Business cycle measurement with some theory

A method to evaluate cyclical models not requiring knowledge of the DGP and the exact specificationof the aggregate decision rules is proposed. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use someto identify structural shocks in the data and others to evaluate the class or contrast sub-models. Theapproach has good properties, even in small samples, and when the class of models is misspecified. Themethod is used to sort out the relevance of a certain friction (the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers)in a standard class of models.

Postmortem imaging of sudden cardiac death

Postmortem imaging is increasingly used in forensic practice in cases of natural deaths related to cardiovascular diseases, which represent the most common causes of death in developed countries. While radiological examination is generally considered to be a good complement for conventional autopsy, it was thought to have limited application in cardiovascular pathology. At present, multidetector computed tomography (MDCT), CT angiography, and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used in postmortem radiological investigation of cardiovascular pathologies. This review presents the actual state of postmortem imaging for cardiovascular pathologies in cases of sudden cardiac death (SCD), taking into consideration both the advantages and limitations. The radiological evaluation of ischemic heart disease (IHD), the most frequent cause of SCD in the general population of industrialized countries, includes the examination of the coronary arteries and myocardium. Postmortem CT angiography (PMCTA) is very useful for the detection of stenoses and occlusions of coronary arteries but less so for the identification of ischemic myocardium. MRI is the method of choice for the radiological investigation of the myocardium in clinical practice, but its accessibility and application are still limited in postmortem practice. There are very few reports implicating postmortem radiology in the investigation of other causes of SCD, such as cardiomyopathies, coronary artery abnormalities, and valvular pathologies. Cardiomyopathies representing the most frequent cause of SCD in young athletes cannot be diagnosed by echocardiography, the most widely available technique in clinical practice for the functional evaluation of the heart and the detection of cardiomyopathies. PMCTA and MRI have the potential to detect advanced stages of diseases when morphological substrate is present, but these methods have yet to be sufficiently validated for postmortem cases. Genetically determined channelopathies cannot be detected radiologically. This review underlines the need to establish the role of postmortem radiology in the diagnosis of SCD.

Relative price riddles in international business cycle theory: Are transport costs the explanation?

We study relative price behavior in an international business cyclemodel with specialization in production, in which a goods marketfriction is introduced through transport costs. The transporttechnology allows for flexible transport costs. We analyze whetherthis extension can account for the striking differences betweentheory and data as far as the moments of terms of trade and realexchange rates are concerned. We find that transport costs increaseboth the volatility of the terms of trade and the volatility of thereal exchange rate. However, unless the transport technology isspecified by a Leontief technology, transport costs do not resolvethe quantitative discrepancies between theory and data. Asurprising result is that transport costs may actually lower thepersistence of the real exchange rate, a finding that is in contrastto much of the emphasis of the empirical literature.

Is lumpy investment really irrelevant for the business cycle?

New-Keynesian (NK) models can only account for the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks if it is assumed that aggregate capital accumulation is much smoother than it would be the case under frictionless firm-level investment, as discussed in Woodford (2003, Ch. 5). We find that lumpy investment, when combined with price stickiness and market power of firms,can rationalize this assumption. Our main result is in stark contrast with the conclusions obtained by Thomas (2002) in the context of a real business cycle (RBC) model. We use our model to explain the economic mechanism behind this difference in the predictions of RBC and NK theory.

Disability, capacity for work and the business cycle: An international perspective

An important policy issue in recent years concerns the number of people claimingdisability benefits for reasons of incapacity for work. We distinguish between workdisability , which may have its roots in economic and social circumstances, and healthdisability which arises from clear diagnosed medical conditions. Although there is a linkbetween work and health disability, economic conditions, and in particular the businesscycle and variations in the risk of unemployment over time and across localities, mayplay an important part in explaining both the stock of disability benefit claimants andinflows to and outflow from that stock. We employ a variety of cross?country andcountry?specific household panel data sets, as well as administrative data, to testwhether disability benefit claims rise when unemployment is higher, and also toinvestigate the impact of unemployment rates on flows on and off the benefit rolls. Wefind strong evidence that local variations in unemployment have an importantexplanatory role for disability benefit receipt, with higher total enrolments, loweroutflows from rolls and, often, higher inflows into disability rolls in regions and periodsof above?average unemployment. Although general subjective measures of selfreporteddisability and longstanding illness are also positively associated withunemployment rates, inclusion of self?reported health measures does not eliminate thestatistical relationship between unemployment rates and disability benefit receipt;indeed including general measures of health often strengthens that underlyingrelationship. Intriguingly, we also find some evidence from the United Kingdom and theUnited States that the prevalence of self?reported objective specific indicators ofdisability are often pro?cyclical that is, the incidence of specific forms of disability arepro?cyclical whereas claims for disability benefits given specific health conditions arecounter?cyclical. Overall, the analysis suggests that, for a range of countries and datasets, levels of claims for disability benefits are not simply related to changes in theincidence of health disability in the population and are strongly influenced by prevailingeconomic conditions. We discuss the policy implications of these various findings.

Inequality over the business cycle: Estimating income risk using micro-data on consumption

We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income, to evaluate the nature of increased income inequality in the 1980s and 90s. We decompose unexpected changes in family income into transitory and permanent, and idiosyncratic and aggregate components, and estimate the contribution of each component to total inequality. The model we use is a linearized incomplete markets model, enriched to incorporate risk-sharing while maintaining tractability. Our estimates suggest that taking risk sharing into account is important for the model fit; that the increase in inequality in the 1980s was mainly permanent; and that inequality is driven almost entirely by idiosyncratic income risk. In addition we find no evidence for cyclical behavior of consumption risk, casting doubt on Constantinides and Duffie s (1995) explanation for the equity premium puzzle.

Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent withmodels of heterogeneous income profiles.

Responsiveness of astrocytes in serum-free aggregate cultures to epidermal growth factor: dependence on the cell cycle and the epidermal growth factor concentration.

Serum-free aggregating cell cultures of fetal rat telencephalon treated with low doses (0.5 nM) of epidermal growth factor (EGF) showed a small, transient increase in DNA synthesis but no significant changes in total DNA and protein content. By contrast, treatment with high doses (13 nM) of EGF caused a marked stimulation of DNA synthesis as well as a net increase in DNA and protein content. The expression of the astrocyte-specific enzyme, glutamine synthetase, was greatly enhanced both at low and at high EGF concentrations. These results suggest that at low concentration EGF stimulates exclusively the differentiation of astrocytes, whereas at high concentration, EGF has also a mitogenic effect. Nonproliferating astrocytes in cultures treated with 0.4 microM 1-beta-D-arabinofuranosyl-cytosine were refractory to EGF treatment, indicating that their responsiveness to EGF is cell cycle-dependent. Binding studies using a crude membrane fraction of 5-day cultures showed a homogeneous population of EGF binding sites (Kd approximately equal to 2.6 nM). Specific EGF binding sites were found also in non-proliferating (and nonresponsive) cultures, although they showed slightly reduced affinity and binding capacity. This finding suggests that the cell cycle-dependent control of astroglial responsiveness to EGF does not occur at the receptor level. However, it was found that the specific EGF binding sites disappear with progressive cellular differentiation.

Endotoxin impairs cardiac hemodynamics by affecting loading conditions but not by reducing cardiac inotropism.

Acute myocardial dysfunction is a typical manifestation of septic shock. Experimentally, the administration of endotoxin [lipopolysacharride (LPS)] to laboratory animals is frequently used to study such dysfunction. However, a majority of studies used load-dependent indexes of cardiac function [including ejection fraction (EF) and maximal systolic pressure increment (dP/dt(max))], which do not directly explore cardiac inotropism. Therefore, we evaluated the direct effects of LPS on myocardial contractility, using left ventricular (LV) pressure-volume catheters in mice. Male BALB/c mice received an intraperitoneal injection of E. coli LPS (1, 5, 10, or 20 mg/kg). After 2, 6, or 20 h, cardiac function was analyzed in anesthetized, mechanically ventilated mice. All doses of LPS induced a significant drop in LV stroke volume and a trend toward reduced cardiac output after 6 h. Concomitantly, there was a significant decrease of LV preload (LV end-diastolic volume), with no apparent change in LV afterload (evaluated by effective arterial elastance and systemic vascular resistance). Load-dependent indexes of LV function were markedly reduced at 6 h, including EF, stroke work, and dP/dt(max). In contrast, there was no reduction of load-independent indexes of LV contractility, including end-systolic elastance (ejection phase measure of contractility) and the ratio dP/dt(max)/end-diastolic volume (isovolumic phase measure of contractility), the latter showing instead a significant increase after 6 h. All changes were transient, returning to baseline values after 20 h. Therefore, the alterations of cardiac function induced by LPS are entirely due to altered loading conditions, but not to reduced contractility, which may instead be slightly increased.

Skill-biased technological change and the business cycle

Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States hasbeen biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles?We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identifyskill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions. Hours fallin response to skill-biased technology shocks, indicating that at least part of thetechnology-induced fall in total hours is due to a compositional shift in labordemand. Skill-biased technology shocks have no effect on the relative price ofinvestment, suggesting that capital and skill are not complementary in aggregateproduction.

An evaluation of the life-cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior

In this paper we explore the effects of the minimum pension program on welfare andretirement in Spain. This is done with a stylized life-cycle model which provides a convenient analytical characterization of optimal behavior. We use data from the Spanish Social Security to estimate the behavioral parameters of the model and then simulate the changes induced by the minimum pension in aggregate retirement patterns. The impact is substantial: there is threefold increase in retirement at 60 (the age of first entitlement) with respect to the economy without minimum pensions, and total early retirement (before or at 60) is almost 50% larger.

Le cycle de la conjoncture chez Schumpeter : éternel retour du même ?

Cet article s'inscrit dans la lignée de précédents travaux visant à rapprocher l'entrepreneur schumpétérien et le surhumain nietzschéen. Les deux partagent une créativité pouvant s'interpréter comme l'extériorisation d'un surcroît de force qui, dans l'optique nietzschéenne, s'assimile à la source extra-morale de l'accrois- sement de la vie. Reste à savoir si le cadre dans lequel ils évoluent est le même. Au-delà d'une approche historique du cycle de la conjoncture, notre hypothèse est que l'approche philosophique d'un cycle du devenir s'avère être féconde pour une interprétation enrichie du cycle de la conjoncture, complétant et prolongeant ainsi notre interprétation du surhumain et de l'entrepreneur. Abstract: This article is in line with previous works aiming to analyse together Schumpeter's entrepreneur and Nietzsche's superhuman. Both share a creativity that can be interpreted as the externalization of an extra force. The latter, through Nietzsche's perspective, is very close to the extra-moral source of the increase of life. But what we have not analysed yet, is the context in which each of

Life cycle of Phoebemima ensifera Tippmann (Coleoptera, Cerambycidae)

An account of host plant selection, larval development and behaviour, and behaviour of adult Phoebemima ensifera. Illustrations of the host plant, plant parts, larva, pupa, and adult are provided.

Use of a combined ex vivo/in vivo population approach for screening of human genes involved in the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 life cycle for variants influencing disease progression.

Humans differ substantially with respect to susceptibility to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). We evaluated variants of nine host genes participating in the viral life cycle for their role in modulating HIV-1 infection. Alleles were assessed ex vivo for their impact on viral replication in purified CD4 T cells from healthy blood donors (n = 128). Thereafter, candidate alleles were assessed in vivo in a cohort of HIV-1-infected individuals (n = 851) not receiving potent antiretroviral therapy. As a benchmark test, we tested 12 previously reported host genetic variants influencing HIV-1 infection as well as single nucleotide polymorphisms in the nine candidate genes. This led to the proposition of three alleles of PML, TSG101, and PPIA as potentially associated with differences in progression of HIV-1 disease. In a model considering the combined effects of new and previously reported gene variants, we estimated that their effect might be responsible for lengthening or shortening by up to 2.8 years the period from 500 CD4 T cells/mul to <200 CD4 T cells/mul.

Serum procalcitonin as a marker of post-cardiac arrest syndrome and long-term neurological recovery, but not of early-onset infections, in comatose post-anoxic patients treated with therapeutic hypothermia.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship of early serum procalcitonin (PCT) levels with the severity of post-cardiac arrest syndrome (PCAS), long-term neurological recovery and the risk of early-onset infections in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA) treated with therapeutic hypothermia (TH). METHODS: A prospective cohort of adult comatose CA patients treated with TH (33°C, for 24h) admitted to the medical/surgical intensive care unit, Lausanne University Hospital, was studied. Serum PCT was measured early after CA, at two time-points (days 1 and 2). The SOFA score was used to quantify the severity of PCAS. Diagnosis of early-onset infections (within the first 7 days of ICU stay) was made after review of clinical, radiological and microbiological data. Neurological recovery at 3 months was assessed with Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC), and was dichotomized as favorable (CPC 1-2) vs. unfavorable (CPC 3-5). RESULTS: From December 2009 to April 2012, 100 patients (median age 64 [interquartile range 55-73] years, median time from collapse to ROSC 20 [11-30]min) were studied. Peak PCT correlated with SOFA score at day 1 (Spearman's R=0.44, p<0.0001) and was associated with neurological recovery at 3 months (peak PCT 1.08 [0.35-4.45]ng/ml in patients with CPC 1-2 vs. 3.07 [0.89-9.99] ng/ml in those with CPC 3-5, p=0.01). Peak PCT did not differ significantly between patients with early-onset vs. no infections (2.14 [0.49-6.74] vs. 1.53 [0.46-5.38]ng/ml, p=0.49). CONCLUSIONS: Early elevations of serum PCT levels correlate with the severity of PCAS and are associated with worse neurological recovery after CA and TH. In contrast, elevated serum PCT did not correlate with early-onset infections in this setting.