Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Etude des liens entre l'alexithymie, l'expérience dépressive et la dépendance interpersonnelle chez des sujets addictifs [Relationships between alexithymia, depression and interpersonal dependency in addictive subjects].

In the scientific literature, the term of addiction is currently used to describe a whole range of phenomena characterized by an irresistible urge to engage in a series of behaviors carried out in a repetitive and persistent manner despite accruing adverse somatic, psychological and social consequences for the individual. It has been suggested that subjects presenting such behaviors would share specific features of personality which support the appearance or are associated with these addictive behaviors. Dimensions such as alexithymia and depression have been particularly well investigated. The aim of this study was to explore the hypothesis of a specific psychopathological model relating alexithymia and depression in different addictive disorders such as alcoholism, drug addiction or eating disorders. Alexithymic and depressive dimensions were explored and analyzed through the statistical tool of path analysis in a large clinical sample of addicted patients and controls. The results of this statistical method, which tests unidirectional causal relationships between a certain number of observed variables, showed a good adjustment between the observed data and the ideal model, and support the hypothesis that a depressive dimension can facilitate the development of dependence in vulnerable alexithymic subjects. These results can have clinical implications in the treatment of addictive disorders.

Confusões e ambigüidades na classificação de eventos adversos em pesquisa clínica

É comum considerar ambíguo como sinônimo de confuso. Em uma informação confusa, várias informações têm um mesmo significado. Na informação ambígua, ao contrário, vários significados são atribuídos a uma mesma palavra. Informações excessivas também geram ambiguidade, daí a necessidade de concisão e clareza na linguagem. O termo evento adverso (EA) é definido como qualquer ocorrência médica inconveniente, sofrida por um sujeito da pesquisa em investigação clínica. A confusão e a ambiguidade no uso de palavras podem gerar conseqüências importantes na valorização de EAs. O objetivo deste estudo, de natureza teórica, é harmonizar o vocabulário utilizado na caracterização dos riscos e na comunicação de EAs na pesquisa clínica. Os EAs podem ser classificados quanto à previsibilidade, frequência, gravidade, causalidade e seriedade. Muitas vezes, em documentos regulatórios, os EAs são definidos em função da seriedade e causalidade. A harmonização do vocabulário na comunicação de EAs é fundamental para evitar a utilização equivocada de palavras com sentido confuso, ou ambíguo.

Common variants associated with plasma triglycerides and risk for coronary artery disease.

Triglycerides are transported in plasma by specific triglyceride-rich lipoproteins; in epidemiological studies, increased triglyceride levels correlate with higher risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). However, it is unclear whether this association reflects causal processes. We used 185 common variants recently mapped for plasma lipids (P < 5 × 10(-8) for each) to examine the role of triglycerides in risk for CAD. First, we highlight loci associated with both low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglyceride levels, and we show that the direction and magnitude of the associations with both traits are factors in determining CAD risk. Second, we consider loci with only a strong association with triglycerides and show that these loci are also associated with CAD. Finally, in a model accounting for effects on LDL-C and/or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, the strength of a polymorphism's effect on triglyceride levels is correlated with the magnitude of its effect on CAD risk. These results suggest that triglyceride-rich lipoproteins causally influence risk for CAD.

Protocol d’avaluació i orientació d’intervenció davant dels consums d’alcohol

El consum d’alcohol juntament amb els altres problemes relacionats amb el consum de tòxics ha estat en molt casos un element que ha tingut un paper significatiu en la comissió del delicte tant com a factor causal com facilitador. El consum d’alcohol i els problemes associats queden ocults quan el subjecte ingressa a presó arran de la no-disponibilitat de la substància i és en reiniciar els contactes amb el medi exterior que sovint aquest problema torna a aparèixer progressivament si no ha estat abordat prèviament. Aquest protocol elaborat per una comunitat de psicòlegs de centres penitenciaris de Catalunya pretén trobar una metodologia comuna d’avaluació i intervenció davant els consums actuals d’alcohol i la detecció dels subjectes amb història personal de risc de consum perjudicial.

Do Financial Incentives Affect Firms' Demand For Disabled Workers?

A number of OECD countries aim to encourage work integration of disabled persons using quota policies. For instance, Austrian firms must provide at least one job to a disabled worker per 25 nondisabled workers and are subject to a tax if they do not. This "threshold design" provides causal estimates of the noncompliance tax on disabled employment if firms do not manipulate nondisabled employment; a lower and upper bound on the causal effect can be constructed if they do. Results indicate that firms with 25 nondisabled workers employ about 0.04 (or 12%) more disabled workers than without the tax; firms do manipulate employment of nondisabled workers but the lower bound on the employment effect of the quota remains positive; employment effects are stronger in low-wage firms than in high-wage firms; and firms subject to the quota of two disabled workers or more hire 0.08 more disabled workers per additional quota job. Moreover, increasing the noncompliance tax increases excess disabled employment, whereas paying a bonus to overcomplying firms slightly dampens the employment effects of the tax.

Causality and endogeneity: Problems and solutions

Most leadership and management researchers ignore one key design and estimation problem rendering parameter estimates uninterpretable: Endogeneity. We discuss the problem of endogeneity in depth and explain conditions that engender it using examples grounded in the leadership literature. We show how consistent causal estimates can be derived from the randomized experiment, where endogeneity is eliminated by experimental design. We then review the reasons why estimates may become biased (i.e., inconsistent) in non-experimental designs and present a number of useful remedies for examining causal relations with non-experimental data. We write in intuitive terms using nontechnical language to make this chapter accessible to a large audience.

Propagation du virus de la grippe dans les transports aériens et survie du virus dans l'air ambiant

Chaque hiver en France, la grippe saisonnière touche entre 2 et 7 millions de personnes, dont environ 1 000 cas mortels, surtout parmi les personnes de plus de 65 ans. Elle constitue ainsi la première cause de mortalité par maladie infectieuse. L'agent causal est un virus à ARN très contagieux, pouvant appartenir à différent type (A, B ou C). Le type A est composé d'une large gamme de sous-types classés selon les différentes sortes et associations de protéines de surface du virus. Parmi ceux-ci, les sous-types H1N1 et H3N2 circulent actuellement chez l'Homme. La transmission inter-humaine de la maladie se fait principalement par voie aéroportée par le biais des gouttelettes riches en virus provenant des accès de toux et des éternuements des sujets infectés. Le coût sanitaire et social annuel de la grippe est estimé à 460 millions d'euros pour une épidémie moyenne. La prévention de la grippe repose sur une vaccination annuelle, proposée dans la plupart des pays industrialisés aux personnes à risque. Cependant, la couverture vaccinale en France n'était que de 23 % de la population générale en 2011-2012 (62 % chez les plus de 50 ans). Dès lors, environ 80 % des individus sont susceptibles de contracter la maladie. Les transports en commun constituent des environnements idéaux pour la dissémination des virus. En effet, la grande promiscuité entre les passagers potentiellement malades et les passagers sains favorise la propagation de la maladie. Dans ces conditions, l'évaluation du risque d'infection est utile pour appliquer une prévention ciblée. Le but du premier article analysé (Gupta et al., 2012) était, précisément, d'évaluer le risque, pour un passager sain, de contracter le virus de la grippe dans un avion transportant un passager malade. Les auteurs du second article analysé (Pyankov et al., 2012) ont estimé le temps de survie de différents sous-types de virus de la grippe dans l'air ambiant d'une chambre expérimentale.

Evolutionary history and its relevance in understanding and conserving southern African biodiversity

Abstract : Understanding how biodiversity is distributed is central to any conservation effort and has traditionally been based on niche modeling and the causal relationship between spatial distribution of organisms and their environment. More recently, the study of species' evolutionary history and relatedness has permeated the fields of ecology and conservation and, coupled with spatial predictions, provides useful insights to the origin of current biodiversity patterns, community structuring and potential vulnerability to extinction. This thesis explores several key ecological questions by combining the fields of niche modeling and phylogenetics and using important components of southern African biodiversity. The aims of this thesis are to provide comparisons of biodiversity measures, to assess how climate change will affect evolutionary history loss, to ask whether there is a clear link between evolutionary history and morphology and to investigate the potential role of relatedness in macro-climatic niche structuring. The first part of my thesis provides a fine scale comparison and spatial overlap quantification of species richness and phylogenetic diversity predictions for one of the most diverse plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR), the Proteaceae. In several of the measures used, patterns do not match sufficiently to argue that species relatedness information is implicit in species richness patterns. The second part of my thesis predicts how climate change may affect threat and potential extinction of southern African animal and plant taxa. I compare present and future niche models to assess whether predicted species extinction will result in higher or lower V phylogenetic diversity survival than what would be experienced under random extinction processes. l find that predicted extinction will result in lower phylogenetic diversity survival but that this non-random pattern will be detected only after a substantial proportion of the taxa in each group has been lost. The third part of my thesis explores the relationship between phylogenetic and morphological distance in southern African bats to assess whether long evolutionary histories correspond to equally high levels of morphological variation, as predicted by a neutral model of character evolution. I find no such evidence; on the contrary weak negative trends are detected for this group, as well as in simulations of both neutral and convergent character evolution. Finally, I ask whether spatial and climatic niche occupancy in southern African bats is influenced by evolutionary history or not. I relate divergence time between species pairs to climatic niche and range overlap and find no evidence for clear phylogenetic structuring. I argue that this may be due to particularly high levels of micro-niche partitioning. Résumé : Comprendre la distribution de la biodiversité représente un enjeu majeur pour la conservation de la nature. Les analyses se basent le plus souvent sur la modélisation de la niche écologique à travers l'étude des relations causales entre la distribution spatiale des organismes et leur environnement. Depuis peu, l'étude de l'histoire évolutive des organismes est également utilisée dans les domaines de l'écologie et de la conservation. En combinaison avec la modélisation de la distribution spatiale des organismes, cette nouvelle approche fournit des informations pertinentes pour mieux comprendre l'origine des patterns de biodiversité actuels, de la structuration des communautés et des risques potentiels d'extinction. Cette thèse explore plusieurs grandes questions écologiques, en combinant les domaines de la modélisation de la niche et de la phylogénétique. Elle s'applique aux composants importants de la biodiversité de l'Afrique australe. Les objectifs de cette thèse ont été l) de comparer différentes mesures de la biodiversité, 2) d'évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques à venir sur la perte de diversité phylogénétique, 3) d'analyser le lien potentiel entre diversité phylogénétique et diversité morphologique et 4) d'étudier le rôle potentiel de la phylogénie sur la structuration des niches macro-climatiques des espèces. La première partie de cette thèse fournit une comparaison spatiale, et une quantification du chevauchement, entre des prévisions de richesse spécifique et des prédictions de la diversité phylogénétique pour l'une des familles de plantes les plus riches en espèces de la région floristique du Cap (CFR), les Proteaceae. Il résulte des analyses que plusieurs mesures de diversité phylogénétique montraient des distributions spatiales différentes de la richesse spécifique, habituellement utilisée pour édicter des mesures de conservation. La deuxième partie évalue les effets potentiels des changements climatiques attendus sur les taux d'extinction d'animaux et de plantes de l'Afrique australe. Pour cela, des modèles de distribution d'espèces actuels et futurs ont permis de déterminer si l'extinction des espèces se traduira par une plus grande ou une plus petite perte de diversité phylogénétique en comparaison à un processus d'extinction aléatoire. Les résultats ont effectivement montré que l'extinction des espèces liées aux changements climatiques pourrait entraîner une perte plus grande de diversité phylogénétique. Cependant, cette perte ne serait plus grande que celle liée à un processus d'extinction aléatoire qu'à partir d'une forte perte de taxons dans chaque groupe. La troisième partie de cette thèse explore la relation entre distances phylogénétiques et morphologiques d'espèces de chauves-souris de l'Afrique australe. ll s'agit plus précisément de déterminer si une longue histoire évolutive correspond également à des variations morphologiques plus grandes dans ce groupe. Cette relation est en fait prédite par un modèle neutre d'évolution de caractères. Aucune évidence de cette relation n'a émergé des analyses. Au contraire, des tendances négatives ont été détectées, ce qui représenterait la conséquence d'une évolution convergente entre clades et des niveaux élevés de cloisonnement pour chaque clade. Enfin, la dernière partie présente une étude sur la répartition de la niche climatique des chauves-souris de l'Afrique australe. Dans cette étude je rapporte temps de divergence évolutive (ou deux espèces ont divergé depuis un ancêtre commun) au niveau de chevauchement de leurs niches climatiques. Les résultats n'ont pas pu mettre en évidence de lien entre ces deux paramètres. Les résultats soutiennent plutôt l'idée que cela pourrait être I dû à des niveaux particulièrement élevés de répartition de la niche à échelle fine.

Analysis of epidermis- and mesophyll-specific transcript accumulation in powdery mildew-inoculated wheat leaves.

Powdery mildew is an important disease of wheat caused by the obligate biotrophic fungus Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici. This pathogen invades exclusively epidermal cells after penetrating directly through the cell wall. Because powdery mildew colonizes exclusively epidermal cells, it is of importance not only to identify genes which are activated, but also to monitor tissue specificity of gene activation. Acquired resistance of wheat to powdery mildew can be induced by a previous inoculation with the non-host pathogen B. graminis f. sp. hordei, the causal agent of barley powdery mildew. The establishment of the resistant state is accompanied by the activation of genes. Here we report the tissue-specific cDNA-AFLP analysis and cloning of transcripts accumulating 6 and 24 h after the resistance-inducing inoculation with B. graminis f. sp. hordei. A total of 25,000 fragments estimated to represent about 17,000 transcripts were displayed. Out of these, 141 transcripts, were found to accumulate after Bgh inoculation using microarray hybridization analysis. Forty-four accumulated predominantly in the epidermis whereas 76 transcripts accumulated mostly in mesophyll tissue.

Repression and Protest Structural Models and Strategic Interactions

The recent wave of upheavals and revolts in Northern Africa and the Middle East goes back to an old question often raised by theories of collective action: does repression act as a negative or positive incentive for further mobilization? Through a review of the vast literature devoted to this question, this article aims to go beyond theoretical and methodological dead-ends. The article moves on to non-Western settings in order to better understand, via a macro-sociological and dynamic approach, the causal effects between mobilizations and repression. It pleads for a meso- and micro-level approach to this issue: an approach that puts analytical emphasis both on protest organizations and on individual activists' careers.

Genetic causes of transitions from sexual reproduction to asexuality in plants and animals.

The persistence of sexual reproduction in the face of competition from asexual invaders is more likely if asexual lineages are produced infrequently or have low fitness. The generation rate and success of new asexual lineages will be influenced by the proximate mechanisms underlying transitions to asexuality. As such, characterization of these mechanisms can help explain the distribution of reproductive modes among natural populations. Here, we synthesize the literature addressing proximate causes of transitions from sexual to asexual reproduction in plants and animals. In cyclical and facultatively asexual taxa, individual mutations can cause obligate asexuality. The evolution of asexuality in obligately sexual groups is more complex, requiring the simultaneous acquisition of two traits generally controlled by different genetic factors: unreduced gamete formation and spontaneous development of unfertilized gametes. At least three 'pre-adaptations' could favour transitions to obligate asexuality in obligate sexuals. First, linkage among loci affecting separate key components of asexuality facilitates its spread, with evidence for these linkage blocks in plants. Second, asexuality should evolve more readily in haplodiploids; support for this hypothesis comes from two examples where a single locus causes transitions to asexuality. Third, standing genetic variation for the production of unreduced gametes could facilitate transitions to asexuality, but whether the ability to produce unreduced gametes contributes to the evolution of obligate asexuality remains unclear. We close by reviewing the associations between asexuality, hybridization and polyploidy, and argue that current data suggest that hybridization is more likely to play a causal role in transitions to asexuality than polyploidy.

Limites e possibilidades do trabalho do enfermeiro na estratégia saúde da família: em busca da autonomia

Questiona-se de que forma o enfermeiro pode contribuir para a consolidação da Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF), no âmbito do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), na busca da autonomia profissional. Discutem-se os limites e as possibilidades do trabalho do enfermeiro na ESF para a consolidação do SUS; avalia-se a oferta de consultas de enfermagem realizadas pela ESF de Belo Horizonte (BH); reflete-se sobre a face política da autonomia nos posicionamentos dos enfermeiros. Estudo de caso de natureza quanti-qualitativa. Foi avaliada a oferta de consultas de enfermagem em Unidades Básicas de Saúde (UBS) a partir de dados secundários e parâmetros oficiais, como indicativos de autonomia. Em seguida, analisou-se a autonomia no trabalho da ESF por meio de grupos focais. O enfermeiro pode fortalecer a ESF para a consolidação do SUS, se melhor compreender o contexto sócio-histórico, a ambiguidade das relações de poder e a prática social da profissão, aperfeiçoando-a crítica, coletiva e criativamente.

Early-onset acquired epileptic aphasia (Landau-Kleffner syndrome, LKS) and regressive autistic disorders with epileptic EEG abnormalities: the continuing debate.

Early-onset acquired epileptic aphasia (Landau-Kleffner syndrome) may present as a developmental language disturbance and the affected child may also exhibit autistic features. Landau-Kleffner is now seen as the rare and severe end of a spectrum of cognitive-behavioural symptoms that can be seen in idiopathic (genetic) focal epilepsies of childhood, the benign end being the more frequent typical rolandic epilepsy. Several recent studies show that many children with rolandic epilepsy have minor developmental cognitive and behavioural problems and that some undergo a deterioration (usually temporary) in these domains, the so-called "atypical" forms of the syndrome. The severity and type of deterioration correlate with the site and spread of the epileptic spikes recorded on the electroencephalogram within the perisylvian region, and continuous spike-waves during sleep (CSWS) frequently occur during this period of the epileptic disorder. Some of these children have more severe preexisting communicative and language developmental disorders. If early stagnation or regression occurs in these domains, it presumably reflects epileptic activity in networks outside the perisylvian area, i.e. those involved in social cognition and emotions. Longitudinal studies will be necessary to find out if and how much the bioelectrical abnormalities play a causal role in these subgroup of children with both various degrees of language and autistic regression and features of idiopathic focal epilepsy. One has to remember that it took nearly 40 years to fully acknowledge the epileptic origin of aphasia in Landau-Kleffner syndrome and the milder acquired cognitive problems in rolandic epilepsies.

El ciclo del fantástico en M. Night Shyamalan

El objeto de esta investigación es detectar la idiosincrasia del fantástico en M. Night Shyamalan. Es decir, qué manifestaciones de modo y estilo ofrecen sus películas, y si existe un elemento que constituya la forma causal y determinadora de su ciclo del fantástico. Para ello se ha partido de unadoble perspectiva. La primera es un estudio de género. A partir de las constantes del fantástico literario y cinematográfico, destacadas por diversos autores, se llega a la modalización del discurso fantástico de Shyamalan. La segunda es un estudio estilístico. El Estilo Trascendental, definido por Paul Schrader, es la base, junto a otras clasificaciones análogas, para averiguar si el estilo del director encaja en las coordenadas de lo que sería el Fantástico Trascendental. Finalmente, elanálisis se completa con las características expresivas de Shyamalan que, integradas en lo anterior, conducen a la pausa como forma del Fantástico Trascendental de este director.