Probability and statistics

Now in its sixth edition, the Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be a must have publication in the transportation industry, as it has been for the past 60 years. The new edition provides updated information for people entering the practice and for those already practicing. The handbook is a convenient desk reference, as well as an all in one source of principles and proven techniques in traffic engineering. Most chapters are presented in a new format, which divides the chapters into four areas-basics, current practice, emerging trends and information sources. Chapter topics include road users, vehicle characteristics, statistics, planning for operations, communications, safety, regulations, traffic calming, access management, geometrics, signs and markings, signals, parking, traffic demand, maintenance and studies. In addition, as the focus in transportation has shifted from project based to operations based, two new chapters have been added-"Planning for Operations" and "Managing Traffic Demand to Address Congestion: Providing Travelers with Choices." The Traffic Engineering Handbook continues to be one of the primary reference sources for study to become a certified Professional Traffic Operations Engineer™. Chapters are authored by notable and experienced authors, and reviewed and edited by a distinguished panel of traffic engineering experts.

The Heavy Vehicle Study : a case-control study investigating risk factors for crash in long distance heavy vehicle drivers in Australia

Background Heavy vehicle transportation continues to grow internationally; yet crash rates are high, and the risk of injury and death extends to all road users. The work environment for the heavy vehicle driver poses many challenges; conditions such as scheduling and payment are proposed risk factors for crash, yet the precise measure of these needs quantifying. Other risk factors such as sleep disorders including obstructive sleep apnoea have been shown to increase crash risk in motor vehicle drivers however the risk of heavy vehicle crash from this and related health conditions needs detailed investigation. Methods and Design The proposed case control study will recruit 1034 long distance heavy vehicle drivers: 517 who have crashed and 517 who have not. All participants will be interviewed at length, regarding their driving and crash history, typical workloads, scheduling and payment, trip history over several days, sleep patterns, health, and substance use. All participants will have administered a nasal flow monitor for the detection of obstructive sleep apnoea. Discussion Significant attention has been paid to the enforcement of legislation aiming to deter problems such as excess loading, speeding and substance use; however, there is inconclusive evidence as to the direction and strength of associations of many other postulated risk factors for heavy vehicle crashes. The influence of factors such as remuneration and scheduling on crash risk is unclear; so too the association between sleep apnoea and the risk of heavy vehicle driver crash. Contributory factors such as sleep quality and quantity, body mass and health status will be investigated. Quantifying the measure of effect of these factors on the heavy vehicle driver will inform policy development that aims toward safer driving practices and reduction in heavy vehicle crash; protecting the lives of many on the road network.

Powered two wheelers in a changing world : challenges and opportunities

Powered two wheelers (PTWs) come in diverse forms and are used for a range of purposes in very different parts of the world. In many parts of the world, the forms and uses of PTWs are changing, influenced by social, economic and demographic changes. Most of the challenges associated with PTWs relate to safety, while the majority of the opportunities relate to mobility. The challenges for improving safety relate to the PTW user, other road users, the road environment, the vehicle, data and research, and socio-political dimensions. The relative importance of particular challenges varies between developed and developing countries, and among developing countries according to whether PTWs are largely used for recreation or for transport. PTWs present a range of psychological, transport, economic and environmental opportunities to individuals and societies. The fun and excitement of riding PTWs is a major motivator for their purchase and use for recreational purposes, both off-road and on-road. The transport and economic advantages to the individual also need to be considered. At a societal level, research has examined the potential for increasing PTW volumes to reduce fossil fuel use and traffic congestion in busy cities. The future of PTWs may differ greatly between countries and environmental and technological changes are leading to an evolution in the form of PTWs to encompass new modes of personal transportation.

Vulnerability, insurance and policy: The learner driver's standard of care

In Cook v Cook the Australian High Court held that the standard of reasonable care owed by a learner driver to an instructor, conscious of the driver’s lack of experience, was lower than that owed to other passengers and road users. Recently, in Imbree v McNeilly, the High Court declined to follow this principle, concluding that the driver’s status or relationship with the claimant should no longer influence or alter the standard of care owed. The decision therefore provides an opportunity to re-examine the rationale and policy behind current jurisprudence governing the standard of care owed by learner drivers. In doing so, this article considers the principles relevant to determining the standard and Imbree’s implications for other areas of tort law and claimant v defendant relationships. It argues that Imbree was influenced by changing judicial perceptions concerning the vulnerability of driving instructors and the relevance of insurance to tortious liability.

The Brisbane Cordon scheme : part A - preliminary investigation

It could be said that road congestion is one of the most significant problems within any modern metropolitan area. For several decades now, around the globe, congestion in metropolitan areas has been worsening for two main reasons. Firstly, road congestion has significantly increased due to a higher demand for road space because of growth in populations, economic activity and incomes (Hensher & Puckett, 2007). This factor, in conjunction with a significant lack of investment in new road and public transport infrastructure, has seen the road network capacities of cities exceeded by traffic volumes and thus, resulted in increased traffic congestion. This relentless increase in road traffic congestion has resulted in a dramatic increase in costs for both the road users and ultimately the metropolitan areas concerned (Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, 2007). In response to this issue, several major cities around the world, including London, Stockholm and Singapore, have implemented congestion-charging schemes in order to combat the effects of road congestion. A congestion-charging scheme provides a mechanism for regulating traffic flows into the congested areas of a city, whilst simultaneously generating public revenue that can be used to improve both the public transport and road networks of the region. The aim of this paper was to assess the concept of congestion-charging, whilst reflecting on the experiences of various cities that have already implemented such systems. The findings from this paper have been used to inform the design of a congestion-charging scheme for the city of Brisbane in Australia in a supplementary study (Whitehead, Bunker, & Chung, 2011). The first section of this paper examines the background to road congestion; the theory behind different congestion-charging schemes; and the various technologies involved with the concept. The second section of this paper details the experiences, in relation to implementing a congestion-charging scheme, from the city of Stockholm in Sweden. This research has been crucial in forming a list of recommendations and lessons learnt for the design of a congestion-charging scheme in Australia. It is these recommendations that directly inform the proposed design of the Brisbane Cordon Scheme detailed in Whitehead et al. (2011).

Incidence, severity and correlates of bicycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia

Bicycle injuries, particularly those resulting from single bicycle crashes, are underreported in both police and hospital records. Data on cyclist characteristics and crash circumstances are also often lacking. As a result, the ability to develop comprehensive injury prevention policies is hampered. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence, severity, cyclist characteristics, and crash circumstances associated with cycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia. A cross-sectional study of Queensland cyclists was conducted in 2009. Respondents (n=2056) completed an online survey about their cycling experiences, including cycling injuries. Logistic regression modelling was used to examine the associations between demographic and cycling behaviour variables with experiencing cycling injuries in the past year, and, separately, with serious cycling injuries requiring a trip to a hospital. Twenty-seven percent of respondents (n=545) reported injuries, and 6% (n=114) reported serious injuries. In multivariable modelling, reporting an injury was more likely for respondents who had cycled <5 years, compared to ≥10 years (p<0.005); cycled for competition (p=0.01); or experienced harassment from motor vehicle occupants (p<0.001). There were no gender differences in injury incidence, and respondents who cycled for transport did not have an increased risk of injury. Reporting a serious injury was more likely for those whose injury involved other road users (p<0.03). Along with environmental and behavioural approaches for reducing collisions and near-collisions with motor vehicles, interventions that improve the design and maintenance of cycling infrastructure, increase cyclists’ skills, and encourage safe cycling behaviours and bicycle maintenance will also be important for reducing the overall incidence of cycling injuries.

“Teaching them a lesson?” : a qualitative exploration of underlying motivations for driver aggression

Aggressive driving is increasingly a concern for drivers in highly motorised countries. However, the role of driver intent in this behaviour is problematic and there is little research on driver cognitions in relation to aggressive driving incidents. In addition, while drivers who admit to behaving aggressively on the road also frequently report being recipients of similar behaviours, little is known about the relationship between perpetration and victimisation or about how road incidents escalate into the more serious events that feature in capture media attention. The current study used qualitative interviews to explore driver cognitions and underlying motivations for aggressive behaviours on the road. A total of 30 drivers aged 18-49 years were interviewed about their experiences with aggressive driving. A key theme identified in responses was driver aggression as an attempt to manage or modify the behaviour of other road users. Two subthemes were identified and appeared related to separate motivations for aggressive responses: ‘teaching them a lesson’ referred to situations where respondents intended to convey criticism or disapproval, usually of unintended behaviours by the other driver, and thus encourage self-correction; and ‘justified retaliation’ which referred to situations where respondents perceived deliberate intent on the part of the other driver and responded aggressively in return. Mildly aggressive driver behaviour appears to be common. Moreover such behaviour has a sufficiently negative impact on other drivers that it may be worth addressing because of its potential for triggering retaliation in kind or escalation of aggression, thus compromising safety.

The influence of sensitivity to reward and punishment, propensity for sensation seeking, depression, and anxiety on the risky behaviour of novice drivers : a path model

Young novice drivers are significantly more likely to be killed or injured in car crashes than older, experienced drivers. Graduated driver licensing (GDL), which allows the novice to gain driving experience under less-risky circumstances, has resulted in reduced crash incidence; however, the driver's psychological traits are ignored. This paper explores the relationships between gender, age, anxiety, depression, sensitivity to reward and punishment, sensation-seeking propensity, and risky driving. Participants were 761 young drivers aged 17–24 (M= 19.00, SD= 1.56) with a Provisional (intermediate) driver's licence who completed an online survey comprising socio-demographic questions, the Impulsive Sensation Seeking Scale, Kessler's Psychological Distress Scale, the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire, and the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale. Path analysis revealed depression, reward sensitivity, and sensation-seeking propensity predicted the self-reported risky behaviour of the young novice drivers. Gender was a moderator; and the anxiety level of female drivers also influenced their risky driving. Interventions do not directly consider the role of rewards and sensation seeking, or the young person's mental health. An approach that does take these variables into account may contribute to improved road safety outcomes for both young and older road users.

Cyclists' experiences of harassment from motorists : findings from a survey of cyclists in Queensland, Australia

Objective Harassment from motorists is a major constraint on cycling that has been under-researched. We examined incidence and correlates of harassment of cyclists. Methods Cyclists in Queensland, Australia were surveyed in 2009 about their experiences of harassment while cycling, from motor vehicle occupants. Respondents also indicated the forms of harassment they experienced. Logistic regression modeling was used to examine gender and other correlates of harassment. Results Of 1830 respondents, 76% of men and 72% of women reported harassment in the previous 12 months. The most reported forms of harassment were driving too close (66%), shouting abuse (63%), and making obscene gestures/sexual harassment (45%). Older age, overweight/obesity, less cycling experience (< 2 years) and less frequent cycling (< 3 days/week) were associated with less likelihood of harassment, while living in highly advantaged areas (SEIFA deciles 8 or 9), cycling for recreation, and cycling for competition were associated with increased likelihood of harassment. Gender was not associated with reports of harassment. Conclusions Efforts to decrease harassment should include a closer examination of the circumstances that give rise to harassment, as well as fostering road environments and driver attitudes and behaviors that recognize that cyclists are legitimate road users.

Young and unlicensed : risky driving before entering the licensing system

Objective: On-road driving before gaining a valid licence (pre-Licence driving) represents a risk for all road users. Pre-Licence driving among young people who obtained a Provisional licence within an enhanced graduated driver licensing program in Queensland, Australia, was investigated. Methods: Recently-licensed drivers (n = 1032) aged 17-19 years (M = 17.54) completed a survey exploring their driving experiences while on their Learners licence. Six months later, 355 of these drivers completed the same survey exploring their experiences on their Provisional (intermediate) licence. Results: Twelve percent of participants reported pre-Licence driving. Pre-Licence drivers reported significantly more risky driving as Learners and Provisional drivers. Conclusions: Pre-Licence drivers not only place themselves and other road users at risk at the time but also continue to do so through their subsequent risky driving. Pre-licence driving should be discouraged, and parents should be encouraged to monitor car use and the driving behaviour of their children.

Wear it or wear the cost : current seatbelt wearing rates in Queensland

Observational seatbelt wearing studies are a valuable tool for obtaining up-to-date information about rates of use. Given that one quarter of vehicle occupants killed on Queensland roads in recent years were not wearing seatbelts, it is important that authorities are able to identify non-wearers and take steps to increase compliance with seatbelt laws to reduce the severity of crashes and, therefore, the road toll. An observational study of seatbelt use was conducted in metropolitan, regional and rural locations throughout Queensland in May and June, 2010. Trained observers took note of seatbelt use of all occupants of passenger vehicles, noting their gender, approximate age group, seating position, vehicle type, licence type (i.e. visible L or P plates), mobile phone use, and the date, time and location of the observation. Of 19,579 observations, 99.04% (19,391) of occupants were observed wearing seatbelts, as only 0.96% of occupants (188) were not wearing a seatbelt. There were differences in seatbelt wearing rates for a number of study variables, although most were very small. However, seatbelt wearing rates were 3.84% lower for drivers observed using a mobile phone than for those who were not. While compliance with seatbelt laws seems to be very high, it is still concerning that so few non-wearers represent a disproportionately large proportion of road fatalities and serious injuries in Queensland. Road safety authorities must therefore continue to find ways to improve seatbelt use, as small gains in wearing rates will translate into significant fatality reductions.

Adults cycling on the footpath : what do the data show?

Recent increases in cycling have led to many media articles highlighting concerns about interactions between cyclists and pedestrians on footpaths and off-road paths. Under the Australian Road Rules, adults are not allowed to ride on footpaths unless accompanying a child 12 years of age or younger. However, this rule does not apply in Queensland. This paper reviews international studies that examine the safety of footpath cycling for both cyclists and pedestrians, and relevant Australian crash and injury data. The results of a survey of more than 2,500 Queensland adult cyclists are presented in terms of the frequency of footpath cycling, the characteristics of those cyclists and the characteristics of self-reported footpath crashes. A third of the respondents reported riding on the footpath and, of those, about two-thirds did so reluctantly. Riding on the footpath was more common for utilitarian trips and for new riders, although the average distance ridden on footpaths was greater for experienced riders. About 5% of distance ridden and a similar percentage of self-reported crashes occurred on footpaths. These data are discussed in terms of the Safe Systems principle of separating road users with vastly different levels of kinetic energy. The paper concludes that footpaths are important facilities for both inexperienced and experienced riders and for utilitarian riding, especially in locations riders consider do not provide a safe system for cycling.

An estimation of crash risks using a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique

Prevention and safety promotion programmes. Traditionally, in-depth investigations of crash risks are conducted using exposure controlled study or case-control methodology. However, these studies need either observational data for control cases or exogenous exposure data like vehicle-kilometres travel, entry flow or product of conflicting flow for a particular traffic location, or a traffic site. These data are not readily available and often require extensive data collection effort on a system-wide basis. Aim: The objective of this research is to propose an alternative methodology to investigate crash risks of a road user group in different circumstances using readily available traffic police crash data. Methods: This study employs a combination of a log-linear model and the quasi-induced exposure technique to estimate crash risks of a road user group. While the log-linear model reveals the significant interactions and thus the prevalence of crashes of a road user group under various sets of traffic, environmental and roadway factors, the quasi-induced exposure technique estimates relative exposure of that road user in the same set of explanatory variables. Therefore, the combination of these two techniques provides relative measures of crash risks under various influences of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions. The proposed methodology has been illustrated using Brisbane motorcycle crash data of five years. Results: Interpretations of results on different combination of interactive factors show that the poor conspicuity of motorcycles is a predominant cause of motorcycle crashes. Inability of other drivers to correctly judge the speed and distance of an oncoming motorcyclist is also evident in right-of-way violation motorcycle crashes at intersections. Discussion and Conclusions: The combination of a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique is a promising methodology and can be applied to better estimate crash risks of other road users. This study also highlights the importance of considering interaction effects to better understand hazardous situations. A further study on the comparison between the proposed methodology and case-control method would be useful.

A further exploration of sensation seeking propensity, reward sensitivity, depression, anxiety, and the risky behaviour of young novice drivers in a structural equation model

Young novice drivers constitute a major public health concern due to the number of crashes in which they are involved, and the resultant injuries and fatalities. Previous research suggests psychological traits (reward sensitivity, sensation seeking propensity), and psychological states (anxiety, depression) influence their risky behaviour. The relationships between gender, anxiety, depression, reward sensitivity, sensation seeking propensity and risky driving are explored. Participants (390 intermediate drivers, 17-25 years) completed two online surveys at a six month interval. Surveys comprised sociodemographics, Brief Sensation Seeking Scale, Kessler’s Psychological Distress Scale, an abridged Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire, and risky driving behaviour was measured by the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale. Structural equation modelling revealed anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity predicted risky driving. Gender was a moderator, with only reward sensitivity predicting risky driving for males. Future interventions which consider the role of rewards, sensation seeking, and mental health may contribute to improved road safety for younger and older road users alike.

Modeling fault among motorcyclists involved in crashes

Singapore crash statistics from 2001 to 2006 show that the motorcyclist fatality and injury rates per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as victims of other road users is also about 43%. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes. This is done by using the binary logit model to differentiate between at-fault and not-at-fault cases and the analysis is further categorized by the location of the crashes, i.e., at intersections, on expressways and at non-intersections. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Time trend effect shows that not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists has increased with time. The likelihood of night time crashes has also increased for not-at-fault crashes at intersections and expressways. The presence of surveillance cameras is effective in reducing not-at-fault crashes at intersections. Wet road surfaces increase at-fault crash involvement at non-intersections. At intersections, not-at-fault crash involvement is more likely on single lane roads or on median lane of multi-lane roads, while on expressways at-fault crash involvement is more likely on the median lane. Roads with higher speed limit have higher at-fault crash involvement and this is also true on expressways. Motorcycles with pillion passengers or with higher engine capacity have higher likelihood of being at-fault in crashes on expressways. Motorcyclists are more likely to be at-fault in collisions involving pedestrians and this effect is higher at night. In multi-vehicle crashes, motorcyclists are more likely to be victims than at fault. Young and older riders are more likely to be at-fault in crashes than middle-aged group of riders. The findings of this study will help to develop more targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety and more cost-effective safety awareness program in motorcyclist training.