Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

Perspectives de l'inactivation des pathogènes: quand la fiction dépasse la réalité [Back to the future: a fiction dealing with pathogen inactivation of blood products].

AIM OF THE PAPER: Arouse the reflection with a fiction having a scientific appearance, presenting a late and unexpected complication of the universal inactivation of pathogens. CONCLUSION: Such a fiction story opens the debate on a series of fundamental questions that could be addressed during the paradigm shift that is expected by introducing universal pathogen inactivation of blood products.

Influence of the primary cleft palate closure on the future need for orthognathic surgery in unilateral cleft lip and palate patients.

The aim of the study was to determine the influence of the dissection of the palate during primary surgery and the type of orthognathic surgery needed in cases of unilateral total cleft. The review concerns 58 children born with a complete unilateral cleft lip and palate and treated between 1994 and 2008 at the appropriate age for orthognathic surgery. This is a retrospective mixed-longitudinal study. Patients with syndromes or associated anomalies were excluded. All children were treated by the same orthodontist and by the same surgical team. Children are divided into 2 groups: the first group includes children who had conventional primary cleft palate repair during their first year of life, with extensive mucoperiosteal undermining. The second group includes children operated on according to the Malek surgical protocol. The soft palate is closed at the age of 3 months, and the hard palate at 6 months with minimal mucoperiosteal undermining. Lateral cephalograms at ages 9 and 16 years and surgical records were compared. The need for orthognathic surgery was more frequent in the first than in the second group (60% vs 47.8%). Concerning the type of orthognathic surgery performed, 2- or 3-piece Le Fort I or bimaxillary osteotomies were also less required in the first group. Palate surgery following the Malek procedure results in an improved and simplified craniofacial outcome. With a minimal undermining of palatal mucosa, we managed to reduce the amount of patients who required an orthognathic procedure. When this procedure was indicated, the surgical intervention was also greatly simplified.

The Future of the Deuteronomistic History

The present debate on the so-called "Deuteronomistic History" has become quite confusing and in recent years more and more scholars are inclined to deny the existence of a Deuteronomistic History as elaborated by Martin Noth or at least to modify this thesis radically. The contributions in this volume reflect the present state of discussion about the Deuteronomistic History. With one exception they have all been presented and discussed in three special sessions dedicated to "Deuteronomism" during the SBL International Meeting in Lausanne (July 1997). Three topics were treated: "The Future of the Deuteronomistic History", "Identity and Literary Strategies of the Deuteronomists", "Deuteronomism and the Hebrew Bible". The contributors are: R. Albertz, A.G. Auld, M. Bauks, W. Dietrich, D. Edelman, F. Garcia Lopez, E.A. Knauf, G. Knoppers, S.K. McKenzie, C. Nihan, T.C. Römer, N.H. Rösel, J. Van Seters and J. Vermeylen. Each contribution offers a valuable entry into one of the most important discussions of Old Testament scholarship at the end of the twentieth century.

Science education and popularization of science in the biomedical area: its role for the future of science and of society

This paper presents the main subjects discussed in the round-table: "Educational Base for Biomedical Research", during the International Symposium on Biomedical Research in the 21st century; two main aspects will be focused: (1) the importance of popularizing science in order to stimulate comprehension of the scientific process and progress, their critical thinking, citizenship and social commitment, mainly in the biomedical area, considering the new advances of knowledge and the resulting technology; (2) the importance to stimulate genuine scientific vocation among young people, by giving them opportunity to early experience scientific environment, throught the hands of well prepared master in a humanistic atmosphere.

Adopting the Future Consultation response document (MS Word 290 KB)

While for most children the best place to grow up is with their birth parents, others are unable to do so. Under the Children (Northern Ireland) Order 1995, the first duty of Health and Social Services Trusts, where children cannot live with their birth parents, is to seek a home for them with their extended famly. Finding a safe and caring new home for children with their wider family or friends allows them to keep important attachments and connections in their lives, and is therefore the preferred choice where it is possible. Where this is not possible, society has a clear responsibility to provide children with stability and permanence in their lives. Some children are placed in alternative forms of care. Adoption is traditionally a means of providing a permanent family for a small, but significant number of children who are unable to return to their birth parents. Adoption is, however, much wider than just the service provided to children. Adoption affects birth parents, prospective adopters, adoptive parents, siblings, grandparents and other relatives. The Department of Health Social Services and Public Safety believes that more can and should be done to reflect the complex needs of those affected by adoption. åÊ

Adopting the Future (PDF 865 KB)

While for most children the best place to grow up is with their birth parents, others are unable to do so. Under the Children (Northern Ireland) Order 1995, the first duty of Health and Social Services Trusts, where children cannot live with their birth parents, is to seek a home for them with their extended famly. Finding a safe and caring new home for children with their wider family or friends allows them to keep important attachments and connections in their lives, and is therefore the preferred choice where it is possible. Where this is not possible, society has a clear responsibility to provide children with stability and permanence in their lives. Some children are placed in alternative forms of care. Adoption is traditionally a means of providing a permanent family for a small, but significant number of children who are unable to return to their birth parents. Adoption is, however, much wider than just the service provided to children. Adoption affects birth parents, prospective adopters, adoptive parents, siblings, grandparents and other relatives. The Department of Health Social Services and Public Safety believes that more can and should be done to reflect the complex needs of those affected by adoption. åÊ

Adopting The Future - The Biggest Overhaul For Adoption In Years (PDF 65 KB)

Health Minister Paul Goggins has unveiled the proposed new approach to adoption, in Northern Ireland which will put children’s needs at the heart of the process.

Cancer Services - Investing for the Future (The Campbell Report) (PDF 1958 KB)

Report published by the DHSSPS in May 1996. The Cancer Working Group, chaired by the Chief Medical Officer Henrietta Campbell, highlighted the need for changes to cancer services and made a number of key recommendations for the future development of these services.

Fit For The Future - Proposals (PDF 66KB)

This Government came to power committed to reforming and modernising the health and personal social services (HPSS) and returning them to their founding principles and core values. The momentous political change which has taken pl ace in Northern Ireland over the last year means that the new Assembly will now be taking up that challenge. This paper is not a blueprint. It signals the direction in which the Government wishes to move, but it will quite properly be for the Assembly to take final decisions on the way forward. There are many difficult issues to be addressed and change cannot happen overnight. That is the challenge which faces the Assembly and the HPSS. I wish them every success in meeting it. åÊ åÊ