The impact of the withdrawal from Afghanistan on Russia’s security. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 54, March 2014

ISAF’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 will directly impact the wider region. Not only is there a risk of instability spilling over to Central Asia, but the drawdown will also accelerate the ongoing shift in the balance of power in Central Asia towards China. Should a spillover occur, the burden will mainly fall on Russia and China. Russia will, however, only continue playing the dominant role in the security of the former Soviet Central Asia (FSCA) until China takes on responsibility for the security of its direct sphere of influence or “dingwei”. Russia’s Near Abroad, however, overlaps both with the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood in Europe and China’s dingwei in Central Asia and the Far East. It is, therefore, necessary to approach Russian reactions to these encroachments on its historical spheres of influence in a single context, taking into account the interrelationship between these three.

The German Constitutional Court’s decision about the European Central Bank’s OMT [Outright Monetary Transactions] mechanism: A masterpiece of judicial arrogance. European Policy Briefs No. 30, April 2014

The German Constitutional Court (BVG) recently referred different questions to the European Court of Justice for a preliminary ruling. They concern the legality of the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transaction mechanism created in 2012. Simultaneously, the German Court has threatened to disrupt the implementation of OTM in Germany if its very restrictive analysis is not validated by the European Court of Justice. This raises fundamental questions about the future efficiency of the ECB’s monetary policy, the damage to the independence of the ECB, the balance of power between judges and political organs in charge of economic policy, in Germany and in Europe, and finally the relationship between the BVG and other national or European courts.

The End of German Hegemony. CEPS Commentary, 16 October 2015

Without anyone quite noticing, Europe’s internal balance of power has been shifting. As Daniel Gros observes in this commentary, Germany’s dominant position, which has seemed absolute since the 2008 financial crisis, is gradually weakening – with far-reaching implications for the European Union.

A partial success of trade cooperation within the ‘16+1’ formula: the case of food exports to China. OSW COMMENTARY #189, 2015-10-29

When in 2012 China approached the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) with a proposal of cooperation in the ‘16+1’ formula, it declared it was willing to meet the needs of CEE countries. Beijing had been aware of the political importance of the problem of trade deficit (which has been ongoing for years) and launched cooperation with the governments of 16 CEE countries to boost imports from these states. The years 2011–2014 brought an improvement in the balance of trade between China and: Hungary, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia. The remaining ten CEE countries recorded an increase in their trade deficits. Changes in CEE countries’ balance of trade with China resulted only slightly from political actions. Instead, they were due to the macroeconomic situation and to a deterioration of the debt crisis in the EU which, for example, caused a decline in the import of Chinese goods in some of these countries. Multilateral trade cooperation was successfully developed in the entire region only in the agricultural and food production sector – the area of greatest interest to China. The pace of bilateral cooperation with specific countries varied, with the fastest being Poland, Latvia, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria. Actions by governments of CEE countries resulted in Chinese market opening up to hundreds of local companies which, in turn, translated into an increase in the volume of foodstuffs sold by ‘the 16’ to China from US$ 137 million in 2011 to US$ 400 million in 2014. The success achieved in the agricultural and food production sector has demonstrated the effectiveness of trade cooperation in the ‘16+1’ formula. It is, however, insufficient to generate a significant improvement of the trade balance. At present, the sector’s share in the total volume of goods sold to China by CEE states is a mere 3.7%, and any reduction of the trade deficit would require long-term and more comprehensive solutions still to be implemented by the governments of individual CEE states.

The role of Central Europe in the German economy. The political consequences. OSW Report June 2016

Recent publications allow us to conclude that the economic relations between Germany and Central Europe have come to the ‘end of history’, and nothing new will happen. However, a deeper analysis of these relationships reveals interesting new trends. Since joining the European Union the states of Central Europe have not settled for maintaining the average level of economic development, but have continued to narrow the distance between them and Western Europe, something which the global financial crisis did not prevent. Their improved economic situation also affected their relations with Germany. The latest results from the Visegrád Group states show them to be Germany’s most important trading partner, and their balance of trade in goods is in a state of equilibrium, while many euro area countries have recorded high trade deficits with Germany. The aim of this report is to display the trends in trade and investment between Germany and Central Europe, based on the example of the Visegrád Group. The author will also attempt to answer the question of whether the advancing economic cooperation between Germany and the V4 countries will lead to the further modernisation of those countries’ economies, or whether it will run the risk of leaving them in the ‘middle income trap’.

Manipulation of the Quorum Sensing Signal AI-2 Affects the Antibiotic-Treated Gut Microbiota

The mammalian gut microbiota harbors a diverse ecosystem where hundreds of bacterial species interact with each other and their host. Given that bacteria use signals to communicate and regulate group behaviors (quorum sensing), we asked whether such communication between different commensal species can influence the interactions occurring in this environment. We engineered the enteric bacterium, Escherichia coli, to manipulate the levels of the interspecies quorum sensing signal, autoinducer-2 (AI-2), in the mouse intestine and investigated the effect upon antibiotic-induced gut microbiota dysbiosis. E. coli that increased intestinal AI-2 levels altered the composition of the antibiotic-treated gut microbiota, favoring the expansion of the Firmicutes phylum. This significantly increased the Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio, to oppose the strong effect of the antibiotic, which had almost cleared the Firmicutes. This demonstrates that AI-2 levels influence the abundance of the major phyla of the gut microbiota, the balance of which is known to influence human health.

Chemical observations in the Red Sea and the inner Gulf of Aden during the International Indian Ocean Expedition 1964/65

The Red Sea has a special place among the adjacent seas of the world. High evaporation, exclusion of its deep water from contact with the Indian Ocean proper and complete absence of continental drainage may result special conditions of the chemistry of the Red Sea. This paper aims to describe and explain the peculiarity of the hydrochemical situation. The influence of the topography, of the inflow and outflow through the straights of Bab el Mandeb, of the evaporation, of the stability of the water layers, and of the circulation will be studied. An attempt is made to estimate the apparent oxygen ultilisation in order to obtain an indication of the biological activity. A further attempt is made toward the quantitative estimation of the circulation of the nutrients and also to obtain some information about transport, dissolution, and precipitation of calcium carbonate. The basis of these investigations are mainly observations of R. V. "Meteor" during the International Indian Ocean Expedition 1964/65. The determination of dissolved oxygen, dissolved inorganic phosphate, nitrate, nitrite, ammonia, pH, alkalinity, silicate as well as salinity and temperature forms the necessary basis for such an investigation of the chemical conditions. In the first chapter the methods and some modifications for the determination of the chemical properties as applied during the I.I.O.E. cruise of R. V. "Meteor" are described. The new methods, as worked out and tested under sea going conditions during several years by the author, are described in more detail. These are the methods for nitrate, silicate, the automatic determination of dissolved inorganic phosphate and silicate, the automated determination of total phosphorus, the in situ recording of the oxygen tension, and the modification for the determination of ammonia, calcium, and dissolved oxygen. With these revised methods more than 18,000 determinations have been carried out during the Indian Ocean cruise. The complete working up of the chemical data of the Indian Ocean Expedition of R. V. "Meteor" is devided into four sections: Contributions 1) to the Chemistry of the Red Sea and the Inner Gulf of Aden, 2) to the Gulf of Aden and the Somali Coast Region, 3) to the Western Indian Coast Region, and 4) to the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Oman. This paper presents the first contribution. The special hydrographical conditions are discussed. It can be shown, that the increase of salinity in the surface waters from the south to the north of the Red Sea is only to about 30 % due to evaporation. The remaining increase is presumed to be due to the admixture of deep water to the surface layers. A special rate for the consumption of oxygen (0.114 ml/ l/a) is derived for the deep water of the Red Sea at 1500 m. Based upon the distribution of the dissolved oxygen along the axii of the Red Sea, a chematic model for the longitudinal circulation of the Red Sea is constructed. This model should be considered as a first approximation and may explain the special distribution of phosphate, nitrate, and silicate. Based upon the evaluation of the residence time of the deep water a dissolution rate for silicate is estimated as 1 mygat/a. It seems possible to calculate residence times of water masses outside the Red Sea from the silicate content. The increase of silicate and the consumption of oxygen lead to residence times of the water below the thermocine of 30 to 48 years. The distribution of oxygen in the Straits of Bab el Mandeb is described and discussed. The rate of consumption of the oxygen in the outflowing Red Sea water is estimated to 8.5 ml/ l/a. This rather high rate is explained with reference to the special conditions in the outflowing water. The Red Sea water is characterized initially by a relative high content of oxygen and a low content of nutrients. The increase in nutrients and the decrease in the oxygen content is a secondary process of the Red Sea water on its way to the Arabian Sea. Based upon the vertical distribution of the dissolved inorganic phosphate vertical exchange coefficients of 1 - 4 g/cm/sec and vertical current speeds of 10**-5 to 10**-4 cm/sec are calculated for some stations in the Red Sea. The distribution of phosphate, silicate, nitrate, nitrite and ammonia for the Red Sea and the Straits of Bab el Mandeb are discussed. The special circulation is evaluated and the balance of the nutrients is estimated by means of the brutto transport. The nutrient deficit is assumed to be balanced by sporadic inflow of intermediate water from the Gulf of Aden. An example for such an inflow has been observed and is demonstrated. The silicate-salinity relationships are a suitable way for characterizing water masses in the Red Sea. Equations for the calculation of the different components from the carbonate system, the ion activities, and the calcium carbonate saturation are evaluated. The influence of temperature and pressure is taken into account. The carbonate saturation is calculated from the determined concentrations of calcium, alkalinity, and the hydrogen ion activity. Saturation values of 320 % are found for the surface layer and of 100% ± 1 for the deep water. The extraordinary equilibrium conditions may explain the constant Ca/Cl ratio and also the sedimentation of undissolved carbonate skelecons even in greater depths. A main sedimentation rate of 2 * 10**-3cm/year is evaluated from a total sedimentation of 10 * 106 to/a of calcium carbonate in the Red Sea. The appendix contains those data, which are not published in the data volume of the I.I.O.E. expedition of R. V. "Meteor".

Grain size analysis of ODP Site 162-984

Past changes in the freshwater balance of the surface North Atlantic Ocean are thought to have influenced the rate of deep-water formation, and consequently climate (Broecker and Denton, 1989, doi:10.1016/0016-7037(89)90123-3; Manabe and Stouffer, 1996; doi:10.1038/378165a0). Although water-mass proxies are generally consistent with an impact of freshwater input on meridional overturning circulation (Boyle and Keigwin, 1987, doi:10.1038/330035a0), there has been little dynamic evidence to support this linkage. Here we present a 25,000 year record of variations in sediment grain size from south of Iceland, which indicates vigorous bottom-water currents during both the last glacial maximum and the Holocene period. Together with reconstructions of North Atlantic water-mass distribution, vigorous bottom currents suggest a shorter residence time of northern-source waters during the last glacial maximum, relative to the Holocene period. The most significant reductions in flow strength occur during periods that have been associated with freshening of the surface North Atlantic. The short-term deglacial oscillations in bottom current strength are closely coupled to changes in Greenland air temperature, with a minimum during the Younger Dryas cold reversal and a maximum at the time of rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. Our results support a strong connection between ocean circulation and rapid climate change.

Volume changes of Jacobshavn Isbrae between 1985, 1997 and 2007

Following three decades of relative stability, Jakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland, underwent dramatic thinning, retreat and speed-up starting in 1998. To assess the amount of ice loss, we analyzed 1985 aerial photos and derived a 40 m grid digital elevation model (DEM). We also obtained a 2007 40 m grid SPOT DEM covering the same region. Comparison of the two DEMs over an area of ~4000 km**2 revealed a total ice loss of 160 ± 4 km**3, with 107 ± 0.2 km**3 in grounded regions (0.27 mm eustatic sea-level rise) and 53 ± 4 km**3 from the disintegration of the floating tongue. Comparison of the DEMs with 1997 NASA Airborne Topographic Mapper data indicates that this ice loss essentially occurred after 1997, with +0.7 ± 5.6 km**3 between 1985 and 1997 and -160 ± 7 km**3 between 1997 and 2007. The latter is equivalent to an average specific mass balance of -3.7 ± 0.2 m/a over the study area. Previously reported thickening of the main glacier during the early 1990s was accompanied by similar-magnitude thinning outside the areas of fast flow, indicating that the land-based ice continued reacting to longer-term climate forcing.

(Table 1) Rare earth element contents in basalts and glasses of DSDP Legs 45 and 51

Rare-earth element (REE) distributions in altered basalts and glasses collected during some Legs of the Deep Sea Drilling Project show that a fractionation of these elements occurs during submarine weathering. When the alteration is well-marked, the REE distribution in altered glasses shows an enrichment in light rare-earths relative to the fresh glass. In particular, Ce is selectively enriched in palagonitized glasses that comprise, besides polymetallic nodules, another phase liable to explain the Ce depletion in seawater. Taking in account these processes of submarine weathering of the oceanic crust, a geochemical balance of Ce between authigenic phases of the marine environment is attempted.

Thallium concentrations and isotope composition of MORB glasses and altered oceani crust from DSDP/ODP Hole 504B and DSDP Hole 52-417D

Hydrothermal fluids expelled from the seafloor at high and low temperatures play pivotal roles in controlling seawater chemistry. However, the magnitude of the high temperature water flux of mid-ocean ridge axes remains widely disputed and the volume of low temperature vent fluids at ridge flanks is virtually unconstrained. Here, we determine both high and low temperature hydrothermal fluid fluxes using the chemical and isotopic mass balance of the element thallium (Tl) in the ocean crust. Thallium is a unique tracer of ocean floor hydrothermal exchange because of its contrasting behavior during seafloor alteration at low and high temperatures and the distinctive isotopic signatures of fresh and altered MORB and seawater. The calculated high temperature hydrothermal water flux is (0.17-2.93)*10**13 kg/yr with a best estimate of 0.72*10**13 kg/yr. This result suggests that only about 5 to 80% of the heat available at mid-ocean ridge axes from the crystallization and cooling of the freshly formed ocean crust, is released by high temperature black smoker fluids.The residual thermal energy ismost likely lost via conduction and/or through the circulation of intermediate temperature hydrothermal fluids that do not alter the chemical budgets of Tl in the ocean crust. The Tl-based calculations indicate that the low temperature hydrothermal water flux at ridge flanks is (0.2-5.4)*10**17 kg/yr. This implies that the fluids have an average temperature anomaly of only about 0.1 to 3.6 °C relative to ambient seawater. If these low temperatures are correct then both Sr and Mg are expected to be relatively unreactive in ridge-flank hydrothermal systems and this may explain why the extent of basalt alteration that is observed for altered ocean crust appears insufficient to balance the oceanic budgets of 87Sr/86Sr and Mg.

Chemical composition of smectite-bearing basal metalliferous sediments from DSDP Leg 9

The mineralogy and P, Fe and Mn contents of basal metalliferous and nonmetalliferous sediments of two Deep Sea Drilling Project cores (Sites 77 and 80) were investigated. When compared with superjacent nonmetalliferous material, basal metalliferous sediments are significantly enriched in P, Fe and Mn. Among the phases present in the metalliferous sediment samples are a poorly-crystalline Fe-rich smectite and X-ray amorphous Fe oxyhydroxides. P is associated primarily with the oxyhydroxides. Adsorption of phosphate on smectite does not seem to play any role in the uptake of P by metalliferous sediments. An estimate of the removal of P by on- and off-ridge metallogenic deposition suggests that this process strongly affects the overall geochemical balance of phosphorus in the World Ocean.

The Bible and the rights of labor /

Reprint edition from "Labor balance," of North Abington, Mass.