Forensic intelligence framework. Part II: study of the main generic building blocks and challenges through the examples of illicit drugs and false identity documents monitoring

The development of forensic intelligence relies on the expression of suitable models that better represent the contribution of forensic intelligence in relation to the criminal justice system, policing and security. Such models assist in comparing and evaluating methods and new technologies, provide transparency and foster the development of new applications. Interestingly, strong similarities between two separate projects focusing on specific forensic science areas were recently observed. These observations have led to the induction of a general model (Part I) that could guide the use of any forensic science case data in an intelligence perspective. The present article builds upon this general approach by focusing on decisional and organisational issues. The article investigates the comparison process and evaluation system that lay at the heart of the forensic intelligence framework, advocating scientific decision criteria and a structured but flexible and dynamic architecture. These building blocks are crucial and clearly lay within the expertise of forensic scientists. However, it is only part of the problem. Forensic intelligence includes other blocks with their respective interactions, decision points and tensions (e.g. regarding how to guide detection and how to integrate forensic information with other information). Formalising these blocks identifies many questions and potential answers. Addressing these questions is essential for the progress of the discipline. Such a process requires clarifying the role and place of the forensic scientist within the whole process and their relationship to other stakeholders.

Feasibility and clinical outcomes when using practice guidelines for evaluation of fever in returning travelers and migrants : a validation study.

BACKGROUND: Practice guidelines for examining febrile patients presenting upon returning from the tropics were developed to assist primary care physicians in decision making. Because of the low level of evidence available in this field, there was a need to validate them and assess their feasibility in the context they have been designed for. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of the study were to (1) evaluate physicians' adherence to recommendations; (2) investigate reasons for non-adherence; and (3) ensure good clinical outcome of patients, the ultimate goal being to improve the quality of the guidelines, in particular to tailor them for the needs of the target audience and population. METHODS: Physicians consulting the guidelines on the Internet (www.fevertravel.ch) were invited to participate in the study. Navigation through the decision chart was automatically recorded, including diagnostic tests performed, initial and final diagnoses, and clinical outcomes. The reasons for non-adherence were investigated and qualitative feedback was collected. RESULTS: A total of 539 physician/patient pairs were included in this study. Full adherence to guidelines was observed in 29% of the cases. Figure-specific adherence rate was 54.8%. The main reasons for non-adherence were as follows: no repetition of malaria tests (111/352) and no presumptive antibiotic treatment for febrile diarrhea (64/153) or abdominal pain without leukocytosis (46/101). Overall, 20% of diversions from guidelines were considered reasonable because there was an alternative presumptive diagnosis or the symptoms were mild, which means that the corrected adherence rate per case was 40.6% and corrected adherence per figure was 61.7%. No death was recorded and all complications could be attributed to the underlying illness rather than to adherence to guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines proved to be feasible, useful, and leading to good clinical outcomes. Almost one third of physicians strictly adhered to the guidelines. Other physicians used the guidelines not to forget specific diagnoses but finally diverged from the proposed attitudes. These diversions should be scrutinized for further refinement of the guidelines to better fit to physician and patient needs.

Allergo-immunologie. 2. Faut-il se méfier des agents biologiques [Allergy-immunology. Do we have to be afraid of biological agents?].

Biologicals are now fully part of our daily therapeutic strategies. However, even if their high specificity seems to induce less risk compared to older or classical immunosuppressive drugs, there are not harmless especially regarding infectious but also immunological and allergic issues. Recent attempts to better characterize the different types of reactions to biologicals should be reported, allowing us better understanding of the risk to maintain these therapies or defining how to improve the methods to use them.

Evaluation of Different Methods to Calculate Heavy-Truck VMT, Final Report, December 2004

Reliable estimates of heavy-truck volumes are important in a number of transportation applications. Estimates of truck volumes are necessary for pavement design and pavement management. Truck volumes are important in traffic safety. The number of trucks on the road also influences roadway capacity and traffic operations. Additionally, heavy vehicles pollute at higher rates than passenger vehicles. Consequently, reliable estimates of heavy-truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are important in creating accurate inventories of on-road emissions. This research evaluated three different methods to calculate heavy-truck annual average daily traffic (AADT) which can subsequently be used to estimate vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Traffic data from continuous count stations provided by the Iowa DOT were used to estimate AADT for two different truck groups (single-unit and multi-unit) using the three methods. The first method developed monthly and daily expansion factors for each truck group. The second and third methods created general expansion factors for all vehicles. Accuracy of the three methods was compared using n-fold cross-validation. In n-fold cross-validation, data are split into n partitions, and data from the nth partition are used to validate the remaining data. A comparison of the accuracy of the three methods was made using the estimates of prediction error obtained from cross-validation. The prediction error was determined by averaging the squared error between the estimated AADT and the actual AADT. Overall, the prediction error was the lowest for the method that developed expansion factors separately for the different truck groups for both single- and multi-unit trucks. This indicates that use of expansion factors specific to heavy trucks results in better estimates of AADT, and, subsequently, VMT, than using aggregate expansion factors and applying a percentage of trucks. Monthly, daily, and weekly traffic patterns were also evaluated. Significant variation exists in the temporal and seasonal patterns of heavy trucks as compared to passenger vehicles. This suggests that the use of aggregate expansion factors fails to adequately describe truck travel patterns.

Bloodstream and endovascular infections due to Abiotrophia defectiva and Granulicatella species.

BACKGROUND: Abiotrophia and Granulicatella species, previously referred to as nutritionally variant streptococci (NVS), are significant causative agents of endocarditis and bacteraemia. In this study, we reviewed the clinical manifestations of infections due to A. defectiva and Granulicatella species that occurred at our institution between 1998 and 2004. METHODS: The analysis included all strains of NVS that were isolated from blood cultures or vascular graft specimens. All strains were identified by 16S rRNA sequence analysis. Patients' medical charts were reviewed for each case of infection. RESULTS: Eleven strains of NVS were isolated during the 6-year period. Identification of the strains by 16S rRNA showed 2 genogroups: Abiotrophia defectiva (3) and Granulicatella adiacens (6) or "para-adiacens" (2). The three A. defectiva strains were isolated from immunocompetent patients with endovascular infections, whereas 7 of 8 Granulicatella spp. strains were isolated from immunosuppressed patients, mainly febrile neutropenic patients. We report the first case of "G. para-adiacens" bacteraemia in the setting of febrile neutropenia. CONCLUSION: We propose that Granulicatella spp. be considered as a possible agent of bacteraemia in neutropenic patients.

Investgiation into Improved Pavement Curing Materials and Techniques: Part 1 - Phases I and II, April 2002

Concrete curing is closely related to cement hydration, microstructure development, and concrete performance. Application of a liquid membrane-forming curing compound is among the most widely used curing methods for concrete pavements and bridge decks. Curing compounds are economical, easy to apply, and maintenance free. However, limited research has been done to investigate the effectiveness of different curing compounds and their application technologies. No reliable standard testing method is available to evaluate the effectiveness of curing, especially of the field concrete curing. The present research investigates the effects of curing compound materials and application technologies on concrete properties, especially on the properties of surface concrete. This report presents a literature review of curing technology, with an emphasis on curing compounds, and the experimental results from the first part of this research—lab investigation. In the lab investigation, three curing compounds were selected and applied to mortar specimens at three different times after casting. Two application methods, single- and double-layer applications, were employed. Moisture content, conductivity, sorptivity, and degree of hydration were measured at different depths of the specimens. Flexural and compressive strength of the specimens were also tested. Statistical analysis was conducted to examine the relationships between these material properties. The research results indicate that application of a curing compound significantly increased moisture content and degree of cement hydration and reduced sorptivity of the near-surface-area concrete. For given concrete materials and mix proportions, optimal application time of curing compounds depended primarily upon the weather condition. If a sufficient amount of a high-efficiency-index curing compound was uniformly applied, no double-layer application was necessary. Among all test methods applied, the sorptivity test is the most sensitive one to provide good indication for the subtle changes in microstructure of the near-surface-area concrete caused by different curing materials and application methods. Sorptivity measurement has a close relation with moisture content and degree of hydration. The research results have established a baseline for and provided insight into the further development of testing procedures for evaluation of curing compounds in field. Recommendations are provided for further field study.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

Delay of extubation in neonates and children after cardiac surgery: impact of ventilator-associated pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to determine the delay of extubation attributable to ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in comparison to other complications and complexity of surgery after repair of congenital heart lesions in neonates and children. METHODS: Cohort study in a pediatric intensive care unit of a tertiary referral center. All patients who had cardiac operations during a 22-month period and who survived surgery were eligible (n = 272, median age 1.3 years). Primary outcome was time to successful extubation. Primary variable of interest was VAP Surgical procedures were classified according to complexity. Cox proportional hazards models were calculated to adjust for confounding. Potential confounders comprised other known risk factors for delayed extubation. RESULTS: Median time to extubation was 3 days. VAP occurred in 26 patients (9.6%). The rate of VAP was not associated with complexity of surgery (P = 0.22), or cardiopulmonary bypass (P = 0.23). The adjusted analysis revealed as further factors associated with delayed extubation: other respiratory complications (n = 28, chylothorax, airway stenosis, diaphragm paresis), prolonged inotropic support (n = 48, 17.6%), and the need for secondary surgery (n = 51, 18.8%; e.g., re-operation, secondary closure of thorax). Older age promoted early extubation. The median delay of extubation attributable to VAP was 3.7 days (hazards ratio HR = 0.29, 95% CI 0.18-0.49), exceeding the effect size of secondary surgery (HR = 0.48) and other respiratory complications (HR = 0.50). CONCLUSION: VAP accounts for a major delay of extubation in pediatric cardiac surgery.

Epidemiology and mortality of glacier crevasse accidents.

INTRODUCTION: Crevasse accidents can lead to severe injuries and even death, but little is known about their epidemiology and mortality. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed helicopter-based emergency services rescue missions for crevasse victims in Switzerland between 2000 and 2010. Demographic and epidemiological data were collected. Injury severity was graded according to the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA) score. RESULTS: A total of 415 victims of crevasse falls were included in the study. The mean victim age was 40 years (SD 13) (range 6-75), 84% were male, and 67% were foreigners. The absolute number of victims was much higher during the months of March, April, July, and August, amounting to 73% of all victims; 77% of victims were practicing mountaineering or ski touring. The mean depth of fall was 16.5m (SD 9.0) (range 1-35). Overall on-site mortality was 11%, and it was higher during the ski season than the ski offseason (14% vs. 7%; P=0.01), for foreigners (14% vs. 5%; P=0.01), and with higher mean depth of fall (22 vs. 15m; P=0.01). The NACA score was ≥4 for 22% of the victims, indicating potential or overt vital threatening injuries, but 24% of the victims were uninjured (NACA 0). Multivariable analyses revealed that depth of the fall, summer season, and snowshoeing were associated with higher NACA scores, whereas depth of the fall, snowshoeing, and foreigners but not season were associated with higher risk of death. CONCLUSION: The clinical spectrum of injuries sustained by the 415 patients in this study ranged from benign to life-threatening. Death occurred in 11% of victims and seems to be determined primarily by the depth of the fall.

Outcome after surgical treatment of symptomatic delayed unions and nonunions of midshaft clavicle fractures

Introduction: Nonoperative treatment of displaced midshaft clavicle fractures is associated with higher nonunion rate than previously reported. Moreover, its occurrence can compromise shoulder function. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcome of surgical treatment of symptomatic clavicle midshaft delayed and nonunion. Methods: Between 1999 and 2008, 19 clavicle delayed unions and nonunions were treated by open reduction and reconstructive plate fixation with augmentation by autologous bone graft. Iliac bone graft was used in 15 atrophic cases, and graft from the callus was used in 4 hypertrophic nonunions. There were 14 men and 5 women, with an average age of 41 years (range, 19 to 59 years) at time of surgery. No patient had undergone a previous surgery and all complained of shoulder pain. Delayed unions and nonunions were defined as non-healing after 3 and 6 months respectively. The mean time to surgery was 8 months (range, 4 to 23 months). All patients were pre and postoperatively clinically evaluated and imaged with standard radiographs until complete healing. Results: After a mean time of 3 months (range, 2 to 7 months) all fractures were completely healed. All patients reported full range of motion at time of last follow-up. Nine patients (47%) reported slight shoulder pain but all returned to their previous professional activities after a mean time of 3 months (range, 1 to 8 months). We reported 12 (63%) minor complications. There were 6 (32%) plate-related discomforts which resolved after hardware removal, two (11%) scar numbness, two (11%) adhesive capsulitis with spontaneous complete recovery, and two (11%) AC-joint pain treated successfully with local corticosteroids injection. Conclusion: Surgical treatment of delayed unions and nonunions of midshaft clavicle fractures yields satisfactory results and a high union rate. However, 50% of the patients may still complain of slight residual shoulder pain.

Acute coronary syndromes in young patients: presentation, treatment and outcome.

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndromes (ACS) in very young patients have been poorly described. We therefore evaluate ACS in patients aged 35 years and younger. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 76 hospitals treating ACS in Switzerland enrolled 28,778 patients with ACS between January 1, 1997, and October 1, 2008. ACS definition included ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), and unstable angina (UA). RESULTS: 195 patients (0.7%) were 35 years old or younger. Compared to patients>35 years, these patients were more likely to present with chest pain (91.6% vs. 83.7%; P=0.003) and less likely to have heart failure (Killip class II to IV in 5.2% vs. 23.0%; P<0.001). STEMI was more prevalent in younger than in older patients (73.1% vs. 58.3%; P<0.001). Smoking, family history of CAD, and/or dyslipidemia were important cardiovascular risk factors in young patients (prevalence 77.2%, 55.0%, and 44.0%). The prevalence of overweight among young patients with ACS was high (57.8%). Cocaine abuse was associated with ACS in some young patients. Compared to older patients, young patients were more likely to receive early percutaneous coronary interventions and had better outcome with fewer major adverse cardiac events. CONCLUSIONS: Young patients with ACS differed from older patients in that the younger often presented with STEMI, received early aggressive treatment, and had favourable outcomes. Primary prevention of smoking, dyslipidemia and overweight should be more aggressively promoted in adolescence.

Intravenous insulin treatment in acute stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

INTRODUCTION: Poststroke hyperglycemia has been associated with unfavorable outcome. Several trials investigated the use of intravenous insulin to control hyperglycemia in acute stroke. This meta-analysis summarizes all available evidence from randomized controlled trials in order to assess its efficacy and safety. METHODS: We searched PubMed until 15/02/2013 for randomized clinical trials using the following search items: 'intravenous insulin' or 'hyperglycemia', and 'stroke'. Eligible studies had to be randomized controlled trials of intravenous insulin in hyperglycemic patients with acute stroke. Analysis was performed on intention-to-treat basis using the Peto fixed-effects method. The efficacy outcomes were mortality and favorable functional outcome. The safety outcomes were mortality, any hypoglycemia (symptomatic or asymptomatic), and symptomatic hypoglycemia. RESULTS: Among 462 potentially eligible articles, nine studies with 1491 patients were included in the meta-analysis. There was no statistically significant difference in mortality between patients who were treated with intravenous insulin and controls (odds ratio: 1.16, 95% confidence interval: 0.89-1.49). Similarly, the rate of favorable functional outcome was not statistically different (odds ratio: 1.01, 95% confidence interval: 0.81-1.26). The rates of any hypoglycemia (odds ratio: 8.19, 95% confidence interval: 5.60-11.98) and of symptomatic hypoglycemia (odds ratio: 6.15, 95% confidence interval: 1.88-20.15) were higher in patients treated with intravenous insulin. There was no heterogeneity across the included trials in any of the outcomes studied. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials does not support the use of intravenous insulin in hyperglycemic stroke patients to improve mortality or functional outcome. The risk of hypoglycemia is increased, however.

Influence of a lifestyle intervention in preschool children on physiological and psychological parameters (Ballabeina): study design of a cluster randomized controlled trial.

Childhood obesity and physical inactivity are increasing dramatically worldwide. Children of low socioeconomic status and/or children of migrant background are especially at risk. In general, the overall effectiveness of school-based programs on health-related outcomes has been disappointing. A special gap exists for younger children and in high risk groups. This paper describes the rationale, design, curriculum, and evaluation of a multicenter preschool randomized intervention study conducted in areas with a high migrant population in two out of 26 Swiss cantons. Twenty preschool classes in the German (canton St. Gallen) and another 20 in the French (canton Vaud) part of Switzerland were separately selected and randomized to an intervention and a control arm by the use of opaque envelopes. The multidisciplinary lifestyle intervention aimed to increase physical activity and sleep duration, to reinforce healthy nutrition and eating behaviour, and to reduce media use. According to the ecological model, it included children, their parents and the teachers. The regular teachers performed the majority of the intervention and were supported by a local health promoter. The intervention included physical activity lessons, adaptation of the built infrastructure; promotion of regional extracurricular physical activity; playful lessons about nutrition, media use and sleep, funny homework cards and information materials for teachers and parents. It lasted one school year. Baseline and post-intervention evaluations were performed in both arms. Primary outcome measures included BMI and aerobic fitness (20 m shuttle run test). Secondary outcomes included total (skinfolds, bioelectrical impedance) and central (waist circumference) body fat, motor abilities (obstacle course, static and dynamic balance), physical activity and sleep duration (accelerometry and questionnaires), nutritional behaviour and food intake, media use, quality of life and signs of hyperactivity (questionnaires), attention and spatial working memory ability (two validated tests). Researchers were blinded to group allocation. The purpose of this paper is to outline the design of a school-based multicenter cluster randomized, controlled trial aiming to reduce body mass index and to increase aerobic fitness in preschool children in culturally different parts of Switzerland with a high migrant population. Trial Registration: (clinicaltrials.gov) NCT00674544.

La dénervation rénale unilatérale et le système kallikréine-bradykinine rénal chez le rat [Unilateral renal denervation and the renal kallikrein-bradykinin system in the rat].

AIM: The antihypertensive effect of renal denervation in hypertensive patients is partially explained by increased tubular natriuresis. To study the possible contribution of the kallikrein-kinin system (KKS) to this natriuretic effect in rats, we measured kallikrein activity (KA) and bradykinin concentrations (BK) in plasma and tissues. METHODS: To measure KA, we adapted and validated an enzymatic assay that cleaves para-nitroaniline (pNA) from the tripeptide H-D-Pro-Phe-Arg-pNA. The coefficients of variation (CV) within- and between-assays were less than 8% for plasma and tissue KA (plasma n=6 and 13; tissue n=4). Linear results for serially diluted samples confirmed the assay specificity. Tissue BK determinations were based on an established assay for plasma BK: tissue was homogenized and kinins extracted in ethanol, and BK was isolated by high-performance (HPLC) liquid chromatography and quantitated by radioimmunassay. Within- and between-assay CV for plasma BK were 18% (n=8 and n=35, respectively) and for BK in various tissues less than 16% (n=5-8). RESULTS: In male Wistar rats (n=3), plasma BK was 8.2±6.6 fmol/mL (mean±SD), and tissue BK (fmol/g) in 14 tested organs varied between brain (14±3) and submaxillary gland (521±315). Six days after left-sided unilateral renal denervation, left renal tissue BK (89±9) was not different from right renal BK (75±23). Similarly, KA was comparable in the two kidneys (left 18.0±1.5, right 15.8±1.4μkat/g). CONCLUSION: Any possible effect of unilateral renal denervation on the kidney's KKS would have to be bilateral.

Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.