967 resultados para Bayesian hypothesis testing
Resumo:
Microsatellite instability (MSI) testing in clinics is becoming increasingly widespread; therefore, there is an urgent need for methodology standardization and the availability of quality control. This study is aimed to assess the interlaboratory reproducibility of MSI testing in archive samples by using a panel of 5 recently introduced, mononucleotide repeats (MNR). The quality control involved 8 European institutions. Participants were supplied with DNA extracted from 15 archive colon carcinoma samples and from the corresponding normal tissues. Every group was asked to assess the MSI status of the samples by using the BAT25, BAT26, NR21, NR24, and NR27 mononucleotide markers. Four institutions repeated the analysis using the NCI reference panel to confirm the results obtained with the MNR markers. The overall concordance among institutions for MSI analyses at single locus level was 97.7% when using the MNR panel and 95.0% with the NCI one. The laboratories obtained a full agreement in scoring the MSI status of each patient sample, both using the mononucleotide and the NCI marker sets. With the NCI marker set, however, concordance was lowered to 85.7% when considering the MSI-Low phenotype. Concordance between the 2 panels in scoring the MSI status of each sample was complete if no discrimination was made between MSI-Stable and MSI-L, whereas it dropped to 76.7% if MSI-L was considered. In conclusion, the use of the MNR panel seems to be a robust approach that yields a very high level of reproducibility. The results obtained with the 5 MNR are diagnostically consistent with those obtained by the use of the NCI markers, except for the MSI-Low phenotype.
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Imatinib is the standard of care for patients with advanced metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), and is also approved for adjuvant treatment in patients at substantial risk of relapse. Studies have shown that maximizing benefit from imatinib depends on long-term administration at recommended doses. Pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic factors, adherence, and drug-drug interactions can affect exposure to imatinib and impact clinical outcomes. This article reviews the relevance of these factors to imatinib's clinical activity and response in the context of what has been demonstrated in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML), and in light of new data correlating imatinib exposure to response in patients with GIST. Because of the wide inter-patient variability in drug exposure with imatinib in both CML and GIST, blood level testing (BLT) may play a role in investigating instances of suboptimal response, unusually severe toxicities, drug-drug interactions, and suspected non-adherence. Published clinical data in CML and in GIST were considered, including data from a PK substudy of the B2222 trial correlating imatinib blood levels with clinical responses in patients with GIST. Imatinib trough plasma levels <1100ng/mL were associated with lower rates of objective response and faster development of progressive disease in patients with GIST. These findings have been supported by other analyses correlating free imatinib (unbound) levels with response. These results suggest a future application for imatinib BLT in predicting and optimizing therapeutic response. Nevertheless, early estimates of threshold imatinib blood levels must be confirmed prospectively in future studies and elaborated for different patient subgroups.
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The McIsaac scoring system is a tool designed to predict the probability of streptococcal pharyngitis in children aged 3 to 17 years with a sore throat. Although it does not allow the physician to make the diagnosis of streptococcal pharyngitis, it enables to identify those children with a sore throat in whom rapid antigen detection tests have a good predictive value.
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Local adaptation can drive the divergence of populations but identification of the traits under selection remains a major challenge in evolutionary biology. Reciprocal transplant experiments are ideal tests of local adaptation, yet rarely used for higher vertebrates because of the mobility and potential invasiveness of non-native organisms. Here, we reciprocally transplanted 2500 brown trout (Salmo trutta) embryos from five populations to investigate local adaptation in early life history traits. Embryos were bred in a full-factorial design and raised in natural riverbeds until emergence. Customized egg capsules were used to simulate the natural redd environment and allowed tracking the fate of every individual until retrieval. We predicted that 1) within sites, native populations would outperform non-natives, and 2) across sites, populations would show higher performance at 'home' compared to 'away' sites. RESULTS: There was no evidence for local adaptation but we found large differences in survival and hatching rates between sites, indicative of considerable variation in habitat quality. Survival was generally high across all populations (55% +/- 3%), but ranged from 4% to 89% between sites. Average hatching rate was 25% +/- 3% across populations ranging from 0% to 62% between sites. CONCLUSION: This study provides rare empirical data on variation in early life history traits in a population network of a salmonid, and large-scale breeding and transplantation experiments like ours provide powerful tests for local adaptation. Despite the recently reported genetic and morphological differences between the populations in our study area, local adaptation at the embryo level is small, non-existent, or confined to ecological conditions that our experiment could not capture.
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Epidemiological and biochemical studies show that the sporadic forms of Alzheimer's disease (AD) are characterized by the following hallmarks: (a) An exponential increase with age; (b) Selective neuronal vulnerability; (c) Inverse cancer comorbidity. The present article appeals to these hallmarks to evaluate and contrast two competing models of AD: the amyloid hypothesis (a neuron-centric mechanism) and the Inverse Warburg hypothesis (a neuron-astrocytic mechanism). We show that these three hallmarks of AD conflict with the amyloid hypothesis, but are consistent with the Inverse Warburg hypothesis, a bioenergetic model which postulates that AD is the result of a cascade of three events-mitochondrial dysregulation, metabolic reprogramming (the Inverse Warburg effect), and natural selection. We also provide an explanation for the failures of the clinical trials based on amyloid immunization, and we propose a new class of therapeutic strategies consistent with the neuroenergetic selection model.
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The feasibility of opportunistic screening of urogenital infections with Chlamydia trachomatis was assessed in a cross-sectional study in 2012, in two cantons of south-western Switzerland: Vaud and Valais. Sexually active persons younger than 30 years, not tested for C. trachomatis in the last three months, were invited for free C. trachomatis testing by PCR in urine or self-applied vaginal swabs. Of 2,461 consenting participants, 1,899 (77%) were women and all but six (0.3%) submitted a sample. Forty-seven per cent of female and 25% of male participants were younger than 20 years. Overall, 134 (5.5%) of 2,455 tested participants had a positive result and were followed up. Seven per cent of all candidates for screening were not invited, 10% of invited candidates were not eligible, 15% of the eligible candidates declined participation, 5% of tested participants testing positive were not treated, 29% of those treated were not retested after six months and 9% of those retested were positive for C. trachomatis. Opportunistic C. trachomatis testing proved technically feasible and acceptable, at least if free of charge. Men and peripheral rural regions were more difficult to reach. Efforts to increase testing and decrease dropout at all stages of the screening procedure are necessary.
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Aim Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location World-wide.Methods Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.
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Current nuclear medicine techniques for the localization of inflammatory processes are based on injection of 111In labelled autologous granulocytes which need to be isolated and radiolabelled in vitro before reinjection. A new technique is presented here that obviates the need for cell isolation by the direct intravenous injection of a granulocyte specific 123I labelled monoclonal antibody. In this publication the basic parameters of the antibody granulocyte interaction are described. Antibody binding does not inhibit vital functions of the granulocytes, such as chemotaxis and superoxide generation. Scatchard analysis of binding data reveals an apparent affinity of the antibody for granulocytes of 6.8 X 10(9) l/mol and approximately 7.1 X 10(4) binding sites per cell. Due to the high specificity of the antibody, the only expected interference is from CEA producing tumors.
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Testosterone abuse is conventionally assessed by the urinary testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio, levels above 4.0 being considered suspicious. A deletion polymorphism in the gene coding for UGT2B17 is strongly associated with reduced testosterone glucuronide (TG) levels in urine. Many of the individuals devoid of the gene would not reach a T/E ratio of 4.0 after testosterone intake. Future test programs will most likely shift from population based- to individual-based T/E cut-off ratios using Bayesian inference. A longitudinal analysis is dependent on an individual's true negative baseline T/E ratio. The aim was to investigate whether it is possible to increase the sensitivity and specificity of the T/E test by addition of UGT2B17 genotype information in a Bayesian framework. A single intramuscular dose of 500mg testosterone enanthate was given to 55 healthy male volunteers with either two, one or no allele (ins/ins, ins/del or del/del) of the UGT2B17 gene. Urinary excretion of TG and the T/E ratio was measured during 15 days. The Bayesian analysis was conducted to calculate the individual T/E cut-off ratio. When adding the genotype information, the program returned lower individual cut-off ratios in all del/del subjects increasing the sensitivity of the test considerably. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to discriminate between a true negative baseline T/E value and a false negative one without knowledge of the UGT2B17 genotype. UGT2B17 genotype information is crucial, both to decide which initial cut-off ratio to use for an individual, and for increasing the sensitivity of the Bayesian analysis.
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This paper discusses the role of deterministic components in the DGP and in the auxiliary regression model which underlies the implementation of the Fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF) test for I(1) against I(d) processes with d ∈ [0, 1). This is an important test in many economic applications because I(d) processess with d & 1 are mean-reverting although, when 0.5 ≤ d & 1,, like I(1) processes, they are nonstationary. We show how simple is the implementation of the FDF in these situations, and argue that it has better properties than LM tests. A simple testing strategy entailing only asymptotically normally distributed tests is also proposed. Finally, an empirical application is provided where the FDF test allowing for deterministic components is used to test for long-memory in the per capita GDP of several OECD countries, an issue that has important consequences to discriminate between growth theories, and on which there is some controversy.
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Genome-wide scans of genetic differentiation between hybridizing taxa can identify genome regions with unusual rates of introgression. Regions of high differentiation might represent barriers to gene flow, while regions of low differentiation might indicate adaptive introgression-the spread of selectively beneficial alleles between reproductively isolated genetic backgrounds. Here we conduct a scan for unusual patterns of differentiation in a mosaic hybrid zone between two mussel species, Mytilus edulis and M. galloprovincialis. One outlying locus, mac-1, showed a characteristic footprint of local introgression, with abnormally high frequency of edulis-derived alleles in a patch of M. galloprovincialis enclosed within the mosaic zone, but low frequencies outside of the zone. Further analysis of DNA sequences showed that almost all of the edulis allelic diversity had introgressed into the M. galloprovincialis background in this patch. We then used a variety of approaches to test the hypothesis that there had been adaptive introgression at mac-1. Simulations and model fitting with maximum-likelihood and approximate Bayesian computation approaches suggested that adaptive introgression could generate a "soft sweep," which was qualitatively consistent with our data. Although the migration rate required was high, it was compatible with the functioning of an effective barrier to gene flow as revealed by demographic inferences. As such, adaptive introgression could explain both the reduced intraspecific differentiation around mac-1 and the high diversity of introgressed alleles, although a localized change in barrier strength may also be invoked. Together, our results emphasize the need to account for the complex history of secondary contacts in interpreting outlier loci.
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The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.
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The obesity epidemic is associated with the recent availability of highly palatable and inexpensive caloric food as well as important changes in lifestyle. Genetic factors, however, play a key role in regulating energy balance and numerous twin studies have estimated the BMI heritability between 40 and 70%. While common variants, identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) point toward new pathways, their effect size are too low to be of any use in the clinic. This review therefore concentrates on genes and genomic regions associated with very high risks of human obesity. Although there are no consensus guidelines, we review how the knowledge on these "causal factors" can be translated into the clinic for diagnostic purposes. We propose genetic workups guided by clinical manifestations in patients with severe early-onset obesity. While etiological diagnoses are unequivocal in a minority of patients, new genomic tools such as Comparative Genomic Hybridization (CGH) array, have allowed the identification of novel "causal" loci and next-generation sequencing brings the promise of accelerated pace for discoveries relevant to clinical practice.