The Basic Reproduction Number Obtained From Jacobian And Next Generation Matrices - A Case Study Of Dengue Transmission Modelling.

The basic reproduction number is a key parameter in mathematical modelling of transmissible diseases. From the stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium, by applying Routh-Hurwitz criteria, a threshold is obtained, which is called the basic reproduction number. However, the application of spectral radius theory on the next generation matrix provides a different expression for the basic reproduction number, that is, the square root of the previously found formula. If the spectral radius of the next generation matrix is defined as the geometric mean of partial reproduction numbers, however the product of these partial numbers is the basic reproduction number, then both methods provide the same expression. In order to show this statement, dengue transmission modelling incorporating or not the transovarian transmission is considered as a case study. Also tuberculosis transmission and sexually transmitted infection modellings are taken as further examples.

Circulating Levels Of Chemokines In Psoriasis.

Chemokines may contribute to local and systemic inflammation in patients with psoriasis. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of chemokine ligands and receptors in the recruitment of T cells into psoriatic lesional skin and synovial fluid. The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of Th1-related chemokines in psoriasis and to investigate any association with disease severity. We quantified serum levels of CXCL9, CXCL10 and CXCL16 and the frequencies of CD4+CXCR3+ T lymphocytes through ELISA and flow cytometry, respectively. A total of 38 patients with psoriasis and 33 controls were included. There were no significant differences in chemokine levels between psoriasis and control groups. Patients with psoriatic arthritis had lower median level of CXCL10 when compared with controls (p=0.03). There were no significant correlations between serum chemokines analyzed and disease severity. Frequencies of CD4+CXCR3+ T cells were lower in patients with psoriasis than in controls (p<0.01). A sensitivity analysis excluding patients on systemic therapy yielded similar results. Serum concentrations of CXCL9, CXCL10 and CXCL16 were not increased in the psoriasis group or correlated with disease severity. Systemic levels of chemokine ligands do not seem to be sensitive biomarkers of disease activity or accurate parameters to predict response to therapy. Frequencies of CD4+CXCR3+ T cells were decreased in the peripheral blood of psoriasis patients, possibly due to recruitment to inflammatory lesions.

Cumulative doses of radioiodine in the treatment of differentiated thyroid carcinoma: knowing when to stop

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the efficacy of cumulative doses (CDs) of 131I-iodide therapy (RIT) in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The probability of progressive disease according to CDs was evaluated in patients < 45 years old and > 45 years old and correlated to tumor-node-metastasis (TNM), thyroglobulin values, histological types and variants, age, and zduration of the disease. RESULTS: At the end of a follow-up period of 69 ± 56 months, 85 out of 150 DTC patients submitted to fixed doses RIT had no evidence of disease, 47 had stable disease and 18 had progressive disease. Higher CDs were used in the more aggressive variants (p < 0.0001), higher TNM stages (p < 0.0001), and follicular carcinomas (p = 0.0034). Probability of disease progression was higher with CDs > 600 mCi in patients > 45 years old and with CDs > 800 mCi in patients < 45 years. CONCLUSION: Although some patients may still respond to high CDs, the impact of further RIT should be carefully evaluated and other treatment strategies may be warranted.

Relationship between periodontitis and rheumatoid arthritis and the effect of non-surgical periodontal treatment

This study analyzed the association of periodontal disease (PD) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Seventy-five 35-60-year-old patients were assigned to 5 groups according to the presence (+) or not (-) of PD and RA and the treatment received (TR+) or not (TR-) for PD. Group 3 uses total prosthesis (TP). Clinical and laboratory evaluations were performed at baseline, 3 and 6 months of follow-up by probing pocket depth, bleeding on probing and plaque index for PD, HAQ, DAS28, SF-36 and laboratory: AAG, ESR, CRP for RA. Statistically significant differences for PD after 3 (p=0.0055) and after 6 months (p=0.0066) were obtained in Group 1 (RA+PD+TR+) and 2(RA+PD+TR-); significant reduction in the % of BOP after 6 months (p=0.0128) and significant reduction in the % of Pl after 3 (p=0.0128) and 6 months (p=0.0002) in Group 1. Statistically significant differences between Groups 1 and 3 (RA+TP) for DAS28 at baseline and after 3 months were observed, but not after 6 months. No other parameters for RA were significantly affected. The relationship between RA and PD disease activities is not clear, but the importance of periodontal treatment in the control of inflammation to avoid tooth extraction is evident.

Occurrence of anti-Neospora caninum and anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies in dogs with visceral leishmaniasis

Uninfected dogs and those naturally infected with Leishmania chagasi exhibiting different clinical forms of disease were evaluated for the presence of anti-Neospora caninum and anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies. Blood samples were collected from 110 mongrel dogs. Sera were tested using the indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT), and the animals with visceral leishmaniasis (VL) (n=60) were classified clinically. Out of the 110 sera investigated, 5 (4.5%) were positive for N. caninum (IFAT≥50) and 36 (32.7%) for T. gondii (IFAT≥16). Anti-L. chagasi antibody titers in asymptomatic dogs (n=10) were found to be significantly lower (P<0.05) than those in oligosymptomatic ones (n=22), which were in turn significantly lower (P<0.05) than those in symptomatic ones (n=28). No association between Leishmania and N. caninum infections was observed. Among dogs infected with L. chagasi, a tendency (P=0.053) towards an association between the infection with T. gondii and the appearance of VL symptoms was observed, suggesting that the clinical manifestation of VL in dogs may enhance their susceptibility to T. gondii. The possible influence of the immunosuppressive status of canine leishmaniasis in the different clinical forms of the disease is discussed.

Microbiological and histopathological aspects of canine pyometra

As pyometra is recognized as one of the main causes of disease and death in the bitch the purposes of this study were to evaluate microbiological and histopathological aspects of canine pyometra and to research the virulence factors of the E. coli isolates identifying possible risks to human health. The microbiological isolation from the intrauterine contents of 100 dogs with pyometra was carried out and the virulence factors in the E. coli strains were identified using PCR method. This study also consisted of the counting of microorganisms colonies forming units in samples of intrauterine content, tests of antimicrobial susceptibility of the E. coli isolates and the histological examination of the uterus. E. coli was the most prevalent microorganism isolated (76.6%) and 120 strains (79.5%) were positive for sfa, 86 (56.9%) were positive for cnf, 87 (57.6%) were positive for pap, 52 (34.4%) were positive for hly, 51 (33.8%) were positive for iuc and 5 (3.3%) were positive for afa genes. One observed more sensitivity of E. coli to norfloxacin, polimixin B, sulphazotrin, chloranfenicol and enrofloxacin. In 42% of the samples of uterine walls where microorganisms were isolated, the sizes of the areas of the inflammatory responses corresponded to 39-56%. Virulence factors were identified in 98.0% of the strains evaluated, demonstrating a high frequency of potentially pathogenic E. coli. It must be considered that dogs are animals that are living in close proximity to man for thousands of years and have an important role in the transmission of E. coli to other animals and to man.

Short report: historical analysis of a near disaster: Anopheles gambiae in Brazil

Attributed to human-mediated dispersal, a species of the Anopheles gambiae complex invaded northeastern Brazil in 1930. This event is considered unique among the intercontinental introductions of disease vectors and the most serious one: "Few threats to the future health of the Americas have equalled that inherent in the invasion of Brazil, in 1930, by Anopheles gambiae." Because it was only in the 1960s that An. gambiae was recognized as a species complex now including seven species, the precise species identity of the Brazilian invader remains a mystery. Here we used historical DNA analysis of museum specimens, collected at the time of invasion from Brazil, and aimed at the identification of the Brazilian invader. Our results identify the arid-adapted Anopheles arabiensis as being the actual invading species. Establishing the identity of the species, in addition to being of intrinsic historical interest, can inform future threats of this sort especially in a changing environment. Furthermore, these results highlight the potential danger of human-mediated range expansions of insect disease vectors and the importance of museum collections in retrieving historical information

Efficacy of sweet solutions for analgesia in infants between 1 and 12 months of age: a systematic review

Objective To compare the efficacy of oral sweet solutions to water or no treatment in infants aged 1-12 months during immunisation. Methods Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were retrieved through internet searches or manual searches of reference lists. Search terms included newborn, infant, pain, sucrose and alternative names for sweet solutions. Summary estimates with 95% CIs were calculated and included relative risk (RR), risk difference (RD) and number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB) for dichotomous outcomes, and weighted mean differences (WMD) for continuous outcomes. Where pooling of results was not possible, a narrative summary of study results is presented. Results Of the 695 studies identified, 14 RCTs with 1674 injections met the inclusion criteria. Sucrose or glucose, compared to water or no treatment decreased crying during or following immunisation in 13 of the 14 studies. Infants receiving 30% glucose (three trials, 243 infants) had a decreased RR in crying incidence following immunisation (typical RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.93; RD -0.17, 95% CI -0.29 to -0.05; NNTB 6, 95% CI 3 to 20). With sucrose or glucose, there was a 10% WMD reduction in proportion of crying time (95% CI - 18 to - 2) and a 12 s reduction in crying duration (95% CI - 23 to -0.7 s). An optimal dose of sucrose or glucose could not be ascertained due to the varied volumes and concentrations used. Conclusion Infants aged 1-12 months administered sucrose or glucose before immunisation had moderately reduced incidence and duration of crying. Healthcare professionals should consider using sucrose or glucose before and during immunisation.

Age of Child, More than HPV Type, Is Associated with Clinical Course in Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis

Background: RRP is a devastating disease in which papillomas in the airway cause hoarseness and breathing difficulty. The disease is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) 6 or 11 and is very variable. Patients undergo multiple surgeries to maintain a patent airway and in order to communicate vocally. Several small studies have been published in which most have noted that HPV 11 is associated with a more aggressive course. Methodology/Principal Findings: Papilloma biopsies were taken from patients undergoing surgical treatment of RRP and were subjected to HPV typing. 118 patients with juvenile-onset RRP with at least 1 year of clinical data and infected with a single HPV type were analyzed. HPV 11 was encountered in 40% of the patients. By our definition, most of the patients in the sample (81%) had run an aggressive course. The odds of a patient with HPV 11 running an aggressive course were 3.9 times higher than that of patients with HPV 6 (Fisher's exact p = 0.017). However, clinical course was more closely associated with age of the patient (at diagnosis and at the time of the current surgery) than with HPV type. Patients with HPV 11 were diagnosed at a younger age (2.4y) than were those with HPV 6 (3.4y) (p = 0.014). Both by multiple linear regression and by multiple logistic regression HPV type was only weakly associated with metrics of disease course when simultaneously accounting for age. Conclusions/Significance Abstract: The course of RRP is variable and a quarter of the variability can be accounted for by the age of the patient. HPV 11 is more closely associated with a younger age at diagnosis than it is associated with an aggressive clinical course. These data suggest that there are factors other than HPV type and age of the patient that determine disease course.

Prognostic evaluation of early rheumatoid arthritis

The progression of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is quite variable, ranging from very mild or subclinical forms (approx. 10%) to rapidly progressing and debilitating forms (10-15%). The majority of patients present with an intermediate stage with episodes of exacerbation separated by periods of relative inactivity, which evolves to progressive functional losses. To optimise the therapeutic management of early RA it is necessary to perform periodic evaluations of the clinical and laboratory test responses to the treatment instituted, as well as the parameters indicating disease prognosis. Composite measures are frequently used to evaluate the disease activity score (DAS), including the response criteria of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR), the response criteria and the DAS according to the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) and the composite indices of disease activity (CIDsA): DAS, the index of disease activity based on 28 joints (DAS 28), the simplified disease activity index (SDAI) and the clinical disease activity index (CDAI). The evaluation of prognosis includes investigation of the absence or occurrence of disease and joint damage remission. Due to the multifaceted nature of RA, no single clinical or laboratory parameter is able to describe satisfactorily the level of inflammatory activity or the disease prognosis at any given time.

A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

Prevalence of non-communicable diseases in Brazilian children: follow-up at school age of two Brazilian birth cohorts of the 1990's

Background: Few cohort studies have been conducted in low and middle-income countries to investigate non-communicable diseases among school-aged children. This article aims to describe the methodology of two birth cohorts, started in 1994 in Ribeirao Preto (RP), a more developed city, and in 1997/98 in Sao Luis (SL), a less developed town. Methods: Prevalences of some non-communicable diseases during the first follow-up of these cohorts were estimated and compared. Data on singleton live births were obtained at birth (2858 in RP and 2443 in SL). The follow-up at school age was conducted in RP in 2004/05, when the children were 9-11 years old and in SL in 2005/06, when the children were 7-9 years old. Follow-up rates were 68.7% in RP (790 included) and 72.7% in SL (673 participants). The groups of low (<2500 g) and high (>= 4250 g) birthweight were oversampled and estimates were corrected by weighting. Results: In the more developed city there was a higher percentage of non-nutritive sucking habits (69.1% vs 47.9%), lifetime bottle use (89.6% vs 68.3%), higher prevalence of primary headache in the last 15 days (27.9% vs 13.0%), higher positive skin tests for allergens (44.3% vs 25.3%) and higher prevalence of overweight (18.2% vs 3.6%), obesity (9.5% vs 1.8%) and hypertension (10.9% vs 4.6%). In the less developed city there was a larger percentage of children with below average cognitive function (28.9% vs 12.2%), mental health problems (47.4% vs 38.4%), depression (21.6% vs 6.0%) and underweight (5.8% vs 3.6%). There was no difference in the prevalence of bruxism, recurrent abdominal pain, asthma and bronchial hyperresponsiveness between cities. Conclusions: Some non-communicable diseases were highly prevalent, especially in the more developed city. Some high rates suggest that the burden of non-communicable diseases will be high in the future, especially mental health problems.

How much do smoking and alcohol consumption explain socioeconomic inequalities in head and neck cancer risk?

Background A higher burden of head and neck cancer has been reported to affect deprived populations. This study assessed the association between socioeconomic status and head and neck cancer, aiming to explore how this association is related to differences of tobacco and alcohol consumption across socioeconomic strata. Methods We conducted a case-control study in Sao Paulo, Brazil (1998-2006), including 1017 incident cases of oral, pharyngeal and laryngeal cancer, and 951 sex- and age-matched controls. Education and occupation were distal determinants in the hierarchical approach; cumulative exposure to tobacco and alcohol were proximal risk factors. Outcomes of the hierarchical model were compared with fully adjusted ORs. Results Individuals with lower education (OR 2.27; 95% CI 1.61 to 3.19) and those performing manual labour (OR 1.55; 95% CI 1.26 to 1.92) had a higher risk of disease. However, 54% of the association with lower education and 45% of the association with manual labour were explained by proximal lifestyle exposures, and socioeconomic status remained significantly associated with disease when adjusted for smoking and alcohol consumption. Conclusions Socioeconomic differences in head and neck cancer are partially attributable to the distribution of tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption across socioeconomic strata. Additional mediating factors may explain the remaining variation of socioeconomic status on head and neck cancer.

Penicillin-resistant pneumococcus and risk of treatment failure in pneumonia

Objective: To determine whether the presence of in vitro penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae increases the risk of clinical failure in children hospitalised with severe pneumonia and treated with penicillin/ampicillin. Design: Multicentre, prospective, observational study. Setting: 12 tertiary-care centres in three countries in Latin America. Patients: 240 children aged 3-59 months, hospitalised with severe pneumonia and known in vitro susceptibility of S pneumoniae. Intervention: Patients were treated with intravenous penicillin/ampicillin after collection of blood and, when possible, pleural fluid for culture. The minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) test was used to determine penicillin susceptibility of the pneumococcal strains isolated. Children were continuously monitored until discharge. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was treatment failure (using clinical criteria). Results: Overall treatment failure was 21%. After allowing for different potential confounders, there was no evidence of association between treatment failure and in vitro resistance of S pneumoniae to penicillin according to the Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI)/National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards (NCCLS) interpretative standards ((adj)RR = 1.03; 95%Cl: 0.49-1.90 for resistant S pneumoniae). Conclusions: Intravenous penicillin/ampicillin remains the drug of choice for treating penicillin-resistant pneumococcal pneumonia in areas where the MIC does not exceed 2 mu g/ml.

Characterization of new IS elements and studies of their dispersion in two subspecies of Leifsonia xyli

Background: Leifsonia xyli is a xylem-inhabiting bacterial species comprised of two subspecies: L. xyli subsp. xyli (Lxx) and L. xyli subsp. cynodontis (Lxc). Lxx is the causal agent of ratoon stunting disease in sugarcane commercial fields and Lxc colonizes the xylem of several grasses causing either mild or no symptoms of disease. The completely sequenced genome of Lxx provided insights into its biology and pathogenicity. Since IS elements are largely reported as an important source of bacterial genome diversification and nothing is known about their role in chromosome architecture of L. xyli, a comparative analysis of Lxc and Lxx elements was performed. Results: Sample sequencing of Lxc genome and comparative analysis with Lxx complete DNA sequence revealed a variable number of IS transposable elements acting upon genomic diversity. A detailed characterization of Lxc IS elements and a comparative review with IS elements of Lxx are presented. Each genome showed a unique set of elements although related to same IS families when considering features such as similarity among transposases, inverted and direct repeats, and element size. Most of the Lxc and Lxx IS families assigned were reported to maintain transposition at low levels using translation regulatory mechanisms, consistent with our in silico analysis. Some of the IS elements were found associated with rearrangements and specific regions of each genome. Differences were also found in the effect of IS elements upon insertion, although none of the elements were preferentially associated with gene disruption. A survey of transposases among genomes of Actinobacteria showed no correlation between phylogenetic relatedness and distribution of IS families. By using Southern hybridization, we suggested that diversification of Lxc isolates is also mediated by insertion sequences in probably recent events. Conclusion: Collectively our data indicate that transposable elements are involved in genome diversification of Lxc and Lxx. The IS elements were probably acquired after the divergence of the two subspecies and are associated with genome organization and gene contents. In addition to enhancing understanding of IS element dynamics in general, these data will contribute to our ongoing comparative analyses aimed at understanding the biological differences of the Lxc and Lxx.