940 resultados para Baxter-King, ciclos económicos, tendencia, Hodrick-Prescott, series.


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ENGLISH: We analyzed catches per unit of effort (CPUE) from the Japanese longline fishery for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) with regression tree methods. Regression trees have not previously been used to estimate time series of abundance indices fronl CPUE data. The "optimally sized" tree had 139 parameters; year, month, latitude, and longitude interacted to affect bigeye CPUE. The trend in tree-based abundance indices for the EPO was similar to trends estimated from a generalized linear model and fronl an empirical model that combines oceanographic data with information on the distribution of fish relative to environmental conditions. The regression tree was more parsimonious and would be easier to implement than the other two nl0dels, but the tree provided no information about the nlechanisms that caused bigeye CPUEs to vary in time and space. Bigeye CPUEs increased sharply during the mid-1980's and were more variable at the northern and southern edges of the fishing grounds. Both of these results can be explained by changes in actual abundance and changes in catchability. Results from a regression tree that was fitted to a subset of the data indicated that, in the EPO, bigeye are about equally catchable with regular and deep longlines. This is not consistent with observations that bigeye are more abundant at depth and indicates that classification by gear type (regular or deep longline) may not provide a good measure of capture depth. Asimulated annealing algorithm was used to summarize the tree-based results by partitioning the fishing grounds into regions where trends in bigeye CPUE were similar. Simulated annealing can be useful for designing spatial strata in future sampling programs. SPANISH: Analizamos la captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE) de la pesquería palangrera japonesa de atún patudo (Thunnus obesus) en el Océano Pacifico oriental (OPO) y central con métodos de árbol de regresión. Hasta ahora no se han usado árboles de regresión para estimar series de tiempo de índices de abundancia a partir de datos de CPUE. EI árbol de "tamaño optimo" tuvo 139 parámetros; ano, mes, latitud, y longitud interactuaron para afectar la CPUE de patudo. La tendencia en los índices de abundancia basados en árboles para el OPO fue similar a las tendencias estimadas con un modelo lineal generalizado y con un modelo empírico que combina datos oceanográficos con información sobre la distribución de los peces en relación con las condiciones ambientales. EI árbol de regresión fue mas parsimonioso y seria mas fácil de utilizar que los dos otros modelos, pero no proporciono información sobre los mecanismos que causaron que las CPUE de patudo valiaran en el tiempo y en el espacio. Las CPUE de patudo aumentaron notablemente a mediados de los anos 80 y fueron mas variables en los extremos norte y sur de la zona de pesca. Estos dos resultados pueden ser explicados por cambios en la abundancia real y cambios en la capturabilidad. Los resultados de un arbal de regresión ajustado a un subconjunto de los datos indican que, en el OPO, el patudo es igualmente capturable con palangres regulares y profundos. Esto no es consistente con observaciones de que el patudo abunda mas a profundidad e indica que clasificación por tipo de arte (palangre regular 0 profundo) podría no ser una buena medida de la profundidad de captura. Se uso un algoritmo de templado simulado para resumir los resultados basados en el árbol clasificando las zonas de pesca en zonas con tendencias similares en la CPUE de patudo. El templado simulado podría ser útil para diseñar estratos espaciales en programas futuros de muestreo. (PDF contains 45 pages.)

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The initial objective of Part I was to determine the nature of upper mantle discontinuities, the average velocities through the mantle, and differences between mantle structure under continents and oceans by the use of P'dP', the seismic core phase P'P' (PKPPKP) that reflects at depth d in the mantle. In order to accomplish this, it was found necessary to also investigate core phases themselves and their inferences on core structure. P'dP' at both single stations and at the LASA array in Montana indicates that the following zones are candidates for discontinuities with varying degrees of confidence: 800-950 km, weak; 630-670 km, strongest; 500-600 km, strong but interpretation in doubt; 350-415 km, fair; 280-300 km, strong, varying in depth; 100-200 km, strong, varying in depth, may be the bottom of the low-velocity zone. It is estimated that a single station cannot easily discriminate between asymmetric P'P' and P'dP' for lead times of about 30 sec from the main P'P' phase, but the LASA array reduces this uncertainty range to less than 10 sec. The problems of scatter of P'P' main-phase times, mainly due to asymmetric P'P', incorrect identification of the branch, and lack of the proper velocity structure at the velocity point, are avoided and the analysis shows that one-way travel of P waves through oceanic mantle is delayed by 0.65 to 0.95 sec relative to United States mid-continental mantle.

A new P-wave velocity core model is constructed from observed times, dt/dΔ's, and relative amplitudes of P'; the observed times of SKS, SKKS, and PKiKP; and a new mantle-velocity determination by Jordan and Anderson. The new core model is smooth except for a discontinuity at the inner-core boundary determined to be at a radius of 1215 km. Short-period amplitude data do not require the inner core Q to be significantly lower than that of the outer core. Several lines of evidence show that most, if not all, of the arrivals preceding the DF branch of P' at distances shorter than 143° are due to scattering as proposed by Haddon and not due to spherically symmetric discontinuities just above the inner core as previously believed. Calculation of the travel-time distribution of scattered phases and comparison with published data show that the strongest scattering takes place at or near the core-mantle boundary close to the seismic station.

In Part II, the largest events in the San Fernando earthquake series, initiated by the main shock at 14 00 41.8 GMT on February 9, 1971, were chosen for analysis from the first three months of activity, 87 events in all. The initial rupture location coincides with the lower, northernmost edge of the main north-dipping thrust fault and the aftershock distribution. The best focal mechanism fit to the main shock P-wave first motions constrains the fault plane parameters to: strike, N 67° (± 6°) W; dip, 52° (± 3°) NE; rake, 72° (67°-95°) left lateral. Focal mechanisms of the aftershocks clearly outline a downstep of the western edge of the main thrust fault surface along a northeast-trending flexure. Faulting on this downstep is left-lateral strike-slip and dominates the strain release of the aftershock series, which indicates that the downstep limited the main event rupture on the west. The main thrust fault surface dips at about 35° to the northeast at shallow depths and probably steepens to 50° below a depth of 8 km. This steep dip at depth is a characteristic of other thrust faults in the Transverse Ranges and indicates the presence at depth of laterally-varying vertical forces that are probably due to buckling or overriding that causes some upward redirection of a dominant north-south horizontal compression. Two sets of events exhibit normal dip-slip motion with shallow hypocenters and correlate with areas of ground subsidence deduced from gravity data. Several lines of evidence indicate that a horizontal compressional stress in a north or north-northwest direction was added to the stresses in the aftershock area 12 days after the main shock. After this change, events were contained in bursts along the downstep and sequencing within the bursts provides evidence for an earthquake-triggering phenomenon that propagates with speeds of 5 to 15 km/day. Seismicity before the San Fernando series and the mapped structure of the area suggest that the downstep of the main fault surface is not a localized discontinuity but is part of a zone of weakness extending from Point Dume, near Malibu, to Palmdale on the San Andreas fault. This zone is interpreted as a decoupling boundary between crustal blocks that permits them to deform separately in the prevalent crustal-shortening mode of the Transverse Ranges region.

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[EU]Gradu amaierako lan honetan, Industria Ingenieritza graduan zehar emandako zenbait irakasgaietan landutako kontzeptuak oinarri bezala hartuta SCARA robot industrialaren analisia egin da. Lau askatasun gradu dituzten robot hauek oso erabiliak dira industrian beraien lan ziklo azkar, karga handiak jasateko kapazitate, errepikortasun eta aplikazio ugariengatik. Proiektua, bi zati nagusitan banandu da: SCARA motako robot baten analisi zinematikoa, robotaren irudikapena eta ibilbideen sorkuntza Matlab programa erabiliz. Adept Cobra e-Vario 600, SCARA motako prototipo errealarekin interakzioa. Proiektuan zehar garatuko diren edukien egitura ondorengoa izango da: Lehenik eta behin, proiektuko lehen atalean proiektua kokatuta dagoen testuinguruaren azalpena emango da, baita ere testuinguru horrek gaur egun, sail desberdinetan, duen garrantzia. Proiektuko bigarren atalean, lana egiterakoan proposatu diren helburuak eta proiektuak eskaintzen dituen onurak adieraziko dira. Bestetik, proiektuko hirugarren atalean, gaiaren egoeran, SCARA robotera heldu arte robotek historian zehar izan duten garapena eta hauen sailkapen desberdinak azalduko dira. Laugarren atalean, metodologian, proiektu honetan garatuko diren bi zati nagusien deskribapen zehatza emango da. Azkenik, proiektuko azken atalean, lana burutzeko bete behar izan diren ataza bakoitzaren deskribapena eta iraupena, aurrekontua, arriskuen analisia eta proiektu honetatik atera ditugun ondorioak ematen dira.

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O afrouxamento dos parafusos protéticos é descrito na literatura como uma das complicações mais frequentes das próteses sobre implantes. Durante sua confecção, os profissionais sentem necessidade de remover várias vezes as próteses e/ou componentes protéticos, soltando e re-apertando os parafusos repetidamente. O principal objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a variação do torque de remoção de parafusos de fixação de pilares protéticos a implantes osteointegráveis após sucessivos ciclos de parafusamento e desparafusamento. Outro objetivo foi avaliar a influência do hexágono da base do pilar no torque de remoção dos parafusos. Para isso, foram utilizados 20 implantes de plataforma regular com hexágono externo e 20 pilares protéticos sextavados, que foram parafusados aos implantes com um parafuso de titânio, aplicando-se a este um torque de 32Ncm, por meio de um torquímetro digital. Os conjuntos implante/pilar/parafuso foram divididos em dois grupos: (1) pilares cujo hexágono da base foram removidos e (2) pilares convencionais, com hexágono na base. Cada conjunto recebeu uma restauração provisória e foi submetido a ciclagem mecânica por 15 minutos. Depois, os parafusos foram removidos, medindo-se o torque de remoção. Esta sequência foi repetida dez vezes e então o parafuso foi trocado por outro sem uso, e mais um ciclo foi realizado. Uma análise de regressão linear demonstrou nos dois grupos uma queda do torque de remoção do parafuso ao longo dos repetidos ciclos de inserção/remoção. A comparação entre os coeficientes da regressão nos dois grupos não revelou diferença entre eles. Também não houve diferença entre as médias das 5 últimas repetições e o 11 ciclo, com o parafuso novo. Concluiu-se que (1) repetidos parafusamentos e desparafusamentos promoveram a diminuição progressiva do torque de remoção dos parafusos, (2) a troca do parafuso por outro sem uso após dez ciclos de inserção/remoção não aumentou sua resistência ao afrouxamento, e (3) a remoção do hexágono da base do pilar protético não exerceu nenhum efeito sobre o torque de remoção do parafuso.