Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

Blow-up, concentration phenomenon and global existence for the Keller-Segel model in high dimension

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

The L-Type Ca+ and KATP channels may contribute to pacing-induced protection against anoxia-reoxygenation in the embryonic heart model.

L-Type Ca(2+) and K(ATP) Channels in Pacing-Induced Cardioprotection. AIMS: The L-type Ca(2+) channel, the sarcolemmal (sarcK(ATP)), and mitochondrial K(ATP) (mitoK(ATP)) channels are involved in myocardial preconditioning. We aimed at determining to what extent these channels can also participate in pacing-induced cardioprotection. METHODS: Hearts of 4-day-old chick embryos were paced in ovo during 12 hour using asynchronous intermittent ventricular stimulation at 110% of the intrinsic rate. Sham operated and paced hearts were then submitted in vitro to anoxia (30 minutes) and reoxygenation (60 minutes). These hearts were exposed to L-type Ca(2+) channel agonist Bay-K-8644 (BAY-K) or blocker verapamil, nonselective K(ATP) channel antagonist glibenclamide (GLIB), mitoK(ATP) channel agonist diazoxide (DIAZO), or antagonist 5-hydroxydecanoate. Electrocardiogram, electromechanical delay (EMD) reflecting excitation-contraction (E-C) coupling, and contractility were determined. RESULTS: Under normoxia, heart rate, QT duration, conduction, EMD, and ventricular shortening were similar in sham and paced hearts. During reoxygenation, arrhythmias ceased earlier and ventricular EMD recovered faster in paced hearts than in sham hearts. In sham hearts, BAY-K (but not verapamil), DIAZO (but not 5-hydroxydecanoate) or GLIB accelerated recovery of ventricular EMD, reproducing the pacing-induced protection. By contrast, none of these agents further ameliorated recovery of the paced hearts. CONCLUSION: The protective effect of chronic asynchronous pacing at near physiological rate on ventricular E-C coupling appears to be associated with subtle activation of L-type Ca(2+) channel, inhibition of sarcK(ATP) channel, and/or opening of mitoK(ATP) channel.

Water Reallocation in the Input-Output Model

Water reallocation between economic agents has been –and continues to be- the subject of a considerable amount of research. This paper proposes a method for evaluating how water is reallocated within the economy in response to changes in final demand and changes in the technical water needs of activities and consumers. The empirical application, which is for the Catalan economy, shows important asymmetries in the effects that exogenous inflows and changes in water technical requirements cause on water reallocation. In the process of water distribution, exogenous inflows mostly benefit agriculture and damage private consumers. On the other hand, increases in technical water requirements have negative effects on agriculture and positive effects on the other production activities. The results of the study suggest that agriculture is an important activity not only in terms of water distribution but also in terms of water reallocation due to changes in final demand and technical water needs. Keywords: Water reallocation, water distribution, exogenous shock, technical water needs.

A comparative study of the preventative effects exerted by two probiotics, Lactobacillus reuteri and Lactobacillus fermentum, in the trinitrobenzenesulfonic acid model of rat colitis

The intestinal anti-inflammatory effects of two probiotics isolated from breast milk, Lactobacillus reuteri and L. fermentum, were evaluated and compared in the trinitrobenzenesulfonic acid (TNBS) model of rat colitis. Colitis was induced in rats by intracolonic administration of 10 mg TNBS dissolved in 50% ethanol (0.25 ml). Either L. reuteri or L. fermentum was daily administered orally (5 x 10(8) colony-forming units suspended in 0.5 ml skimmed milk) to each group of rats (n 10) for 3 weeks, starting 2 weeks before colitis induction. Colonic damage was evaluated histologically and biochemically, and the colonic luminal contents were used for bacterial studies and for SCFA production. Both probiotics showed intestinal anti-inflammatory effects in this model of experimental colitis, as evidenced histologically and by a significant reduction of colonic myeloperoxidase activity (P<0.05). L. fermentum significantly counteracted the colonic glutathione depletion induced by the inflammatory process. In addition, both probiotics lowered colonic TNFalpha levels (P<0.01) and inducible NO synthase expression when compared with non-treated rats; however, the decrease in colonic cyclo-oxygenase-2 expression was only achieved with L.fermentum administration. Finally, the two probiotics induced the growth of Lactobacilli species in comparison with control colitic rats, but the production of SCFA in colonic contents was only increased when L. fermentum was given. In conclusion, L. fermentum can exert beneficial immunomodulatory properties in inflammatory bowel disease, being more effective than L. reuteri, a probiotic with reputed efficacy in promoting beneficial effects on human health.

Structural and mean level analyses of the Five-Factor Model and Locus of Control: Further evidence from Africa

The present study examines the Five-Factor Model (FFM) of personality and locus of control in French-speaking samples in Burkina Faso (N = 470) and Switzerland (Ns = 1,090, 361), using the Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) and Levenson's Internality, Powerful others, and Chance (IPC) scales. Alpha reliabilities were consistently lower in Burkina Faso, but the factor structure of the NEO-PI-R was replicated in both cultures. The intended three-factor structure of the IPC could not be replicated, although a two-factor solution was replicable across the two samples. Although scalar equivalence has not been demonstrated, mean level comparisons showed the hypothesized effects for most of the five factors and locus of control; Burkinabè scored higher in Neuroticism than anticipated. Findings from this African sample generally replicate earlier results from Asian and Western cultures, and are consistent with a biologically-based theory of personality.

Personality disorders and the Five-Factor Model among French speakers in Africa and Europe

Objective: Several authors have suggested that Personality Disorders (PDs) might be more accurately described using a dimensional model instead of a categorical one. The aim of this study was to describe the relationship between PDs and the Five-Factor Model (FFM)-a dimensional model describing normal personality traits known for its invariance across cultures-in two different cultural settings. Method: Subjects from nine French-speaking African countries (n = 2,014) and from Switzerland (n = 697) completed both the French-version of the IPDE screening questionnaire, assessing the ten DSM-IV PDs, and the French-version of the NEO-PI-R, assessing the five domains and thirty facets of the FFM. Results: Correlations between PDs and the five domains of the FFM were similar in both samples. For example, Neuroticism was highly correlated with Borderline, Avoidant, and Dependent PDs in both Africa and Switzerland. The total rank-order correlation (rho) between the two correlation matrices was very high (rho = 0.93) and significant (P < 0.001), as were the rhos for all domains of the FFM and all PDs, except Paranoid and Dependent PDs. However, the rhos for PDs across facet-scales were all highly significant (P < 0.001). Moreover, 80% of Widiger and colleagues' predictions and 70 % of Lynam and Widiger's prototypes, concerning the relationship between PDs and the FFM, were confirmed in both samples. Conclusions: The relationship between PDs and the FFM was stable in two samples separated by a great cultural distance. These results suggest that a dimensional approach and in particular the FFM might be useful for describing PDs in a variety of cultural settings.

The Relevance of the Principal-Agent Model for the Analysis of Public Policies : Do the Objectives Conflict ?

This paper aims to provide empirical support for the use of the principal-agent framework in the analysis of public sector and public policies. After reviewing the different conditions to be met for a relevant analysis of the relationship between population and government using the principal-agent theory, our paper focuses on the assumption of conflicting goals between the principal and the agent. A principal-agent analysis assumes in effect that inefficiencies may arise because principal and agent pursue different goals. Using data collected during an amalgamation project of two Swiss municipalities, we show the existence of a gap between the goals of the population and those of the government. Consequently, inefficiencies as predicted by the principal-agent model may arise during the implementation of a public policy, i.e. an amalgamation project. In a context of direct democracy where policies are regularly subjected to referendum, the conflict of objectives may even lead to a total failure of the policy at the polls.

Fronts from two-dimensional dispersal kernels: Beyond the nonoverlapping-generations model

Most integrodifference models of biological invasions are based on the nonoverlapping-generations approximation. However, the effect of multiple reproduction events overlapping generations on the front speed can be very important especially for species with a long life spam . Only in one-dimensional space has this approximation been relaxed previously, although almost all biological invasions take place in two dimensions. Here we present a model that takes into account the overlapping generations effect or, more generally, the stage structure of the population , and we analyze the main differences with the corresponding nonoverlappinggenerations results

Estimation of electronic coupling in π -stacked donor-bridge-acceptor systems: correction of the two-state model

Comparison of donor-acceptor electronic couplings calculated within two-state and three-state models suggests that the two-state treatment can provide unreliable estimates of Vda because of neglecting the multistate effects. We show that in most cases accurate values of the electronic coupling in a π stack, where donor and acceptor are separated by a bridging unit, can be obtained as Ṽ da = (E2 - E1) μ12 Rda + (2 E3 - E1 - E2) 2 μ13 μ23 Rda2, where E1, E2, and E3 are adiabatic energies of the ground, charge-transfer, and bridge states, respectively, μij is the transition dipole moments between the states i and j, and Rda is the distance between the planes of donor and acceptor. In this expression based on the generalized Mulliken-Hush approach, the first term corresponds to the coupling derived within a two-state model, whereas the second term is the superexchange correction accounting for the bridge effect. The formula is extended to bridges consisting of several subunits. The influence of the donor-acceptor energy mismatch on the excess charge distribution, adiabatic dipole and transition moments, and electronic couplings is examined. A diagnostic is developed to determine whether the two-state approach can be applied. Based on numerical results, we showed that the superexchange correction considerably improves estimates of the donor-acceptor coupling derived within a two-state approach. In most cases when the two-state scheme fails, the formula gives reliable results which are in good agreement (within 5%) with the data of the three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush model

SlimCodeML: An Optimized Version of CodeML for the Branch-Site Model

CodeML (part of the PAML package) im- plements a maximum likelihood-based approach to de- tect positive selection on a specific branch of a given phylogenetic tree. While CodeML is widely used, it is very compute-intensive. We present SlimCodeML, an optimized version of CodeML for the branch-site model. Our performance analysis shows that SlimCodeML substantially outperforms CodeML (up to 9.38 times faster), especially for large-scale genomic analyses.