Potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients: derivation and validation of a prediction model

IMPORTANCE Because effective interventions to reduce hospital readmissions are often expensive to implement, a score to predict potentially avoidable readmissions may help target the patients most likely to benefit. OBJECTIVE To derive and internally validate a prediction model for potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients using administrative and clinical data readily available prior to discharge. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS All patient discharges from any medical services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions to 3 hospitals of the Partners HealthCare network were identified using a validated computerized algorithm based on administrative data (SQLape). A simple score was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. RESULTS Among 10 731 eligible discharges, 2398 discharges (22.3%) were followed by a 30-day readmission, of which 879 (8.5% of all discharges) were identified as potentially avoidable. The prediction score identified 7 independent factors, referred to as the HOSPITAL score: h emoglobin at discharge, discharge from an o ncology service, s odium level at discharge, p rocedure during the index admission, i ndex t ype of admission, number of a dmissions during the last 12 months, and l ength of stay. In the validation set, 26.7% of the patients were classified as high risk, with an estimated potentially avoidable readmission risk of 18.0% (observed, 18.2%). The HOSPITAL score had fair discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.71) and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This simple prediction model identifies before discharge the risk of potentially avoidable 30-day readmission in medical patients. This score has potential to easily identify patients who may need more intensive transitional care interventions.

Expression of trefoil factor 1 in the developing and adult rat ventral mesencephalon

Trefoil factor 1 (TFF1) belongs to a family of secreted peptides with a characteristic tree-looped trefoil structure. TFFs are mainly expressed in the gastrointestinal tract where they play a critical role in the function of the mucosal barrier. TFF1 has been suggested as a neuropeptide, but not much is known about its expression and function in the central nervous system. We investigated the expression of TFF1 in the developing and adult rat midbrain. In the adult ventral mesencephalon, TFF1-immunoreactive (-ir) cells were predominantly found in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc), the ventral tegmental area (VTA) and in periaqueductal areas. While around 90% of the TFF1-ir cells in the SNc co-expressed tyrosine hydroxylase (TH), only a subpopulation of the TH-ir neurons expressed TFF1. Some TFF1-ir cells in the SNc co-expressed the calcium-binding proteins calbindin or calretinin and nearly all were NeuN-ir confirming a neuronal phenotype, which was supported by lack of co-localization with the astroglial marker glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). Interestingly, at postnatal (P) day 7 and P14, a significantly higher proportion of TH-ir neurons in the SNc co-expressed TFF1 as compared to P21. In contrast, the proportion of TFF1-ir cells expressing TH remained unchanged during postnatal development. Furthermore, significantly more TH-ir neurons expressed TFF1 in the SNc, compared to the VTA at all four time-points investigated. Injection of the tracer fluorogold into the striatum of adult rats resulted in retrograde labeling of several TFF1 expressing cells in the SNc showing that a significant fraction of the TFF1-ir cells were projection neurons. This was also reflected by unilateral loss of TFF1-ir cells in SNc of 6-hydroxylase-lesioned hemiparkinsonian rats. In conclusion, we show for the first time that distinct subpopulations of midbrain dopaminergic neurons express TFF1, and that this expression pattern is altered in a rat model of Parkinson's disease.

Ordinary Families -Extraordinary Care Giving

Children with severe emotional problems often have multiple needs that require disparate services including child welfare, juvenile justice, health, mental health, substance abuse, and mental retardation (Stroul, 1996). However, the primary care giving responsibilities for these youngsters still remain with their families. It is the family who shelters and clothes them; provides guidance, affection, recreation, nurturing; gets them to appointments with doctors and therapists and to school dayin- and-day-out, year after year (Lourie, 1995). Despite the invaluable and irreplaceable care provided by families, they are often maligned by a system which characterizes them as having their own problems and inadequacies. The purpose of this research is to learn more about the strengths of families who care for children with severe emotional disabilities (SED). This exploratory descriptive study made use of focus groups attended by parents who are caring for such children. In order to improve services to these families, it is important that we understand how the notion of strengths play out in their everyday lives. Observations are made about the care giving plan, which all families devise in the course of caring for their child with special needs. Implications for paid professionals who serve these families are offered by presenting a model for putting family care givers at the hub of the service provision wheel.

Energy expenditure, body-part discomfort and mental work load among nurses

The purpose of this prospective observational field study was to present a model for measuring energy expenditure among nurses and to determine if there was a difference between the energy expenditure of nurses providing direct care to adult patients on general medical-surgical units in two major metropolitan hospitals and a recommended energy expenditure of 3.0 kcal/minute over 8 hours. One-third of the predicted cycle ergometer VO2max for the study population was used to calculate the recommended energy expenditure.^ Two methods were used to measure energy expenditure among participants during an 8 hour day shift. First, the Energy Expenditure Prediction Program (EEPP) developed by the University of Michigan Center for Ergonomics was used to calculate energy expenditure using activity recordings from observation (OEE; n = 39). The second method used ambulatory electrocardiography and the heart rate-oxygen consumption relationship (HREE; n = 20) to measure energy expenditure. It was concluded that energy expenditure among nurses can be estimated using the EEPP. Using classification systems from previous research, work load among the study population was categorized as "moderate" but was significantly less than (p = 0.021) 3.0 kcal/minute over 8 hours or 1/3 of the predicted VO2max.^ In addition, the relationships between OEE, body-part discomfort (BPCDS) and mental work load (MWI) were evaluated. The relationships between OEE/BPCDS and OEE/MWI were not significant (p = 0.062 and 0.091, respectively). Among the study population, body-part discomfort significantly increased for upper arms, mid-back, lower-back, legs and feet by mid-shift and by the end of the shift, the increase was also significant for neck and thighs.^ The study also provided documentation of a comprehensive list of nursing activities. Among the most important findings were the facts that the study population spent 23% of the workday in a bent posture, walked an average of 3.14 miles, and spent two-thirds of the shift doing activities other than direct patient care, such as paperwork and communicating with other departments. A discussion is provided regarding the ergonomic implications of these findings. ^

Getting Old Here and There: Opportunities and Pitfalls of Transnational Care Arrangements

This article focuses on challenges of transnational aging and family care among „guest-workers‟ from Italy and Spain. It is based on two qualitative studies on aging in migration and experiences of family care. These migrants‟ situations tend to be socioeconomically underprivileged, yet they have the option to either stay in Switzerland or return to Italy or Spain. Our results show that an additional option is available by combining elements of both national systems of reference. However, these options are often costly and have short-comings which are particularly relevant when ill health conditions demand intensified care. By then, decisions taken within the context of transnational ways of living have far-reaching consequences that affect not only the elderly migrants but also their adult children. The empirical data presented in this article illustrate how specific constellations of caring options emerge from the Swiss „guest-worker‟ migration regime and from transnational practices and choices made in earlier years.

Twenty-three per cent of the Swiss adult population are using complementary medicine

Aim of the study: This study investigated the use among the Swiss adult population and the regional dissemination in Switzerland of various methods of complementary medicine (CM). It focused on CM methods that required visiting a physician or therapist and excluded e.g. over-the-counter drugs. Data and Methods: Data of the Swiss Health Survey 2007 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. This survey is performed every 5 years in a sample and is representative of the Swiss resident population from the age of 15 on. It consists of a telephone interview followed by a written questionnaire (2007: 18'760 and 14'432 respondents, respectively) and includes questions about people's state of health, general living conditions, lifestyle, health insurance and usage of health services. Users and non-users of CM were compared using logistic regression models. Results: 23.0 % of the Swiss adult population (women: 30.5 %, men: 15.2 %) used CM during the 12 months before the survey. Homeopathy (6.4 %), osteopathy (5.4 %) and acupuncture (4.9 %) were the most popular methods. The average number of treatments within 12 months for these three methods was 3.1 ± 3.6, 3.5 ± 3.3 and 6.6 ± 5.8, respectively. For treatments with homeopathy and acupuncture, medical practitioners were more commonly consulted than non-medical practitioners, for treatments with osteopathy no difference was found. By means of logistic regression, CM users and non-users were compared. There were significant differences in the use of CM between genders, age groups, levels of education and areas of living. Women, people aged 25 to 64 years, and people with higher levels of education used CM more commonly than men, people below 25 or above 64 years of age, or those with poorer education. Lake Geneva region and central Switzerland had a higher proportion of CM users than the other regions. Discussion: Almost one fourth of the Swiss adult population had used CM within 12 months before the survey. User profiles were comparable to those in other countries. Despite a generally lower self-perceived health status, elderly people were less likely to use CM. Reference: Klein SD, Frei-Erb M, Wolf U. Usage of complementary medicine across Switzerland. Results of the Swiss Health Survey 2007. Swiss Med Wkly. 2012;142:w13666.

Twenty-three per cent of the Swiss adult population are using complementary medicine

Aim of the study Various forms of complementary medicine (CM) play an important role in the Swiss health care system, they are appreciated by a majority of the population and mostly used complementarily rather than alternatively to conventional medicine. This study investigates, how many people in Switzerland are actually being treated with CM, and what the most popular methods of CM are. Data Data of the Swiss Health Survey 2007 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. This survey is performed every 5 years amongst a sample of the Swiss resident population above 15 years of age. It consists of a telephone interview followed by a written questionnaire (2007: 18'760 and 14'432 respondents, respectively) and includes questions about people's state of health, general living conditions, lifestyle, health insurance and usage of health services. Results 23.0% of the Swiss adult population (women: 30.5%, men: 15.2%) used CM during the 12 months before the survey. Homeopathy (6.4%), osteopathy (5.4%) and acupuncture (4.9%) were the most popular methods. The average number of treatments within 12 months for these three methods was 3.1, 3.5 and 6.6, respectively. For treatments with homeopathy and acupuncture, medical practitioners were more commonly consulted than non-medical practitioners, for treatments with osteopathy no difference was found. By means of logistic regression, CM users and non-users were compared. There were significant differences in the use of CM between genders, age groups, levels of education and areas of living. Women, people aged 25 to 64 years, and people with higher education used CM more commonly than men, people below 25 or above 64 years of age, or those with poorer education. Lake Geneva region and central Switzerland had a higher proportion of CM users than the other regions. Discussion While 2 years ago, 67.0% of the Swiss population approved a referendum in favour of CM, we find that 23.0% are in fact using it. Current political discussions focus on effectiveness, cost effectiveness and suitability of CM to decide which methods should be permanently covered by the basic health insurance.

Efficient estimation of the total number of acini in adult rat lung

Pulmonary airways are subdivided into conducting and gas-exchanging airways. An acinus is defined as the small tree of gas-exchanging airways, which is fed by the most distal purely conducting airway. Until now a dissector of five consecutive sections or airway casts were used to count acini. We developed a faster method to estimate the number of acini in young adult rats. Right middle lung lobes were critical point dried or paraffin embedded after heavy metal staining and imaged by X-ray micro-CT or synchrotron radiation-based X-rays tomographic microscopy. The entrances of the acini were counted in three-dimensional (3D) stacks of images by scrolling through them and using morphological criteria (airway wall thickness and appearance of alveoli). Segmentation stopper were placed at the acinar entrances for 3D visualizations of the conducting airways. We observed that acinar airways start at various generations and that one transitional bronchiole may serve more than one acinus. A mean of 5612 (±547) acini per lung and a mean airspace volume of 0.907 (±0.108) μL per acinus were estimated. In 60-day-old rats neither the number of acini nor the mean acinar volume did correlate with the body weight or the lung volume.

The adherence to initial processes of care in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND We aimed to assess whether elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) receive recommended initial processes of care and to identify predictors of process adherence. METHODS We prospectively studied in- and outpatients aged ≥65 years with acute symptomatic VTE in a multicenter cohort study from nine Swiss university- and non-university hospitals between September 2009 and March 2011. We systematically assessed whether initial processes of care, which are recommended by the 2008 American College of Chest Physicians guidelines, were performed in each patient. We used multivariable logistic models to identify patient factors independently associated with process adherence. RESULTS Our cohort comprised 950 patients (mean age 76 years). Of these, 86% (645/750) received parenteral anticoagulation for ≥5 days, 54% (405/750) had oral anticoagulation started on the first treatment day, and 37% (274/750) had an international normalized ratio (INR) ≥2 for ≥24 hours before parenteral anticoagulation was discontinued. Overall, 35% (53/153) of patients with cancer received low-molecular-weight heparin monotherapy and 72% (304/423) of patients with symptomatic deep vein thrombosis were prescribed compression stockings. In multivariate analyses, symptomatic pulmonary embolism, hospital-acquired VTE, and concomitant antiplatelet therapy were associated with a significantly lower anticoagulation-related process adherence. CONCLUSIONS Adherence to several recommended processes of care was suboptimal in elderly patients with VTE. Quality of care interventions should particularly focus on processes with low adherence, such as the prescription of continued low-molecular-weight heparin therapy in patients with cancer and the achievement of an INR ≥2 for ≥24 hours before parenteral anticoagulants are stopped.

Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level II.

Transfusion efficacy of apheresis platelet concentrates irradiated at the day of transfusion is significantly superior compared to platelets irradiated in advance.

BACKGROUND Gamma irradiation is currently the standard care to avoid transfusion-associated graft-versus-host disease. Guidelines on gamma irradiation of blood components state that platelets (PLTs) can be irradiated at any stage in their 5-day storage and can thereafter be stored up to their normal shelf life of 5 days after collection. In this study, we explored whether the timing of irradiation has an effect on transfusion efficacy of apheresis PLT concentrates (APCs). METHODS Based on the 1-hour percent PLT recovery (PPR1h), transfusion efficacy of 1,000 eligible APCs transfused to 144 children were evaluated retrospectively. PPR1h was compared in transfused APCs irradiated at the day of transfusion and APCs irradiated in advance. RESULTS In univariate analysis, transfusion efficacy of APCs irradiated in advance was significantly lower than that of APCs irradiated at the day of transfusion (mean PPR1h 27.7 vs. 35.0%; p = 0.007). This was confirmed in multivariate analysis (p = 0.030). Compared to non-irradiated APCs, transfusion efficacy of APCs irradiated at the day of transfusion was not significantly inferior (mean difference -2.8%; 95% CI -6.1 to 0.5%; p = 0.092), but APCs irradiated in advance were clearly less efficient (mean difference -8.1%; 95% CI -12.2 to -4.0%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION Our data strongly support that APCs should not be irradiated in advance, 1.e., ≥24 h before transfusion.

New anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values for urinary 24-hour creatinine excretion based on the adult Swiss population.

BACKGROUND Urinary creatinine excretion is used as a marker of completeness of timed urine collections, which are a keystone of several metabolic evaluations in clinical investigations and epidemiological surveys. The current reference values for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion rely on observations performed in the 1960s and 1970s in relatively small and mostly selected groups, and may thus poorly fit to the present-day general European population. The aim of this study was to establish and validate anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion on adult populations with preserved renal function. METHODS We used data from two independent Swiss cross-sectional population-based studies with standardised 24-hour urinary collection and measured anthropometric variables. Only data from adults of European descent, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) and reported completeness of the urinary collection were retained. A linear regression model was developed to predict centiles of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in 1,137 participants from the Swiss Survey on Salt and validated in 994 participants from the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension. RESULTS The mean urinary creatinine excretion was 193 ± 41 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 151 ± 38 μmol/kg/24 hours in women in the Swiss Survey on Salt. The values were inversely correlated with age and body mass index (BMI). Based on current reference values (177 to 221 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 133 to 177 μmol/kg/24 hours in women), 56% of the urinary collections in the whole population and 67% in people >60 years old would have been considered as inaccurate. A linear regression model with sex, BMI and age as predictor variables was found to provide the best prediction of the observed values and showed a good fit when applied to the validation population. CONCLUSIONS We propose a validated prediction equation for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in the general European population, based on readily available variables such as age, sex and BMI, and a few derived normograms to ease its clinical application. This should help healthcare providers to interpret the completeness of a 24-hour urine collection in daily clinical practice and in epidemiological population studies.

Risk factors for potentially avoidable readmissions due to end-of-life care issues

BACKGROUND Repeated hospitalizations are frequent toward the end of life, where each admission should be an opportunity to initiate advance-care planning to high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE To identify the risk factors for having a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues among all medical patients. DESIGN Nested case-control study. SETTING/PATIENTS All 10,275 consecutive discharges from any medical service of an academic tertiary medical center in Boston, Massachusetts between July 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. MEASUREMENTS A random sample of all the potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions was independently reviewed by 9 trained physicians to identify the ones due to end-of-life issues. RESULTS Among 534, 30-day potentially avoidable readmission cases reviewed, 80 (15%) were due to an end-of-life care issue. In multivariable analysis, the following risk factors were significantly associated with a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues: number of admissions in the previous 12 months (odds ratio [OR]: 1.10 per admission, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.20), neoplasm (OR: 5.60, 95% CI: 2.85-10.98), opiate medications at discharge (OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.29-4.07), Elixhauser comorbidity index (OR: 1.16 per 5-point increase, 95% CI: 1.10-1.22). The discrimination of the model (C statistic) was 0.85. CONCLUSIONS In a medical population, we identified 4 main risk factors that were significantly associated with 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues, producing a model with very good to excellent discrimination. Patients with these risk factors might benefit from palliative care consultation prior to discharge in order to improve end-of-life care and possibly reduce unnecessary rehospitalizations.

Towards a new model of care: integrating mental health, substance use, and somatic care

Although research and clinical interventions for patients with dual disorders have been described since as early as the 1980s, the day-to-day treatment of these patients remains problematic and challenging in many countries. Throughout this book, many approaches and possible pathways have been outlined. Based upon these experiences, some key points can be extracted in order to guide to future developments. (1) New diagnostic approaches are warranted when dealing with patients who have multiple problems, given the limitations of the current categorical systems. (2) Greater emphasis should be placed on secondary prevention and early intervention for children and adolescents at an increased risk of later-life dual disorders. (3) Mental, addiction, and somatic care systems can be integrated, adopting a patient-focused approach to care delivery. (4) Recovery should be taken into consideration when defining treatment intervention and outcome goals. (5) It is important to reduce societal risk factors, such as poverty and early childhood adversity. (6) More resources are needed to provide adequate mental health care in the various countries. The development of European guidance initiatives would provide benefits in many of these areas, making it possible to ensure a more harmonized standard of care for patients with dual disorders.

Constitutive notch signaling in adult transgenic mice inhibits bFGF-induced angiogenesis and blocks ovarian follicle development

Notch signaling is important in angiogenesis during embryonic development. However, the embryonic lethal phenotypes of knock-out and transgenic mice have precluded studies of the role of Notch post-natally. To develop a mouse model that would bypass the embryonic lethal phenotype and investigate the possible role of Notch signaling in adult vessel growth, we developed transgenic mice with Cre-conditional expression of the constitutively active intracellular domain of Notch1 (IC-Notch1). Double transgenic IC-Notch1/Tie2-Cre embryos with endothelial specific IC-Notch1 expression died at embryonic day 9.5. They displayed collapsed and leaky blood vessels and defects in angiogenesis development. A tetracycline-inducible system was used to express Cre recombinase postnatally in endothelial cells. In adult mice, IC-Notch1 expression inhibited bFGF-induced neovascularization and female mice lacked mature ovarian follicles, which may reflect the block in bFGF-induced angiogenesis required for follicle growth. Our results demonstrate that Notch signaling is important for both embryonic and adult angiogenesis and indicate that the Notch signaling pathway may be a useful target for angiogenic therapies.