Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

Scaling of natural convection of an inclined flat plate : ramp cooling condition

A scaling analysis is performed for the transient boundary layer established adjacent to an inclined flat plate following a ramp cooling boundary condition. The imposed wall temperature decreases linearly up to a specific value over a specific time. It is revealed that if the ramp time is sufficiently large then the boundary layer reaches quasi-steady mode before the growth of the temperature is finished. However, if the ramp time is shorter then the steady state of the boundary layer may be reached after the growth of the temperature is completed. In this case, the ultimate steady state is the same as if the start up had been instantaneous. Note that the cold boundary layer adjacent to the plate is potentially unstable to Rayleigh-Bénard instability if the Rayleigh number exceeds a certain critical value for this cooling case. The onset of instability may set in at different stages of the boundary layer development. A proper identification of the time when the instability may set in is discussed. A numerical verification of the time for the onset of instability is presented in this study. Different flow regimes based on the stability of the boundary layer have also been discussed with numerical results.

Scaling of natural convection of an inclined flat plate : sudden cooling condition

The natural convection boundary layer adjacent to an inclined plate subject to sudden cooling boundary condition has been studied. It is found that the cold boundary layer adjacent to the plate is potentially unstable to Rayleigh-Bénard instability if the Rayleigh number exceeds a certain critical value. A scaling relation for the onset of instability of the boundary layer is achieved. The scaling relations have been developed by equating important terms of the governing equations based on the development of the boundary layer with time. The flow adjacent to the plate can be classified broadly into a conductive, a stable convective or an unstable convective regime determined by the Rayleigh number. Proper scales have been established to quantify the flow properties in each of these flow regimes. An appropriate identification of the time when the instability may set in is discussed. A numerical verification of the time for the onset of instability is also presented in this study. Different flow regimes based on the stability of the boundary layer have been discussed with numerical results.

Estimating the loading condition of a diesel engine using instantaneous angular speed analysis

Continuing monitoring of diesel engine performance is critical for early detection of fault developments in the engine before they materialize and become a functional failure. Instantaneous crank angular speed (IAS) analysis is one of a few non intrusive condition monitoring techniques that can be utilized for such tasks. In this experimental study, IAS analysis was employed to estimate the loading condition of a 4-stroke 4-cylinder diesel engine in a laboratory condition. It was shown that IAS analysis can provide useful information about engine speed variation caused by the changing piston momentum and crankshaft acceleration during the engine combustion process. It was also found that the major order component of the IAS spectrum directly associated with the engine firing frequency (at twice the mean shaft revolution speed) can be utilized to estimate the engine loading condition regardless of whether the engine is operating at normal running conditions or in a simulated faulty injector case. The amplitude of this order component follows a clear exponential curve as the loading condition changes. A mathematical relationship was established for the estimation of the engine power output based on the amplitude of the major order component of the measured IAS spectrum.

Estimating the loading condition of a diesel engine using instantaneous angular speed analysis

Continuing monitoring of diesel engine performance is critical for early detection of fault developments in the engine before they materialize and become a functional failure. Instantaneous crank angular speed (IAS) analysis is one of a few non intrusive condition monitoring techniques that can be utilized for such tasks. In this experimental study, IAS analysis was employed to estimate the loading condition of a 4-stroke 4-cylinder diesel engine in a laboratory condition. It was shown that IAS analysis can provide useful information about engine speed variation caused by the changing piston momentum and crankshaft acceleration during the engine combustion process. It was also found that the major order component of the IAS spectrum directly associated with the engine firing frequency (at twice the mean shaft revolution speed) can be utilized to estimate the engine loading condition regardless of whether the engine is operating at normal running conditions or in a simulated faulty injector case. The amplitude of this order component follows a clear exponential curve as the loading condition changes. A mathematical relationship was established for the estimation of the engine power output based on the amplitude of the major order component of the measured IAS spectrum.

Sustaining and improving the social condition of river ecosystems

This study uses and extends the theory of planned behavior to develop and empirically test a model of the social condition of riparian behavior. The theory of planned behavior is applicable to understanding the complexity of social conditions underlying waterway health. SEM identified complex interrelationships between variables. Aspects of respondent’s beliefs impacted on their stated intentions and behavior and were partially mediated by perceived behavioral control. The way in which people used waterways also influenced their actions. This study adds to theoretical knowledge through the development of scales that measure aspects of the social condition of waterways and examines their interrelationships for the first time. It extends the theory of planned behaviour through the incorporation of an objective measure of participants knowledge of waterway health. It also has practical implications for managers involved in sustaining and improving the social condition of river ecosystems.

Towards condition-invariant sequence-based route recognition

In this paper we present a novel algorithm for localization during navigation that performs matching over local image sequences. Instead of calculating the single location most likely to correspond to a current visual scene, the approach finds candidate matching locations within every section (subroute) of all learned routes. Through this approach, we reduce the demands upon the image processing front-end, requiring it to only be able to correctly pick the best matching image from within a short local image sequence, rather than globally. We applied this algorithm to a challenging downhill mountainbiking visual dataset where there was significant perceptual or environment change between repeated traverses of the environment, and compared performance to applying the feature-based algorithm FAB-MAP. The results demonstrate the potential for localization using visual sequences, even when there are no visual features that can be reliably detected.

Condition monitoring and diagnosis of injector faults in a diesel engine using in-cylinder pressure and acoustic emission techniques

Failing injectors are one of the most common faults in diesel engines. The severity of these faults could have serious effects on diesel engine operations such as engine misfire, knocking, insufficient power output or even cause a complete engine breakdown. It is thus essential to prevent such faults from occurring by monitoring the condition of these injectors. In this paper, the authors present the results of an experimental investigation on identifying the signal characteristics of a simulated incipient injector fault in a diesel engine using both in-cylinder pressure and acoustic emission (AE) techniques. A time waveform event driven synchronous averaging technique was used to minimize or eliminate the effect of engine speed variation and amplitude fluctuation. It was found that AE is an effective method to detect the simulated injector fault in both time (crank angle) and frequency (order) domains. It was also shown that the time domain in-cylinder pressure signal is a poor indicator for condition monitoring and diagnosis of the simulated injector fault due to the small effect of the simulated fault on the engine combustion process. Nevertheless, good correlations between the simulated injector fault and the lower order components of the enveloped in-cylinder pressure spectrum were found at various engine loading conditions.

Effect of MHD and heat generation on natural convection flow in an open square cavity under microgravity condition

Purpose - Thermo-magnetic convection and heat transfer of paramagnetic fluid placed in a micro-gravity condition (g = 0) and under a uniform vertical gradient magnetic field in an open square cavity with three cold sidewalls have been studied numerically. Design/methodology/approach - This magnetic force is proportional to the magnetic susceptibility and the gradient of the square of the magnetic induction. The magnetic susceptibility is inversely proportional to the absolute temperature based on Curie’s law. Thermal convection of a paramagnetic fluid can therefore take place even in zero-gravity environment as a direct consequence of temperature differences occurring within the fluid due to a constant internal heat generation placed within a magnetic field gradient. Findings - Effects of magnetic Rayleigh number, Ra, Prandtl number, Pr, and paramagnetic fluid parameter, m, on the flow pattern and isotherms as well as on the heat absorption are presented graphically. It is found that the heat transfer rate is suppressed in increased of the magnetic Rayleigh number and the paramagnetic fluid parameter for the present investigation. Originality/value - It is possible to control the buoyancy force by using the super conducting magnet. To the best knowledge of the author no literature related to magnetic convection for this configuration is available.

Functional and advanced functional and causal relationship diagrams for remote condition monitoring

Analysing the condition of an asset is a big challenge as there can be many aspects which can contribute to the overall functional reliability of the asset that have to be considered. In this paper we propose a two-step functional and causal relationship diagram (FCRD) to address this problem. In the first step, the FCRD is designed to facilitate the analysis of the condition of an asset by evaluating the interdependence (functional and causal) relationships between different components of the asset with the help of a relationship diagram. This is followed by the advanced FCRD (AFCRD) which refines the information from the FCRD into a comprehensive and manageable format. This new two-step methodology for asset condition monitoring is tested and validated for the case of a water treatment plant. © IMechE 2012.

Condition deterioration prediction of bridge elements using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs)

The ability of bridge deterioration models to predict future condition provides significant advantages in improving the effectiveness of maintenance decisions. This paper proposes a novel model using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the condition of bridge elements. The proposed model improves prediction results by being able to handle, deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, the lack of full inspection histories, and joint considerations of both maintenance actions and environmental effects. With Bayesian updating capability, different types of data and information can be utilised as inputs. Expert knowledge can be used to deal with insufficient data as a starting point. The proposed model established a flexible basis for bridge systems deterioration modelling so that other models and Bayesian approaches can be further developed in one platform. A steel bridge main girder was chosen to validate the proposed model.