Apocalypses. Prophecies, Cults, and Millennial Beliefs through the Ages by Eugen Weber (book review)

Review of Eugen Weber: Apocalypses. Prophecies, Cults, and Millennial Beliefs through the Ages. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 2000.

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Popular beliefs regarding the treatment of senile cataract

OBJECTIVE: To identify popular beliefs regarding the treatment of senile cataract in patients enrolled in the community health programs on eye rehabilitation. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was carried out using an interview questionnaire that was applied to 776 subjects drawn from a non-probabilistic sample in five cities of the state of São Paulo. The sample was made up of 47.2% males and 52.8% females, aged 50 to 96 years (average age 71.6 years). RESULTS: Of the total of subjects studied, 41.9% had never attended school, and 78.5% were no longer in the employment market. Most (85.1%) credited the sight restoration to cataract surgery. Among those unconvinced, 47.4% asserted that sight restoration depended only on God's will. A greater proportion of women than men (p 0.0000) believed in the association of cataract and menopause, maternity, and menstrual periods and they admitted using herbal and rose teas for treating cataract. CONCLUSIONS: Misbeliefs related to the causes and treatment of senile cataract were identified, most probably of sociocultural basis, indicating the need of education on the subject.

Detectives with pimples: how teen noir is crossing the frontiers of the traditional noir films

In the last ten years, teen noir movies and series — such as Donnie Darko (2001), Brick (2005), or Veronica Mars (2004-2007) — have become increasingly popular among audiences, both in the USA and in Europe, and aroused the curiosity of critics. These teen noir adventures present darker themes and technical features that distinguish them from numerous productions aiming at young adults. Their narrative and aesthetic characteristics reinvent and subvert the tradition of classic noir movies of the forties and fifties, thus generating a sense of novelty. In this article, I focus my attention on Veronica Mars, a famous teen noir series, created by Rob Thomas, to examine: a) the teen noir themes; b) the new profile and role of the private investigator; c) the empowerment of girls/young women; d) razor-sharp dialogues; e) intertextual references to old- school noir movies. In order to do so, resort to the research of specialists in the field of neo noir, such as Mark Conrad, Foster Hirsch, or Roz Kaveney. My main goal is to prove that a new (sub)genre is slowly emerging and revivifying teen cinema.

Mould and yeast identification in archival settings: preliminary results on the use of traditional methods and molecular biology options in Portuguese archives

This project was developed to fully assess the indoor air quality in archives and libraries from a fungal flora point of view. It uses classical methodologies such as traditional culture media – for the viable fungi – and modern molecular biology protocols, especially relevant to assess the non-viable fraction of the biological contaminants. Denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC) has emerged as an alternative to denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and has already been applied to the study of a few bacterial communities. We propose the application of DHPLC to the study of fungal colonization on paper-based archive materials. This technology allows for the identification of each component of a mixture of fungi based on their genetic variation. In a highly complex mixture of microbial DNA this method can be used simply to study the population dynamics, and it also allows for sample fraction collection, which can, in many cases, be immediately sequenced, circumventing the need for cloning. Some examples of the methodological application are shown. Also applied is fragment length analysis for the study of mixed Candida samples. Both of these methods can later be applied in various fields, such as clinical and sand sample analysis. So far, the environmental analyses have been extremely useful to determine potentially pathogenic/toxinogenic fungi such as Stachybotrys sp., Aspergillus niger, Aspergillus fumigatus, and Fusarium sp. This work will hopefully lead to more accurate evaluation of environmental conditions for both human health and the preservation of documents.

Patterns, mathematics and culture : the search for symmetry in Azorean sidewalks and traditional crafts

In the hustle and bustle of daily life, how often do we stop to pay attention to the tiny details around us, some of them right beneath our feet? Such is the case of interesting decorative patterns that can be found in squares and sidewalks beautified by the traditional Portuguese pavement. Its most common colors are the black and the white of the basalt and the limestone used; the result is a large variety and richness in patterns. No doubt, it is worth devoting some of our time enjoying the lovely Portuguese pavement, a true worldwide attraction. The interesting patterns found on the Azorean handicrafts are as fascinating and substantial from the cultural point of view. Patterns existing in the sidewalks and crafts can be studied from the mathematical point of view, thus allowing a thorough and rigorous cataloguing of such heritage. The mathematical classification is based on the concept of symmetry, a unifying principle of geometry. Symmetry is a unique tool for helping us relate things that at first glance may appear to have no common ground at all. By interlacing different fields of endeavor, the mathematical approach to sidewalks and crafts is particularly interesting, and an excellent source of inspiration for the development of highly motivated recreational activities. This text is an invitation to visit the nine islands of the Azores and to identify a wide range of patterns, namely rosettes and friezes, by getting to know different arts and crafts and sidewalks.

Cluster analysis using affinity aoefficient in order to identify religious beliefs profiles

International Scientific Forum, ISF 2013, ISF 2013, 12-14 December 2013, Tirana.

Beliefs and attitudes about endemic dental fluorosis among adolescents in rural Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To understand beliefs and attitudes about fluorosis among young people living in a rural area. METHODOLOGICAL PROCEDURES: Qualitative study consisting of semi-structured interviews with 23 adolescents with dental fluorosis, 14 teachers and three health authorities in the city of São Francisco, Southeastern Brazil, in 2002. Content analysis and social representation theory were applied. ANALYSIS OF RESULTS: The organoleptic characteristics of carbonates that affect groundwater (salty flavor, whitish coloration, and turbidity) associated with negative aspects of household use of this water are considered a cause of mottled enamel. Even after contact with researchers who investigated this phenomenon and helped find a solution for this condition, the local population is still unwilling to accept fluoride as the cause of the problem and does not fully agree to use water from other sources because they are afraid of the quality of water. CONCLUSIONS: Misperceptions of the causes of dental fluorosis and water treatment costs compromise the implementation of uncontaminated surface water supplies. Health education strategies are required in parallel with solutions for securing water supply in drought-ravaged areas.

Nutritional value and influence of the thermal processing on a traditional Portuguese fermented sausage (alheira)

Alheiras are a traditional, smoked, fermented meat sausage, produced in Portugal, with an undeniable cultural and gastronomic legacy. In this study, we assessed the nutritional value of this product, as well as the influence of different types of thermal processing. Alheiras from Mirandela were submitted to six different procedures: microwave, skillet, oven, charcoal grill, electric fryer and electric grill. Protein, fat, carbohydrate, minerals, NaCl, and cholesterol contents, as well as fatty acid profile were evaluated. The results show that alheiras are not hypercaloric but an unbalanced foodstuff (high levels of proteins and lipids) and the type of processing has a major impact on their nutritional value. Charcoal grill is the healthiest option: less fat (12.5 g/100 g) and cholesterol (29.3 mg/100 g), corresponding to a lower caloric intake (231.8 kcal, less 13% than the raw ones). Inversely, fried alheiras presented the worst nutritional profile, with the highest levels of fat (18.1 g/100 g) and cholesterol (76.0 g/100 g).