Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Décrets de Burchard.

Acquis le 3 août 1824 de M. de Bure, libraire, suite à la vente Chardin, n° 462, pour un prix non précisé; cf. B.n.F., département des Manuscrits, Archives Modernes 492ter, registre des acquisitions du département des Manuscrits 1821-1830, f. 142-143 "Burcardi Wormaciensis episcopi decreta, in fol. ms. sur vélin", et barré "belle et riche reliure, v. b. 10e siècle"; — ex-libris "Liber Cornely Duyn Aëmstelredamensis" (1); — cathédrale de Fréjus, cf. ex-libris du XIVe s. "Est ecclesie Forojuliensis" (1 et 259v); Delisle, Cab. des mss., II, 367.

Space-time relatedness and Hamilton's rule for long-lasting behaviors in viscous populations.

Genes affect not only the behavior and fitness of their carriers but also that of other individuals. According to Hamilton's rule, whether a mutant gene will spread in the gene pool depends on the effects of its carrier on the fitness of all individuals in the population, each weighted by its relatedness to the carrier. However, social behaviors may affect not only recipients living in the generation of the actor but also individuals living in subsequent generations. In this note, I evaluate space-time relatedness coefficients for localized dispersal. These relatedness coefficients weight the selection pressures on long-lasting behaviors, which stem from a multigenerational gap between phenotypic expression by actors and the resulting environmental feedback on the fitness of recipients. Explicit values of space-time relatedness coefficients reveal that they can be surprisingly large for typical dispersal rates, even for hundreds of generations in the future.

Patients' and physicians' preferences for type 2 diabetes mellitus treatments in Spain and Portugal: a discrete choice experiment.

OBJECTIVE To assess Spanish and Portuguese patients' and physicians' preferences regarding type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) treatments and the monthly willingness to pay (WTP) to gain benefits or avoid side effects. METHODS An observational, multicenter, exploratory study focused on routine clinical practice in Spain and Portugal. Physicians were recruited from multiple hospitals and outpatient clinics, while patients were recruited from eleven centers operating in the public health care system in different autonomous communities in Spain and Portugal. Preferences were measured via a discrete choice experiment by rating multiple T2DM medication attributes. Data were analyzed using the conditional logit model. RESULTS Three-hundred and thirty (n=330) patients (49.7% female; mean age 62.4 [SD: 10.3] years, mean T2DM duration 13.9 [8.2] years, mean body mass index 32.5 [6.8] kg/m(2), 41.8% received oral + injected medication, 40.3% received oral, and 17.6% injected treatments) and 221 physicians from Spain and Portugal (62% female; mean age 41.9 [SD: 10.5] years, 33.5% endocrinologists, 66.5% primary-care doctors) participated. Patients valued avoiding a gain in bodyweight of 3 kg/6 months (WTP: €68.14 [95% confidence interval: 54.55-85.08]) the most, followed by avoiding one hypoglycemic event/month (WTP: €54.80 [23.29-82.26]). Physicians valued avoiding one hypoglycemia/week (WTP: €287.18 [95% confidence interval: 160.31-1,387.21]) the most, followed by avoiding a 3 kg/6 months gain in bodyweight and decreasing cardiovascular risk (WTP: €166.87 [88.63-843.09] and €154.30 [98.13-434.19], respectively). Physicians and patients were willing to pay €125.92 (73.30-622.75) and €24.28 (18.41-30.31), respectively, to avoid a 1% increase in glycated hemoglobin, and €143.30 (73.39-543.62) and €42.74 (23.89-61.77) to avoid nausea. CONCLUSION Both patients and physicians in Spain and Portugal are willing to pay for the health benefits associated with improved diabetes treatment, the most important being to avoid hypoglycemia and gaining weight. Decreased cardiovascular risk and weight reduction became the third most valued attributes for physicians and patients, respectively.

Intravital microscopy reveals endothelial dysfunction in resistance arterioles in Angiotensin II-induced hypertension.

It is known that hypertension is associated with endothelial dysfunction and that Angiotensin II (Ang II) is a key player in the pathogenesis of hypertension. We aimed to elucidate whether endothelial dysfunction is a specific feature of Ang II-mediated hypertension or a common finding of hypertension, independently of underlying etiology. We studied endothelial-dependent vasorelaxation in precapillary resistance arterioles and in various large-caliber conductance arteries in wild-type mice with Ang II-dependent hypertension (2-kidney 1-clip (2K1C) model) or Ang II-independent (volume overload) hypertension (1-kidney 1-clip model (1K1C)). Normotensive sham mice were used as controls. Aortic mechanical properties were also evaluated. Intravital microscopy of precapillary arterioles revealed a significantly impaired endothelium-dependent vasorelaxation in 2K1C mice compared with sham mice, as quantified by the ratio of acetylcholine (ACh)-induced over S-nitroso-N-acetyl-D,L-penicillamine (SNAP)-induced vasorelaxation (2K1C: 0.49±0.12 vs. sham: 0.87±0.11, P=0.018). In contrast, the ACh/SNAP ratio in volume-overload hypertension 1K1C mice was not significantly different from sham mice, indicating no specific endothelial dysfunction (1K1C: 0.77±0.27 vs. sham: 0.87±0.11, P=0.138). Mechanical aortic wall properties and endothelium-dependent vasorelaxation, assessed ex vivo in rings of large-caliber conductance (abdominal and thoracic aorta, carotid and femoral arteries), were not different between 2K1C, 1K1C and sham mice. Endothelial dysfunction is an early feature of Ang II- but not volume-overload-mediated hypertension. This occurs exclusively at the level of precapillary arterioles and not in conduit arteries. Our findings, if confirmed in clinical studies, will provide a better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms of hypertension.

Changes in Body Composition in Anorexia Nervosa: Predictors of Recovery and Treatment Outcome.

The restoration of body composition (BC) parameters is considered to be one of the most important goals in the treatment of patients with anorexia nervosa (AN). However, little is known about differences between AN diagnostic subtypes [restricting (AN-R) and binge/purging (AN-BP)] and weekly changes in BC during refeeding treatment. Therefore, the main objectives of our study were twofold: 1) to assess the changes in BC throughout nutritional treatment in an AN sample and 2) to analyze predictors of BC changes during treatment, as well as predictors of treatment outcome. The whole sample comprised 261 participants [118 adult females with AN (70 AN-R vs. 48 AN-BP), and 143 healthy controls]. BC was measured weekly during 15 weeks of day-hospital treatment using bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA). Assessment measures also included the Eating Disorders Inventory-2, as well as a number of other clinical indices. Overall, the results showed that AN-R and AN-BP patients statistically differed in all BC measures at admission. However, no significant time×group interaction was found for almost all BC parameters. Significant time×group interactions were only found for basal metabolic rate (p = .041) and body mass index (BMI) (p = .035). Multiple regression models showed that the best predictors of pre-post changes in BC parameters (namely fat-free mass, muscular mass, total body water and BMI) were the baseline values of BC parameters. Stepwise predictive logistic regressions showed that only BMI and age were significantly associated with outcome, but not with the percentage of body fat. In conclusion, these data suggest that although AN patients tended to restore all BC parameters during nutritional treatment, only AN-BP patients obtained the same fat mass values as healthy controls. Put succinctly, the best predictors of changes in BC were baseline BC values, which did not, however, seem to influence treatment outcome.

A genomewide association study of smoking relapse in four European population-based samples.

OBJECTIVES: Genomewide association studies (GWAS) have identified clear evidence of genetic markers for nicotine dependence. Other smoking phenotypes have been tested, but the results are less consistent. The tendency to relapse versus the ability to maintain long-term abstinence has received little attention in genetic studies; thus, our aim was to provide a better biological understanding of this phenotype through the identification of genetic loci associated with smoking relapse. METHODS: We carried out a GWAS on data from two European population-based collections, including a total of 835 cases (relapsers) and 990 controls (abstainers). Top-ranked findings from the discovery phase were tested for replication in two additional independent European population-based cohorts. RESULTS: Of the seven top markers from the discovery phase, none were consistently associated with smoking relapse across all samples and none reached genomewide significance. A single-nucleotide polymorphism rs1008509, within the Xylosyltransferase II (XYLT2) gene, was suggestively associated with smoking relapse in the discovery phase (β=-0.504; P=5.6E-06) and in the first replication sample (ALSPAC) (β=-0.27; P=0.004; n=1932), but not in the second sample (KORA) (β=0.19; P=0.138; n=912). We failed to identify an association between loci implicated previously in other smoking phenotypes and smoking relapse. CONCLUSION: Although no genomewide significant findings emerged from this study, we found that loci implicated in other smoking phenotypes were not associated with smoking relapse, which suggests that the neurobiology of smoking relapse and long-term abstinence may be distinct from biological mechanisms implicated in the development of nicotine dependence.

MHC class II/ESO tetramer-based generation of in vitro primed anti-tumor T-helper lines for adoptive cell therapy of cancer.

Generation of tumor-antigen specific CD4(+) T-helper (T(H)) lines through in vitro priming is of interest for adoptive cell therapy of cancer, but the development of this approach has been limited by the lack of appropriate tools to identify and isolate low frequency tumor antigen-specific CD4(+) T cells. Here, we have used recently developed MHC class II/peptide tetramers incorporating an immunodominant peptide from NY-ESO-1 (ESO), a tumor antigen frequently expressed in different human solid and hematologic cancers, to implement an in vitro priming platform allowing the generation of ESO-specific T(H) lines. We isolated phenotypically defined CD4(+) T-cell subpopulations from circulating lymphocytes of DR52b(+) healthy donors by flow cytometry cell sorting and stimulated them in vitro with peptide ESO(119-143), autologous APC and IL-2. We assessed the frequency of ESO-specific cells in the cultures by staining with DR52b/ESO(119-143) tetramers (ESO-tetramers) and TCR repertoire of ESO-tetramer(+) cells by co-staining with TCR variable β chain (BV) specific antibodies. We isolated ESO-tetramer(+) cells by flow cytometry cell sorting and expanded them with PHA, APC and IL-2 to generate ESO-specific T(H) lines. We characterized the lines for antigen recognition, by stimulation with ESO peptide or recombinant protein, cytokine production, by intracellular staining using specific antibodies, and alloreactivity, by stimulation with allo-APC. Using this approach, we could consistently generate ESO-tetramer(+) T(H) lines from conventional CD4(+)CD25(-) naïve and central memory populations, but not from effector memory populations or CD4(+)CD25(+) Treg. In vitro primed T(H) lines recognized ESO with affinities comparable to ESO-tetramer(+) cells from patients immunized with an ESO vaccine and used a similar TCR repertoire. In this study, using MHC class II/ESO tetramers, we have implemented an in vitro priming platform allowing the generation of ESO-monospecific polyclonal T(H) lines from non-immune individuals. This is an approach that is of potential interest for adoptive cell therapy of patients bearing ESO-expressing cancers.

Characterization of novel hypertrophic signaling pathways activated by the AKAP-Lbc signaling complex in cardiomyocytes

RÉSUMÉL'hypertrophie cardiaque représente un mécanisme d'adaptation du myocarde en réponse à différents stress. Sur le long terme, l'hypertrophie cardiaque peut évoluer vers l'insuffisance cardiaque, l'une des principales causes de morbidité et de mortalité dans les pays industrialisés, pour cette raison, la communauté scientifique est très intéressée à élucider les voies de signalisation qui régulent ce phénomène pathologique dans le coeur.Notre laboratoire a montré que AKAP-Lbc, une protéine d'ancrage de la protéine kinase A (AKAPs), est principalement exprimée dans le coeur et peut réguler des processus importants tels que l'hypertrophie des cardiomyocytes.AKAP-Lbc fonctionne comme un facteur d'échange de nucléotides guanine (GEF) pour la petite Rho-GTPase RhoA. Cette fonction est activée par différents récepteurs qui activent son domaine Rho-GEF. Des études récentes ont démontré que AKAP-Lbc est impliquée dans la réponse hypertrophique des cardiomyocytes suite à l'activation des récepteurs α1-adrénergiques. Le but général de ce travail de thèse est la caractérisation de la voie de signalisation hypertrophique activée par AKAP-Lbc dans les cardiomyocytes.Mes travaux montrent que AKAP-Lbc organise un complexe macromoléculaire, comprenant les protéines kinases PKN, MLTK, MKK3 et p38 et active la protéine kinase p38 en réponse à l'activation des récepteurs α1-adrénergiques.Nos résultats indiquent que cette voie de signalisation au cours de la réponse hypertrophique active le facteur de transcription GATA4 et la protéine Hsp27.GATA4 est un important facteur de transcription qui régule la transcription de plusieurs gènes au cours de la réponse hypertrophique, alors que Hsp27 est une protéine chaperonne qui interagit avec le cytosquelette des cardiomyocytes et les protége contre le stress hypertrophique.Pris ensembles, ces études contribuent à comprendre comment le complexe de signalisation formé par AKAP-Lbc régule l'hypertrophie dans les cardiomyocytes. Au-delà de leur intérêt au niveau biochimique, ces travaux pourraient aussi contribuer à la compréhension du phénomène de l'hypertrophie dans le coeur.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011.

Background: Mortality figures become available after some years.Materials and methods: Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of deaths in 2011 from all cancers and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of deaths. Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates.Results: The predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 was 1 281 436, with standardized rates of 143/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and leukemias, plus male lung cancer, will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. Female lung cancer rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of cancer death, as now in Poland. The increasing pancreatic cancer trends in women observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off.Conclusions: Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of cancer deaths are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist.

Dose-dependent influence of didanosine on immune recovery in HIV-infected patients treated with tenofovir.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) containing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and didanosine (ddI) has been associated with poor immune recovery despite virologic success. This effect might be related to ddI toxicity since ddI exposure is substantially increased by TDF. OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether immune recovery during ART with TDF and ddI is ddI-dose dependent. DESIGN AND METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal analysis of immune recovery measured by the CD4 T-cell slope in 614 patients treated with ART containing TDF with or without ddI. Patients were stratified according to the tertiles of their weight-adjusted ddI dose: low dose (< 3.3 mg/kg), intermediate dose (3.3-4.1 mg/kg) and high dose (> 4.1 mg/kg). Cofactors modifying the degree of immune recovery after starting TDF-containing ART were identified by univariable and multivariable linear regression analyses. RESULTS: CD4 T-cell slopes were comparable between patients treated with TDF and a weight-adjusted ddI-dose of < 4.1 mg/kg per day (n = 143) versus TDF-without-ddI (n = 393). In the multivariable model the slopes differed by -13 CD4 T cells/mul per year [95% confidence interval (CI), -42 to 17; P = 0.40]. In contrast, patients treated with TDF and a higher ddI dose (> 4.1 mg/kg per day, n = 78) experienced a significantly impaired immune recovery (-47 CD4 T cells/microl per year; 95% CI, -82 to -12; P = 0.009). The virologic response was comparable between the different treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: Immune recovery is impaired, when high doses of ddI (> 4.1 mg/kg) are given in combination with TDF. If the dose of ddI is adjusted to less than 4.1 mg/kg per day, immune recovery is similar to other TDF-containing ART regimen.

Footnotes November/December 2002, Vol.26, no.11/12

Monthly newsletter for the State Library of Iowa.

Canakinumab relieves symptoms of acute flares and improves health-related quality of life in patients with difficult-to-treat Gouty Arthritis by suppressing inflammation: results of a randomized, dose-ranging study.

INTRODUCTION: We report the impact of canakinumab, a fully human anti-interleukin-1β monoclonal antibody, on inflammation and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with difficult-to-treat Gouty Arthritis. METHODS: In this eight-week, single-blind, double-dummy, dose-ranging study, patients with acute Gouty Arthritis flares who were unresponsive or intolerant to--or had contraindications for--non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and/or colchicine were randomized to receive a single subcutaneous dose of canakinumab (10, 25, 50, 90, or 150 mg) (N = 143) or an intramuscular dose of triamcinolone acetonide 40 mg (N = 57). Patients assessed pain using a Likert scale, physicians assessed clinical signs of joint inflammation, and HRQoL was measured using the 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) (acute version). RESULTS: At baseline, 98% of patients were suffering from moderate-to-extreme pain. The percentage of patients with no or mild pain was numerically greater in most canakinumab groups compared with triamcinolone acetonide from 24 to 72 hours post-dose; the difference was statistically significant for canakinumab 150 mg at these time points (P < 0.05). Treatment with canakinumab 150 mg was associated with statistically significant lower Likert scores for tenderness (odds ratio (OR), 3.2; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.27 to 7.89; P = 0.014) and swelling (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.09 to 6.50, P = 0.032) at 72 hours compared with triamcinolone acetonide. Median C-reactive protein and serum amyloid A levels were normalized by seven days post-dose in most canakinumab groups, but remained elevated in the triamcinolone acetonide group. Improvements in physical health were observed at seven days post-dose in all treatment groups; increases in scores were highest for canakinumab 150 mg. In this group, the mean SF-36 physical component summary score increased by 12.0 points from baseline to 48.3 at seven days post-dose. SF-36 scores for physical functioning and bodily pain for the canakinumab 150 mg group approached those for the US general population by seven days post-dose and reached norm values by eight weeks post-dose. CONCLUSIONS: Canakinumab 150 mg provided significantly greater and more rapid reduction in pain and signs and symptoms of inflammation compared with triamcinolone acetonide 40 mg. Improvements in HRQoL were seen in both treatment groups with a faster onset with canakinumab 150 mg compared with triamcinolone acetonide 40 mg. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00798369.