Vitamin D status and skin cancer risk independent of time outdoors : 11-year prospective study in and Australian community

Vitamin D may have anti-skin cancer effects, but population-based evidence is lacking. We therefore assessed associations between vitamin D status and skin cancer risk in an Australian subtropical community. We analyzed prospective skin cancer incidence for 11 years following baseline assessment of serum 25(OH)-vitamin D in 1,191 adults (average age 54 years) and used multivariable logistic regression analysis to adjust risk estimates for age, sex, detailed assessments of usual time spent outdoors, phenotypic characteristics, and other possible confounders. Participants with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) versus those below 75 nmol  l(-1) more often developed basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR)=1.51 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-2.07, P=0.01) and melanoma (OR=2.71 (95% CI: 0.98-7.48, P=0.05)). Squamous cell carcinoma incidence tended to be lower in persons with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) compared with those below 75 nmol  l(-1) (OR=0.67 (95% CI: 0.44-1.03, P=0.07)). Vitamin D status was not associated with skin cancer incidence when participants were classified as above or below 50 nmol  l(-1) 25(OH)-vitamin D. Our findings do not indicate that the carcinogenicity of high sun exposure can be counteracted by high vitamin D status. High sun exposure is to be avoided as a means to achieve high vitamin D status.

A 250 μg/week dose of vitamin D was as effective as a 50 μg/d dose in healthy adults, but a regimen of four weekly followed by monthly doses of 1250 μg raised the risk of hypercalciuria

The risk of vitamin D insufficiency is increased in persons having limited sunlight exposure and dietary vitamin D. Supplementation compliance might be improved with larger doses taken less often, but this may increase the potential for side effects. The objective of the present study was to determine whether a weekly or weekly/monthly regimen of vitamin D supplementation is as effective as daily supplementation without increasing the risk of side effects. Participants were forty-eight healthy adults who were randomly assigned for 3 months to placebo or one of three supplementation regimens: 50 μg/d (2000 IU/d, analysed dose 70 μg/d), 250 μg/week (10 000 IU/week, analysed dose 331 μg/week) or 1250 μg/week (50 000 IU/week, analysed dose 1544 μg/week) for 4 weeks and then 1250 μg/month for 2 months. Daily and weekly doses were equally effective at increasing serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D, which was significantly greater than baseline in all the supplemented groups after 30 d of treatment. Subjects in the 1250 μg treatment group, who had a BMI >26 kg/m2, had a steady increase in urinary Ca in the first 3 weeks of supplementation, and, overall, the relative risk of hypercalciuria was higher in the 1250 μg group than in the placebo group (P= 0·01). Although vitamin D supplementation remains a controversial issue, these data document that supplementing with ≤ 250 μg/week ( ≤ 10 000 IU/week) can improve or maintain vitamin D status in healthy populations without the risk of hypercalciuria, but 24 h urinary Ca excretion should be evaluated in healthy persons receiving vitamin D3 supplementation in weekly single doses of 1250 μg (50 000 IU).

A comprehensive investigation of the risky driving behaviour of young novice drivers

Young novice drivers - that is, drivers aged 16-25 years who are relatively inexperienced in driving on the road and have a novice (Learner, Provisional) driver's licence - have been overrepresented in car crash, injury and fatality statistics around the world for decades. There are numerous persistent characteristics evident in young novice driver crashes, fatalities and offences, including variables relating to the young driver themselves, broader social influences which include their passengers, the car they drive, and when and how they drive, and their risky driving behaviour in particular. Moreover, there are a range of psychosocial factors influencing the behaviour of young novice drivers, including the social influences of parents and peers, and person-related factors such as age-related factors, attitudes, and sensation seeking. Historically, a range of approaches have been developed to manage the risky driving behaviour of young novice drivers. Traditional measures predominantly relying upon education have had limited success in regulating the risky driving behaviour of the young novice driver. In contrast, interventions such as graduated driver licensing (GDL) which acknowledges young novice drivers' limitations - principally pertaining to their chronological and developmental age, and their driving inexperience - have shown to be effective in ameliorating this pervasive public health problem. In practice, GDL is a risk management tool that is designed to reduce driving at risky times (e.g., at night) or in risky driving conditions (e.g., with passengers), while still enabling novice drivers to obtain experience. In this regard, the GDL program in Queensland, Australia, was considerably enhanced in July 2007, and major additions to the program include mandated Learner practice of 100 hours recorded in a logbook, and passenger limits during night driving in the Provisional phase. Road safety researchers have also continued to consider the influential role played by the young driver's psychosocial characteristics, including psychological traits and states. In addition, whilst the majority of road safety user research is epidemiological in nature, contemporary road safety research is increasingly applying psychological and criminological theories. Importantly, such theories not only can guide young novice driver research, they can also inform the development and evaluation of countermeasures targeting their risky driving behaviour. The research is thus designed to explore the self-reported behaviours - and the personal, psychosocial, and structural influences upon the behaviours - of young novice drivers This thesis incorporates three stages of predominantly quantitative research to undertake a comprehensive investigation of the risky driving behaviour of young novices. Risky driving behaviour increases the likelihood of the young novice driver being involved in a crash which may harm themselves or other road users, and deliberate risky driving such as driving in excess of the posted speed limits is the focus of the program of research. The extant literature examining the nature of the risky behaviour of the young novice driver - and the contributing factors for this behaviour - while comprehensive, has not led to the development of a reliable instrument designed specifically to measure the risky behaviour of the young novice driver. Therefore the development and application of such a tool (the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale, or BYNDS) was foremost in the program of research. In addition to describing the driving behaviours of the young novice, a central theme of this program of research was identifying, describing, and quantifying personal, behavioural, and environmental influences upon young novice driver risky behaviour. Accordingly the 11 papers developed from the three stages of research which comprise this thesis are framed within Bandura's reciprocal determinism model which explicitly considers the reciprocal relationship between the environment, the person, and their behaviour. Stage One comprised the foundation research and operationalised quantitative and qualitative methodologies to finalise the instrument used in Stages Two and Three. The first part of Stage One involved an online survey which was completed by 761 young novice drivers who attended tertiary education institutions across Queensland. A reliable instrument for measuring the risky driving behaviour of young novices was developed (the BYNDS) and is currently being operationalised in young novice driver research in progress at the Centre for Injury Research and Prevention in Philadelphia, USA. In addition, regression analyses revealed that psychological distress influenced risky driving behaviour, and the differential influence of depression, anxiety, sensitivity to punishments and rewards, and sensation seeking propensity were explored. Path model analyses revealed that punishment sensitivity was mediated by anxiety and depression; and the influence of depression, anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity were moderated by the gender of the driver. Specifically, for males, sensation seeking propensity, depression, and reward sensitivity were predictive of self-reported risky driving, whilst for females anxiety was also influential. In the second part of Stage One, 21 young novice drivers participated in individual and small group interviews. The normative influences of parents, peers, and the Police were explicated. Content analysis supported four themes of influence through punishments, rewards, and the behaviours and attitudes of parents and friends. The Police were also influential upon the risky driving behaviour of young novices. The findings of both parts of Stage One informed the research of Stage Two. Stage Two was a comprehensive investigation of the pre-Licence and Learner experiences, attitudes, and behaviours, of young novice drivers. In this stage, 1170 young novice drivers from across Queensland completed an online or paper survey exploring their experiences, behaviours and attitudes as a pre- and Learner driver. The majority of novices did not drive before they were licensed (pre-Licence driving) or as an unsupervised Learner, submitted accurate logbooks, intended to follow the road rules as a Provisional driver, and reported practicing predominantly at the end of the Learner period. The experience of Learners in the enhanced-GDL program were also examined and compared to those of Learner drivers who progressed through the former-GDL program (data collected previously by Bates, Watson, & King, 2009a). Importantly, current-GDL Learners reported significantly more driving practice and a longer Learner period, less difficulty obtaining practice, and less offence detection and crash involvement than Learners in the former-GDL program. The findings of Stage Two informed the research of Stage Three. Stage Three was a comprehensive exploration of the driving experiences, attitudes and behaviours of young novice drivers during their first six months of Provisional 1 licensure. In this stage, 390 of the 1170 young novice drivers from Stage Two completed another survey, and data collected during Stages Two and Three allowed a longitudinal investigation of self-reported risky driving behaviours, such as GDL-specific and general road rule compliance; risky behaviour such as pre-Licence driving, crash involvement and offence detection; and vehicle ownership, paying attention to Police presence, and punishment avoidance. Whilst the majority of Learner and Provisional drivers reported compliance with GDL-specific and general road rules, 33% of Learners and 50% of Provisional drivers reported speeding by 10-20 km/hr at least occasionally. Twelve percent of Learner drivers reported pre-Licence driving, and these drivers were significantly more risky as Learner and Provisional drivers. Ten percent of males and females reported being involved in a crash, and 10% of females and 18% of males had been detected for an offence, within the first six months of independent driving. Additionally, 75% of young novice drivers reported owning their own car within six months of gaining their Provisional driver's licence. Vehicle owners reported significantly shorter Learner periods and more risky driving exposure as a Provisional driver. Paying attention to Police presence on the roads appeared normative for young novice drivers: 91% of Learners and 72% of Provisional drivers reported paying attention. Provisional drivers also reported they actively avoided the Police: 25% of males and 13% of females; 23% of rural drivers and 15% of urban drivers. Stage Three also allowed the refinement of the risky behaviour measurement tool (BYNDS) created in Stage One; the original reliable 44-item instrument was refined to a similarly reliable 36-item instrument. A longitudinal exploration of the influence of anxiety, depression, sensation seeking propensity and reward sensitivity upon the risky behaviour of the Provisional driver was also undertaken using data collected in Stages Two and Three. Consistent with the research of Stage One, structural equation modeling revealed anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity predicted self-reported risky driving behaviour. Again, gender was a moderator, with only reward sensitivity predicting risky driving for males. A measurement model of Akers' social learning theory (SLT) was developed containing six subscales operationalising the four constructs of differential association, imitation, personal attitudes, and differential reinforcement, and the influence of parents and peers was captured within the items in a number of these constructs. Analyses exploring the nature and extent of the psychosocial influences of personal characteristics (step 1), Akers' SLT (step 2), and elements of the prototype/willingness model (PWM) (step 3) upon self-reported speeding by the Provisional driver in a hierarchical multiple regression model found the following significant predictors: gender (male), car ownership (own car), reward sensitivity (greater sensitivity), depression (greater depression), personal attitudes (more risky attitudes), and speeding (more speeding) as a Learner. The research findings have considerable implications for road safety researchers, policy-makers, mental health professionals and medical practitioners alike. A broad range of issues need to be considered when developing, implementing and evaluating interventions for both the intentional and unintentional risky driving behaviours of interest. While a variety of interventions have been historically utilised, including education, enforcement, rehabilitation and incentives, caution is warranted. A multi-faceted approach to improving novice road safety is more likely to be effective, and new and existing countermeasures should capitalise on the potential of parents, peers and Police to be a positive influence upon the risky behaviour of young novice drivers. However, the efficacy of some interventions remains undetermined at this time. Notwithstanding this caveat, countermeasures such as augmenting and strengthening Queensland's GDL program and targeting parents and adolescents particularly warrant further attention. The findings of the research program suggest that Queensland's current-GDL can be strengthened by increasing compliance of young novice drivers with existing conditions and restrictions. The rates of speeding reported by the young Learner driver are particularly alarming for a number of reasons. The Learner is inexperienced in driving, and travelling in excess of speed limits places them at greater risk as they are also inexperienced in detecting and responding appropriately to driving hazards. In addition, the Learner period should provide the foundation for a safe lifetime driving career, enabling the development and reinforcement of non-risky driving habits. Learners who sped reported speeding by greater margins, and at greater frequencies, when they were able to drive independently. Other strategies could also be considered to enhance Queensland's GDL program, addressing both the pre-Licence adolescent and their parents. Options that warrant further investigation to determine their likely effectiveness include screening and treatment of novice drivers by mental health professionals and/or medical practitioners; and general social skills training. Considering the self-reported pre-licence driving of the young novice driver, targeted education of parents may need to occur before their child obtains a Learner licence. It is noteworthy that those participants who reported risky driving during the Learner phase also were more likely to report risky driving behaviour during the Provisional phase; therefore it appears vital that the development of safe driving habits is encouraged from the beginning of the novice period. General education of parents and young novice drivers should inform them of the considerably-increased likelihood of risky driving behaviour, crashes and offences associated with having unlimited access to a vehicle in the early stages of intermediate licensure. Importantly, parents frequently purchase the car that is used by the Provisional driver, who typically lives at home with their parents, and therefore parents are ideally positioned to monitor the journeys of their young novice driver during this early stage of independent driving. Parents are pivotal in the development of their driving child: they are models who are imitated and are sources of attitudes, expectancies, rewards and punishments; and they provide the most driving instruction for the Learner. High rates of self-reported speeding by Learners suggests that GDL programs specifically consider the nature of supervision during the Learner period, encouraging supervisors to be vigilant to compliance with general and GDL-specific road rules, and especially driving in excess of speed limit. Attitudes towards driving are formed before the adolescent reaches the age when they can be legally licensed. Young novice drivers with risky personal attitudes towards driving reported more risky driving behaviour, suggesting that countermeasures should target such attitudes and that such interventions might be implemented before the adolescent is licensed. The risky behaviours and attitudes of friends were also found to be influential, and given that young novice drivers tend to carry their friends as their passengers, a group intervention such as provided in a school class context may prove more effective. Social skills interventions that encourage the novice to resist the negative influences of their friends and their peer passengers, and to not imitate the risky driving behaviour of their friends, may also be effective. The punishments and rewards anticipated from and administered by friends were also found to influence the self-reported risky behaviour of the young novice driver; therefore young persons could be encouraged to sanction the risky, and to reward the non-risky, driving of their novice friends. Adolescent health programs and related initiatives need to more specifically consider the risks associated with driving. Young novice drivers are also adolescents, a developmental period associated with depression and anxiety. Depression, anxiety, and sensation seeking propensity were found to be predictive of risky driving; therefore interventions targeting psychological distress, whilst discouraging the expression of sensation seeking propensity whilst driving, warrant development and trialing. In addition, given that reward sensitivity was also predictive, a scheme which rewards novice drivers for safe driving behaviour - rather than rewarding the novice through emotional and instrumental rewards for risky driving behaviour - requires further investigation. The Police were also influential in the risky driving behaviour of young novices. Young novice drivers who had been detected for an offence, and then avoided punishment, reacted differentially, with some drivers appearing to become less risky after the encounter, whilst for others their risky behaviour appeared to be reinforced and therefore was more likely to be performed again. Such drivers saw t

Heuristics and building price forecasting

The construction industry contains two types of estimators the contractors' estimator and the designers' price forecaster. Each has two models of the building in which to systemize his procedures - the production model and the design model. The use of these models is discussed in the light of the industry's particular problems of complexity and uncertainty together with the pressures of the market. It is argued that estimators and forecasters, in order to function effectively in these conditions, are forced to exercise a high degree of subjective judgment. Means of eliciting good heuristics involved in judgment making are considered by reference to the artificial intelligence and construction literature and a methodology is proposed based on these findings. The results of two early trials of the method with students are given, indicating the usefulness of the approach.

Risk modelling in quality clinical registries : Monitoring lesion treatment failure rate in percutaneous coronary interventions

Aims: This paper describes the development of a risk adjustment (RA) model predictive of individual lesion treatment failure in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) for use in a quality monitoring and improvement program. Methods and results: Prospectively collected data for 3972 consecutive revascularisation procedures (5601 lesions) performed between January 2003 and September 2011 were studied. Data on procedures to September 2009 (n = 3100) were used to identify factors predictive of lesion treatment failure. Factors identified included lesion risk class (p < 0.001), occlusion type (p < 0.001), patient age (p = 0.001), vessel system (p < 0.04), vessel diameter (p < 0.001), unstable angina (p = 0.003) and presence of major cardiac risk factors (p = 0.01). A Bayesian RA model was built using these factors with predictive performance of the model tested on the remaining procedures (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.765, Hosmer–Lemeshow p value: 0.11). Cumulative sum, exponentially weighted moving average and funnel plots were constructed using the RA model and subjectively evaluated. Conclusion: A RA model was developed and applied to SPC monitoring for lesion failure in a PCI database. If linked to appropriate quality improvement governance response protocols, SPC using this RA tool might improve quality control and risk management by identifying variation in performance based on a comparison of observed and expected outcomes.

Brownfield re-development : Perceptions and risk mitigation strategies

Scarcity of large parcels of land in well-serviced areas has motivated people to re-develop brownfield land. Most of brownfield land has high risk of contamination from wide range of industrial activities such as gas works, factories, railway land and waste tips. In addition, people who live in brownfield re-development areas may be exposed to health hazards. This paper discusses public perceptions on the brownfield sites and also the risk and mitigation strategy to promote brownfield re-development. Data is gathered from face to face survey of fifty respondents who work in Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) and interview with an expert on remediation of contaminated land. From this preliminary study, it is found that majority of the population are not aware of any brownfield sites near their residence and those who are aware showed very little concern on their proximity to the site. Further discussion on the paper based on a simple cross tabulation analysis. The main risk mitigation strategy of re-development of brownfield site is by updating the registration through Environmental Management Register (EMR) and Contaminated Land Register (CLR). In addition, insurance may offer to cover cost overruns on remediation cost.

Corporate governance and risk management : the role of risk management and compensation committees

This paper examines the role of compensation and risk committees in managing and monitoring the risk behaviour of Australian financial firms in the period leading up to the global financial crisis (2006–2008). This empirical study of 711 observations of financial sector firms demonstrates how the coordination of risk management and compensation committees reduces information asymmetry. The study shows that the composition of the risk and compensation committees is positively associated with risk, which, in turn, is associated with firm performance. More importantly, information asymmetry is reduced when a director is a member of both the risk and compensation committees which moderate the negative association between risk and firm performance for firms with high risk.

Risk-taking, harm and help-seeking : reported by young people in treatment at a youth alcohol and drug counselling service

Regarded as a normative component of development, risk-taking by young people is a well-researched subject, and some risk-taking behaviours, such as substance use, are particularly well covered because of their potential to adversely affect health and wellbeing. What has remained unclear is the extent of young people's risk-taking while engaged in alcohol and other drug (AOD) treatment, their awareness of the related harms of risk-taking behaviours, and their prior help-seeking for these harms - information which may have a significant impact on the quality and relevance of the care they receive. This paper reports the findings from a brief pilot study exploring those factors in a clinical sample of young people engaged in ongoing AOD counselling.

Simulation architecture for cooperative ITS applications and augmented perception

Cooperative Systems provide, through the multiplication of information sources over the road, a lot of potential to improve the safety of road users, especially drivers. However, developing cooperative ITS applications requires additional resources compared to non-cooperative applications which are both time consuming and expensive. In this paper, we present a simulation architecture aimed at prototyping cooperative ITS applications in an accurate and detailed, close-to-reality environment; the architecture is designed to be modular and generalist. It can be used to simulate any type of CS applications as well as augmented perception. Then, we discuss the results of two applications deployed with our architecture, using a common freeway emergency braking scenario. The first application is Emergency Electronic Brake Light (EEBL); we discuss improvements in safety in terms of the number of crashes and the severity of crashes. The second application compares the performance of a cooperative risk assessment using an augmented map against a non-cooperative approach based on local-perception only. Our results show a systematic improvement of forward warning time for most vehicles in the string when using the augmented-map-based risk assessment.

Improving the measurement and surveillance of child abuse in Queensland emergency departments

There are no population studies of prevalence or incidence of child maltreatment in Australia. Child protection data gives some understanding but is restricted by system capacity and definitional issues across jurisdictions. Child protection data currently suggests that numbers of reports are increasing yearly, and the child protection system then becomes focussed on investigating all reports and diluting available resources for those children who are most in need of intervention. A public health response across multiple agencies enables responses to child safety across the entire population. All families are targeted at the primary level; examples include ensuring all parents know the dangers of shaking a baby or teaching children to say no if a situation makes them uncomfortable. The secondary level of prevention targets families with a number of risk factors, for example subsidised child care so children aren't left unsupervised after school when both parents have to be at work or home visiting for drug-addicted parents to ensure children are cared for. The tertiary response then becomes the responsibility of the child protection system and is reserved for those children where abuse and neglect are identified. This model requires that child safety is seen in a broader context than just the child protection system, and increasingly health professionals are being identified as an important component in the public health framework. If all injury is viewed as preventable and considered along a continuum of 'accidental' through to 'inflicted', it becomes possible to conceptualise child maltreatment in an injury context. Parental intent may not be to cause harm to the child, but by lack of insight or concern about risk, the potential for injury is high. The mechanisms for unintentional and intentional injury overlap and some suggest that by segregating child abuse (with the possible exception of sexual abuse) from unintentional injury, child abuse is excluded from the broader injury prevention initiative that is gaining momentum in the community. This research uses a public health perspective, specifically that of injury prevention, to consider the problem of child abuse. This study employed a mixed method design that incorporates secondary data analysis, data linkage and structured interviews of different professional groups. Datasets from the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU) and The Department of Child Safety (DCS) were evaluated. Coded injury data was grouped according to intent of injury according to those with a code that indicated the ED presentation was due to child abuse, a code indicating that the injury was possibly due to abuse or, in the third group, the intent code indicated that the injury was unintentional and not due to abuse. Primary data collection from ED records was undertaken and information recoded to assess reliability and completeness. Emergency department data (QISU) was linked to Department of Child Safety Data to examine concordance and data quality. Factors influencing the collection and collation of these data were identified through structured interview methodology and analysed using qualitative methods. Secondary analysis of QISU data indicated that codes lacking specific information on the injury event were more likely to also have an intent code indicating abuse than those records where there was specific information on the injury event. Codes for abuse appeared in only 1.2% of the 84,765 records analysed. Unintentional injury was the most commonly coded intent (95.3%). In the group with a definite abuse code assigned at triage, 83% linked to a record with DCS and cases where documentation indicated police involvement were significantly more likely to be associated with a DCS record than those without such documentation. In those coded with an unintentional injury code, 22% linked to a DCS record with cases assigned an urgent triage category more likely to link than those with a triage category for resuscitation and children who presented to regional or remote hospitals more likely to link to a DCS record than those presenting to urban hospitals. Twenty-nine per cent of cases with a code indicating possible abuse linked to a DCS record. In documentation that indicated police involvement in the case, a code for unspecified activity when compared to cases with a code indicating involvement in a sporting activity and children less than 12 months of age compared to those in the 13-17 year old age group were all variables significantly associated with linkage to a DCS record. Only 13% of records contained documentation indicating that child abuse and neglect were considered in the diagnosis of the injury despite almost half of the sample having a code of abuse or possible abuse. Doctors and nurses were confident in their knowledge of the process of reporting child maltreatment but less confident about identifying child abuse and neglect and what should be reported. Many were concerned about implications of reporting, for the child and family and for themselves. A number were concerned about the implications of not reporting, mostly for the wellbeing of the child and a few in terms of their legal obligations as mandatory reporters. The outcomes of this research will help improve the knowledge of barriers to effective surveillance of child abuse in emergency departments. This will, in turn, ensure better identification and reporting practises; more reliable official statistical collections and the potential of flagging high-risk cases to ensure adequate departmental responses have been initiated.

Young women's drinking experiences in public drinking venues

Alcohol-related mortality and morbidity represents a substantial financial burden to communities across the world. In Australia, conservative estimates place the societal cost (2004-2005) for alcohol abuse at approximately 15.3 billion dollar annually (Collins & Lapsley, 2008). Research has found that adolescence and young adulthood is a peak period for heavy episodic alcohol consumption, with over a third of all people aged 14-19 years having been at risk for acute alcohol-related harm at least once in the prior 12 months (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare [AIHW], (2008). While excessive alcohol consumption has, for a long time, been seen as a male problem; there has been a gradual shift towards a social acceptance of female drinking which has resulted in a diminishing gap in drinking quantity and style between men and women (Roche & Deehan, 2002). There is substantial evidence that women are at higher risk than men for detrimental physical, medical, social and psychological effects of at-risk alcohol consumption (Epstein, et al., 2007). Research outlining the epidemiology of women’s substance use emphasises the need for further examination into influences that may be gender specific and culturally defined (Matheson, 2008; Measham & Ostergaard, 2009). As such, there is a need to utilise female perspectives in examining alcohol consumption and alcohol related problems in order to reflect a more balanced and competent version of drinking in today’s culture (Allamani, 2008). Currently a number of reasons are offered to explain the observed trends including reduction in traditional sanctions and social norms against women drinking, financial emancipation, cultural shift and targeted advertising to name a few. However, there is yet comparatively little research examining drinking by young women in order to understand this ‘new’ drinking pattern. Most research into alcohol use and subsequent intervention and prevention campaigns have been based on male perceptions and constructs of drinking. While such approaches have provided important information regarding the quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption by women, they do not address the important question of why. To understand the why, research needs to explore the difference between males and females in the meaning of the behaviour and the place that drinking holds to them.

Coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model for multi-area ATC with risk control

In the decision-making of multi-area ATC (Available Transfer Capacity) in electricity market environment, the existing resources of transmission network should be optimally dispatched and coordinately employed on the premise that the secure system operation is maintained and risk associated is controllable. The non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the ATC probability density distribution of specified areas under the influence of several uncertainty factors, based on which, a coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model with the maximal risk benefit as its objective is developed for multi-area ATC. The NSGA-II is applied to calculate the ATC of each area, which considers the risk cost caused by relevant uncertainty factors and the synchronous coordination among areas. The essential characteristics of the developed model and the employed algorithm are illustrated by the example of IEEE 118-bus test system. Simulative result shows that, the risk of multi-area ATC decision-making is influenced by the uncertainties in power system operation and the relative importance degrees of different areas.