UV index measurement and model agreement: uncertainties and limitations

En les últimes dècades, l'increment dels nivells de radiació solar ultraviolada (UVR) que arriba a la Terra (principalment degut a la disminució d'ozó estratosfèric) juntament amb l'augment detectat en malalties relacionades amb l'exposició a la UVR, ha portat a un gran volum d'investigacions sobre la radiació solar en aquesta banda i els seus efectes en els humans. L'índex ultraviolat (UVI), que ha estat adoptat internacionalment, va ser definit amb el propòsit d'informar al públic general sobre els riscos d'exposar el cos nu a la UVR i per tal d'enviar missatges preventius. L'UVI es va definir inicialment com el valor màxim diari. No obstant, el seu ús actual s'ha ampliat i té sentit referir-se a un valor instantani o a una evolució diària del valor d'UVI mesurat, modelitzat o predit. El valor concret d'UVI està afectat per la geometria Sol-Terra, els núvols, l'ozó, els aerosols, l'altitud i l'albedo superficial. Les mesures d'UVI d'alta qualitat són essencials com a referència i per estudiar tendències a llarg termini; es necessiten també tècniques acurades de modelització per tal d'entendre els factors que afecten la UVR, per predir l'UVI i com a control de qualitat de les mesures. És d'esperar que les mesures més acurades d'UVI s'obtinguin amb espectroradiòmetres. No obstant, com que els costs d'aquests dispositius són elevats, és més habitual trobar dades d'UVI de radiòmetres eritemàtics (de fet, la majoria de les xarxes d'UVI estan equipades amb aquest tipus de sensors). Els millors resultats en modelització s'obtenen amb models de transferència radiativa de dispersió múltiple quan es coneix bé la informació d'entrada. No obstant, habitualment no es coneix informació d'entrada, com per exemple les propietats òptiques dels aerosols, la qual cosa pot portar a importants incerteses en la modelització. Sovint, s'utilitzen models més simples per aplicacions com ara la predicció d'UVI o l'elaboració de mapes d'UVI, ja que aquests són més ràpids i requereixen menys paràmetres d'entrada. Tenint en compte aquest marc de treball, l'objectiu general d'aquest estudi és analitzar l'acord al qual es pot arribar entre la mesura i la modelització d'UVI per condicions de cel sense núvols. D'aquesta manera, en aquest estudi es presenten comparacions model-mesura per diferents tècniques de modelització, diferents opcions d'entrada i per mesures d'UVI tant de radiòmetres eritemàtics com d'espectroradiòmeters. Com a conclusió general, es pot afirmar que la comparació model-mesura és molt útil per detectar limitacions i estimar incerteses tant en les modelitzacions com en les mesures. Pel que fa a la modelització, les principals limitacions que s'han trobat és la falta de coneixement de la informació d'aerosols considerada com a entrada dels models. També, s'han trobat importants diferències entre l'ozó mesurat des de satèl·lit i des de la superfície terrestre, la qual cosa pot portar a diferències importants en l'UVI modelitzat. PTUV, una nova i simple parametrització pel càlcul ràpid d'UVI per condicions de cel serens, ha estat desenvolupada en base a càlculs de transferència radiativa. La parametrització mostra una bona execució tant respecte el model base com en comparació amb diverses mesures d'UVI. PTUV ha demostrat la seva utilitat per aplicacions particulars com ara l'estudi de l'evolució anual de l'UVI per un cert lloc (Girona) i la composició de mapes d'alta resolució de valors d'UVI típics per un territori concret (Catalunya). En relació a les mesures, es constata que és molt important saber la resposta espectral dels radiòmetres eritemàtics per tal d'evitar grans incerteses a la mesura d'UVI. Aquest instruments, si estan ben caracteritzats, mostren una bona comparació amb els espectroradiòmetres d'alta qualitat en la mesura d'UVI. Les qüestions més importants respecte les mesures són la calibració i estabilitat a llarg termini. També, s'ha observat un efecte de temperatura en el PTFE, un material utilitzat en els difusors en alguns instruments, cosa que potencialment podria tenir implicacions importants en el camp experimental. Finalment, i pel que fa a les comparacions model-mesura, el millor acord s'ha trobat quan es consideren mesures d'UVI d'espectroradiòmetres d'alta qualitat i s'usen models de transferència radiativa que consideren les millors dades disponibles pel que fa als paràmetres òptics d'ozó i aerosols i els seus canvis en el temps. D'aquesta manera, l'acord pot ser tan alt dins un 0.1º% en UVI, i típicament entre menys d'un 3%. Aquest acord es veu altament deteriorat si s'ignora la informació d'aerosols i depèn de manera important del valor d'albedo de dispersió simple dels aerosols. Altres dades d'entrada del model, com ara l'albedo superficial i els perfils d'ozó i temperatura introdueixen una incertesa menor en els resultats de modelització.

Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sampling uncertainties in surface radiation budget calculations in RADAGAST

In the Radiative Atmospheric Divergence Using ARM Mobile Facility GERB and AMMA Stations (RADAGAST) project we calculate the divergence of radiative flux across the atmosphere by comparing fluxes measured at each end of an atmospheric column above Niamey, in the African Sahel region. The combination of broadband flux measurements from geostationary orbit and the deployment for over 12 months of a comprehensive suite of active and passive instrumentation at the surface eliminates a number of sampling issues that could otherwise affect divergence calculations of this sort. However, one sampling issue that challenges the project is the fact that the surface flux data are essentially measurements made at a point, while the top-of-atmosphere values are taken over a solid angle that corresponds to an area at the surface of some 2500 km2. Variability of cloud cover and aerosol loading in the atmosphere mean that the downwelling fluxes, even when averaged over a day, will not be an exact match to the area-averaged value over that larger area, although we might expect that it is an unbiased estimate thereof. The heterogeneity of the surface, for example, fixed variations in albedo, further means that there is a likely systematic difference in the corresponding upwelling fluxes. In this paper we characterize and quantify this spatial sampling problem. We bound the root-mean-square error in the downwelling fluxes by exploiting a second set of surface flux measurements from a site that was run in parallel with the main deployment. The differences in the two sets of fluxes lead us to an upper bound to the sampling uncertainty, and their correlation leads to another which is probably optimistic as it requires certain other conditions to be met. For the upwelling fluxes we use data products from a number of satellite instruments to characterize the relevant heterogeneities and so estimate the systematic effects that arise from the flux measurements having to be taken at a single point. The sampling uncertainties vary with the season, being higher during the monsoon period. We find that the sampling errors for the daily average flux are small for the shortwave irradiance, generally less than 5 W m−2, under relatively clear skies, but these increase to about 10 W m−2 during the monsoon. For the upwelling fluxes, again taking daily averages, systematic errors are of order 10 W m−2 as a result of albedo variability. The uncertainty on the longwave component of the surface radiation budget is smaller than that on the shortwave component, in all conditions, but a bias of 4 W m−2 is calculated to exist in the surface leaving longwave flux.

Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region

Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Uncertainties in annual riverine phosphorus load estimation: Impact of load estimation methodology, sampling frequency, baseflow index and catchment population density

Models developed to identify the rates and origins of nutrient export from land to stream require an accurate assessment of the nutrient load present in the water body in order to calibrate model parameters and structure. These data are rarely available at a representative scale and in an appropriate chemical form except in research catchments. Observational errors associated with nutrient load estimates based on these data lead to a high degree of uncertainty in modelling and nutrient budgeting studies. Here, daily paired instantaneous P and flow data for 17 UK research catchments covering a total of 39 water years (WY) have been used to explore the nature and extent of the observational error associated with nutrient flux estimates based on partial fractions and infrequent sampling. The daily records were artificially decimated to create 7 stratified sampling records, 7 weekly records, and 30 monthly records from each WY and catchment. These were used to evaluate the impact of sampling frequency on load estimate uncertainty. The analysis underlines the high uncertainty of load estimates based on monthly data and individual P fractions rather than total P. Catchments with a high baseflow index and/or low population density were found to return a lower RMSE on load estimates when sampled infrequently than those with a tow baseflow index and high population density. Catchment size was not shown to be important, though a limitation of this study is that daily records may fail to capture the full range of P export behaviour in smaller catchments with flashy hydrographs, leading to an underestimate of uncertainty in Load estimates for such catchments. Further analysis of sub-daily records is needed to investigate this fully. Here, recommendations are given on load estimation methodologies for different catchment types sampled at different frequencies, and the ways in which this analysis can be used to identify observational error and uncertainty for model calibration and nutrient budgeting studies. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Resolution of the uncertainties in the radiative forcing of HFC-134a

HFC-134a (CF3CH2F) is the most rapidly growing hydrofluorocarbon in terms of atmospheric abundance. It is currently used in a large number of household refrigerators and air-conditioning systems and its concentration in the atmosphere is forecast to increase substantially over the next 50–100 years. Previous estimates of its radiative forcing per unit concentration have differed significantly 25%. This paper uses a two-step approach to resolve this discrepancy. In the first step six independent absorption cross section datasets are analysed. We find that, for the integrated cross section in the spectral bands that contribute most to the radiative forcing, the differences between the various datasets are typically smaller than 5% and that the dependence on pressure and temperature is not significant. A “recommended'' HFC-134a infrared absorption spectrum was obtained based on the average band intensities of the strongest bands. In the second step, the “recommended'' HFC-134a spectrum was used in six different radiative transfer models to calculate the HFC-134a radiative forcing efficiency. The clear-sky instantaneous radiative forcing, using a single global and annual mean profile, differed by 8%, between the 6 models, and the latitudinally-resolved adjusted cloudy sky radiative forcing estimates differed by a similar amount.

Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

Exploring the construction of social class in educational discourse: the rational order of the nation state versus global uncertainties

This article aims to create intellectual space in which issues of social inequality and education can be analyzed and discussed in relation to the multifaceted and multi-levelled complexities of the modern world. It is divided into three sections. Section One locates the concept of social class in the context of the modern nation state during the period after the Second World War. Focusing particularly on the impact of 'Fordism' on social organization and cultural relations, it revisits the articulation of social justice issues in the United Kingdom, and the structures put into place at the time to alleviate educational and social inequalities. Section Two problematizes the traditional concept of social class in relation to economic, technological and sociocultural changes that have taken place around the world since the mid-1980s. In particular, it charts some of the changes to the international labour market and global patterns of consumption, and their collective impact on the re-constitution of class boundaries in 'developed countries'. This is juxtaposed with some of the major social effects of neo-classical economic policies in recent years on the sociocultural base in developing countries. It discusses some of the ways these inequalities are reflected in education. Section Three explores tensions between the educational ideals of the 'knowledge economy' and the discursive range of social inequalities that are emerging within and beyond the nation state. Drawing on key motifs identified throughout, the article concludes with a reassessment of the concept of social class within the global cultural economy. This is discussed in relation to some of the major equity and human rights issues in education today.

Precipitation and latent heating distributions from satellite passive microwave radiometry. Part I: improved method and uncertainties

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and nonconvective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud-resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain-rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in TMI instantaneous rain-rate estimates at 0.5°-resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm h−1 to 20% at 14 mm h−1. Errors in collocated spaceborne radar rain-rate estimates are roughly 50%–80% of the TMI errors at this resolution. The estimated algorithm random error in TMI rain rates at monthly, 2.5° resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm day−1) in comparison with the random error resulting from infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8%–35% at the same rain rate). Percentage errors resulting from sampling decrease with increasing rain rate, and sampling errors in latent heating rates follow the same trend. Averaging over 3 months reduces sampling errors in rain rates to 6%–15% at 5 mm day−1, with proportionate reductions in latent heating sampling errors.

Impacts of pollution and climate change on ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in the UK: analysis of uncertainties in two empirical niche models

A significant challenge in the prediction of climate change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity is quantifying the sources of uncertainty that emerge within and between different models. Statistical species niche models have grown in popularity, yet no single best technique has been identified reflecting differing performance in different situations. Our aim was to quantify uncertainties associated with the application of 2 complimentary modelling techniques. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were used to model the realised niche of ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in British peatlands. These models were then used to predict changes in Sphagnum cover between 2020 and 2050 based on projections of climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. Over 90% of the variation in the GLMM predictions was due to niche model parameter uncertainty, dropping to 14% for the GAMM. After having covaried out other factors, average variation in predicted values of Sphagnum cover across UK peatlands was the next largest source of variation (8% for the GLMM and 86% for the GAMM). The better performance of the GAMM needs to be weighed against its tendency to overfit the training data. While our niche models are only a first approximation, we used them to undertake a preliminary evaluation of the relative importance of climate change and nitrogen and sulphur deposition and the geographic locations of the largest expected changes in Sphagnum cover. Predicted changes in cover were all small (generally <1% in an average 4 m2 unit area) but also highly uncertain. Peatlands expected to be most affected by climate change in combination with atmospheric pollution were Dartmoor, Brecon Beacons and the western Lake District.

Stochastic parameterization: uncertainties from convection

In 2005, the ECMWF held a workshop on stochastic parameterisation, at which the convection was seen as being a key issue. That much is clear from the working group reports and particularly the statement from working group 1 that “it is clear that a stochastic convection scheme is desirable”. The present note aims to consider our current status in comparison with some of the issues raised and hopes expressed in that working group report.

Exploring the construction of social class in educational discourse: the rational order of the nation state vs. global uncertainties

This article aims to create intellectual space in which issues of social inequality and education can be analyzed and discussed in relation to the multifaceted and multi-levelled complexities of the modern world. It is divided into three sections. Section One locates the concept of social class in the context of the modern nation state during the period after the Second World War. Focusing particularly on the impact of ‘Fordism’ on social organization and cultural relations, it revisits the articulation of social justice issues in the United Kingdom, and the structures put into place at the time to alleviate educational and social inequalities. Section Two problematizes the traditional concept of social class in relation to economic, technological and sociocultural changes that have taken place around the world since the mid-1980s. In particular, it charts some of the changes to the international labour market and global patterns of consumption, and their collective impact on the re-constitution of class boundaries in ‘developed countries’. This is juxtaposed with some of the major social effects of neo-classical economic policies in recent years on the sociocultural base in developing countries. It discusses some of the ways these inequalities are reflected in education. Section Three explores tensions between the educational ideals of the ‘knowledge economy’ and the discursive range of social inequalities that are emerging within and beyond the nation state. Drawing on key motifs identified throughout, the article concludes with a reassessment of the concept of social class within the global cultural economy. This is discussed in relation to some of the major equity and human rights issues in education today.