Towards testing a new first-order decision making model for the procurement of public sector major infrastructure

Given global demand for new infrastructure, governments face substantial challenges in funding new infrastructure and simultaneously delivering Value for Money (VfM). As background to this challenge, a brief review is given of current practice in the selection of major public sector infrastructure in Australia, along with a review of the related literature concerning the Multi-Attribute Utility Approach (MAUA) and the effect of MAUA on the role of risk management in procurement selection. To contribute towards addressing the key weaknesses of MAUA, a new first-order procurement decision making model is mentioned. A brief summary is also given of the research method and hypothesis used to test and develop the new procurement model and which uses competition as the dependent variable and as a proxy for VfM. The hypothesis is given as follows: When the actual procurement mode matches the theoretical/predicted procurement mode (informed by the new procurement model), then actual competition is expected to match optimum competition (based on actual prevailing capacity vis-à-vis the theoretical/predicted procurement mode) and subject to efficient tendering. The aim of this paper is to report on progress towards testing this hypothesis in terms of an analysis of two of the four data components in the hypothesis. That is, actual procurement and actual competition across 87 road and health major public sector projects in Australia. In conclusion, it is noted that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has seen a significant increase in competition in public sector major road and health infrastructure and if any imperfections in procurement and/or tendering are discernible, then this would create the opportunity, through the deployment of economic principles embedded in the new procurement model and/or adjustments in tendering, to maintain some of this higher level post-GFC competition throughout the next business cycle/upturn in demand including private sector demand. Finally, the paper previews the next steps in the research with regard to collection and analysis of data concerning theoretical/predicted procurement and optimum competition.

Interactive processes link the multiple symptoms of fatigue in sport competition

Muscle physiologists often describe fatigue simply as a decline of muscle force and infer this causes an athlete to slow down. In contrast, exercise scientists describe fatigue during sport competition more holistically as an exercise-induced impairment of performance. The aim of this review is to reconcile the different views by evaluating the many performance symptoms/measures and mechanisms of fatigue. We describe how fatigue is assessed with muscle, exercise or competition performance measures. Muscle performance (single muscle test measures) declines due to peripheral fatigue (reduced muscle cell force) and/or central fatigue (reduced motor drive from the CNS). Peak muscle force seldom falls by >30% during sport but is often exacerbated during electrical stimulation and laboratory exercise tasks. Exercise performance (whole-body exercise test measures) reveals impaired physical/technical abilities and subjective fatigue sensations. Exercise intensity is initially sustained by recruitment of new motor units and help from synergistic muscles before it declines. Technique/motor skill execution deviates as exercise proceeds to maintain outcomes before they deteriorate, e.g. reduced accuracy or velocity. The sensation of fatigue incorporates an elevated rating of perceived exertion (RPE) during submaximal tasks, due to a combination of peripheral and higher CNS inputs. Competition performance (sport symptoms) is affected more by decision-making and psychological aspects, since there are opponents and a greater importance on the result. Laboratory based decision making is generally faster or unimpaired. Motivation, self-efficacy and anxiety can change during exercise to modify RPE and, hence, alter physical performance. Symptoms of fatigue during racing, team-game or racquet sports are largely anecdotal, but sometimes assessed with time-motion analysis. Fatigue during brief all-out racing is described biomechanically as a decline of peak velocity, along with altered kinematic components. Longer sport events involve pacing strategies, central and peripheral fatigue contributions and elevated RPE. During match play, the work rate can decline late in a match (or tournament) and/or transiently after intense exercise bursts. Repeated sprint ability, agility and leg strength become slightly impaired. Technique outcomes, such as velocity and accuracy for throwing, passing, hitting and kicking, can deteriorate. Physical and subjective changes are both less severe in real rather than simulated sport activities. Little objective evidence exists to support exercise-induced mental lapses during sport. A model depicting mind-body interactions during sport competition shows that the RPE centre-motor cortex-working muscle sequence drives overall performance levels and, hence, fatigue symptoms. The sporting outputs from this sequence can be modulated by interactions with muscle afferent and circulatory feedback, psychological and decision-making inputs. Importantly, compensatory processes exist at many levels to protect against performance decrements. Small changes of putative fatigue factors can also be protective. We show that individual fatigue factors including diminished carbohydrate availability, elevated serotonin, hypoxia, acidosis, hyperkalaemia, hyperthermia, dehydration and reactive oxygen species, each contribute to several fatigue symptoms. Thus, multiple symptoms of fatigue can occur simultaneously and the underlying mechanisms overlap and interact. Based on this understanding, we reinforce the proposal that fatigue is best described globally as an exercise-induced decline of performance as this is inclusive of all viewpoints.

An effective approach to verbose queries using a limited dependencies language model

Intuitively, any ‘bag of words’ approach in IR should benefit from taking term dependencies into account. Unfortunately, for years the results of exploiting such dependencies have been mixed or inconclusive. To improve the situation, this paper shows how the natural language properties of the target documents can be used to transform and enrich the term dependencies to more useful statistics. This is done in three steps. The term co-occurrence statistics of queries and documents are each represented by a Markov chain. The paper proves that such a chain is ergodic, and therefore its asymptotic behavior is unique, stationary, and independent of the initial state. Next, the stationary distribution is taken to model queries and documents, rather than their initial distributions. Finally, ranking is achieved following the customary language modeling paradigm. The main contribution of this paper is to argue why the asymptotic behavior of the document model is a better representation then just the document’s initial distribution. A secondary contribution is to investigate the practical application of this representation in case the queries become increasingly verbose. In the experiments (based on Lemur’s search engine substrate) the default query model was replaced by the stable distribution of the query. Just modeling the query this way already resulted in significant improvements over a standard language model baseline. The results were on a par or better than more sophisticated algorithms that use fine-tuned parameters or extensive training. Moreover, the more verbose the query, the more effective the approach seems to become.

The role of cognitive and visual abilities as predictors in the Multifactorial Model of Driving Safety

Objective The current study evaluated part of the Multifactorial Model of Driving Safety to elucidate the relative importance of cognitive function and a limited range of standard measures of visual function in relation to the Capacity to Drive Safely. Capacity to Drive Safely was operationalized using three validated screening measures for older drivers. These included an adaptation of the well validated Useful Field of View (UFOV) and two newer measures, namely a Hazard Perception Test (HPT), and a Hazard Change Detection Task (HCDT). Method Community dwelling drivers (n = 297) aged 65–96 were assessed using a battery of measures of cognitive and visual function. Results Factor analysis of these predictor variables yielded factors including Executive/Speed, Vision (measured by visual acuity and contrast sensitivity), Spatial, Visual Closure, and Working Memory. Cognitive and Vision factors explained 83–95% of age-related variance in the Capacity to Drive Safely. Spatial and Working Memory were associated with UFOV, HPT and HCDT, Executive/Speed was associated with UFOV and HCDT and Vision was associated with HPT. Conclusion The Capacity to Drive Safely declines with chronological age, and this decline is associated with age-related declines in several higher order cognitive abilities involving manipulation and storage of visuospatial information under speeded conditions. There are also age-independent effects of cognitive function and vision that determine driving safety.

A conceptual model for manufacturing performance improvement

Purpose: Important performance objectives manufacturers sought can be achieved through adopting the appropriate manufacturing practices. This paper presents a conceptual model proposing relationship between advanced quality practices, perceived manufacturing difficulties and manufacturing performances. Design/methodology/approach: A survey-based approach was adopted to test the hypotheses proposed in this study. The selection of research instruments for inclusion in this survey was based on literature review, the pilot case studies and relevant industrial experience of the author. A sample of 1000 manufacturers across Australia was randomly selected. Quality managers were requested to complete the questionnaire, as the task of dealing with the quality and reliability issues is a quality manager’s major responsibility. Findings: Evidence indicates that product quality and reliability is the main competitive factor for manufacturers. Design and manufacturing capability and on time delivery came second. Price is considered as the least important factor for the Australian manufacturers. Results show that collectively the advanced quality practices proposed in this study neutralize the difficulties manufacturers face and contribute to the most performance objectives of the manufacturers. The companies who have put more emphasize on the advanced quality practices have less problem in manufacturing and better performance in most manufacturing performance indices. The results validate the proposed conceptual model and lend credence to hypothesis that proposed relationship between quality practices, manufacturing difficulties and manufacturing performances. Practical implications: The model shown in this paper provides a simple yet highly effective approach to achieving significant improvements in product quality and manufacturing performance. This study introduces a relationship based ‘proactive’ quality management approach and provides great potential for managers and engineers to adopt the model in a wide range of manufacturing organisations. Originality/value: Traditional ways of checking product quality are different types of testing, inspection and screening out bad products after manufacturing them. In today’s manufacturing where product life cycle is very short, it is necessary to focus on not to manufacturing them first rather than screening out the bad ones. This study introduces, for the first time, the idea of relationship based advanced quality practices (AQP) and suggests AQPs will enable manufacturers to develop reliable products and minimize the manufacturing anomalies. This paper explores some of the attributes of AQP capable of reducing manufacturing difficulties and improving manufacturing performances. The proposed conceptual model contributes to the existing knowledge base of quality practices and subsequently provides impetus and guidance towards increasing manufacturing performance.

A suspicious behaviour detection using a context space model for smart surveillance systems

Video surveillance systems using Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) cameras, is one of the fastest growing areas in the field of security technologies. However, the existing video surveillance systems are still not at a stage where they can be used for crime prevention. The systems rely heavily on human observers and are therefore limited by factors such as fatigue and monitoring capabilities over long periods of time. This work attempts to address these problems by proposing an automatic suspicious behaviour detection which utilises contextual information. The utilisation of contextual information is done via three main components: a context space model, a data stream clustering algorithm, and an inference algorithm. The utilisation of contextual information is still limited in the domain of suspicious behaviour detection. Furthermore, it is nearly impossible to correctly understand human behaviour without considering the context where it is observed. This work presents experiments using video feeds taken from CAVIAR dataset and a camera mounted on one of the buildings Z-Block) at the Queensland University of Technology, Australia. From these experiments, it is shown that by exploiting contextual information, the proposed system is able to make more accurate detections, especially of those behaviours which are only suspicious in some contexts while being normal in the others. Moreover, this information gives critical feedback to the system designers to refine the system.

A natural model for architecture

In John Frazer's seminal book An Evolutionary Architecture (1995), from which this essay is extracted, a fundamental approach is established for have natural systems can unfold mechanisms for negotiating the complex design space inherent in architectural systems. In this essay, which forms a critical part of the book, Frazer draws both correlations and distinctions from natural processes as emulated in design processes and form as active manifestations within natural systems. Form is seen as an evolving agent generated via the rules of descriptive genetic coding, functioning as a part of a metabolic environment. Frazer's process-model establishes the realm in which computation must manoeuvre to produce a valid solution space, including the operations of self-organisation, complexity and emergent behaviour. Addressing design as an authored practice, he extends the transference of 'creativity' from the explicit impression into form, to the investment of though, organisation and strategy in the computational processes which produce form. Frazer's text concentrates astutely on the practising of the evolutionary paradigm, the output of which postulates an architecture born of the relationships to dynamic environmental and socio-economic contexts, and realised through morphogenetic materialisation.

Impact of a data warehouse model for improved decision-making process in healthcare

The health system is one sector dealing with a deluge of complex data. Many healthcare organisations struggle to utilise these volumes of health data effectively and efficiently. Also, there are many healthcare organisations, which still have stand-alone systems, not integrated for management of information and decision-making. This shows, there is a need for an effective system to capture, collate and distribute this health data. Therefore, implementing the data warehouse concept in healthcare is potentially one of the solutions to integrate health data. Data warehousing has been used to support business intelligence and decision-making in many other sectors such as the engineering, defence and retail sectors. The research problem that is going to be addressed is, "how can data warehousing assist the decision-making process in healthcare". To address this problem the researcher has narrowed an investigation focusing on a cardiac surgery unit. This research used the cardiac surgery unit at the Prince Charles Hospital (TPCH) as the case study. The cardiac surgery unit at TPCH uses a stand-alone database of patient clinical data, which supports clinical audit, service management and research functions. However, much of the time, the interaction between the cardiac surgery unit information system with other units is minimal. There is a limited and basic two-way interaction with other clinical and administrative databases at TPCH which support decision-making processes. The aims of this research are to investigate what decision-making issues are faced by the healthcare professionals with the current information systems and how decision-making might be improved within this healthcare setting by implementing an aligned data warehouse model or models. As a part of the research the researcher will propose and develop a suitable data warehouse prototype based on the cardiac surgery unit needs and integrating the Intensive Care Unit database, Clinical Costing unit database (Transition II) and Quality and Safety unit database [electronic discharge summary (e-DS)]. The goal is to improve the current decision-making processes. The main objectives of this research are to improve access to integrated clinical and financial data, providing potentially better information for decision-making for both improved from the questionnaire and by referring to the literature, the results indicate a centralised data warehouse model for the cardiac surgery unit at this stage. A centralised data warehouse model addresses current needs and can also be upgraded to an enterprise wide warehouse model or federated data warehouse model as discussed in the many consulted publications. The data warehouse prototype was able to be developed using SAS enterprise data integration studio 4.2 and the data was analysed using SAS enterprise edition 4.3. In the final stage, the data warehouse prototype was evaluated by collecting feedback from the end users. This was achieved by using output created from the data warehouse prototype as examples of the data desired and possible in a data warehouse environment. According to the feedback collected from the end users, implementation of a data warehouse was seen to be a useful tool to inform management options, provide a more complete representation of factors related to a decision scenario and potentially reduce information product development time. However, there are many constraints exist in this research. For example the technical issues such as data incompatibilities, integration of the cardiac surgery database and e-DS database servers and also, Queensland Health information restrictions (Queensland Health information related policies, patient data confidentiality and ethics requirements), limited availability of support from IT technical staff and time restrictions. These factors have influenced the process for the warehouse model development, necessitating an incremental approach. This highlights the presence of many practical barriers to data warehousing and integration at the clinical service level. Limitations included the use of a small convenience sample of survey respondents, and a single site case report study design. As mentioned previously, the proposed data warehouse is a prototype and was developed using only four database repositories. Despite this constraint, the research demonstrates that by implementing a data warehouse at the service level, decision-making is supported and data quality issues related to access and availability can be reduced, providing many benefits. Output reports produced from the data warehouse prototype demonstrated usefulness for the improvement of decision-making in the management of clinical services, and quality and safety monitoring for better clinical care. However, in the future, the centralised model selected can be upgraded to an enterprise wide architecture by integrating with additional hospital units’ databases.