Probabilistic forecasts of the onset of the north Australian wet season

The amount and timing of early wet-season rainfall are important for the management of many agricultural industries in north Australia. With this in mind, a wet-season onset date is defined based on the accumulation of rainfall to a predefined threshold, starting from 1 September, for each square of a 1° gridded analysis of daily rainfall across the region. Consistent with earlier studies, the interannual variability of the onset dates is shown to be well related to the immediately preceding July-August Southern Oscillation index (SOI). Based on this relationship, a forecast method using logistic regression is developed to predict the probability that onset will occur later than the climatological mean date. This method is expanded to also predict the probabilities that onset will be later than any of a range of threshold dates around the climatological mean. When assessed using cross-validated hindcasts, the skill of the predictions exceeds that of climatological forecasts in the majority of locations in north Australia, especially in the Top End region, Cape York, and central Queensland. At times of strong anomalies in the July-August SOI, the forecasts are reliably emphatic. Furthermore, predictions using tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as the predictor are also tested. While short-lead (July-August predictor) forecasts are more skillful using the SOI, long-lead (May-June predictor) forecasts are more skillful using Pacific SSTs, indicative of the longer-term memory present in the ocean.

Swimming against the tide? Australian labour regulation and the fissured workplace

In The Fissured Workplace, David Weil dissects the ways in which ostensibly ‘large’ American businesses have come to shed direct employees and instead source their labour needs through a ‘complicated network of smaller business units’. As he notes, this has increased the profitability of these ‘lead’ businesses, at the expense of those who (ultimately) work for them: Wage setting and supervision shift from core businesses to a myriad of organizations, each operating under the rigorous standards of lead businesses but facing fierce competitive pressures. Although lead businesses set demanding goals and standards, and often detailed work practice requirements for subsidiary companies, the actual liability, oversight, and supervision of the workforce become the problem of one or more other organizations. And by replacing a direct employment relationship with a fissured workplace, employment itself becomes more precarious, with risk shifted onto smaller employers and individual workers, who are often cast in the role of independent businesses in their own right.

Proceedings of the 16th Australian Weeds Conference

Invitation to attend: On behalf of the organising committee of the 16th Australian Weeds Conference, we cordially invite you to attend this biannual conference to be held in Cairns, Australia, 19-22 May 2008. The conference will be hosted by the Weed Society of Queensland and has the theme of ‘Weed Management 2008 – hot topics in the tropics’. The conference will showcase recent advances in weed science, extension and policy across Australian and international communities and landscapes. The program for the conference includes plenary, oral, and poster sessions and trade exhibitors. The conference will appeal to anyone involved in weed R & D, management and extension and will be a great opportunity to build new networks and explore existing ones. Michael Widderick (conference chair)

Where to from Brahmans in the Northern Australian herd? Maintaining the economic benefit of earlier infusions of Bos indicus.

The economic performance of a terminal crossbreeding system based on Brahman cows and a tropically adapted composite herd were compared to a straightbred Brahman herd. All systems were targeted to meet specifications of the grass-finished Japanese market. The production system modelled represented a typical individual central Queensland integrated breeding/finishing enterprise or a northern Australian vertically integrated enterprise with separate breeding and finishing properties. Due mainly to a reduced age of turnoff of Crossbred and Composite sale animals and an improved weaning rate in the Composite herd, Crossbred and Composite herds returned a gross margin of $7 and $24 per Adult Equivalent (AE) respectively above that of the Brahman herd. The benefits of changing 25% of the existing 85% of Brahmans in the northern Australian herd to either Crossbreds or Composites over a 10-year period were also examined. With no premium for carcass quality in Crossbred and Composite sale animals, annual benefits were $16 M and $61 M for Crossbreds and Composites in 2013. The cumulative Present Value (PV) of this shift over the 10-year period was $88 M and $342 M respectively, discounted at 7%. When a 5c per kg premium for carcass quality was included, differences in annual benefits rose to $30 M and $75 M and cumulative PVs to $168 M and $421 M for Crossbreds and Composites respectively.

Population structure, effective population size and adverse effects of stocking in the endangered Australian eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei

Microsatellite markers were used to examine spatio-temporal genetic variation in the endangered eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei in the Clarence River system, eastern Australia. High levels of population structure were detected. A model-based clustering analysis of multilocus genotypes identified four populations that were highly differentiated by F-statistics (FST = 0· 09 − 0· 49; P < 0· 05), suggesting fragmentation and restricted dispersal particularly among upstream sites. Hatchery breeding programmes were used to re-establish locally extirpated populations and to supplement remnant populations. Bayesian and frequency-based analyses of hatchery fingerling samples provided evidence for population admixture in the hatchery, with the majority of parental stock sourced from distinct upstream sites. Comparison between historical and contemporary wild-caught samples showed a significant loss of heterozygosity (21%) and allelic richness (24%) in the Mann and Nymboida Rivers since the commencement of stocking. Fragmentation may have been a causative factor; however, temporal shifts in allele frequencies suggest swamping with hatchery-produced M. ikei has contributed to the genetic decline in the largest wild population. This study demonstrates the importance of using information on genetic variation and population structure in the management of breeding and stocking programmes, particularly for threatened species.

The extent of population genetic subdivision differs among four co-distributed shark species in the Indo-Australian archipelago

Background: The territorial fishing zones of Australia and Indonesia are contiguous to the north of Australia in the Timor and Arafura Seas and in the Indian Ocean to the north of Christmas Island. The area surrounding the shared boundary consists of a variety of bio-diverse marine habitats including shallow continental shelf waters, oceanic trenches and numerous offshore islands. Both countries exploit a variety of fisheries species, including whaler (Carcharhinus spp.) and hammerhead sharks (Sphyrna spp.). Despite their differences in social and financial arrangements, the two countries are motivated to develop complementary co-management practices to achieve resource sustainability. An essential starting point is knowledge of the degree of population subdivision, and hence fisheries stock status, in exploited species. Results: Populations of four commercially harvested shark species (Carcharhinus obscurus, Carcharhinus sorrah, Prionace glauca, Sphyrna lewini) were sampled from northern Australia and central Indonesia. Neutral genetic markers (mitochondrial DNA control region sequence and allelic variation at co-dominant microsatellite loci) revealed genetic subdivision between Australian and Indonesian populations of C. sorrah. Further research is needed to address the possibility of genetic subdivision among C. obscurus populations. There was no evidence of genetic subdivision for P. glauca and S. lewini populations, but the sampling represented a relatively small part of their distributional range. For these species, more detailed analyses of population genetic structure is recommended in the future. Conclusion: Cooperative management between Australia and Indonesia is the best option at present for P. glauca and S. lewini, while C. sorrah and C. obscurus should be managed independently. On-going research on these and other exploited shark and ray species is strongly recommended. Biological and ecological similarity between species may not be a predictor of population genetic structure, so species-specific studies are recommended to provide new data to assist with sustainable fisheries management.

Opetiopalpus scutellaris Panzer (Coleoptera: Cleridae: Korynetinae) established in the Western Australian wheatbelt

The status of the exotic clerid beetle Opetiopalpus scutellaris Panzer has been unclear due to the ambiguous nature of the single previous Australian record. Recent pheromone trapping at grain stores in Western Australia indicate that O. scutellaris is locally naturalised within the Western Australian wheatbelt. It is considered likely that the trapped O. scutellaris specimens originated from surrounding areas rather than being directly associated with grain.

Isolation and characterization of 21 polymorphic microsatellite loci in the iconic Australian lungfish, Neoceratodus forsteri, using the Ion Torrent next-generation sequencing platform

We isolated and characterized 21 microsatellite loci in the vulnerable and iconic Australian lungfish, Neoceratodus forsteri. Loci were screened across eight individuals from the Burnett River and 40 individuals from the Pine River. Genetic diversity was low with between one and six alleles per locus within populations and a maximum expected heterozygosity of 0.774. These loci will now be available to assess effective population sizes and genetic structure in N. forsteri across its natural range in South East Queensland, Australia.

Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

This paper examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left-right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. However, spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the United States. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia’s stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.

Documenting the inevitable: Voting behaviour at the 2013 Australian election

This chapter uses data from the 2013 Australian Election Study (AES), conducted by Clive Bean, Ian McAllister, Juliet Pietsch and Rachel Gibson (Bean et al. 2014) to investigate political attitudes and voting behaviour in the election. The study was funded by the Australian Research Council and involved a national survey of political attitudes and behaviour using a self-completion questionnaire mailed to respondents on the day before the 7 September election. The sample was a systematic random sample of enrolled voters throughout Australia, drawn by the Australian Electoral Commission. Respondents were given the option of returning the completed questionnaire by reply-paid mail or completing the survey online. Non-respondents were sent several follow-up mailings and the final sample size was 3955, representing a response rate of 34 per cent. The data were weighted to reflect population parameters for gender, age, state and vote.

Child Abuse and Neglect: A Socio-legal Study of Mandatory Reporting in Australia - Report for the South Australian Government

This report presents the results of a study exploring the law and practice of mandatory reporting of child abuse and neglect in South Australia. Government administrative data over a decade (2003-2012) were accessed and analysed to map trends in reporting of different types of child abuse and neglect (physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect) by different reporter groups (both mandated reporters e.g., police, teachers, doctors, nurses; and non-mandated reporters e.g., family members, neighbours), and the outcomes of these reports (whether investigated, and whether substantiated or not). The study was funded by the Australian Government and administered through the Government of Victoria.

Child Abuse and Neglect: A Socio-legal Study of Mandatory Reporting in Australia - Report for the West Australian Government

This report presents the results of a study exploring the law and practice of mandatory reporting of child abuse and neglect in Western Australia. Government administrative data over a decade (2003-2012) were accessed and analysed to map trends in reporting of different types of child abuse and neglect (physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect) by different reporter groups (e.g., police, teachers, doctors, nurses, family members, neighbours), and the outcomes of these reports (whether investigated, and whether substantiated or not). The study was funded by the Australian Government and administered through the Government of Victoria.

Monsoon Regimes and Processes in CCSM4. Part I: The Asian-Australian Monsoon

The simulation characteristics of the Asian-Australian monsoon are documented for the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). This is the first part of a two part series examining monsoon regimes in the global tropics in the CCSM4. Comparisons are made to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, (CAM4)] to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and with ocean-atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In general, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with CAM4, and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Most aspects of the Asian-Australian monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. There is a reduction of the systematic error of rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean for the South Asian monsoon, and well-simulated connections between SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and regional South Asian monsoon precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the Australian monsoon is closer to observations in part because of contributions from the improvements of the Indonesian Throughflow and diapycnal diffusion in CCSM4. Intraseasonal variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon is much improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3 both in terms of eastward and northward propagation characteristics, though it is still somewhat weaker than observed. An improved simulation of El Nino in CCSM4 contributes to more realistic connections between the Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), though there is considerable decadal and century time scale variability of the strength of the monsoon-ENSO connection.

The South Atlantic Alliance: A southeastern U.S. state Governors initiative to address opportunities and challenges embodied in the region's coastal and ocean domain

The pressures placed on the natural, environmental, economic, and cultural sectors from continued growth, population shifts, weather and climate, and environmental quality are increasing exponentially in the southeastern U.S. region. Our growing understanding of the relationship of humans with the marine environment is leading us to explore new ecosystem-based approaches to coastal management, marine resources planning, and coastal adaptation that engages multiple state jurisdictions. The urgency of the situation calls for coordinated regional actions by the states, in conjunction with supporting partners and leveraging a diversity of resources, to address critical issues in sustaining our coastal and ocean ecosystems and enhancing the quality of life of our citizens. The South Atlantic Alliance (www.southatlanticalliance.org) was formally established on October 19, 2009 to “implement science-based policies and solutions that enhance and protect the value of coastal and ocean resources of the southeastern United States which support the region's culture and economy now and for future generations.” The Alliance, which includes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, will provide a regional mechanism for collaborating, coordinating, and sharing information in support of resource sustainability; improved regional alignment; cooperative planning and leveraging of resources; integrated research, observations, and mapping; increased awareness of the challenges facing the South Atlantic region; and inclusiveness and integration at all levels. Although I am preparing and presenting this overview of the South Atlantic Alliance and its current status, there are a host of representatives from agencies within the four states, universities, NGOs, and ongoing southeastern regional ocean and coastal programs that are contributing significant time, expertise, and energy to the success of the Alliance; information presented herein and to be presented in my oral presentation was generated by the collaborative efforts of these professionals. I also wish to acknowledge the wisdom and foresight of the Governors of the four states in establishing this exciting regional ocean partnership. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Maori octopus (Octopus maorum) bycatch and southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) mortality in the South Australian lobster fishery

Octopuses are commonly taken as bycatch in many trap fisheries for spiny lobsters (Decapoda: Palinuridae) and can cause significant levels of within-trap lobster mortality. This article describes spatiotemporal patterns for Maori octopus (Octopus maorum) catch rates and rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) mortality rates and examines factors that are associated with within-trap lobster mortality in the South Australian rock lobster fishery (SARLF). Since 1983, between 38,000 and 119,000 octopuses per annum have been taken in SARLF traps. Catch rates have fluctuated between 2.2 and 6.2 octopus/100 trap-lifts each day. There is no evidence to suggest that catch rates have declined or that this level of bycatch is unsustainable. Over the last five years, approximately 240,000 lobsters per annum have been killed in traps, representing ~4% of the total catch. Field studies show that over 98% of within-trap lobster mortality is attributable to octopus predation. Lobster mortality rates are positively correlated with the catch rates of octopus. The highest octopus catch rates and lobster mortality rates are recorded during summer and in the more productive southern zone of the fishery. In the southern zone, within-trap lobster mortality rates have increased in recent years, apparently in response to the increase in the number of lobsters in traps and the resultant increase in the probability of octopus encountering traps containing one or more lobsters. Lobster mortality rates are also positively correlated with soak-times in the southern zone fishery and with lobster size. Minimizing trap soak-times is one method currently available for reducing lobster mortality rates. More significant reductions in the rates of within-trap lobster mortality may require a change in the design of lobster traps.