Hot Summers and Heart Failure: Seasonal Variations in Morbidity and Mortality in Australian Heart Failure Patients (1994-2005)

Background There are minimal reports of seasonal variations in chronic heart failure (CHF)-related morbidity and mortality beyond the northern hemisphere. Aims and methods We examined potential seasonal variations with respect to morbidity and all-cause mortality over more than a decade in a cohort of 2961 patients with CHF from a tertiary referral hospital in South Australia subject to mild winters and hot summers. Results Seasonal variation across all event-types was observed. CHF-related morbidity peaked in winter (July) and was lowest in summer (February): 70 (95% CI: 65 to 76) vs. 33 (95% CI: 30 to 37) admissions/1000 at risk (p<0.005). All-cause admissions (113 (95% CI: 107 to 120) vs. 73 (95% CI 68 to 79) admissions/1000 at risk, p<0.001) and concurrent respiratory disease (21% vs. 12%,p<0.001) were consistently higher in winter. 2010 patients died, mortality was highest in August relative to February: 23 (95% CI: 20 to 27) vs. 12 (95% CI: 10 to 15) deaths per 1000 at risk, p<0.001. Those aged 75 years or older were most at risk of seasonal variations in morbidity and mortality. Conclusion Seasonal variations in CHF-related morbidity and mortality occur in the hot climate of South Australia, suggesting that relative (rather than absolute) changes in temperature drive this global phenomenon.

Learning from episodes of degradation and recovery in variable Australian rangelands

Land-change science emphasizes the intimate linkages between the human and environmental components of land management systems. Recent theoretical developments in drylands identify a small set of key principles that can guide the understanding of these linkages. Using these principles, a detailed study of seven major degradation episodes over the past century in Australian grazed rangelands was reanalyzed to show a common set of events: (i) good climatic and economic conditions for a period, leading to local and regional social responses of increasing stocking rates, setting the preconditions for rapid environmental collapse, followed by (ii) a major drought coupled with a fall in the market making destocking financially unattractive, further exacerbating the pressure on the environment; then (iii) permanent or temporary declines in grazing productivity, depending on follow-up seasons coupled again with market and social conditions. The analysis supports recent theoretical developments but shows that the establishment of environmental knowledge that is strictly local may be insufficient on its own for sustainable management. Learning systems based in a wider community are needed that combine local knowledge, formal research, and institutional support. It also illustrates how natural variability in the state of both ecological and social systems can interact to precipitate nonequilibrial change in each other, so that planning cannot be based only on average conditions. Indeed, it is this variability in both environment and social subsystems that hinders the local learning required to prevent collapse.

Dynamics of attacker–defender dyads in Association Football : parameters influencing decision-making

Previous work on pattern-forming dynamics of team sports has investigated sub-phases of basketball and rugby union by focussing on one-versus-one (1v1) attacker-defender dyads. This body of work has identified the role of candidate control parameters, interpersonal distance and relative velocity, in predicting the outcomes of team player interactions. These two control parameters have been described as functioning in a nested relationship where relative velocity between players comes to the fore within a critical range of interpersonal distance. The critical influence of constraints on the intentionality of player behaviour has also been identified through the study of 1v1 attacker-defender dyads. This thesis draws from previous work adopting an ecological dynamics approach, which encompasses both Dynamical Systems Theory and Ecological Psychology concepts, to describe attacker-defender interactions in 1v1 dyads in association football. Twelve male youth association football players (average age 15.3 ± 0.5 yrs) performed as both attackers and defenders in 1v1 dyads in three field positions in an experimental manipulation of the proximity to goal and the role of players. Player and ball motion was tracked using TACTO 8.0 software (Fernandes & Caixinha, 2003) to produce two-dimensional (2D) trajectories of players and the ball on the ground. Significant differences were found for player-to-ball interactions depending on proximity to goal manipulations, indicating how key reference points in the environment such as the location of the goal may act as a constraint that shapes decision-making behaviour. Results also revealed that interpersonal distance and relative velocity alone were insufficient for accurately predicting the outcome of a dyad in association football. Instead, combined values of interpersonal distance, ball-to-defender distance, attacker-to-ball distance, attacker-to-ball relative velocity and relative angles were found to indicate the state of dyad outcomes.

History in the Australian Curriculum F-10 : providing answers without asking questions

This paper examines the most recent version of the Australian Curriculum: History F-10. It does so in two ways. First, it explores some of the strengths and weaknesses of this curriculum with reference to the decision to frame aspects of Australian history within the context of a world history approach. Whilst the positioning of Indigenous Histories is applauded, the curriculum’s lack of attention to the significance of the recent history of Australia’s Asian neighbours, and Australia’s relationship with them, is critiqued. This part of the paper also emphasises the need for comparative approaches and calls for greater emphasis on providing students with opportunities to critique and contest the construction of narratives about the past. Second, the paper introduces four invited articles that examine different aspects of the Australian Curriculum: History. Collectively these papers reiterate the significance of the richness of integrated and child-centred approaches and the importance of developing historical thinking, empathy and the historical imagination in the classroom.