Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Arts-health intersections : a model of practice for consistency in the arts-health sector

The field of Arts-Health practice and research has grown exponentially in the past 30 years. While researchers are using applied arts as the subject of investigation in research, the evaluation of practice and participant benefits has a limited general focus. In recent years, the field has witnessed a growing concentration on the evaluation of health outcomes, outputs and tangential benefits for participants engaging in Arts-Health practice. The wide range of methodological approaches applied arts practitioners implement make the field difficult to define. This article introduces the term Arts-Health intersections as a model of practice and framework to promote consistency in design, implementation and evaluative processes in applied arts programmes promoting health outcomes. The article challenges the current trend to solely evaluate health outcomes in the field, and promotes a concurrent and multidisciplinary methodological approach that can be adopted to promote evaluation, consistency and best practice in the field of Arts-Health intersections. The article provides a theoretical overview of Arts-Health intersections, and then takes this theoretical platform and details a best model of practice for developing Arts-Health intersections and presents this model as a guide.

Polycaprolactone-based scaffold plus recombinant human bone morphogenic protein rhBMP-2) in a sheep thoracic spine fusion model

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is a complex three dimensional deformity affecting 2-3% of the general population. The resulting spinal deformity consists of coronal curvature, hypokyphosis of the thoracic spine and vertebral rotation in the axial plane with posterior elements turned into the curve concavity. The potential for curve progression is heightened during the adolescent growth spurt. Success of scoliosis deformity correction depends on solid bony fusion between adjacent vertebrae after the intervertebral (IV) discs have been surgically cleared and the disc spaces filled with graft material. Recently a bioactive and resorbable scaffold fabricated from medical grade polycaprolactone has been developed for bone regeneration at load bearing sites. Combined with rhBMP-2, this has been shown to be successful in acting as a bone graft substitute in a porcine lumbar interbody fusion model when compared to autologous bone graft alone. The study aimed to establish a large animal thoracic spine interbody fusion model, develop spine biodegradable scaffolds (PCL) in combination with biologics (rhBMP-2) and to establish a platform for research into spine tissue engineering constructs. Preliminary results demonstrate higher grades of radiologically evident bony fusion across all levels when comparing fusion scores between the 3 and 6 month postop groups at the PCL CaP coated scaffold level, which is observed to be a similar grade to autograft, while no fusion is seen at the scaffold only level. Results to date suggest that the combination of rhBMP-2 and scaffold engineering actively promotes bone formation, laying the basis of a viable tissue engineered constructs.

Biomechanical performance of polycaprolactone (PCL)-based scaffold with rhBMP-2 in a sheep thoracic spine fusion model

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is a complex three dimensional deformity affecting 2-3% of the general population. Resulting spine deformities include progressive coronal curvature, hypokyphosis, or frank lordosis in the thoracic spine and vertebral rotation in the axial plane with posterior elements turned into the curve concavity. The potential for curve progression is heightened during the adolescent growth spurt. Success of scoliosis deformity correction depends on solid bony fusion between adjacent vertebrae after the intervertebral discs have been surgically cleared and the disc spaces filled with graft material. Problems with bone graft harvest site morbidity as well as limited bone availability have led to the search for bone graft substitutes. Recently, a bioactive and resorbable scaffold fabricated from medical grade polycaprolactone (PCL) has been developed for bone regeneration at load bearing sites. Combined with recombinant human bone morphogenic protein–2 (rhBMP-2), this has been shown to be successful in acting as a bone graft substitute in acting as a bone graft substitute in a porcine lumbar interbody fusion model when compared to autologous bone graft. This in vivo sheep study intends to evaluate the suitability of a custom designed medical grade PCL scaffold in combination with rhBMP-2 as a bone graft substitute in the setting of mini–thoracotomy surgery as a platform for ongoing research to benefit patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

Detecting conversing groups of chatters : a model, algorithms, and tests

Chatrooms, for example Internet Relay Chat, are generally multi-user, multi-channel and multiserver chat-systems which run over the Internet and provide a protocol for real-time text-based conferencing between users all over the world. While a well-trained human observer is able to understand who is chatting with whom, there are no efficient and accurate automated tools to determine the groups of users conversing with each other. A precursor to analysing evolving cyber-social phenomena is to first determine what the conversations are and which groups of chatters are involved in each conversation. We consider this problem in this paper. We propose an algorithm to discover all groups of users that are engaged in conversation. Our algorithms are based on a statistical model of a chatroom that is founded on our experience with real chatrooms. Our approach does not require any semantic analysis of the conversations, rather it is based purely on the statistical information contained in the sequence of posts. We improve the accuracy by applying some graph algorithms to clean the statistical information. We present some experimental results which indicate that one can automatically determine the conversing groups in a chatroom, purely on the basis of statistical analysis.

Data transformations in custom digital workflows : property graphs as a data model for user-defined mappings

This paper describes the use of property graphs for mapping data between AEC software tools, which are not linked by common data formats and/or other interoperability measures. The intention of introducing this in practice, education and research is to facilitate the use of diverse, non-integrated design and analysis applications by a variety of users who need to create customised digital workflows, including those who are not expert programmers. Data model types are examined by way of supporting the choice of directed, attributed, multi-relational graphs for such data transformation tasks. A brief exemplar design scenario is also presented to illustrate the concepts and methods proposed, and conclusions are drawn regarding the feasibility of this approach and directions for further research.

A conceptual model for reflecting on expected learning vs. demonstrated student performance

Educators are faced with many challenging questions in designing an effective curriculum. What prerequisite knowledge do students have before commencing a new subject? At what level of mastery? What is the spread of capabilities between bare-passing students vs. the top performing group? How does the intended learning specification compare to student performance at the end of a subject? In this paper we present a conceptual model that helps in answering some of these questions. It has the following main capabilities: capturing the learning specification in terms of syllabus topics and outcomes; capturing mastery levels to model progression; capturing the minimal vs. aspirational learning design; capturing confidence and reliability metrics for each of these mappings; and finally, comparing and reflecting on the learning specification against actual student performance. We present a web-based implementation of the model, and validate it by mapping the final exams from four programming subjects against the ACM/IEEE CS2013 topics and outcomes, using Bloom's Taxonomy as the mastery scale. We then import the itemised exam grades from 632 students across the four subjects and compare the demonstrated student performance against the expected learning for each of these. Key contributions of this work are the validated conceptual model for capturing and comparing expected learning vs. demonstrated performance, and a web-based implementation of this model, which is made freely available online as a community resource.

Investigation of sensitivity based load ranking with composite load model in power system

Load modeling plays an important role in power system dynamic stability assessment. One of the widely used methods in assessing load model impact on system dynamic response is through parametric sensitivity analysis. Load ranking provides an effective measure of such impact. Traditionally, load ranking is based on either static or dynamic load model alone. In this paper, composite load model based load ranking framework is proposed. It enables comprehensive investigation into load modeling impacts on system stability considering the dynamic interactions between load and system dynamics. The impact of load composition on the overall sensitivity and therefore on ranking of the load is also investigated. Dynamic simulations are performed to further elucidate the results obtained through sensitivity based load ranking approach.

Analytical model for fault section estimation and state identification of unobserved protective relays in power systems [电力系统故障诊断与不可观测保护状态识别的解析模型]

In recent years, some models have been proposed for the fault section estimation and state identification of unobserved protective relays (FSE-SIUPR) under the condition of incomplete state information of protective relays. In these models, the temporal alarm information from a faulted power system is not well explored although it is very helpful in compensating the incomplete state information of protective relays, quickly achieving definite fault diagnosis results and evaluating the operating status of protective relays and circuit breakers in complicated fault scenarios. In order to solve this problem, an integrated optimization mathematical model for the FSE-SIUPR, which takes full advantage of the temporal characteristics of alarm messages, is developed in the framework of the well-established temporal constraint network. With this model, the fault evolution procedure can be explained and some states of unobserved protective relays identified. The model is then solved by means of the Tabu search (TS) and finally verified by test results of fault scenarios in a practical power system.

Locally weighted learning model predictivek control for elastic joint robots

This paper proposes an efficient and online learning control system that uses the successful Model Predictive Control (MPC) method in a model based locally weighted learning framework. The new approach named Locally Weighted Learning Model Predictive Control (LWL-MPC) has been proposed as a solution to learn to control complex and nonlinear Elastic Joint Robots (EJR). Elastic Joint Robots are generally difficult to learn to control due to their elastic properties preventing standard model learning techniques from being used, such as learning computed torque control. This paper demonstrates the capability of LWL-MPC to perform online and incremental learning while controlling the joint positions of a real three Degree of Freedom (DoF) EJR. An experiment on a real EJR is presented and LWL-MPC is shown to successfully learn to control the system to follow two different figure of eight trajectories.

Using a pharmacokinetic model to interpret biomonitoring data of PBDEs in the Australian population

From human biomonitoring data that are increasingly collected in the United States, Australia, and in other countries from large-scale field studies, we obtain snap-shots of concentration levels of various persistent organic pollutants (POPs) within a cross section of the population at different times. Not only can we observe the trends within this population with time, but we can also gain information going beyond the obvious time trends. By combining the biomonitoring data with pharmacokinetic modeling, we can re-construct the time-variant exposure to individual POPs, determine their intrinsic elimination half-lives in the human body, and predict future levels of POPs in the population. Different approaches have been employed to extract information from human biomonitoring data. Pharmacokinetic (PK) models were combined with longitudinal data1, with single2 or multiple3 average concentrations of a cross-sectional data (CSD), or finally with multiple CSD with or without empirical exposure data4. In the latter study, for the first time, the authors based their modeling outputs on two sets of CSD and empirical exposure data, which made it possible that their model outputs were further constrained due to the extensive body of empirical measurements. Here we use a PK model to analyze recent levels of PBDE concentrations measured in the Australian population. In this study, we are able to base our model results on four sets5-7 of CSD; we focus on two PBDE congeners that have been shown3,5,8-9 to differ in intake rates and half-lives with BDE-47 being associated with high intake rates and a short half-life and BDE-153 with lower intake rates and a longer half-life. By fitting the model to PBDE levels measured in different age groups in different years, we determine the level of intake of BDE-47 and BDE-153, as well as the half-lives of these two chemicals in the Australian population.

A taxonomy of model-based testing approaches

Model-based testing (MBT) relies on models of a system under test and/or its environment to derive test cases for the system. This paper discusses the process of MBT and defines a taxonomy that covers the key aspects of MBT approaches. It is intended to help with understanding the characteristics, similarities and differences of those approaches, and with classifying the approach used in a particular MBT tool. To illustrate the taxonomy, a description of how three different examples of MBT tools fit into the taxonomy is provided.

Understanding QC and EQA : an authentic learning model for undergraduate students (Conference Abstract)

Introduction QC and EQA are integral to good pathology laboratory practice. Medical Laboratory Science students undertake a project exploring internal QC and EQA procedures used in chemical pathology laboratories. Each student represents an individual lab and the class group represents the peer group of labs performing the same assay using the same method. Methods Using a manual BCG assay for serum albumin, normal and abnormal controls are run with a patient sample over 7 weeks. The QC results are assessed each week using calculated z-scores and both 2S & 3S control rules to determine whether a run is ‘in control’. At the end of the 7 weeks a completed LJ chart is assessed using the Westgard Multirules. Students investigate causes of error and the implications for both lab practice and patient care if runs are not ‘in control’. Twice in the 7 weeks two EQA samples (with target values unknown) are assayed alongside the weekly QC and patient samples. Results from each student are collated and form the basis of an EQA program. ALP are provided and students complete a Youden Plot, which is used to analyse the performance of each ‘lab’ and the method to identify bias. Students explore the concept of possible clinical implications of a biased method and address the actions that should be taken if a lab is not in consensus with the peer group. Conclusion This project is a model of ‘real world’ practice in which student demonstrate an understanding of the importance of QC procedures in a pathology laboratory, apply and interpret statistics and QC rules and charts, apply critical thinking and analytical skills to quality performance data to make recommendations for further practice and improve their technical competence and confidence.

Extending and validating the is-impact model in Saudi Arabia : accounting for computer network quality

Organizations from every industry sector seek to enhance their business performance and competitiveness through the deployment of contemporary information systems (IS), such as Enterprise Systems (ERP). Investments in ERP are complex and costly, attracting scrutiny and pressure to justify their cost. Thus, IS researchers highlight the need for systematic evaluation of information system success, or impact, which has resulted in the introduction of varied models for evaluating information systems. One of these systematic measurement approaches is the IS-Impact Model introduced by a team of researchers at Queensland University of technology (QUT) (Gable, Sedera, & Chan, 2008). The IS-Impact Model is conceptualized as a formative, multidimensional index that consists of four dimensions. Gable et al. (2008) define IS-Impact as "a measure at a point in time, of the stream of net benefits from the IS, to date and anticipated, as perceived by all key-user-groups" (p.381). The IT Evaluation Research Program (ITE-Program) at QUT has grown the IS-Impact Research Track with the central goal of conducting further studies to enhance and extend the IS-Impact Model. The overall goal of the IS-Impact research track at QUT is "to develop the most widely employed model for benchmarking information systems in organizations for the joint benefit of both research and practice" (Gable, 2009). In order to achieve that, the IS-Impact research track advocates programmatic research having the principles of tenacity, holism, and generalizability through extension research strategies. This study was conducted within the IS-Impact Research Track, to further generalize the IS-Impact Model by extending it to the Saudi Arabian context. According to Hofsted (2012), the national culture of Saudi Arabia is significantly different from the Australian national culture making the Saudi Arabian culture an interesting context for testing the external validity of the IS-Impact Model. The study re-visits the IS-Impact Model from the ground up. Rather than assume the existing instrument is valid in the new context, or simply assess its validity through quantitative data collection, the study takes a qualitative, inductive approach to re-assessing the necessity and completeness of existing dimensions and measures. This is done in two phases: Exploratory Phase and Confirmatory Phase. The exploratory phase addresses the first research question of the study "Is the IS-Impact Model complete and able to capture the impact of information systems in Saudi Arabian Organization?". The content analysis, used to analyze the Identification Survey data, indicated that 2 of the 37 measures of the IS-Impact Model are not applicable for the Saudi Arabian Context. Moreover, no new measures or dimensions were identified, evidencing the completeness and content validity of the IS-Impact Model. In addition, the Identification Survey data suggested several concepts related to IS-Impact, the most prominent of which was "Computer Network Quality" (CNQ). The literature supported the existence of a theoretical link between IS-Impact and CNQ (CNQ is viewed as an antecedent of IS-Impact). With the primary goal of validating the IS-Impact model within its extended nomological network, CNQ was introduced to the research model. The Confirmatory Phase addresses the second research question of the study "Is the Extended IS-Impact Model Valid as a Hierarchical Multidimensional Formative Measurement Model?". The objective of the Confirmatory Phase was to test the validity of IS-Impact Model and CNQ Model. To achieve that, IS-Impact, CNQ, and IS-Satisfaction were operationalized in a survey instrument, and then the research model was assessed by employing the Partial Least Squares (PLS) approach. The CNQ model was validated as a formative model. Similarly, the IS-Impact Model was validated as a hierarchical multidimensional formative construct. However, the analysis indicated that one of the IS-Impact Model indicators was insignificant and can be removed from the model. Thus, the resulting Extended IS-Impact Model consists of 4 dimensions and 34 measures. Finally, the structural model was also assessed against two aspects: explanatory and predictive power. The analysis revealed that the path coefficient between CNQ and IS-Impact is significant with t-value= (4.826) and relatively strong with â = (0.426) with CNQ explaining 18% of the variance in IS-Impact. These results supported the hypothesis that CNQ is antecedent of IS-Impact. The study demonstrates that the quality of Computer Network affects the quality of the Enterprise System (ERP) and consequently the impacts of the system. Therefore, practitioners should pay attention to the Computer Network quality. Similarly, the path coefficient between IS-Impact and IS-Satisfaction was significant t-value = (17.79) and strong â = (0.744), with IS-Impact alone explaining 55% of the variance in Satisfaction, consistent with results of the original IS-Impact study (Gable et al., 2008). The research contributions include: (a) supporting the completeness and validity of IS-Impact Model as a Hierarchical Multi-dimensional Formative Measurement Model in the Saudi Arabian context, (b) operationalizing Computer Network Quality as conceptualized in the ITU-T Recommendation E.800 (ITU-T, 1993), (c) validating CNQ as a formative measurement model and as an antecedent of IS Impact, and (d) conceptualizing and validating IS-Satisfaction as a reflective measurement model and as an immediate consequence of IS Impact. The CNQ model provides a framework to perceptually measure Computer Network Quality from multiple perspectives. The CNQ model features an easy-to-understand, easy-to-use, and economical survey instrument.

Characterization of in vitro Chlamydia muridarum persistence and utilization in an in vivo mouse model of Chlamydia vaccine

Problem: Chlamydia trachomatis genital tract infections are easily treated with antibiotics, however the majority of infections are asymptomatic and therefore untreated, highlighting the need for a vaccine. Because most infections are asymptomatic, vaccination could potentially be administered to individuals who may have an acute infection at that time. In such individuals the effect of vaccination on the existing infection is unknown; however one potential outcome could be the development of a persistent infection. In vitro chlamydial persistence has been well characterized in various strains, however there have been no reported studies in C. muridarum. Method of Study: We performed ultrastructural characterization, and transcriptome analysis of selected genes. We then used the transcriptional profiles of the selected genes to examine whether intranasal immunization of mice during an active genital infection would induce persistence in the upper reproductive tract of female mice. Results and Conclusions: We found that persistence developed in the oviducts of mice as a result of immunization. This is a significant finding, not only because it is the first time that C. muridarum persistence has been characterized in vitro, but also due to the fact that there is minimal characterization of in vivo persistence of any chlamydial species. This highlights the importance of the timing of vaccination in individuals.