Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability?

Identifying the prime drivers of the twentieth-century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean is crucial for predicting how the Atlantic will evolve in the coming decades and the resulting broad impacts on weather and precipitation patterns around the globe. Recently, Booth et al. showed that the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) closely reproduces the observed multidecadal variations of area-averaged North Atlantic sea surface temperature in the twentieth century. The multidecadal variations simulated in HadGEM2-ES are primarily driven by aerosol indirect effects that modify net surface shortwave radiation. On the basis of these results, Booth et al. concluded that aerosols are a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. However, here it is shown that there are major discrepancies between the HadGEM2-ES simulations and observations in the North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content, in the spatial pattern of multidecadal SST changes within and outside the North Atlantic, and in the subpolar North Atlantic sea surface salinity. These discrepancies may be strongly influenced by, and indeed in large part caused by, aerosol effects. It is also shown that the aerosol effects simulated in HadGEM2-ES cannot account for the observed anticorrelation between detrended multidecadal surface and subsurface temperature variations in the tropical North Atlantic. These discrepancies cast considerable doubt on the claim that aerosol forcing drives the bulk of this multidecadal variability.

The Sun-Earth connection in time scales from years to decades and centuries

The Sun-Earth connection is studied using long-term measurements from the Sun and from the Earth. The auroral activity is shown to correlate to high accuracy with the smoothed sunspot numbers. Similarly, both geomagnetic activity and global surface temperature anomaly can be linked to cyclic changes in the solar activity. The interlinked variations in the solar magnetic activity and in the solar irradiance cause effects that can be observed both in the Earth's biosphere and in the electromagnetic environment. The long-term data sets suggest that the increase in geomagnetic activity and surface temperatures are related (at least partially) to longer-term solar variations, which probably include an increasing trend superposed with a cyclic behavior with a period of about 90 years.

Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways

Future land use change (LUC) is an important component of the IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but in these scenarios' radiative forcing targets the climate impact of LUC only includes greenhouse gases. However, climate effects due to physical changes of the land surface can be as large. Here we show the critical importance of including non-carbon impacts of LUC when considering the RCPs. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations with and without LUC, we show that the net climate effect is very different from the carbon-only effect. Despite opposite signs of LUC, all the RCPs assessed here have a small net warming from LUC because of varying biogeophysical effects, and in RCP4.5 the warming is outside of the expected variability. The afforestation in RCP4.5 decreases surface albedo, making the net global temperature anomaly over land around five times larger than RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, for around twice the amount of LUC. Consequent changes to circulation in RCP4.5 in turn reduce Arctic sea ice cover. The small net positive temperature effect from LUC could make RCP4.5's universal carbon tax, which incentivizes retaining and growing forest, counter productive with respect to climate. However, there are spatial differences in the balance of impacts, and potential climate gains would need to be assessed against other environmental aims.

Reefs shift from net accretion to net erosion along a natural environmental gradient

Coral reefs persist in an accretion-erosion balance and ocean acidification resulting from anthropogenic CO2 emissions threatens to shift this balance in favor of net reef erosion. Corals and calcifying algae, largely responsible for reef accretion, are vulnerable to environmental changes associated with ocean acidification, but the direct effects of lower pH on reef erosion has received less attention, particularly in the context of known drivers of bioerosion and natural variability. This study examines the balance between reef accretion and erosion along a well-characterized natural environmental gradient in Kane'ohe Bay, Hawai'i using experimental blocks of coral skeleton. Comparing before and after micro-computed tomography (µCT) scans to quantify net accretion and erosion, we show that, at the small spatial scale of this study (tens of meters), pH was a better predictor of the accretion-erosion balance than environmental drivers suggested by prior studies, including resource availability, temperature, distance from shore, or depth. In addition, this study highlights the fine-scale variation of pH in coastal systems and the importance of microhabitat variation for reef accretion and erosion processes. We demonstrate significant changes in both the mean and variance of pH on the order of meters, providing a local perspective on global increases in pCO2. Our findings suggest that increases in reef erosion, combined with expected decreases in calcification, will accelerate the shift of coral reefs to an erosion-dominated system in a high-CO2 world. This shift will make reefs increasingly susceptible to storm damage and sea-level rise, threatening the maintenance of the ecosystem services that coral reefs provide.

Changes in bottom water corrosiveness and carbonate ion concentrations in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic during the last glacial period

The glacial climate system transitioned rapidly between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. This variability, referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger variability, is widely believed to arise from perturbations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Evidence for such changes during the longer Heinrich stadials has been identified, but direct evidence for overturning circulation changes during Dansgaard-Oeschger events has proven elusive. Here we reconstruct bottom water [CO3]2- variability from B/Ca ratios of benthic foraminifera and indicators of sedimentary dissolution, and use these reconstructions to infer the flow of northern-sourced deep water to the deep central sub-Antarctic Atlantic Ocean. We find that nearly every Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial is accompanied by a rapid incursion of North Atlantic Deep Water into the deep South Atlantic. Based on these results and transient climate model simulations, we conclude that North Atlantic stadial-interstadial climate variability was associated with significant Atlantic overturning circulation changes that were rapidly transmitted across the Atlantic. However, by demonstrating the persistent role of Atlantic overturning circulation changes in past abrupt climate variability, our reconstructions of carbonate chemistry further indicate that the carbon cycle response to abrupt climate change was not a simple function of North Atlantic overturning.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and nutrients measured on water bottle samples during the International Siberian Shelf Study 2008 (ISSS-08) in the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi Seas

The motivation for ISSS-08 was to alleviate the scarcity of observational data on transport and processing of water, sediment and carbon on the East Siberian Arctic Shelves (ESAS). The region is of particular interest from the perspective of carbon-climate couplings as it has witnessed a 4°C springtime positive temperature anomaly for 2000-2005 compared with preceding decades. A complex sampling program was accomplished during the 50-days ISSS-08 cruise August - September 2008 by participants from 12 organizations in Russia, Sweden, UK and USA.

Sedimentology and gas hydrates of IODP Expedition 311 samples

Expedition 311 of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) to northern Cascadia recovered gas-hydrate bearing sediments along a SW-NE transect from the first ridge of the accretionary margin to the eastward limit of gas-hydrate stability. In this study we contrast the gas gas-hydrate distribution from two sites drilled ~ 8 km apart in different tectonic settings. At Site U1325, drilled on a depositional basin with nearly horizontal sedimentary sequences, the gas-hydrate distribution shows a trend of increasing saturation toward the base of gas-hydrate stability, consistent with several model simulations in the literature. Site U1326 was drilled on an uplifted ridge characterized by faulting, which has likely experienced some mass wasting events. Here the gas hydrate does not show a clear depth-distribution trend, the highest gas-hydrate saturation occurs well within the gas-hydrate stability zone at the shallow depth of ~ 49 mbsf. Sediments at both sites are characterized by abundant coarse-grained (sand) layers up to 23 cm in thickness, and are interspaced within fine-grained (clay and silty clay) detrital sediments. The gas-hydrate distribution is punctuated by localized depth intervals of high gas-hydrate saturation, which preferentially occur in the coarse-grained horizons and occupy up to 60% of the pore space at Site U1325 and > 80% at Site U1326. Detailed analyses of contiguous samples of different lithologies show that when enough methane is present, about 90% of the variance in gas-hydrate saturation can be explained by the sand (> 63 µm) content of the sediments. The variability in gas-hydrate occupancy of sandy horizons at Site U1326 reflects an insufficient methane supply to the sediment section between 190 and 245 mbsf.

Establishment, expansion and regeneration of aspen (Populus tremula) in the Torneträsk area, subarctic Sweden

In subarctic Sweden, recent decadal colonization and expansion of aspen (Populus tremula L.) were recorded. Over the past 100 years, aspen became c. 16 times more abundant, mainly as a result of increased sexual regeneration. Moreover, aspen now reach tree-size (>2 m) at the alpine treeline, an ecotone that has been dominated by mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) for at least the past 4000 years. We found that sexual regeneration in aspen probably occurred seven times or more within the last century. Whereas sexual regeneration occurred during moist years following a year with an exceptionally high June-July temperature, asexual regeneration was favored by warm and dry summers. Disturbance to the birch forest by cyclic moth population outbreaks was critical in aspen establishment in the subalpine area. At the treeline, aspen colonization was less determined by these moth outbreaks, and was mainly restricted by summer temperature. If summer warming persists, aspen spread may continue in subarctic Sweden, particularly at the treeline. However, changing disturbance regimes, future herbivore population dynamics and the responses of aspen's competitors birch and pine to a changing climate may result in different outcomes.

Stable isotopes, Mg/Ca ratios and sea surface temperatures on foraminifera from sediment cores off equatorial Peru during the last ~17kyr

The complex deglacial to Holocene oceanographic development in the Gulf of Guayaquil (Eastern Equatorial Pacific) is reconstructed for sea surface and subsurface ocean levels from (isotope) geochemical proxies based on marine sediment cores. At sea surface, southern sourced Cold Coastal Water and tropical Equatorial Surface Water/Tropical Surface Water are intimately related. In particular since ~10 ka, independent sea surface temperature proxies capturing different seasons emphasize the growing seasonal contrast in the Gulf of Guayaquil, which is in contrast to ocean areas further offshore. Cold Coastal Water became rapidly present in the Gulf of Guayaquil during the austral winter season in line with the strengthening of the Southeast Trades, while coastal upwelling off Peru gradually intensified and expanded northward in response to a seasonally changing atmospheric circulation pattern affecting the core locations intensively since 4 ka BP. Equatorial Surface Water, instead, was displaced and Tropical Surface Water moved northward together with the Equatorial Front. At subsurface, the presence of Equatorial Under Current-sourced Equatorial Subsurface Water was continuously growing, prominently since ~10-8 ka B.P. During Heinrich Stadial 1 and large parts of the Bølling/Allerød, and similarly during short Holocene time intervals at ~5.1-4 ka B.P. and ~1.5-0.5 ka B.P., the admixture of Equatorial Subsurface Water was reduced in response to both short-term weakening of Equatorial Under Current strength from the northwest and emplacement by tropical Equatorial Surface Water, considerably warming the uppermost ocean layers.

Characterization of dead-zone eddies in the tropical Northeast Atlantic

Localized open-ocean low-oxygen dead-zones in the tropical Northeast Atlantic are recently discovered ocean features that can develop in dynamically isolated water masses within cyclonic eddies (CE) and anticyclonic modewater eddies (ACME). Analysis of a comprehensive oxygen dataset obtained from gliders, moorings, research vessels and Argo floats revealed that eddies with low oxygen concentrations at 50-150 m depths can be found in surprisingly high numbers and in a large area (from about 4°N to 22°N, from the shelf at the eastern boundary to 38°W). Minimum oxygen concentrations of about 9 µmol kg-1 in CEs and severely suboxic concentrations (< 1 µmol kg-1) in ACMEs were observed. In total, 173 profiles with oxygen concentrations below the minimum background concentration of 40 µmol kg-1 could be associated with 27 independent "dead-zone" eddies (10 CEs; 17 ACMEs) over a period of 10 years. The eddies' oxygen minimum is located in the eddy core beneath the mixed layer at a mean depth of 80 m. Compared to the surrounding waters, the mean oxygen anomaly between 50 and 150 m depth for CEs (ACMEs) is -38 (-79) µmol kg-1. The low oxygen concentration right beneath the mixed layer has been attributed to the combination of high productivity in the eddies' surface waters and the isolation of their cores with respect to lateral oxygen supply. Indeed, eddies of both types feature a cold sea surface temperature anomaly and enhanced chlorophyll concentrations in their center. The locally increased consumption within these eddies represents an essential part of the total consumption in the open tropical Northeast Atlantic Ocean and might be partly responsible for the formation of the shallow oxygen minimum zone. Eddies south of 12°N carry weak hydrographic anomalies in their cores and seem to be generated in the open ocean away from the boundary. North of 12°N, eddies of both types carry anomalously low salinity water of South Atlantic Central Water origin from the eastern boundary upwelling region into the open ocean. Water mass properties and satellite eddy tracking both point to an eddy generation near the eastern boundary.