Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

Revival of oscillation from mean-field-induced death : Theory and experiment

Submitted ACKNOWLEDGMENTS T. B. acknowledges the financial support from SERB, Department of Science and Technology (DST), India [Project Grant No.: SB/FTP/PS-005/2013]. D. G. acknowledges DST, India, for providing support through the INSPIRE fellowship. J. K. acknowledges Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 14.Z50.31.0033 with Institute of Applied Physics RAS).

The elasticity and failure of fluid-filled cellular solids: Theory and experiment

We extend and apply theories of filled foam elasticity and failure to recently available data on foods. The predictions of elastic modulus and failure mode dependence on internal pressure and on wall integrity are borne out by photographic evidence of distortion and failure under compressive loading and under the localized stress applied by a knife blade, and by mechanical data on vegetables differing only in their turgor pressure. We calculate the dry modulus of plate-like cellular solids and the cross over between dry-like and fully fluid-filled elastic response. The bulk elastic properties of limp and aging cellular solids are calculated for model systems and compared with our mechanical data, which also show two regimes of response. The mechanics of an aged, limp beam is calculated, thus offering a practical procedure for comparing experiment and theory. This investigation also thereby offers explanations of the connection between turgor pressure and crispness and limpness of cellular materials.

Groups, information theory, and Einstein's likelihood principle

We propose a unifying picture where the notion of generalized entropy is related to information theory by means of a group-theoretical approach. The group structure comes from the requirement that an entropy be well defined with respect to the composition of independent systems, in the context of a recently proposed generalization of the Shannon-Khinchin axioms. We associate to each member of a large class of entropies a generalized information measure, satisfying the additivity property on a set of independent systems as a consequence of the underlying group law. At the same time, we also show that Einstein's likelihood function naturally emerges as a byproduct of our informational interpretation of (generally nonadditive) entropies. These results confirm the adequacy of composable entropies both in physical and social science contexts.

Applying ontologies to business and systems modelling techniques and perspectives: Lessons learned

For many years in the area of business systems analysis and design, practitioners and researchers alike have been searching for some comprehensive basis on which to evaluate, compare, and engineer techniques that are promoted for use in the modelling of systems' requirements. To date, while many frameworks, factors, and facets have been forthcoming, none appear to be based on a sound theory. In light of this dilemma, over the last 10 years, attention has been devoted by researchers to the use of ontology to provide some theoretical basis for the advancement of the business systems modelling discipline. This paper outlines how we have used a particular ontology for this purpose over the last five years. In particular we have learned that the understandability and the applicability of the selected ontology must be clear for IS professionals, the results of any ontological evaluation must be tempered by economic efficiency considerations of the stakeholders involved, and ontologies may have to be focused for the business purpose and type of user involved in the modelling situation.

Ex ante evaluations of alternate data structures for end user queries: Theory and experimental test

The data structure of an information system can significantly impact the ability of end users to efficiently and effectively retrieve the information they need. This research develops a methodology for evaluating, ex ante, the relative desirability of alternative data structures for end user queries. This research theorizes that the data structure that yields the lowest weighted average complexity for a representative sample of information requests is the most desirable data structure for end user queries. The theory was tested in an experiment that compared queries from two different relational database schemas. As theorized, end users querying the data structure associated with the less complex queries performed better Complexity was measured using three different Halstead metrics. Each of the three metrics provided excellent predictions of end user performance. This research supplies strong evidence that organizations can use complexity metrics to evaluate, ex ante, the desirability of alternate data structures. Organizations can use these evaluations to enhance the efficient and effective retrieval of information by creating data structures that minimize end user query complexity.

Selecting optimal instantiations of data models - Theory and validation of an ex ante approach

The schema of an information system can significantly impact the ability of end users to efficiently and effectively retrieve the information they need. Obtaining quickly the appropriate data increases the likelihood that an organization will make good decisions and respond adeptly to challenges. This research presents and validates a methodology for evaluating, ex ante, the relative desirability of alternative instantiations of a model of data. In contrast to prior research, each instantiation is based on a different formal theory. This research theorizes that the instantiation that yields the lowest weighted average query complexity for a representative sample of information requests is the most desirable instantiation for end-user queries. The theory was validated by an experiment that compared end-user performance using an instantiation of a data structure based on the relational model of data with performance using the corresponding instantiation of the data structure based on the object-relational model of data. Complexity was measured using three different Halstead metrics: program length, difficulty, and effort. For a representative sample of queries, the average complexity using each instantiation was calculated. As theorized, end users querying the instantiation with the lower average complexity made fewer semantic errors, i.e., were more effective at composing queries. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Critical Temperature of a Trapped Bose Gas: Comparison of Theory and Experiment

We apply the projected Gross-Pitaevskii equation (PGPE) formalism to the experimental problem of the shift in critical temperature T-c of a harmonically confined Bose gas as reported in Gerbier , Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 030405 (2004). The PGPE method includes critical fluctuations and we find the results differ from various mean-field theories, and are in best agreement with experimental data. To unequivocally observe beyond mean-field effects, however, the experimental precision must either improve by an order of magnitude, or consider more strongly interacting systems. This is the first application of a classical field method to make quantitative comparison with experiment.

Neural Network Modelling with Input Uncertainty: Theory and Application

It is generally assumed when using Bayesian inference methods for neural networks that the input data contains no noise. For real-world (errors in variable) problems this is clearly an unsafe assumption. This paper presents a Bayesian neural network framework which accounts for input noise provided that a model of the noise process exists. In the limit where the noise process is small and symmetric it is shown, using the Laplace approximation, that this method adds an extra term to the usual Bayesian error bar which depends on the variance of the input noise process. Further, by treating the true (noiseless) input as a hidden variable, and sampling this jointly with the network’s weights, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, it is demonstrated that it is possible to infer the regression over the noiseless input. This leads to the possibility of training an accurate model of a system using less accurate, or more uncertain, data. This is demonstrated on both the, synthetic, noisy sine wave problem and a real problem of inferring the forward model for a satellite radar backscatter system used to predict sea surface wind vectors.

Transducer diffraction theory and development of an ultrasonic tomogram

The work described in this thesis is the development of an ultrasonic tomogram to provide outlines of cross-sections of the ulna in vivo. This instrument, used in conjunction with X-ray densitometry previously developed in this department, would provide actual bone mineral density to a high resolution. It was hoped that the accuracy of the plot obtained from the tomogram would exceed that of existing ultrasonic techniques by about five times. Repeat measurements with these instruments to follow bone mineral changes would involve very low X-ray doses. A theoretical study has been made of acoustic diffraction, using a geometrical transform applicable to the integration of three different Green's functions, for axisymmetric systems. This has involved the derivation of one of these in a form amenable to computation. It is considered that this function fits the boundary conditions occurring in medical ultrasonography more closely than those used previously. A three dimensional plot of the pressure field using this function has been made for a ring transducer, in addition to that for disc transducers using all three functions. It has been shown how the theory may be extended to investigate the nature and magnitude of the particle velocity, at any point in the field, for the three functions mentioned. From this study. a concept of diffraction fronts has been developed, which has made it possible to determine energy flow also in a diffracting system. Intensity has been displayed in a manner similar to that used for pressure. Plots have been made of diffraction fronts and energy flow direction lines.

Philosophy, theory, and practice of green operations management

This paper proposes a more profound discussion of the philosophical underpins of sustainability than currently exists in the MOT literature and considers their influence on the construction of the theories on green operations and technology management. Ultimately, it also debates the link between theory and practice on this subject area. The paper is derived from insights gained in three research projects completed during the past twelve years, primarily involving the first author. From 2000 to 2002, an investigation using scenario analysis, aimed at reducing atmospheric pollution in urban centres by substituting natural gas for petrol and diesel, provided the first set of insights about public policy, environmental impacts, investment analysis, and technological feasibility. The second research project, from 2003 to 2005, using a survey questionnaire, was aimed at improving environmental performance in livestock farming and explored the issues of green supply chain scope, environmental strategy and priorities. Finally, the third project, from 2006 to 2011, investigated environmental decisions in manufacturing organisations through case study research and examined the underlying sustainability drivers and decision-making processes. By integrating the findings and conclusions from these projects, the link between philosophy, theory, and practice of green operations and technology management is debated. The findings from all these studies show that the philosophical debate seems to have little influence on theory building so far. For instance, although ‘sustainable development’ emphasises ‘meeting the needs of current and future generation’, no theory links essentiality and environmental impacts. Likewise, there is a weak link between theory and the practical issues of green operations and technology management. For example, the well-known ‘life-cycle analysis’ has little application in many cases because the life cycle of products these days is dispersed within global production and consumption systems and there are different stakeholders for each life cycle stage. The results from this paper are relevant to public policy making and corporate environmental strategy and decision making. Most of the past and current studies in the subject of green operations and sustainability management deal with only a single sustainability dimension at any one time. Here the value and originality of this paper lies in its integration between philosophy, theory, and practice of green technology and operations management.

Stochastic Arithmetic Theory and Experiments

Stochastic arithmetic has been developed as a model for exact computing with imprecise data. Stochastic arithmetic provides confidence intervals for the numerical results and can be implemented in any existing numerical software by redefining types of the variables and overloading the operators on them. Here some properties of stochastic arithmetic are further investigated and applied to the computation of inner products and the solution to linear systems. Several numerical experiments are performed showing the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Secrecy Capacity Analysis Over κ–μ Fading Channels: Theory and Applications

In this paper, we consider the transmission of confidential information over a κ-μ fading channel in the presence of an eavesdropper who also experiences κ-μ fading. In particular, we obtain novel analytical solutions for the probability of strictly positive secrecy capacity (SPSC) and a lower bound of secure outage probability (SOPL) for independent and non-identically distributed channel coefficients without parameter constraints. We also provide a closed-form expression for the probability of SPSC when the μ parameter is assumed to take positive integer values. Monte-Carlo simulations are performed to verify the derived results. The versatility of the κ-μ fading model means that the results presented in this paper can be used to determine the probability of SPSC and SOPL for a large number of other fading scenarios, such as Rayleigh, Rice (Nakagamin), Nakagami-m, One-Sided Gaussian, and mixtures of these common fading models. In addition, due to the duality of the analysis of secrecy capacity and co-channel interference (CCI), the results presented here will have immediate applicability in the analysis of outage probability in wireless systems affected by CCI and background noise (BN). To demonstrate the efficacy of the novel formulations proposed here, we use the derived equations to provide a useful insight into the probability of SPSC and SOPL for a range of emerging wireless applications, such as cellular device-to-device, peer-to-peer, vehicle-to-vehicle, and body centric communications using data obtained from real channel measurements.

Ranganathan’s Layers of Classification Theory and the FASDA Model of Classification

Describes four waves of Ranganathan’s dynamic theory of classification. Outlines components that distinguish each wave, and porposes ways in which this understanding can inform systems design in the contemporary environment, particularly with regard to interoperability and scheme versioning. Ends with an appeal to better understanding the relationship between structure and semantics in faceted classification schemes and similar indexing languages.

Eulerian-Lagrangian definition of coarse bed-load transport: Theory and verification with low-cost inertial measurement units

Fluvial sediment transport is controlled by hydraulics, sediment properties and arrangement, and flow history across a range of time scales. This physical complexity has led to ambiguous definition of the reference frame (Lagrangian or Eulerian) in which sediment transport is analysed. A general Eulerian-Lagrangian approach accounts for inertial characteristics of particles in a Lagrangian (particle fixed) frame, and for the hydrodynamics in an independent Eulerian frame. The necessary Eulerian-Lagrangian transformations are simplified under the assumption of an ideal Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), rigidly attached at the centre of the mass of a sediment particle. Real, commercially available IMU sensors can provide high frequency data on accelerations and angular velocities (hence forces and energy) experienced by grains during entrainment and motion, if adequately customized. IMUs are subjected to significant error accu- mulation but they can be used for statistical parametrisation of an Eulerian-Lagrangian model, for coarse sediment particles and over the temporal scale of individual entrainment events. In this thesis an Eulerian-Lagrangian model is introduced and evaluated experimentally. Absolute inertial accelerations were recorded at a 4 Hz frequency from a spherical instrumented particle (111 mm diameter and 2383 kg/m3 density) in a series of entrainment threshold experiments on a fixed idealised bed. The grain-top inertial acceleration entrainment threshold was approximated at 44 and 51 mg for slopes 0.026 and 0.037 respectively. The saddle inertial acceleration entrainment threshold was at 32 and 25 mg for slopes 0.044 and 0.057 respectively. For the evaluation of the complete Eulerian-Lagrangian model two prototype sensors are presented: an idealised (spherical) with a diameter of 90 mm and an ellipsoidal with axes 100, 70 and 30 mm. Both are instrumented with a complete IMU, capable of sampling 3D inertial accelerations and 3D angular velocities at 50 Hz. After signal analysis, the results can be used to parametrize sediment movement but they do not contain positional information. The two sensors (spherical and ellipsoidal) were tested in a series of entrainment experiments, similar to the evaluation of the 111 mm prototype, for a slope of 0.02. The spherical sensor entrained at discharges of 24.8 ± 1.8 l/s while the same threshold for the ellipsoidal sensor was 45.2 ± 2.2 l/s. Kinetic energy calculations were used to quantify the particle-bed energy exchange under fluvial (discharge at 30 l/s) and non-fluvial conditions. All the experiments suggest that the effect of the inertial characteristics of coarse sediments on their motion is comparable to the effect hydrodynamic forces. The coupling of IMU sensors with advanced telemetric systems can lead to the tracking of Lagrangian particle trajectories, at a frequency and accuracy that will permit the testing of diffusion/dispersion models across the range of particle diameters.