869 resultados para ARMA o ARIMA methodology


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Spreadsheets are widely used but often contain faults. Thus, in prior work we presented a data-flow testing methodology for use with spreadsheets, which studies have shown can be used cost-effectively by end-user programmers. To date, however, the methodology has been investigated across a limited set of spreadsheet language features. Commercial spreadsheet environments are multiparadigm languages, utilizing features not accommodated by our prior approaches. In addition, most spreadsheets contain large numbers of replicated formulas that severely limit the efficiency of data-flow testing approaches. We show how to handle these two issues with a new data-flow adequacy criterion and automated detection of areas of replicated formulas, and report results of a controlled experiment investigating the feasibility of our approach.

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Many organizations are currently facing inventory management problems such as distributing inventory on-time and maintain the correct inventory levels to satisfy the customer or end users. Organizations understand the need for maintaining the accurate inventory levels but sometimes fall short leading a wide performance gap in maintaining inventory accurately. The inventory inaccuracy can consume much of the investment on purchasing inventory and many times leads to excessive inventory. The research objective of thesis is to provide a decision making criteria to the management for closing or maintaining the warehouse based on basic purchasing and holding cost information. The specific objectives provide information regarding the impact of inventory carrying cost, obsolete inventory, inventory turns. The methodology section explains about the carrying cost ratio that would help inventory managers to adopt best practices to avoid obsolete inventory and also reduce excessive inventory levels. The research model was helpful in providing a decision making criteria based on the performance metric developed. This research model and performance metric had been validated by analysis of warehouse data and results indicated a shift from two-echelon inventory supply chain to a one-echelon or Just In Time (JIT) based inventory supply chain. The recommendations from the case study were used by a health care organization to reorganize the supply chain resulting in the reduction of excessive inventory.

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The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

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The construction industry is one of the greatest sources of pollution because of the high level of energy consumption during its life cycle. In addition to using energy while constructing a building, several systems also use power while the building is operating, especially the air-conditioning system. Energy consumption for this system is related, among other issues, to external air temperature and the required internal temperature of the building. The facades are elements which present the highest level of ambient heat transfer from the outside to the inside of tall buildings. Thus, the type of facade has an influence on energy consumption during the building life cycle and, consequently, contributes to buildings' CO2 emissions, because these emissions are directly connected to energy consumption. Therefore, the aim is to help develop a methodology for evaluating CO2 emissions generated during the life cycle of office building facades. The results, based on the parameters used in this study, show that facades using structural glazing and uncolored glass emit the most CO2 throughout their life cycle, followed by brick facades covered with compound aluminum panels or ACM (Aluminum Composite Material), facades using structural glazing and reflective glass and brick facades with plaster coating. On the other hand, the typology of facade that emits less CO2 is brickwork and mortar because its thermal barrier is better than structural glazing facade and materials used to produce this facade are better than brickwork and ACM. Finally, an uncertainty analysis was conducted to verify the accuracy of the results attained. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Vortex-induced motion (VIM) is a highly nonlinear dynamic phenomenon. Usual spectral analysis methods, using the Fourier transform, rely on the hypotheses of linear and stationary dynamics. A method to treat nonstationary signals that emerge from nonlinear systems is denoted Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method. The development of an analysis methodology to study the VIM of a monocolumn production, storage, and offloading system using HHT is presented. The purposes of the present methodology are to improve the statistics analysis of VIM. The results showed to be comparable to results obtained from a traditional analysis (mean of the 10% highest peaks) particularly for the motions in the transverse direction, although the difference between the results from the traditional analysis for the motions in the in-line direction showed a difference of around 25%. The results from the HHT analysis are more reliable than the traditional ones, owing to the larger number of points to calculate the statistics characteristics. These results may be used to design risers and mooring lines, as well as to obtain VIM parameters to calibrate numerical predictions. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4003493]

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A new methodology for the synthesis of tunable patch filters is presented. The methodology helps the designer to perform a theoretical analysis of the filter through a coupling matrix that includes the effect of the tuning elements used to tune the filter. This general methodology accounts for any tuning parameter desired and was applied to the design of a tunable dual-mode patch filter with independent control of center frequency and bandwidth (BW). The bandpass filter uses a single triangular resonator with two etched slots that split the fundamental degenerate modes and form the filter passband. Varactor diodes assembled across the slots are used to vary the frequency of each degenerate fundamental mode independently, which is feasible due to the nature of the coupling scheme of the filter. The varactor diode model used in simulations, their assembling, the dc bias configuration, and measured results are presented. The theory results are compared to the simulations and to measurements showing a very good agreement and validating the proposed methodology. The fabricated filter presents an elliptic response with 20% of center frequency tuning range around 3.2 GHz and a fractional BW variation from 4% to 12% with low insertion loss and high power handling with a 1-dB compression point higher than +14.5 dB.

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To boost crop yield, sugarcane growers are using increasing amounts of pesticides to combat insects and weeds. But residues of these compounds can pollute water resources, such as lakes, rivers and aquifers. The present paper reports the results of a study of water samples from the Feijao River, which is the source of drinking water for the city of Sao Carlos, Sao Paulo, Brazil. The samples were evaluated for the presence of four leading pesticides - ametryn, atrazine, diuron and fipronil - used on sugarcane, the dominant culture in the region. The samples were obtained from three points along the river: the headwaters, along the middle course of the river and just before the municipal water intake station. The pesticides were extracted from the water samples by solid-phase extraction (SPE) and then analyzed by liquid chromatography with diode array detection (LC-DAD). The analytical method was validated by traditional methods, obtaining recovery values between 90 and 95%, with precision deviations inferior to 2.56%, correlation coefficients above 0.99 and detection and quantification limits varying from 0.02 to 0.05 mg L-1 and 0.07 to 0.17 mg L-1, respectively. No presence of residues of the pesticides was detected in the samples, considering the detection limits of the method employed.

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Sugarcane bagasse was characterized as a feedstock for the production of ethanol using hydrothermal pretreatment. Reaction temperature and time were varied between 160 and 200A degrees C and 5-20 min, respectively, using a response surface experimental design. The liquid fraction was analyzed for soluble carbohydrates and furan aldehydes. The solid fraction was analyzed for structural carbohydrates and Klason lignin. Pretreatment conditions were evaluated based on enzymatic extraction of glucose and xylose and conversion to ethanol using a simultaneous saccharification and fermentation scheme. SSF experiments were conducted with the washed pretreated biomass. The severity of the pretreatment should be sufficient to drive enzymatic digestion and ethanol yields, however, sugars losses and especially sugar conversion into furans needs to be minimized. As expected, furfural production increased with pretreatment severity and specifically xylose release. However, provided that the severity was kept below a general severity factor of 4.0, production of furfural was below an inhibitory concentration and carbohydrate contents were preserved in the pretreated whole hydrolysate. There were significant interactions between time and temperature for all the responses except cellulose digestion. The models were highly predictive for cellulose digestibility (R (2) = 0.8861) and for ethanol production (R (2) = 0.9581), but less so for xylose extraction. Both cellulose digestion and ethanol production increased with severity, however, high levels of furfural generated under more severe pretreatment conditions favor lower severity pretreatments. The optimal pretreatment condition that gave the highest conversion yield of ethanol, while minimizing furfural production, was judged to be 190A degrees C and 17.2 min. The whole hydrolysate was also converted to ethanol using SSF. To reduce the concentration of inhibitors, the liquid fraction was conditioned prior to fermentation by removing inhibitory chemicals using the fungus Coniochaeta ligniaria.

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Extracorporeal treatments (ECTRs), such as hemodialysis and hemoperfusion, are used in poisoning despite a lack of controlled human trials demonstrating efficacy. To provide uniform recommendations, the EXTRIP group was formed as an international collaboration among recognized experts from nephrology, clinical toxicology, critical care, or pharmacology and supported by over 30 professional societies. For every poison, the clinical benefit of ECTR is weighed against associated complications, alternative therapies, and costs. Rigorous methodology, using the AGREE instrument, was developed and ratified. Methods rely on evidence appraisal and, in the absence of robust studies, on a thorough and transparent process of consensus statements. Twenty-four poisons were chosen according to their frequency, available evidence, and relevance. A systematic literature search was performed in order to retrieve all original publications regardless of language. Data were extracted on a standardized instrument. Quality of the evidence was assessed by GRADE as: High = A, Moderate = B, Low = C, Very Low = D. For every poison, dialyzability was assessed and clinical effect of ECTR summarized. All pertinent documents were submitted to the workgroup with a list of statements for vote (general statement, indications, timing, ECTR choice). A modified Delphi method with two voting rounds was used, between which deliberation was required. Each statement was voted on a Likert scale (1-9) to establish the strength of recommendation. This approach will permit the production of the first important practice guidelines on this topic.

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PURPOSE: To report the results of a Latin American consensus panel regarding the diagnosis and management of primary open-angle glaucoma and to compare these results with those from a similar panel in the United States. DESIGN: A RAND-like (Research and Development) appropriateness methodology was used to assess glaucoma practice in Latin America. METHODS: The 148 polling statements created for the RAND-like analysis in the United States and 10 additional statements specific to glaucoma care in Latin America were presented to a panel of Latin American glaucoma experts. Panelists were polled in private using the RAND-like methodology before and after the panel meeting. RESULTS: Consensus agreement or disagreement among Latin American experts was reached for 51.3% of statements before the meeting and increased to 66.5% in the private, anonymous meeting after polling (79.0% agreement, 21.0% disagreement). Although there was a high degree of concordance (111 of 148 statements; 75%) between the results of this Latin American panel and the United States panel, there were some notable exceptions relating to diagnostic and therapeutic decision making. CONCLUSIONS: This RAND-like consensus methodology provides a perspective of how Latin American glaucoma practitioners view many aspects of glaucoma and compares these results with those obtained using a similar methodology from practitioners in the United States. These findings may be helpful to ophthalmologists providing glaucoma care in Latin America and in other regions of the world. (Am J Ophthalmol 2012;154: 460-465. (C) 2012 by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

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Organizational intelligence can be seen as a function of the viable structure of an organization. With the integration of the Viable System Model and Soft Systems Methodology (systemic approaches of organizational management) focused on the role of the intelligence function, it is possible to elaborate a model of action with a structured methodology to prospect, select, treat and distribute information to the entire organization that improves the efficacy and efficiency of all processes. This combination of methodologies is called Intelligence Systems Methodology (ISM) whose assumptions and dynamics are delimited in this paper. The ISM is composed of two simultaneous activities: the Active Environmental Mapping and the Stimulated Action Cycle. The elaboration of the formal ISM description opens opportunities for applications of the methodology on real situations, offering a new path for this specific issue of systems thinking: the intelligence systems. Knowledge Management Research & Practice (2012) 10, 141-152. doi:10.1057/kmrp.2011.44

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With the increasing emphasis on health and well-being, nutrition aspects need to be incorporated as a dimension of product development. Thus, the production of a high-fibre content snack food from a mixture of corn and flaxseed flours was optimized by response surface methodology. The independent variables considered in this study were: feed moisture, process temperature and flaxseed flour addition, as they were found to significantly impact the resultant product. These variables were studied according to a rotatable composite design matrix (-1.68, -1, 0, 1, 1.68). Response variable was the expansion ratio since it has been highly correlated with acceptability. The optimum corn-flaxseed snack obtained presented a sevenfold increase in dietary fibre, almost 100% increase in protein content compared to the pure corn snack, and yielded an acceptability score of 6.93. This acceptability score was similar to those observed for corn snack brands in the market, indicating the potential commercial use of this new product, which can help to increase the daily consumption of dietary fibre.

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Response surface methodology (RSM), based on a 2(2) full factorial design, evaluated the moisture effects in recovering xylose by diethyloxalate (DEO) hydrolysis. Experiments were carried out in laboratory reactors (10 mL glass ampoules) containing corn stover (0.5 g) properly ground. The ampoules were kept at 160 degrees C for 90 min.(-) Both DEO concentration and corn stover moisture content were statistically significant at 99% confidence level. The maximum xylose recovery by the response surface methodology was achieved employing both DEO concentration and corn stover moisture at near their highest levels area. We amplified this area by using an overlay plot as a graphical optimization using a response of xylose recovery more than 80%. The mathematical statistical model was validated by testing a specific condition in the satisfied overlay plot area. Experimentally, a maximum xylose recovery (81.2%) was achieved by using initial corn stover moisture of 60% and a DEO concentration of 4% w/w. The mathematical statistical model showed that xylose recovery increases during DEO corn stover acid hydrolysis as the corn stover moisture level increases. This observation could be important during the harvesting of corn before it is fully dried in the field. The corn stover moisture was an important variable to improve xylose recovery by DEO acid hydrolysis. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper presents a new parallel methodology for calculating the determinant of matrices of the order n, with computational complexity O(n), using the Gauss-Jordan Elimination Method and Chio's Rule as references. We intend to present our step-by-step methodology using clear mathematical language, where we will demonstrate how to calculate the determinant of a matrix of the order n in an analytical format. We will also present a computational model with one sequential algorithm and one parallel algorithm using a pseudo-code.

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Soils of a large tropical area with differentiated landscapes cannot be treated uniformly for ecological applications. We intend to develop a framework based on physiography that can be used in regional applications. The study region occupies more than 1.1 million km² and is located at the junction of the savanna region of Central Brazil and the Amazon forest. It includes a portion of the high sedimentary Central Brazil plateau and large areas of mostly peneplained crystalline shield on the border of the wide inner-Amazon low sedimentary plain. A first broad subdivision was made into landscape regions followed by a more detailed subdivision into soil regions. Mapping information was extracted from soil survey maps at scales of 1:250000-1:500000. Soil units were integrated within a homogenized legend using a set of selected attributes such as taxonomic term, the texture of the B horizon and the associated vegetation. For each region, a detailed inventory of the soil units with their area distribution was elaborated. Ten landscape regions and twenty-four soil regions were recognized and delineated. Soil cover of a region is normally characterized by a cluster composed of many soil units. Soil diversity is comparable in the landscape and the soil regions. Composition of the soil cover is quantitatively expressed in terms of area extension of the soil units. Such geographic divisions characterized by grouping soil units and their spatial estimates must be used for regional ecological applications.