been used to reconstruct exposure of a group of patients. Finally, in the context of exposure prediction, it is also important to report about a measurement database existing in Switzerland since 1991. [Authors]

Use of an immunodominant p17 antigenic fraction of Neospora caninum in detection of antibody response in cattle

A Neospora caninum 17 kDa protein fraction (p17) has been described as an immunodominant antigen (IDA) under reducing and non-reducing conditions. The aim of the present study was to investigate the diagnostic utility of p17 in cattle. In order to achieve this, p17 was purified by electroelution from whole N. caninum tachyzoite soluble extract and a p17-based Western blot (WB-p17) was developed. The p17 recognition was measured by densitometry and expressed as OD values to check the validity of the WB-p17. A total of 131 sera including sequential samples from naturally- and experimentally-infected calves and breeding cattle were analysed by WB-p17 and compared with IFAT using whole formalin-fixed tachyzoites as a reference test. The results obtained highlight the feasibility of using the N. caninum p17 in a diagnostic test in cattle. Firstly, the assay based on the p-17 antigen discriminated between known positive and negative sera from different cattle populations, breeding cattle and calves. Secondly, the p17 antigen detected fluctuations in the antibody levels and seroconversion in naturally- and experimentally-infected cattle. Significant differences in p-17 antigen recognition were observed between naturally infected aborting and non-aborting cattle, as well as significant antibody fluctuations over time in experimentally infected cattle, which varied between groups. Furthermore, the results obtained with WB-p17 are in accordance with the results obtained with the IFAT, as high agreement values were obtained when all bovine subpopulations were included (kappa = 0.86).

Cervical screening programme: HPV triage and test of cure protocol

Testing for high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) as triage and test of cure was introduced into the Northern Ireland Cervical Screening Programme on Monday 28 January 2013. This policy change will significantly alter the screening pathway for women with a mild dyskaryosis or borderline smear result. The link between HR-HPV infection and the development of cervical cancer has now been clearly established, with almost 100% of cervical cancers containing HPV DNA. Women with no evidence of HR-HPV infection are extremely unlikely to develop cervical cancer in the short to medium term. HPV triage is the process whereby HR-HPV testing is used to manage women with low grade cervical abnormalities. Only 15-20% of women with a borderline or mild smear result have a significant abnormality that needs treatment. HR-HPV testing is effective in identifying which women may need treatment and allows colposcopy resources to be allocated more effectively.The test of cure process is being introduced because it is now known that women with a normal or low grade smear test, and who are HR-HPV negative at six months after treatment, are at very low risk of residual disease. These women do not need to be recalled for another screening appointment for three years.The test of cure process means all post-treatment smears (at six months) that are reported as normal, borderline or mild dyskaryosis will be tested for HR-HPV. Those women who are HR-HPV positive will remain at colposcopy. HR-HPV negative women can be safely returned to recall in three years. It is estimated that the HR-HPV test of cure will allow approximately 80% of women who have been through treatment to avoid undergoing annual smear tests. This flowchart poster outlines the new triage and test of cure process. It was distributed to all GPs in Northern Ireland and is available to download as a PDF from this website.�