An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

A castor oil-containing dental luting agent: effects of cyclic loading and storage time on flexural strength

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Water use of Juniperus virginiana trees encroached into mesic prairies in Oklahoma, USA

Juniperus virginiana (eastern redcedar) is encroaching into mesic prairies of the southern Great Plains, USA, and is altering the hydrologic cycle. We used the thermal dissipation technique to quantify daily water use of J. virginiana into a mesic prairie by measuring 19 trees of different sizes from different density stands located in north-central Oklahoma during 2011. We took the additional step to calibrate our measurements by comparing thermal dissipation technique estimates to volumetric water use for a subset of trees. Except for days with maximum air temperature below -3 degrees C, J. virginiana trees used water year round, reached a peak in late May, and exhibited reduced water use in summer when soil water availability was low. Overall daily average water use was 24 l (+/- 21.81 s.d.) per tree. Trees in low density stands used more water than trees with similar diameters from denser stands. However, there was no difference in water use between trees in different density stands when expressed on a canopy area basis. Approximately 50% of variation in water use that remained after accounting for the factors site, tree, and day was explained using a physiologically-based model that included daily potential evapotranspiration, maximum vapour pressure deficit, maximum temperature, solar radiation, and soil water storage between 0 and 10 cm. Our model suggested that a J. virginiana woodland with a closed canopy is capable of transpiring almost all precipitation reaching the soil in years with normal precipitation, indicating the potential for encroachment to reduce water yield for streamflow and groundwater recharge. Copyright (C) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variation of soil and water volumes in riparian jungle soils of Brazil

The objective of this work is to study the relation between humidity, density, porosity and shrinkage of the floodplain soil and riparian vegetation and their ability to store water. For this purpose, two locations for every type of soils were evaluated. Both were placed at the Agronomy University (Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas) in São Manuel, State of São Paulo, Brazil. The floodplain soil was vegetated with Southern Cattail (Typha domingensis). In both places, soil samples were collected from several depths: 0, 30, 60 and 100 cm. Results show that lower soil density values (0.15 g/cm3) with organic texture and high porosities values (up to 86.2%) were found in samples with the highest organic material content in the floodplain soil. For this field experiment, flood plains soils (characterised as basin gley soils) presented high volumetric instability with a retratibility of 67.49% and higher water storage capacities compared to riparian stands soils (characterised as fluvic neosoils).

Effects of curing protocol and storage time on the micro-hardness of resin cements used to lute fiber-reinforced resin posts

Objectives: To determine the micro-hardness profile of two dual cure resin cements (RelyX - U100 (R), 3M-ESPE and Panavia F 2.0 (R), Kuraray) used for cementing fiber-reinforced resin posts (Fibrekor (R) - Jeneric Pentron) under three different curing protocols and two water storage times. Material and methods: Sixty 16mm long bovine incisor roots were endodontically treated and prepared for cementation of the Fibrekor posts. The cements were mixed as instructed, dispensed in the canal, the posts were seated and the curing performed as follows: a) no light activation; b) light-activation immediately after seating the post, and; c) light-activation delayed 5 minutes after seating the post. The teeth were stored in water and retrieved for analysis after 7 days and 3 months. The roots were longitudinally sectioned and the microhardness was determined at the cervical, middle and apical regions along the cement line. The data was analyzed by the three-way ANOVA test (curing mode, storage time and thirds) for each cement. The Tukey test was used for the post-hoc analysis. Results: Light-activation resulted in a significant increase in the microhardness. This was more evident for the cervical region and for the Panavia cement. Storage in water for 3 months caused a reduction of the micro-hardness for both cements. The U100 cement showed less variation in the micro-hardness regardless of the curing protocol and storage time. Conclusions: The micro-hardness of the cements was affected by the curing and storage variables and were material-dependent.

Experimental Adhesives with Different Hydrophilicity: Microshear Test in after 1, 7, and 90 Days' Storage

Purpose: To assess the microshear bond strength of 3 experimental adhesives with different degrees of hydrophilicity after 1, 7 and 90 days of storage. Materials and Methods: The bonding effectiveness of three experimental two-step etch-and-rinse adhesives (bis-GMA, bis-EMA/bis-GMA, polybutadiene [C6H12]) and one commercial adhesive (Single Bond) to sound hydrated dentin was determined using the nnicroshear test with delimitation of the adhesive area after 1, 7, and 90 days of storage in water at 37 degrees C. Two-way ANOVA was performed at the 0.05 probability level. The fractures were classified as adhesive, cohesive in dentin, cohesive in resin, and mixed. Results: The experimental adhesives showed values in the range of 11.31 to 12.96 MPa, with polybutadiene (PBH) showing the lowest bond strengths, bis-GMA the highest, and bis-EMA/bis-GMA intermediary values. Single Bond yielded bond strengths of approximately 24 MPa. Water storage decreased the bond strength in all adhesives. Adhesive fractures were predominant in experimental adhesives, while mixed fractures were the most frequent type in the Single Bond group. Conclusion: The experimental dentin adhesives of this study were able to form resin tags, but they could not penetrate into the collagen fibers and form hybrid layers. The resulting low bond strength decreased with increasing length of storage.

Water sorption of CH3- and CF3-Bis-GMA based resins with additives

Objectives: To evaluate the effect of additives on the water sorption characteristics of Bis-GMA based copolymers and composites containing TEGDMA, CH(3)Bis-GMA or CF(3)Bis-GMA. Material and methods: Fifteen experimental copolymers and corresponding composites were prepared combining Bis-GMA and TEGDMA, CH(3)Bis-GMA or CF(3)Bis-GMA, with aldehyde or diketone (24 and 32 mol%) totaling 30 groups. For composites, barium aluminosilicate glass and pyrogenic silica was added to comonomer mixtures. Photopolymerization was effected by 0.2 wt% each of camphorquinone and N,N-dimethyl-p-toluidine. Specimen densities in dry and water saturated conditions were obtained by Archimedes' method. Water sorption and desorption were evaluated in a desorption-sorption-desorption cycle. Water uptake (%WU), water desorption (%WD), equilibrium solubility (ES; mu g/mm(3)), swelling (f) and volume increase (%V) were calculated using appropriate equations. Results: All resins with additives had increased %WU and ES. TEGDMA-containing systems presented higher %WU, %WD, ES, f and %V values, followed by resins based on CH(3)Bis-GMA and CF(3)Bis-GMA. Conclusions: Aldehyde and diketone led to increases in the water sorption characteristics of experimental resins.

Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

TANK SIZING AND OPTIMIZING LOOP PLACEMENT IN A BRANCHED WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

More than eighteen percent of the world’s population lives without reliable access to clean water, forced to walk long distances to get small amounts of contaminated surface water. Carrying heavy loads of water long distances and ingesting contaminated water can lead to long-term health problems and even death. These problems affect the most vulnerable populations, women, children, and the elderly, more than anyone else. Water access is one of the most pressing issues in development today. Boajibu, a small village in Sierra Leone, where the author served in Peace Corps for two years, lacks access to clean water. Construction of a water distribution system was halted when a civil war broke out in 1992 and has not been continued since. The community currently relies on hand-dug and borehole wells that can become dirty during the dry season, which forces people to drink contaminated water or to travel a far distance to collect clean water. This report is intended to provide a design the system as it was meant to be built. The water system design was completed based on the taps present, interviews with local community leaders, local surveying, and points taken with a GPS. The design is a gravity-fed branched water system, supplied by a natural spring on a hill adjacent to Boajibu. The system’s source is a natural spring on a hill above Boajibu, but the flow rate of the spring is unknown. There has to be enough flow from the spring over a 24-hour period to meet the demands of the users on a daily basis, or what is called providing continuous flow. If the spring has less than this amount of flow, the system must provide intermittent flow, flow that is restricted to a few hours a day. A minimum flow rate of 2.1 liters per second was found to be necessary to provide continuous flow to the users of Boajibu. If this flow is not met, intermittent flow can be provided to the users. In order to aid the construction of a distribution system in the absence of someone with formal engineering training, a table was created detailing water storage tank sizing based on possible source flow rates. A builder can interpolate using the source flow rate found to get the tank size from the table. However, any flow rate below 2.1 liters per second cannot be used in the table. In this case, the builder should size the tank such that it can take in the water that will be supplied overnight, as all the water will be drained during the day because the users will demand more than the spring can supply through the night. In the developing world, there is often a problem collecting enough money to fund large infrastructure projects, such as a water distribution system. Often there is only enough money to add only one or two loops to a water distribution system. It is helpful to know where these one or two loops can be most effectively placed in the system. Various possible loops were designated for the Boajibu water distribution system and the Adaptive Greedy Heuristic Loop Addition Selection Algorithm (AGHLASA) was used to rank the effectiveness of the possible loops to construct. Loop 1 which was furthest upstream was selected because it benefitted the most people for the least cost. While loops which were further downstream were found to be less effective because they would benefit fewer people. Further studies should be conducted on the water use habits of the people of Boajibu to more accurately predict the demands that will be placed on the system. Further population surveying should also be conducted to predict population change over time so that the appropriate capacity can be built into the system to accommodate future growth. The flow at the spring should be measured using a V-notch weir and the system adjusted accordingly. Future studies can be completed adjusting the loop ranking method so that two users who may be using the water system for different lengths of time are not counted the same and vulnerable users are weighted more heavily than more robust users.

Pitting Corrosion in Austenitic Stainless Steel Water Tanks of Hotel Trains

The water storage tanks of hotel trains suffered pitting corrosion. To identify the cause, the tanks were subjected to a detailed metallographic study and the chemical composition of the austenitic stainless steels used in their construction was determined. Both the tank water and the corrosion products were further examined by physicochemical and microbiological testing. Corrosion was shown to be related to an incompatibility between the chloride content of the water and the base and filler metals of the tanks. These findings formed the basis of recommendations aimed at the prevention and control of corrosion in such tanks. Se han detectado problemas de corrosión por picaduras en los depósitos de agua de trenes hotel. Para identificar las causas se llevó a cabo un detallado estudio metalográfico así como de la composición química de los aceros inoxidables austeníticos utilizados en su construcción. También se realizaron estudios fisicoquímicos y microbiológicos de los productos de corrosión. Se ha encontrado que los problemas de corrosión están relacionados con la incompatibilidad entre el contenido en cloruros del agua y los metales base y de aporte de la soldadura de los tanques. En base a estos hallazgos se proponen una serie de recomendaciones encaminadas a la prevención y control de la corrosión de dichos depósitos.

Diagnosing Causes of Water Scarcity in Complex Water Resources Systems and Identifying Risk Management Actions

From the water management perspective, water scarcity is an unacceptable risk of facing water shortages to serve water demands in the near future. Water scarcity may be temporary and related to drought conditions or other accidental situation, or may be permanent and due to deeper causes such as excessive demand growth, lack of infrastructure for water storage or transport, or constraints in water management. Diagnosing the causes of water scarcity in complex water resources systems is a precondition to adopt effective drought risk management actions. In this paper we present four indices which have been developed to evaluate water scarcity. We propose a methodology for interpretation of index values that can lead to conclusions about the reliability and vulnerability of systems to water scarcity, as well as to diagnose their possible causes and to propose solutions. The described methodology was applied to the Ebro river basin, identifying existing and expected problems and possible solutions. System diagnostics, based exclusively on the analysis of index values, were compared with the known reality as perceived by system managers, validating the conclusions in all cases

Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river-basin resilience

Rising demand for food, fiber, and biofuels drives expanding irrigation withdrawals from surface water and groundwater. Irrigation efficiency and water savings have become watchwords in response to climate-induced hydrological variability, increasing freshwater demand for other uses including ecosystem water needs, and low economic productivity of irrigation compared to most other uses. We identify three classes of unintended consequences, presented here as paradoxes. Ever-tighter cycling of water has been shown to increase resource use, an example of the efficiency paradox. In the absence of effective policy to constrain irrigated-area expansion using "saved water", efficiency can aggravate scarcity, deteriorate resource quality, and impair river basin resilience through loss of flexibility and redundancy. Water scarcity and salinity effects in the lower reaches of basins (symptomatic of the scale paradox) may partly be offset over the short-term through groundwater pumping or increasing surface water storage capacity. However, declining ecological flows and increasing salinity have important implications for riparian and estuarine ecosystems and for non-irrigation human uses of water including urban supply and energy generation, examples of the sectoral paradox. This paper briefly considers three regional contexts with broadly similar climatic and water-resource conditions – central Chile, southwestern US, and south-central Spain – where irrigation efficiency directly influences basin resilience. The comparison leads to more generic insights on water policy in relation to irrigation efficiency and emerging or overdue needs for environmental protection.

Indian storage reservoirs with earthen dams: being a practical treatise on their design and construction.

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Evaluation of the sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, 1995 to 2025

To evaluate the long term sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, a county level analysis of the availability of renewable water resources was conducted, and the magnitudes of human withdrawals from surface water and ground water sources and the stored water requirements during the warmest months of the year were evaluated. Estimates of growth in population and electricity generation were then used to estimate the change in withdrawals assuming that the rates of water use either remain at their current levels (the business as usual scenario) or that they exhibit improvements in efficiency at the same rate as observed over 1975 to 1995 (the improved efficiency scenario). The estimates show several areas, notably the Southwest and major metropolitan areas throughout the United States, as being likely to have significant new storage requirements with the business-as-usual scenario, under the condition of average water availability. These new requirements could be substantially eliminated under the improved efficiency scenario, thus indicating the importance of water use efficiency in meeting future requirements. The national assessment identified regions of potential water sustainability concern; these regions can be the subject of more targeted data collection and analyses in the future.

Resistance and resilience to droughts : hydropedological controls on catchment storage and run-off response

Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Jonathan Dick, Maria Blumstock, Claire Tunaley and Jason Lessels for assistance with the field work and Audrey Innes for lab sample preparation. Climatic data were provided by Iain Malcolm and Marine Scotland Fisheries at the Freshwater Lab, Pitlochry. Additional precipitation and temperature data were provided by the UK Meteorological Office and the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC). We are grateful for the careful and constructive comments of two anonymous reviewers that helped to improve an earlier version of this manuscript. The European Research Council ERC (project GA 335910) is thanked for funding.