Spanning tests in return and stochastic discount factor mean-variance frontiers: A unifying approach

We propose new spanning tests that assess if the initial and additional assets share theeconomically meaningful cost and mean representing portfolios. We prove their asymptoticequivalence to existing tests under local alternatives. We also show that unlike two-step oriterated procedures, single-step methods such as continuously updated GMM yield numericallyidentical overidentifyng restrictions tests, so there is arguably a single spanning test.To prove these results, we extend optimal GMM inference to deal with singularities in thelong run second moment matrix of the influence functions. Finally, we test for spanningusing size and book-to-market sorted US stock portfolios.

Modern perspectives on stabilization policies

The present paper describes recent research on two central themes of Keynes General Theory: (i) the social waste associated with recessions, and (ii) the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool. The paper also discusses some evidence on the extent to which fiscal policy has been used as a stabilizing tool in industrial economies over the past two decades.

Stabilization versus insurance: Welfare effects of procyclical taxation under incomplete markets

We construct and calibrate a general equilibrium business cycle model with unemployment and precautionary saving. We compute the cost of business cycles and locate the optimum in a set of simple cyclical fiscal policies. Our economy exhibits productivity shocks, giving firms an incentive to hire more when productivity is high. However, business cycles make workers' income riskier, both by increasing the unconditional probability of unusuallylong unemployment spells, and by making wages more variable, and therefore they decrease social welfare by around one-fourth or one-third of 1% of consumption. Optimal fiscal policy offsets the cycle, holding unemployment benefits constant but varying the tax rate procyclically to smooth hiring. By running a deficit of 4% to 5% of output in recessions, the government eliminates half the variation in the unemployment rate, most of the variation in workers'aggregate consumption, and most of the welfare cost of business cycles.

Breeding system and genetic variance in the monogamous, semi-social shrew, Crocidura russula

The population-genetic consequences of monogamy and male philopatry (a rare breeding system in mammals) were investigated using microsatellite markers in the semisocial and anthropophilic shrew Crocidura russula. A hierarchical sampling design over a 16-km geographical transect revealed a large genetic diversity (h = 0.813) with significant differentiation among subpopulations (F-ST = 5-6%), which suggests an exchange of 4.4 migrants per generation. Demic effective-size estimates were very high, due both to this limited gene inflow and to the inner structure of subpopulations. These were made of 13-20 smaller units (breeding groups), comprising an estimate of four breeding pairs each. Members of the same breeding groups displayed significant coancestries (F-LS = 9-10%), which was essentially due to strong male kinship: syntopic males were on average related at the half-sib level. Female dispersal among breeding groups was not complete (similar to 39%), and insufficient to prevent inbreeding. From our results, the breeding strategy of C. russula seems less efficient than classical mammalian systems (polygyny and male dispersal) in disentangling coancestry from inbreeding, but more so in retaining genetic variance.

Endogenous business cycles and stabilization policies

The paper reports results on the effects of stylized stabilization policies on endogenously created fluctuations. A simple monetary model with intertemporally optimizing agents is considered. Fluctuations in output may occur due to fluctuations in labor supply which are again caused by volatile expectations which are ``self fulfilling'', i.e. correct given the model. It turns out that stabilization policies that are sufficiently countercyclical in the sense that government spending (on transfers or demand) depends sufficiently strongly negatively on GNP-increases can stabilize the economy at a monetary steadystate for an arbitrarily low degree of distortion of that steady state. Such stabilization has unambiguously good welfare effects and can be achieved without features such as positive lump sum taxation or negative income taxation as part of the stabilization policy.

Variance reduction methods for simulation of densities on Wiener space

We develop a general error analysis framework for the Monte Carlo simulationof densities for functionals in Wiener space. We also study variancereduction methods with the help of Malliavin derivatives. For this, wegive some general heuristic principles which are applied to diffusionprocesses. A comparison with kernel density estimates is made.

Duality in mean-variance frontiers with conditioning information

Portfolio and stochastic discount factor (SDF) frontiers are usually regarded as dual objects, and researchers sometimes use one to answer questions about the other. However, the introduction of conditioning information and active portfolio strategies alters this relationship. For instance, the unconditional portfolio frontier in Hansen and Richard (1987) is not dual to the unconditional SDF frontier in Gallant, Hansen and Tauchen (1990). We characterise the dual objects to those frontiers, and relate them to the frontiers generated with managed portfolios, which are commonly used in empirical work. We also study the implications of a safe asset and other special cases.

Sample size and statistical power in the hierarchical analysis of variance: applications in morphometry of the nervous system.

Analysis of variance is commonly used in morphometry in order to ascertain differences in parameters between several populations. Failure to detect significant differences between populations (type II error) may be due to suboptimal sampling and lead to erroneous conclusions; the concept of statistical power allows one to avoid such failures by means of an adequate sampling. Several examples are given in the morphometry of the nervous system, showing the use of the power of a hierarchical analysis of variance test for the choice of appropriate sample and subsample sizes. In the first case chosen, neuronal densities in the human visual cortex, we find the number of observations to be of little effect. For dendritic spine densities in the visual cortex of mice and humans, the effect is somewhat larger. A substantial effect is shown in our last example, dendritic segmental lengths in monkey lateral geniculate nucleus. It is in the nature of the hierarchical model that sample size is always more important than subsample size. The relative weight to be attributed to subsample size thus depends on the relative magnitude of the between observations variance compared to the between individuals variance.

Nuclear scaffold proteins are differently sensitive to stabilizing treatment by heat or Cu++.

The distribution of three nuclear scaffold proteins (of which one is a component of a particular class of nuclear bodies) has been studied in intact K562 human erythroleukemia cells, isolated nuclei, and nuclear scaffolds. Nuclear scaffolds were obtained by extraction with the ionic detergent lithium diidosalicylate (LIS), using nuclei prepared in the absence of divalent cations (metal-depleted nuclei) and stabilized either by a brief heat exposure (20 min at 37C or 42C) or by Cu++ ions at 0C. Proteins were visualized by in situ immunocytochemistry and confocal microscopy. Only a 160-kD nuclear scaffold protein was unaffected by all the stabilization procedures performed on isolated nuclei. However, LIS extraction and scaffold preparation procedures markedly modified the distribution of the polypeptide seen in intact cells, unless stabilization had been performed by Cu++. In isolated nuclei, only Cu++ treatment preserved the original distribution of the two other antigens (M(r), 125 and 126 kD), whereas in heat-stabilized nuclei we detected dramatic changes. In nuclear scaffolds reacted with antibodies to 125 and 126-kD proteins, the fluorescent pattern was always disarranged regardless of the stabilization procedure. These results, obtained with nuclei prepared in the absence of Mg+2 ions, indicate that heat treatment per se can induce changes in the distribution of nuclear proteins, at variance with previous suggestions. Nevertheless, each of the proteins we have studied behaves in a different way, possibly because of its specific association with the nuclear scaffold.

Strain-induced stabilization of new magnetic spinel structures in epitaxial oxide heterostructures.

We report here on the growth of NiFe2O4 epitaxial thin films of different thickness (3 nm ¿ t ¿ 32 nm) on single crystalline substrates having spinel (MgAl2O4) or perovskite (SrTiO3) structure. Ultrathin films, grown on any of those substrates, display a huge enhancement of the saturation magnetization: we will show that partial cationic inversion may account for this enhancement, although we will argue that suppression of antiparallel collinear spin alignment due to size-effects cannot be excluded. Besides, for thicker films, the magnetization of films on MAO is found to be similar to that of bulk ferrite; in contrast, the magnetization of films on STO is substantially lower than bulk. We discuss on the possible mechanisms leading to this remarkable difference of magnetization.

The mean-variance model from the inverse of the variance-covariance matrix

En este artículo, a partir de la inversa de la matriz de varianzas y covarianzas se obtiene el modelo Esperanza-Varianza de Markowitz siguiendo un camino más corto y matemáticamente riguroso. También se obtiene la ecuación de equilibrio del CAPM de Sharpe.

Iowa Interstate Rest Area Stabilization Ponds, September 1979

This report is presented in two parts . P a r t I takes a new look at the design of rest area stabilization ponds after nearly 10 years' experience with some of the existing ponds and in the light of new design standards issued by Iowa DEQ. The Iowa DOT is embarking on improvements t o the ponds a t some of the r e s t areas. These improvements may include installation of drainage tile around the ponds to lower the water table below the pond bottom, sealing of the ponds with bentonite clay to reduce the infiltration to limits recently established by Iowa DEQ, and the enlargement of the ponds installation of aeration equipment t o increase the pond capacity. As the Iowa DOT embarks on this improvement program, it behooves them t o make only the improvements that are absolutely necessary to achieve waste water treatment goals. These ponds are subject to an extremely seasonal load and thus the ordinary standards used for pond design are not appropriate. Thus, Part I of the report presents a rationale for design and operation of the ponds which is deemed appropriate for t h e i r unique seasonally loaded character. Part I1 of the report looks a t the feasibility of using wind power for the aeration of the ponds, if and when aeration is deemed necessary.

Effects of common origin and common rearing environment on variance in ectoparasite load and phenotype of nestling Alpine swifts

Knowledge of the quantitative genetics of resistance to parasitism is key to appraise host evolutionary responses to parasite selection. Here, we studied effects of common origin (i.e. genetic and pre-hatching parental effects) and common rearing environment (i.e. post-hatching parental effects and other environment effects) on variance in ectoparasite load in nestling Alpine swifts (Apus melba). This colonial bird is intensely parasitized by blood sucking louse-flies that impair nestling development and survival. By cross-fostering half of the hatchlings between pairs of nests, we show strong significant effect of common rearing environment on variance (90.7% in 2002 and 90.9% in 2003) in the number of louse-flies per nestling and no significant effect of common origin on variance in the number of louse-flies per nestling. In contrast, significant effects of common origin were found for all the nestling morphological traits (i.e. body mass, wing length, tail length, fork length and sternum length) under investigation. Hence, our study suggests that genetic and pre-hatching parental effects play little role in the distribution of parasites among nestling Alpine swifts, and thus that nestlings have only limited scope for evolutionary responses against parasites. Our results highlight the need to take into consideration environmental factors, including the evolution of post-hatching parental effects such as nest sanitation, in our understanding of host-parasite relationships.