Systemological Bases of Business Intelligence

Sustainable development support, balanced scorecard development and business process modeling are viewed from the position of systemology. Extensional, intentional and potential properties of a system are considered as necessary to satisfy functional requirements of a meta-system. The correspondence between extensional, intentional and potential properties of a system and sustainable, unsustainable, crisis and catastrophic states of a system is determined. The inaccessibility cause of the system mission is uncovered. The correspondence between extensional, intentional and potential properties of a system and balanced scorecard perspectives is showed. The IDEF0 function modeling method is checked against balanced scorecard perspectives. The correspondence between balanced scorecard perspectives and IDEF0 notations is considered.

Sharing of value in business relationships:a theoretical model

This paper explores the sharing of value in business transactions. Although there is an increased usage of the terminology of value in marketing (such concepts as value based selling and pricing), as well as in purchasing (value-based purchasing), the definition of the term is still vague. In order to better understand the definition of value, the author’s argue that it is important to understand the sharing of value, in general and the element of power for the sharing of value in particular. The aim of this paper is to add to this debate and this requires us to critique the current models. The key process that the analysis of power will help to explain is the division of the available revenue stream flowing up the chain from the buyer's customers. If the buyer and supplier do not cooperate, then power will be key in the sharing of that money flow. If buyers and suppliers fully cooperate, they may be able to reduce their costs and/or increase the quality of the sales offering the buyer makes to their customer.

How leadership and commitment influence bank employees' adoption of their bank's values

Retail banking is facing many challenges, not least the loss of its customers' trust and loyalty. The economic crisis is forcing banks to examine their relationships with stakeholders and to offer greater reassurance that their brand promises will be delivered. More than ever, banks need to stand for something positive and valued by stakeholders. One way to achieve this is through paying more attention to brand values. Our article explores how values are adopted by employees within a bank. When employees 'live' their brand's values, their behaviour during customer interactions reflects this, encouraging the strengthening of customer relationships. Specifically, we test the relationship between leadership style, employee commitment, and the adoption of values. Data was collected from a survey of 438 branch employees in a leading Irish retail bank. The study found that a structured and directive leadership style was effective at encouraging the adoption of the bank's values. Moreover, when employees are committed to the organisation, this has a significant impact on their adoption of values. Thus, this study supports the literature which suggests that leadership and commitment are prerequisites for values adoption. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

The Long-Term impact of Business Support? - Exploring the Role of Evaluation Timing using Micro Data

The original contribution of this work is threefold. Firstly, this thesis develops a critical perspective on current evaluation practice of business support, with focus on the timing of evaluation. The general time frame applied for business support policy evaluation is limited to one to two, seldom three years post intervention. This is despite calls for long-term impact studies by various authors, concerned about time lags before effects are fully realised. This desire for long-term evaluation opposes the requirements by policy-makers and funders, seeking quick results. Also, current ‘best practice’ frameworks do not refer to timing or its implications, and data availability affects the ability to undertake long-term evaluation. Secondly, this thesis provides methodological value for follow-up and similar studies by using data linking of scheme-beneficiary data with official performance datasets. Thus data availability problems are avoided through the use of secondary data. Thirdly, this thesis builds the evidence, through the application of a longitudinal impact study of small business support in England, covering seven years of post intervention data. This illustrates the variability of results for different evaluation periods, and the value in using multiple years of data for a robust understanding of support impact. For survival, impact of assistance is found to be immediate, but limited. Concerning growth, significant impact centres on a two to three year period post intervention for the linear selection and quantile regression models – positive for employment and turnover, negative for productivity. Attribution of impact may present a problem for subsequent periods. The results clearly support the argument for the use of longitudinal data and analysis, and a greater appreciation by evaluators of the factor time. This analysis recommends a time frame of four to five years post intervention for soft business support evaluation.

The long-term impact of business support? - Exploring the role of evaluation timing using micro data

The original contribution of this work is threefold. Firstly, this thesis develops a critical perspective on current evaluation practice of business support, with focus on the timing of evaluation. The general time frame applied for business support policy evaluation is limited to one to two, seldom three years post intervention. This is despite calls for long-term impact studies by various authors, concerned about time lags before effects are fully realised. This desire for long-term evaluation opposes the requirements by policy-makers and funders, seeking quick results. Also, current ‘best practice’ frameworks do not refer to timing or its implications, and data availability affects the ability to undertake long-term evaluation. Secondly, this thesis provides methodological value for follow-up and similar studies by using data linking of scheme-beneficiary data with official performance datasets. Thus data availability problems are avoided through the use of secondary data. Thirdly, this thesis builds the evidence, through the application of a longitudinal impact study of small business support in England, covering seven years of post intervention data. This illustrates the variability of results for different evaluation periods, and the value in using multiple years of data for a robust understanding of support impact. For survival, impact of assistance is found to be immediate, but limited. Concerning growth, significant impact centres on a two to three year period post intervention for the linear selection and quantile regression models – positive for employment and turnover, negative for productivity. Attribution of impact may present a problem for subsequent periods. The results clearly support the argument for the use of longitudinal data and analysis, and a greater appreciation by evaluators of the factor time. This analysis recommends a time frame of four to five years post intervention for soft business support evaluation.

A Public-Private Partnership strukturális modelljeinek összevetése = Comparison of Public-Private Partnership models

A tanulmány a PPP különböző strukturális modelljeinek csoportosítását mutatja be, az egyes típusok rövid rendszerező áttekintésével. A tipológiák vizsgálata hasznos ahhoz, hogy a PPP projektek struktúrájának kialakításakor a különböző lehetőségeket mérlegelni tudjuk. Többféle megközelítésben lehet a modelleket tipizálni. Az együttműködés célja alapján a hatékonyság-, a minőség- és a finanszírozás-orientált modellek a legelterjedtebbek, a kockázatmegosztás módja alapján BOT, DBFO és koncessziós változatok, a haszonmegosztás szabályozása alapján árplafon-szabályozású, közvetlen haszonszabályozású, fixdíjas és árnyékáras megoldások a leginkább bevettek. A tanulmány ezek elemző bemutatása alapján arra a következtetésre jut, hogy a gyakorlati megoldások a legtöbb esetben az elméleti típusok valamilyen kombinációját tartalmazzák, a konkrét eset feltételeinek megfelelően. Így a gyakorlatban a fix tipológiák helyett alkalmasabb úgy megközelítenünk a PPP-t, mint egy folyamatosan változó, a helyi igényekhez idomuló jelenséget. A haszonszabályozó tipológia kapcsán a tanulmány melléklete rövid áttekintést nyújt a PPP esetében kritikus méltányos haszon becslésének lehetséges megoldásairól is. = This study shows a categorization of the different structural models of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. The typologies are useful to assess the available options when decisions on PPP project structures are made. There are different categorizing aspects. Based ont he key purpose of the partnership there are efficiency, quality and financing focused models. From a risk sharing point of view, BOT, DBFO and concession models are most typical. Regarding the regulation of returns price-cap models, ’open book’ models, fixed price and shadow pricing models are most common. Based on the analytical assessment of these, they study concludes that actual projects are mostly a combination of theoretical types, as required by the given case. Therefore in practice, it is more appropriate to approach PPP projects as a constantly shaping concept, adjustable to particular conditions. Supporting the approaches to the regulation of returns, an appendix of the study summarizes the different methods to estimate fair returns, a critical issue in PPP projects.

A közép-kelet-európai bankfúziók eredményessége (The success of the bank mergers in Central Eastern Europe)

Az elmúlt években a nagy európai bankcsoportok egyre több közép-kelet-európai bankot vásároltak fel. Tanulmányunkban a bankfúziók értékteremtő hatását részvényesi szemmel elemezzük. A közép-kelet-európai régióban tevékenykedő hét legnagyobb bankcsoport 2000 és 2008 közötti akvizíciós tranzakcióit az eseményelemzés módszerével vizsgáljuk. Úgy tűnik, a részvényesek összességében értékelik a bankcsoportok akvizíciós törekvéseit: a fúziók kicsit több mint felében pozitív a kumulált abnormális hozam, és enyhén pozitív az összes esemény abnormális hozamának átlaga is. Számításaink során elsőként az egyes bankcsoportok felvásárlási stratégiáját értékeljük. A felvásárlás bejelentése körüli háromnapos időintervallumot alapul véve, a Raiffeisen és az OTP stratégiája tekinthető a legsikeresebbnek, míg az Erste felvásárlásai a legkevésbé eredményesnek. Ezt követően rávilágítunk arra, hogy eltérő befektetői szándékból ugyan, de mind a legmagasabb, mind a legalacsonyabb értékű ügyletek esetében a pozitív abnormális hozamú fúziók vannak túlsúlyban. Végezetül megállapítjuk, hogy az országhatáron átívelő ügyletek befektetői megítélése nem rosszabb az országhatáron belüli tranzakciókénál. /===/ The big European banking groups have been buying up more and more banks in Central Eastern Europe. The study analyses the value-enhancing effects of the mergers from the shareholder’s angle by examining by occurrence analysis methods the Central East European acquisition transactions of the seven biggest banking groups between 2000 and 2008. The shareholders as a whole seem to appreciate the acquisition activity of the banks: cumulative abnormal yield is positive in over half the mergers and average abnormal yield of all occurrences is mildly positive as well. The authors evaluate first the acquisition strategies of each banking group. Based on a three-day period round the acquisition announcement, Raiffeisen and OTP seem to have the most successful strategies and Erste the least successful. Light is then shed on investment intentions in each case, but mergers with a positive abnormal yield predominate among the highest and the lowest value transactions. Finally, the investor evaluation of cross-border transactions is no worse than for domestic ones.

The network structure of Hungarian business clusters

This article investigates the attitudes to inter-firm co-operation in Hungary by analysing a special group of business networks: the business clusters. Following an overview of cluster policy, a wide range of selfproclaimed business clusters are identified. A small elite of these business networks evolves into successful, sustainable innovative business clusters. However, in the majority of cases, these consortia of interfirm co-operation are not based on a mutually satisfactory model, and as a consequence, many clusters do not survive in the longer term. The paper uses the concepts and models of social network theory in order to explain, why and under what circumstances inter-firm co-operation in clusters enhances the competitiveness of the network as a whole, or alternatively, under what circumstances the cluster remains dependent on Government subsidies. The empirical basis of the study is a thorough internet research about the Hungarian cluster movement; a questionnaire based expert survey among managers of clusters and member companies and a set of in-depth interviews among managers of self-proclaimed clusters. The last chapter analyises the applicability of social network theory in the analysis of business networks and a model involving the value chain is recommended.

Növelhető-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képessége az új klasszifikációs módszerek nélkül? (Can the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models be increased without new classification methods?)

A Bázel–2. tőkeegyezmény bevezetését követően a bankok és hitelintézetek Magyarországon is megkezdték saját belső minősítő rendszereik felépítését, melyek karbantartása és fejlesztése folyamatos feladat. A szerző arra a kérdésre keres választ, hogy lehetséges-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képességét növelni a hagyományos matematikai-statisztikai módszerek alkalmazásával oly módon, hogy a modellekbe a pénzügyi mutatószámok időbeli változásának mértékét is beépítjük. Az empirikus kutatási eredmények arra engednek következtetni, hogy a hazai vállalkozások pénzügyi mutatószámainak időbeli alakulása fontos információt hordoz a vállalkozás jövőbeli fizetőképességéről, mivel azok felhasználása jelentősen növeli a csődmodellek előre jelző képességét. A szerző azt is megvizsgálja, hogy javítja-e a megfigyelések szélsőségesen magas vagy alacsony értékeinek modellezés előtti korrekciója a modellek klasszifikációs teljesítményét. ______ Banks and lenders in Hungary also began, after the introduction of the Basel 2 capital agreement, to build up their internal rating systems, whose maintenance and development are a continuing task. The author explores whether it is possible to increase the predictive capacity of business-failure forecasting models by traditional mathematical-cum-statistical means in such a way that they incorporate the measure of change in the financial indicators over time. Empirical findings suggest that the temporal development of the financial indicators of firms in Hungary carries important information about future ability to pay, since the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models is greatly increased by using such indicators. The author also examines whether the classification performance of the models can be improved by correcting for extremely high or low values before modelling.

Bank financing of Hungarian SMEs: Getting over to credit crisis by state interventions

In this article we aimed to present and analyse the 21st century history of bank financing in the Hungarian small and medium enterprise (SME) sector in the period ranging from 2000 to 2012. The credit products offered by banks and credit unions are the most fundamental means of external financing capable of fulfilling the financing needs of a wide array of SMEs. The conditions of accessing credits and their prices exert a decisive influence on the profitability and business opportunities of SMEs. As a result of economic slowdown SMEs had to face higher interest rates, decreasing credit limits, and bank financing options that became increasingly slowly accessible alongside stricter conditions. Due to this process SMEs business performance had been falling continuously which has a destructive contribution to the national economy. In the first chapter of the article we present the dynamic development of credit financing in the Hungarian SME sector, along with the causes that triggered it, then we will continue with the negative tendencies dating from the onset of the 2008 debt crisis. In the second chapter we discuss the vicious circle, due to which the business performance of the SMEs, as well as the conditions of access to credits and their prices, have entered into a negative spiral. In the third and final chapter we make suggestions regarding the direction and means of necessary government intervention, in order to stop and reverse the negative tendencies observed in SME credit financing.

Empirical study of exchange rates in Brazil, Canada and the Caribbean

This dissertation examines the monetary models of exchange rate determination for Brazil, Canada, and two countries in the Caribbean, namely, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica. With the exception of Canada, the others adopted the floating regime during the past ten years.^ The empirical validity of four seminal models in exchange rate economics were determined. Three of these models were entirely classical (Bilson and Frenkel) or Keynesian (Dornbusch) in nature. The fourth model (Real Interest Differential Model) was a mixture of the two schools of economic theory.^ There is no clear empirical evidence of the validity of the monetary models. However, the signs of the coefficients of the nominal interest differential variable were as predicted by the Keynesian hypothesis in the case of Canada and as predicted by the Chicago theorists in the remaining countries. Moreover, in case of Brazil, due to hyperinflation, the exchange rate is heavily influenced by domestic money supply.^ I also tested the purchasing power parity (PPP) for this same set of countries. For both the monetary as well as the PPP hypothesis, I tested for co-integration and applied ordinary least squares estimation procedure. The error correction model was also used for the PPP model, to determine convergence to equilibrium.^ The validity of PPP is also questionable for my set of countries. Endogeinity among the regressors as well as the lack of proper price indices are the contributing factors. More importantly, Central Bank intervention negate rapid adjustment of price and exchange rates to their equilibrium value. However, its forecasting capability for the period 1993-1994 is superior compared to the monetary models in two of the four cases.^ I conclude that in spite of the questionable validity of these models, the monetary models give better results in the case of the "smaller" economies like the Dominican Republic and Jamaica where monetary influences swamp the other determinants of exchange rate. ^

Liquidity and asset pricing: A comparison between three-factor and three-moment capital asset pricing models

Liquidity is an important attribute of an asset that investors would like to take into consideration when making investment decisions. However, the previous empirical evidence whether liquidity is a determinant of stock return is not unanimous. This dissertation provides a very comprehensive study about the role of liquidity in asset pricing using the Fama-French (1993) three-factor and Kraus and Litzenberger (1976) three-moment CAPM as models for risk adjustment. The relationship between liquidity and well-known determinants of stock returns such as size and book-to-market are also investigated. This study examines the liquidity and asset pricing issues for both intertemporal as well as cross-sectional data. ^ The results indicate an existence of a liquidity premium, i.e., less liquid stocks would demand higher rate of return than more liquid stocks. More specifically, a drop of 1 percent in liquidity is associated with a higher rate of return of about 2 to 3 basis points per month. Further investigation reveals that neither the Fama-French three-factor model nor the three-moment CAPM captures the liquidity premium. Finally, the results show that well-known determinants of stock return such as size and book-to-market do not serve as proxy for liquidity. ^ Overall, this dissertation shows that a liquidity premium exists in the stock market and that liquidity is a distinct effect, and is not influenced by the presence of non-market factors, market factors and other stock characteristics.^

Business process quantitative analysis and optimization for service industries

The total time a customer spends in the business process system, called the customer cycle-time, is a major contributor to overall customer satisfaction. Business process analysts and designers are frequently asked to design process solutions with optimal performance. Simulation models have been very popular to quantitatively evaluate the business processes; however, simulation is time-consuming and it also requires extensive modeling experiences to develop simulation models. Moreover, simulation models neither provide recommendations nor yield optimal solutions for business process design. A queueing network model is a good analytical approach toward business process analysis and design, and can provide a useful abstraction of a business process. However, the existing queueing network models were developed based on telephone systems or applied to manufacturing processes in which machine servers dominate the system. In a business process, the servers are usually people. The characteristics of human servers should be taken into account by the queueing model, i.e. specialization and coordination. ^ The research described in this dissertation develops an open queueing network model to do a quick analysis of business processes. Additionally, optimization models are developed to provide optimal business process designs. The queueing network model extends and improves upon existing multi-class open-queueing network models (MOQN) so that the customer flow in the human-server oriented processes can be modeled. The optimization models help business process designers to find the optimal design of a business process with consideration of specialization and coordination. ^ The main findings of the research are, first, parallelization can reduce the cycle-time for those customer classes that require more than one parallel activity; however, the coordination time due to the parallelization overwhelms the savings from parallelization under the high utilization servers since the waiting time significantly increases, thus the cycle-time increases. Third, the level of industrial technology employed by a company and coordination time to mange the tasks have strongest impact on the business process design; as the level of industrial technology employed by the company is high; more division is required to improve the cycle-time; as the coordination time required is high; consolidation is required to improve the cycle-time. ^

A study of stock market fluctuations and their relation to business conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubblelike deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the nonfundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

Assessing the impact of business group diversification on the internationalization of their affiliates: The case of Latin American firms

This dissertation explored the capacity of business group diversification to generate value to their affiliates in an institutional environment characterized by the adoption of structural pro-market reforms. In particular, the three empirical essays explored the impact of business group diversification on the internationalization process of their affiliates. ^ The first essay examined the direct effect of business group diversification on firm performance and its moderating effect on the multinationality-performance relationship. It further explored whether such moderating effect varies depending upon whether the focal affiliate is a manufacturing or service firm. The findings suggested that the benefits of business group diversification on firm performance have a threshold, that those benefits are significant at earlier stages of internationalization and that these benefits are stronger for service firms. ^ The second essay studied the capacity of business group diversification to ameliorate the negative effects of the added complexity faced by its affiliates when they internationalized. The essay explored this capacity in different dimensions of international complexity. The results indicated that business group diversification effectively ameliorated the effects of the added international complexity. This positive effect is stronger in the institutional voids rather than the societal complexity dimension. In the former dimension, diversified business groups can use both their non-market resources and previous experience to ameliorate the effects of complexity on firm performance. ^ The last essay explored whether the benefits of business group diversification on the scope-performance relationship varies depending on the level of development of the network of subsidiaries and the region of operation of the focal firm. The results suggested that the benefits of business group diversification are location bound within the region but that they are not related to the level of development of the targeted countries. ^ The three essays use longitudinal analyses on a sample of Latin American firms to test the hypotheses. While the first essay used multilevel models and fix effects models, the last two essays used exclusively fix effects models to assess the impact of business group diversification. In conclusion, this dissertation aimed to explain the capacity of business group diversification to generate value under conditions of institutional change.^