Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes A occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. (c) 2007 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

Gendered networks and Mexican migration

In this paper, we investigate how the gendered origin of migrant networks (i.e. matrilineal vs. patrilineal) is associated with aspirations to migrate and subsequent migration behavior. Using longitudinal data from the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), we follow 3,923 married couples across 139 municipalities over the 2002-2005 period. We find that the networks of both the individual and her/his spouse are associated with aspiring to migrate to the United States. However, one’s own network matters most (i.e. matrilineal networks for women and patrilineal networks for men). On the other hand, in terms of behavior, only matrilineal networks predict a subsequent move to the U.S. for men and women/couples, who are assessed jointly. These findings suggest that our understanding of the role of migrant networks in perpetuating male-centered, labor migration does not necessarily translate once a union has formed. We make the case that future work would do well to account for not only the presence and composition of networks, but also their origin, which in certain circumstances may be the most relevant factor.

A sequential model for older workers' labor transitions after a health shock

In this work we study older workers'(50-64) labor force transitions after a health/disability shock. We find that the probability of keeping working decreases with both age and severity of the shock. Moreover, we find strong interactions between age and severity in the 50-64 age range and none in the 30-49 age range. Regarding demographics we find that being female and married reduce the probability of keeping work. On the contrary, being main breadwinner, education and skill levels increase it. Interestingly, the effect of some demographics changes its sign when we look at transitions from inactivity to work. This is the case of being married or having a working spouse. Undoubtedly, leisure complementarities should play a role in the latter case. Since the data we use contains a very detailed information on disabilities, we are able to evaluate the marginal effect of each type of disability either in the probability of keeping working or in returning back to work. Some of these results may have strong policy implications.

Intimate Partner Violence Against Pregnant Women: Study About The Repercussions On The Obstetric And Neonatal Results

This observational, descriptive and analytic study aimed to identify the prevalence of IPV cases among pregnant women and classify them according to the type and frequency; identify the obstetric and neonatal results and their associations with the intimate partner violence (IPV) occurrence in the current pregnancy. It was developed with 232 pregnant women who had prenatal care at a public maternity hospital. Data were collected via structured interview and in the patients’ charts and analyzed through the statistic software SAS® 9.0. Among the participants, 15.5% suffered IPV during pregnancy, among that 14.7% suffered psychological violence, 5.2% physical violence and 0.4% sexual violence. Women who did not desire the pregnancy had more chances of suffering IPV (p<0.00; OR=4.32 and 95% CI [1.77 – 10.54]). With regards to the obstetric and neonatal repercussions, there was no statistical association between the variables investigated. Thus, for the study participants there were no negative obstetric and neonatal repercussions related to IPV during pregnancy.

Intimate partner violence against pregnant women: the environment according to Levine's nursing theory

Abstract OBJECTIVE Analyzing the elements that compose the environment of pregnant women who have experienced intimate partner violence in the light of Levine's Nursing Theory. METHOD A qualitative, descriptive study conducted from September to January 2012, with nine pregnant women in a Municipal Health Center in Rio de Janeiro. The interviews were semi-structured and individual. The theoretical framework was based on Levine's Nursing Theory. RESULTS Thematic analysis evidenced the elements that composed the external environment, such as violence perpetrated by intimate partners before and during pregnancy, violence in childhood and adolescence, alcohol consumption and drug use by the partner, unemployment, low education and economic dependency, which affected health and posed risks to the pregnancy. CONCLUSION Violence perpetrated by an intimate partner was the main external factor that influenced the internal environment with repercussions on health. This theory represents a tool in nursing care which will aid in detecting cases and the fight against violence.

A sequential model for older workers’ labor transitions after a health shock

In this work we study older workers (50 64) labor force transitions after a health/disability shock. We find that the probability of keeping working decreases with both age and severity of the shock. Moreover, we find strong interactions between age and severity in the 50 64 age range and none in the 30 49 age range. Regarding demographics we find that being female and married reduce the probability of keeping work. On the contrary, being main breadwinner, education and skill levels increase it. Interestingly, the effect of some demographics changes its sign when we look at transitions from inactivity to work. This is the case of being married or having a working spouse. Undoubtedly, leisure complementarities should play a role in the latter case. Since the data we use contains a very detailed information on disabilities, we are able to evaluate the marginal effect of each type of disability either in the probability of keeping working or in returning back to work. Some of these results may have strong policy implications.

Getting Ready to Retire: Health Insurance Issues, December 2006

Before making the decision to retire, understand the health insurance options available to you (and your spouse if you are married). Which questions you need to ask depends on: • how old you are. • how old your spouse is. • whether you or your spouse is eligible for Medicare. • whether you or your spouse will continue to be employed. • how many employees the employer has.

Two-stage, extreme albitization of A-type granites from Rajasthan, NW India

Albitization is a common process during which hydrothermal fluids convert plagioclase and/or K-feldspar into nearly pure albite; however, its specific mechanism in granitoids is not well understood. The c. 1700 Ma A-type metaluminous ferroan granites in the Khetri complex of Rajasthan, NW India, have been albitized to a large extent by two metasomatic fronts, an initial transformation of oligoclase to nearly pure albite and a subsequent replacement of microcline by albite, with sharp contacts between the microcline-bearing and microcline-free zones. Albitization has bleached the original pinkish grey granite and turned it white. The mineralogical changes include transformation of oligoclase (similar to An(12)) and microcline (similar to Or(95)) to almost pure albite (similar to An(0 center dot 5-2)), amphibole from potassian ferropargasite (X-Fe 0 center dot 84-0 center dot 86) to potassic hastingsite (X-Fe 0 center dot 88-0 center dot 97) and actinolite (X-Fe 0 center dot 32-0 center dot 67), and biotite from annite (X-Fe 0 center dot 71-0 center dot 74) to annite (X-Fe 0 center dot 90-0 center dot 91). Whole-rock isocon diagrams show that, during albitization, the granites experienced major hydration, slight gain in Si and major gain in Na, whereas K, Mg, Fe and Ca were lost along with Rb, Ba, Sr, Zn, light rare earth elements and U. Whole-rock Sm-Nd isotope data plot on an apparent isochron of 1419 +/- 98 Ma and reveal significant disturbance and at least partial resetting of the intrusion age. Severe scatter in the whole-rock Rb-Sr isochron plot reflects the extreme Rb loss in the completely albitized samples, effectively freezing Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios in the albite granites at very high values (0 center dot 725-0 center dot 735). This indicates either infiltration of highly radiogenic Sr from the country rock or, more likely, radiogenic ingrowth during a considerable time lag (estimated to be at least 300 Myr) between original intrusion and albitization. The albitization took place at similar to 350-400 degrees C. It was caused by the infiltration of an ascending hydrothermal fluid that had acquired high Na/K and Na/Ca ratios during migration through metamorphic rocks at even lower temperatures in the periphery of the plutons. Oxygen isotope ratios increase from delta O-18 = 7 parts per thousand in the original granite to values of 9-10 parts per thousand in completely albitized samples, suggesting that the fluid had equilibrated with surrounding metamorphosed crust. A metasomatic model, using chromatographic theory of fluid infiltration, explains the process for generating the observed zonation in terms of a leading metasomatic front where oligoclase of the original granite is converted to albite, and a second, trailing front where microcline is also converted to albite. The temperature gradients driving the fluid infiltration may have been produced by the high heat production of the granites themselves. The confinement of the albitized granites along the NE-SW-trending Khetri lineament and the pervasive nature of the albitization suggest that the albitizing fluids possibly originated during reactivation of the lineament. More generally, steady-state temperature gradients induced by the high internal heat production of A-type granites may provide the driving force for similar metasomatic and ore-forming processes in other highly enriched granitoid bodies.

Life-time redistribution effects of the Spanish public pension system

The paper analyses the inter and intragenerational redistribution effects ofthe public pensions system in Spain. This is achieved by first comparing the expected present value of life-time income transfers (PVT) and internalrates of return (IRR) of different population cohorts. Secondly, we study the intragenerational aspects of the Spanish public pensions by calculating PVTs the IRRs for workers of different categories, grouped by earnings, gender and marital status.The results obtained show the nature of the important intergenerational effects of the Social Security System in Spain. The oldest 1935 cohort clearlybenefits in relation to the youngest 1965 cohort. This is basically due to thegap between current wages and the contribution bases established in the 60s and 70s in Spain during the early stages of the Social Security System, and to the worsening shortfall in Social Security funding, combined with the longer of life expectancy.In addition, intragenerational effects exist by income levels. For contributors who pay between the minimum and the maximum allowable contribution bases, net transfers and rates of return are higher in actuarial terms for high incomecontributors. The social security `dealï is again more profitable for highincome individuals since they contribute at the maximum basis, with respect tolow income contributors at the minimum basis. This is due to the late entry and a higher survival rate for high income contributors.The system tends to favour women, given that they generally live longer than men and this factor is only partially offset by their lower wages. Married males, given the fact that they have longer life expectancy and leave a pension to their spouse, obtain higher present net transfers too than do single contributors.We close the paper with some comments on the slight impact and moderate effects of proposals for Social Security reform and on how these may change the previously observed redistribution effects.

Interfacial instabilities of a fluid annulus in a rotating Hele-Shaw cell

We have studied the interfacial instabilities experienced by a liquid annulus as it moves radially in a circular Hele-Shaw cell rotating with angular velocity Omega. The instability of the leading interface (oil displacing air) is driven by the density difference in the presence of centrifugal forcing, while the instability of the trailing interface (air displacing oil) is driven by the large viscosity contrast. A linear stability analysis shows that the stability of the two interfaces is coupled through the pressure field already at a linear level. We have performed experiments in a dry cell and in a cell coated with a thin fluid layer on each plate, and found that the stability depends substantially on the wetting conditions at the leading interface. Our experimental results of the number of fingers resulting from the instability compare well with the predictions obtained through a numerical integration of the coupled equations derived from a linear stability analysis. Deep in the nonlinear regime we observe the emission of liquid droplets through the formation of thin filaments at the tip of outgrowing fingers.

Particle creation in a colliding plane wave spacetime: Wave packet quantization

We use wave packet mode quantization to compute the creation of massless scalar quantum particles in a colliding plane wave spacetime. The background spacetime represents the collision of two gravitational shock waves followed by trailing gravitational radiation which focus into a Killing-Cauchy horizon. The use of wave packet modes simplifies the problem of mode propagation through the different spacetime regions which was previously studied with the use of monochromatic modes. It is found that the number of particles created in a given wave packet mode has a thermal spectrum with a temperature which is inversely proportional to the focusing time of the plane waves and which depends on the mode trajectory.

Upper Triassic to Cretaceous radiolaria from Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica - The Mesquito composite oceanic terrane

We propose a new terrane subdivision of Nicaragua and Northern Costa Rica, based on Upper Triassic to Upper Cretaceous radiolarian biochronology of ribbon radiolarites, the newly studied Siuna Serpentinite Mélange, and published 40Ar/39Ar dating and geochemistry of mafic and ultramafic igneous rock units of the area. The new Mesquito Composite Oceanic Terrane (MCOT) comprises the southern half of the Chortis Block, that was assumed to be a continental fragment of N-America. The MCOT is defined by 4 corner localities characterized by ultramafic and mafic oceanic rocks and radiolarites of Late Triassic, Jurassic and Early Cretaceous age: 1. The Siuna Serpentinite Mélange (NE-Nicaragua), 2. The El Castillo Mélange (Nicaragua/Costa Rica border), 3.The Santa Elena Ultramafics (N-Costa Rica) and, 4. DSDP Legs 67/84. 1. The Siuna Serpentinite Mélange contains, high pressure metamorphic mafics and Middle Jurassic (Bajocian-Bathonian) radiolarites in original, sedimentary contact with arc-metandesites. The Siuna Mélange also contains Upper Jurassic black detrital chert formed in a marginal (fore-arc?) basin shortly before subduction. A phengite 40Ar/39Ar -cooling age dates the exhumation of the high pressure rocks as 139 Ma (earliest Cretaceous). 2. The El Castillo Mélange comprises a radiolarite block tectonically embedded in serpentinite that yielded a diverse Rhaetian (latest Triassic) radiolarian assemblage, the oldest fossils recovered so far from S-Central America. 3. The Santa Elena Ultramafics of N-Costa Rica together with the serpentinite outcrops near El Castillo (2) in Southern Nicaragua, are the southernmost outcrops of the MCOT. The Santa Elena Unit (3) itself is still undated, but it is thrust onto the middle Cretaceous Santa Rosa Accretionary Complex (SRAC), that contains Lower to Upper Jurassic, highly deformed radiolarite blocks, probably reworked from the MCOT, which was the upper plate with respect to the SRAC. 4. Serpentinites, metagabbros and basalts have long been known from DSDP Leg 67/84 (3), drilled off Guatemala in the Nicaragua-Guatemala forearc basement. They have been restudied and reveal 40Ar/39Ar dated Upper Triassic to middle Cretaceous enriched Ocean Island Basalts and Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous depleted Island arc rocks of probable Pacific origin. The area between localities 1-4 is largely covered by Tertiary to Recent arcs, but we suspect that its basement is made of oceanic/accreted terranes. Earthquake seismic studies indicate an ill-defined, shallow Moho in this area. The MCOT covers most of Nicaragua and could extend to Guatemala to the W and form the Lower (southern) Nicaragua Rise to the NE. Some basement complexes of Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico may also belong to the MCOT. The Nicoya Complex s. str. has been regarded as an example of Caribbean crust and the Caribbean Large Igneous Province (CLIP). However, 40Ar/39Ar - dates on basalts and intrusives indicate ages as old as Early Cretaceous. Highly deformed Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous radiolarites occur as blocks within younger intrusives and basalts. Our interpretation is that radiolarites became first accreted to the MCOT, then became reworked into the Nicoya Plateau in Late Cretaceous times. This implies that the Nicoya Plateau formed along the Pacific edge of the MCOT, independent form the CLIP and most probably unrelated with he Galapagos hotspot. No Jurassic radiolarite, no older sediment age than Coniacian-Santonian, and no older 40Ar/39Ar age than 95 Ma is known from S-Central America between SE of Nicoya and Colombia. For us this area represents the trailing edge of the CLIP s. str.

The Caribbean-North America-Cocos Triple Junction and the dynamics of the Polochic-Motagua fault systems: Pull-up and zipper models

The Polochic-Motagua fault systems (PMFS) are part of the sinistral transform boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. To the west, these systems interact with the subduction zone of the Cocos plate, forming a subduction-subduction-transform triple junction. The North American plate moves westward relative to the Caribbean plate. This movement does not affect the geometry of the subducted Cocos plate, which implies that deformation is accommodated entirely in the two overriding plates. Structural data, fault kinematic analysis, and geomorphic observations provide new elements that help to understand the late Cenozoic evolution of this triple junction. In the Miocene, extension and shortening occurred south and north of the Motagua fault, respectively. This strain regime migrated northward to the Polochic fault after the late Miocene. This shift is interpreted as a ``pull-up'' of North American blocks into the Caribbean realm. To the west, the PMFS interact with a trench-parallel fault zone that links the Tonala fault to the Jalpatagua fault. These faults bound a fore-arc sliver that is shared by the two overriding plates. We propose that the dextral Jalpatagua fault merges with the sinistral PMFS, leaving behind a suturing structure, the Tonala fault. This tectonic ``zipper'' allows the migration of the triple junction. As a result, the fore-arc sliver comes into contact with the North American plate and helps to maintain a linear subduction zone along the trailing edge of the Caribbean plate. All these processes currently make the triple junction increasingly diffuse as it propagates eastward and inland within both overriding plates.

Insights into the biogeographical history of the Lower Guinea Forest Domain: evidence for the role of refugia in the intraspecific differentiation of Aucoumea klaineana.

Determining the biogeographical histories of rainforests is central to our understanding of the present distribution of tropical biodiversity. Ice age fragmentation of central African rainforests strongly influenced species distributions. Elevated areas characterized by higher species richness and endemism have been postulated to be Pleistocene forest refugia. However, it is often difficult to separate the effects of history and of present-day ecological conditions on diversity patterns at the interspecific level. Intraspecific genetic variation could yield new insights into history, because refugia hypotheses predict patterns not expected on the basis of contemporary environmental dynamics. Here, we test geographically explicit hypotheses of vicariance associated with the presence of putative refugia and provide clues about their location. We intensively sampled populations of Aucoumea klaineana, a forest tree sensitive to forest fragmentation, throughout its geographical range. Characterizing variation at 10 nuclear microsatellite loci, we were able to obtain phylogeographic data of unprecedented detail for this region. Using Bayesian clustering approaches, we demonstrated the presence of four differentiated genetic units. Their distribution matched that of forest refugia postulated from patterns of species richness and endemism. Our data also show differences in diversity dynamics at leading and trailing edges of the species' shifting distribution. Our results confirm predictions based on refugia hypotheses and cannot be explained on the basis of present-day ecological conditions.

Vécu et adaptation des couples âgés séparés par l'entrée en institution de l'un des conjoints.

Cette thèse de doctorat porte sur le vécu et l'adaptation des couples âgés séparés par l'entrée de l'un des conjoints en institution. Notre démarche se fonde sur le paradigme compréhensif en sciences humaines. Nous avons rencontré sept couples dont l'un des conjoints vivait dans un Etablissement Médico-Social (EMS) de Suisse Romande, alors que l'autre continuait de vivre dans la communauté. Pour chaque situation, nous avons mené une interview individuelle de chacun des conjoints ainsi qu'une interview de couple. Nous avons effectué une analyse thématique du discours des interviewés. En outre, adoptant une perspective à la fois scientifique et clinique, nous avons étudié la dynamique conjugale des couples. Enfin, nous avons élaboré une typologie des différentes trajectoires de ces couples, en mettant en évidence les liens entre la dynamique de couple antérieure à l'hébergement, le vécu du moment de l'hébergement et le vécu lors des interviews. Nous avons montré le rôle central de l'ambivalence, vis-à-vis de la relation conjugale ou vis-à-vis de l'hébergement, dans les difficultés d'adaptation des couples à leur nouvelle situation de vie. -- This thesis is about the experience and adaptation of older couples separated by the accommodation of one spouse in a specialised institution. Our approach is based on the comprehensive paradigm in human sciences. We have met seven couples, of which one spouse was living in an institution (EMS) in the French speaking part of Switzerland, as the other spouse was still living in the community. In every situations, we have interviewed each spouse individually and both spouses together. We have carried out a thematic analysis of the discourses. Moreover, taking a scientific as well as a clinical perspective, we have studied the spousal dynamics of the couples. Finally, we have elaborated a typology of couples' trajectories, from earlier spousal dynamics to their experience of the transition and their experience in the time of the interviews. We have showed the crucial role of ambivalence, towards the couple relation or towards the accommodation, in couples' difficulties to adapt to their new living situation.