Knowledge based crime scenario modelling

A crucial concern in the evaluation of evidence related to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically constructing crime scenarios from evidence is difficult to develop because of the almost infinite variation of plausible crime scenarios. This paper introduces a novel knowledge driven methodology for crime scenario construction and it presents a decision support system based on it. The approach works by storing the component events of the scenarios instead of entire scenarios and by providing an algorithm that can instantiate and compose these component events into useful scenarios. The scenario composition approach is highly adaptable to unanticipated cases because it allows component events to match the case under investigation in many different ways. Given a description of the available evidence, it generates a network of plausible scenarios that can then be analysed to devise effective evidence collection strategies. The applicability of the ideas presented here are demonstrated by means of a realistic example and prototype decision support software.

Leakage Detection And Localization Method Based On A Hybrid Inverse/Direct Modelling Approach Suitable For Handling Multiple-Leak Scenarios

When an accurate hydraulic network model is available, direct modeling techniques are very straightforward and reliable for on-line leakage detection and localization applied to large class of water distribution networks. In general, this type of techniques based on analytical models can be seen as an application of the well-known fault detection and isolation theory for complex industrial systems. Nonetheless, the assumption of single leak scenarios is usually made considering a certain leak size pattern which may not hold in real applications. Upgrading a leak detection and localization method based on a direct modeling approach to handle multiple-leak scenarios can be, on one hand, quite straightforward but, on the other hand, highly computational demanding for large class of water distribution networks given the huge number of potential water loss hotspots. This paper presents a leakage detection and localization method suitable for multiple-leak scenarios and large class of water distribution networks. This method can be seen as an upgrade of the above mentioned method based on a direct modeling approach in which a global search method based on genetic algorithms has been integrated in order to estimate those network water loss hotspots and the size of the leaks. This is an inverse / direct modeling method which tries to take benefit from both approaches: on one hand, the exploration capability of genetic algorithms to estimate network water loss hotspots and the size of the leaks and on the other hand, the straightforwardness and reliability offered by the availability of an accurate hydraulic model to assess those close network areas around the estimated hotspots. The application of the resulting method in a DMA of the Barcelona water distribution network is provided and discussed. The obtained results show that leakage detection and localization under multiple-leak scenarios may be performed efficiently following an easy procedure.

Sustainable silvopastoral systems: theory and a practical case

Muitas transformações são esperadas por causa das mudanças do clima, especialmente das atividades agrícolas realizadas nos trópicos. Esta tese centra-se em dois aspectos. O primeiro deles é o de reunir o conhecimento de sistemas silvipastoris; este ponto de vista estabelece a importância de solos tropicais e sua gestão adequada de acordo com as normas ambientais e sustentáveis. A segunda parte da tese é a aplicação desses princípios em um caso específico: a fazenda "El Paraíso". O objetivo central ou problema a resolver da segunda parte é propor um projeto para melhorar as atividades de produção de carne e, ao mesmo tempo, ajudar a preservar e melhorar o meio ambiente e especialmente os ecossistemas tropicais. A metodologia utilizada na tese foi buscar e analisar informações sobre o assunto. Depois disso, a investigação experimental e de campo foi realizada para levantar o projeto que combinaria as duas partes da obra. No final, com a informação recolhida uma proposta de projeto foi feita. O objetivo era propor a transformação dos processos de produção na fazenda selecionada. Logo de desenvolver e apresentar o projeto, foram analisadas as possibilidades de implementação do projeto. A conclusão do estudo foi o de apresentar e discutir três cenários possíveis após a implementação. Finalmente, a conclusão geral apresenta as realizações, as oportunidades e possíveis expansões futuras do projeto.

Phylogenetic structure of Guinea-Bissau ethnic groups for mitochondrial DNA and Y chromosome genetic systems

The maternal and paternal genetic profile of Guineans is markedly sub-Saharan West African, with the majority of lineages belonging to L0-L3 mtDNA sub-clusters and E3a-M2 and E1-M33 Y chromosome haplogroups. Despite the sociocultural differences among Guinea-Bissau ethnic groups,marked by the supposedly strict admixture barriers, their genetic pool remains largely common. Their extant variation coalesces at distinct timeframes, from the initial occupation of the area to later inputs of people. Signs of recent expansion in mtDNA haplogroups L2a-L2c and NRY E3a-M2 suggest population growth in the equatorial western fringe, possibly supported by an early local agricultural centre, and to which the Mandenka and the Balanta people may relate. Non-West African signatures are traceable in less frequent extant haplogroups, fitting well with the linguistic and historical evidence regarding particular ethnic groups: the Papel and Felupe-Djola people retain traces of their putative East African relatives; U6 and M1b among Guinea-Bissau Bak-speakers indicate partial diffusion to Sahel of North African lineages; U5b1b lineages in Fulbe and Papel represent a link to North African Berbers, emphasizing the great importance of post-glacial expansions; exact matches of R1b-P25 and E3b1-M78 with Europeans likely trace back to the times of the slave trade.

Chronic Diseases: Chronic Diseases and Development 2 Health, agricultural, and economic effects of adoption of healthy diet recommendations

Transition to diets that are high in saturated fat and sugar has caused a global public health concern as the pattern of food consumption is a mayor modifiable risk factor for chronic non-communicable diseases Although agri food systems are intimately associated with this transition, agriculture and health sectors are largely disconnected in their priorities policy, and analysis with neither side considering the complex inter relation between agri trade patterns of food consumption health, and development We show the importance of connection of these perspectives through estimation of the effect of adopting a healthy diet on population health, agricultural production trade the economy and livelihoods, with a computable general equilibrium approach on the basis of case studies from the UK and Brazil we suggest that benefits of a healthy diet policy will vary substantially between different populations, not only because of population dietary intake but also because of agricultural production trade and other economic factors

Effects of different soil tillage systems and coverages on soybean crop in the Botucatu Region in Brazil

Nowadays, agricultural practices should combine high yields with a sustainable use of resources. Different tillage practices and crop covers, if combined, may help to achieve both objectives. In this work, several traits of a soybean (Glycine max L. Merr) cultivar were studied under different conditions of tillage and previous soil coverages. The experiment was installed at Lageado Research Station, Botucatu county, SP, Brazil, on a Paleudult. It consisted of nine treatments (combining three systems of soil tillage and three cover crops) and 4 replicates, yielding 36 plots of a randomized block experimental design. The soil tillage systems considered were: (i) conventional tillage with two heavy harrowing and a levelling harrowing; (ii) chiseling, and (iii) no-tillage with chemical drying of vegetation. The three cover crops used were: black oat, sorghum and spontaneous vegetation. Analyzed variables were: plant height, initial and final plant densities, height of first pod insertion, weight of a thousand grains, number of pods per plant, number of grains per pod, and crop yield. No significant differences were observed for most of the analyzed variables; however, conventional tillage produced significantly heavier grains and a higher number of pods per plant. The selected covers were considered an excellent coverage prior to planting soybean in a crop rotation. The three tillage systems can be used for deployment of culture without compromising the development of soybean.

Systems of aerial spraying for soybean rust control

A ferrugem asiática da soja, causada pelo fungo Phakopsora pachyrhizi, é considerada a principal doença da soja, e, portanto, a escolha e o uso adequado dos equipamentos de pulverização são essenciais para seu controle. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho de diferentes equipamentos de pulverização aérea para o controle curativo da ferrugem da soja, utilizando o fungicida Impact 125 SC (flutriafol) a 0,5 L p c ha-1. Os seguintes tratamentos foram avaliados: atomizador Micronair AU 5000 (10 L ha-1 com óleo e 20 L ha-1 sem óleo na calda); atomizador Stol ARD (10 e 20 L ha-1 ambos com óleo) e o sistema eletrostático Spectrum (10 L ha-1 sem óleo a 64 e 71% de umidade relativa). Utilizou-se óleo de algodão (1,0 L ha-1) acrescido de emulsificante BR 455 a 0,025 L ha-1. O ensaio foi realizado na terceira aplicação de fungicidas, quando foram analisadas quatro repetições nas áreas aplicadas e quatro testemunhas não aplicadas para cada tratamento, avaliando-se a severidade da ferrugem, os depósitos de flutriafol nas folhas de soja e o percentual de redução de ferrugem. A análise dos depósitos nas folhas mostrou que não houve diferenças significativas entre os tratamentos. Os melhores controles da ferrugem foram obtidos com os tratamentos Micronair (10 L ha-1 com óleo), Stol (20 L ha-1 com óleo) e o sistema elestrostático (10 L ha-1) com a menor umidade relativa do ar (64 %).

Stochastic modelling considering ionospheric scintillation effects on GNSS relative and point positioning

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A novel approach based on recurrent neural networks applied to nonlinear systems optimization

This paper presents an efficient approach based on recurrent neural network for solving nonlinear optimization. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed and its internal parameters are computed using the valid subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the convergence of the network to the equilibrium points that represent an optimal feasible solution. The main advantage of the developed network is that it treats optimization and constraint terms in different stages with no interference with each other. Moreover, the proposed approach does not require specification of penalty and weighting parameters for its initialization. A study of the modified Hopfield model is also developed to analyze its stability and convergence. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed neural network. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A contribution for thermoeconomic modelling: A methodology proposal

This work presents a thermoeconomic optimization methodology for the analysis and design of energy systems. This methodology involves economic aspects related to the exergy conception, in order to develop a tool to assist the equipment selection, operation mode choice as well as to optimize the thermal plants design. It also presents the concepts related to exergy in a general scope and in thermoeconomics which combines the thermal sciences principles (thermodynamics, heat transfer, and fluid mechanics) and the economic engineering in order to rationalize energy systems investment decisions, development and operation. Even in this paper, it develops a thermoeconomic methodology through the use of a simple mathematical model, involving thermodynamics parameters and costs evaluation, also defining the objective function as the exergetic production cost. The optimization problem evaluation is developed for two energy systems. First is applied to a steam compression refrigeration system and then to a cogeneration system using backpressure steam turbine. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stability analysis of power systems described with detailed models by automatic method

The power system stability analysis is approached taking into explicit account the dynamic performance of generators internal voltages and control devices. The proposed method is not a direct method in the usual sense since conclusion for stability or instability is not exclusively based on energy function considerations but it is automatic since the conclusion is achieved without an analyst intervention. The stability test accounts for the nonconservative nature of the system with control devices such as the automatic voltage regulator (AVR) and automatic generation control (AGC) in contrast with the well-known direct methods. An energy function is derived for the system with machines forth-order model, AVR and AGC and it is used to start the analysis procedure and to point out criticalities. The conclusive analysis itself is made by means of a method based on the definition of a region surrounding the equilibrium point where the system net torque is equilibrium restorative. This region is named positive synchronization region (PSR). Since the definition of the PSR boundaries have no dependence on modelling approximation, the PSR test conduces to reliable results. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemical attributes of a savannah Typic Hapludox soil under management systems

O trabalho teve por objetivo estudar as modificações de atributos químicos de um Latossolo Vermelho após dois anos de manejo com adubação orgânica e/ou mineral com diferentes sistemas de cultivo. O experimento foi realizado na área experimental da Universidade Estadual Paulista - UNESP, localizada no município de Selvíria, Estado do Mato Grosso do Sul, no ano agrícola 2004/2005 e 2005/2006. Os tratamentos foram: cultivo convencional; cultivo mínimo e semeadura direta. As adubações foram: testemunha (sem adubação); adubação mineral (300 kg ha-1 da fórmula 20-00-20); adubação orgânica (esterco bovino - 20 Mg ha-1); adubação orgânica (esterco bovino) + ½ adubação mineral recomendada para a cultura utilizada; 20 e 30 Mg ha-1 de lodo de esgoto. em um ano foi utilizada a soja como cultura e no seguinte o sorgo. Avaliaram-se os atributos químicos do solo em quatro camadas. Os atributos químicos do Latossolo Vermelho foram modificados no primeiro ano após as adubações; a adubação com esterco, lodo de esgoto e a combinação do esterco+adubação mineral foram eficazes em modificar os atributos químicos do solo estudado; o lodo de esgoto foi mais eficaz na recuperação do P do solo e, a semeadura direta contribuiu para o aumento de K no solo

A review on soil carbon accumulation due to the management change of major Brazilian agricultural activities

Áreas agrícolas trocam enormes fluxos de CO2, oferecendo uma oportunidade para mitigar o efeito estufa. Neste trabalho, estudou-se o potencial de sequestro de carbono em razão da conversão no manejo das principais atividades agrícolas do Brasil. Dados de vários estudos têm indicado que no sistema soja/milho e nas respectivas rotações, ocorre um sequestro de carbono no solo significativo ao longo dos anos de conversão do plantio convencional para o plantio direto, com uma média de 0,41 Mg C ha-1 ano-1. O mesmo efeito tem sido observado nos canaviais, porém há maiores acúmulos de carbono no solo quando as áreas de cana-de-açúcar são convertidas da colheita baseada na queima para a mecanizada, em que grandes quantidades de palha são deixadas na superfície do solo (1,8 Mg C ha-1 ano-1). Esse maior potencial de acúmulo de carbono no solo nos canaviais, comparado com outras culturas, está diretamente relacionado com a maior produção primária dessa cultura. Apesar disso, muito desse potencial de sequestro é perdido, uma vez que os canaviais são reformados, sob preparo intensivo do solo. As áreas de pasto mostram uma depleção nos estoques de carbono, quando convertidas de áreas naturais; porém, a integração dessas áreas com agricultura pode promover o aumento nos estoques de carbono do solo. Os trabalhos têm mostrado que as principais atividades agrícolas do Brasil possuem um grande potencial de mitigação, especialmente na forma de acúmulo de carbono no solo, sendo uma oportunidade para estratégias futuras.

Carbon dioxide efflux in a rhodic hapludox as affected by tillage systems in southern Brazil

Os solos agrícolas podem atuar como dreno ou fonte de C atmosférico, dependendo do sistema de manejo adotado. Este estudo foi desenvolvido em experimento de longa duração (22 anos), durante o período de 30 dias do outono, com o objetivo de avaliar o impacto de sistemas de preparo de solo (preparo convencional-PC e plantio direto-PD) nas emissões de C-CO2 de um Latossolo Vermelho distrófico, em Cruz Alta, RS. As emissões de C-CO2 do solo foram avaliadas com câmaras dinâmica (Flux Chamber 6400-09, Licor) e estática (com captação em solução alcalina), imediatamente após a colheita da soja. A temperatura e a umidade do solo foram registradas, concomitantemente com as emissões de C-CO2, por meio de sensor de temperatura e TDR manual, respectivamente, integrantes do Licor-6400. Estimou-se que, em 30 dias, uma quantidade equivalente a menos de 30 % do C aportado pelos resíduos de soja foi emitida na forma de C-CO2. As emissões de C-CO2 no solo em PD foram similares às emissões do solo em PC, independentemente do tipo de câmara utilizada. Diferenças entre sistemas de preparo quanto à emissão de C-CO2, avaliadas com a câmara dinâmica, foram verificadas somente a curto prazo (leituras diárias), com o PD apresentando maiores emissões do que o PC no início do período experimental e menores no final. A câmara dinâmica foi mais eficiente do que a estática em captar as alterações das emissões de C-CO2 em função da variação da temperatura e a porosidade preenchida por água (PPA) no solo em PD, as quais explicaram 83 e 62 % das emissões de C-CO2, respectivamente. O fator Q10, que avalia a sensibilidade da emissão de C-CO2 à temperatura do solo, foi estimado em 3,93, indicando alta sensibilidade da atividade microbiana à temperatura do solo durante o outono. As emissões de C-CO2 registradas no solo em PD com a câmara estática foram correlacionadas às da câmara dinâmica, porém com valores subestimados em relação àquela notadamente nos maiores valores de fluxo. em condições de baixa temperatura e PPA, o preparo de solo induziu limitado incremento de emissão de C-CO2.

Evaluation of economic impact of external eauivalent models used in reactive OPF studies for interconnected systems

Reactive-optimisation procedures are responsible for the minimisation of online power losses in interconnected systems. These procedures are performed separately at each control centre and involve external network representations. If total losses can be minimised by the implementation of calculated local control actions, the entire system benefits economically, but such control actions generally result in a certain degree of inaccuracy, owing to errors in the modelling of the external system. Since these errors are inevitable, they must at least be maintained within tolerable limits by external-modelling approaches. Care must be taken to avoid unrealistic loss minimisation, as the local-control actions adopted can lead the system to points of operation which will be less economical for the interconnected system as a whole. The evaluation of the economic impact of the external modelling during reactive-optimisation procedures in interconnected systems, in terms of both the amount of losses and constraint violations, becomes important in this context. In the paper, an analytical approach is proposed for such an evaluation. Case studies using data from the Brazilian South-Southeast system (810 buses) have been carried out to compare two different external-modelling approaches, both derived from the equivalent-optimal-power-flow (EOPF) model. Results obtained show that, depending on the external-model representation adopted, the loss representation can be flawed. Results also suggest some modelling features that should be adopted in the EOPF model to enhance the economy of the overall system.