Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets

This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.

Devolatilization-induced pressure build-up: Implications for reaction front movement and breccia pipe formation

Generation of fluids during metamorphism can significantly influence the fluid overpressure, and thus the fluid flow in metamorphic terrains. There is currently a large focus on developing numerical reactive transport models, and with it follows the need for analytical solutions to ensure correct numerical implementation. In this study, we derive both analytical and numerical solutions to reaction-induced fluid overpressure, coupled to temperature and fluid flow out of the reacting front. All equations are derived from basic principles of conservation of mass, energy and momentum. We focus on contact metamorphism, where devolatilization reactions are particularly important owing to high thermal fluxes allowing large volumes of fluids to be rapidly generated. The analytical solutions reveal three key factors involved in the pressure build-up: (i) The efficiency of the devolatilizing reaction front (pressure build-up) relative to fluid flow (pressure relaxation), (ii) the reaction temperature relative to the available heat in the system and (iii) the feedback of overpressure on the reaction temperature as a function of the Clapeyron slope. Finally, we apply the model to two geological case scenarios. In the first case, we investigate the influence of fluid overpressure on the movement of the reaction front and show that it can slow down significantly and may even be terminated owing to increased effective reaction temperature. In the second case, the model is applied to constrain the conditions for fracturing and inferred breccia pipe formation in organic-rich shales owing to methane generation in the contact aureole.

A stratified approach for modeling the distribution of a threatened ant species in the Swiss National Park

We present models predicting the potential distribution of a threatened ant species, Formica exsecta Nyl., in the Swiss National Park ( SNP). Data to fit the models have been collected according to a random-stratified design with an equal number of replicates per stratum. The basic aim of such a sampling strategy is to allow the formal testing of biological hypotheses about those factors most likely to account for the distribution of the modeled species. The stratifying factors used in this study were: vegetation, slope angle and slope aspect, the latter two being used as surrogates of solar radiation, considered one of the basic requirements of F. exsecta. Results show that, although the basic stratifying predictors account for more than 50% of the deviance, the incorporation of additional non-spatially explicit predictors into the model, as measured in the field, allows for an increased model performance (up to nearly 75%). However, this was not corroborated by permutation tests. Implementation on a national scale was made for one model only, due to the difficulty of obtaining similar predictors on this scale. The resulting map on the national scale suggests that the species might once have had a broader distribution in Switzerland. Reasons for its particular abundance within the SNP might possibly be related to habitat fragmentation and vegetation transformation outside the SNP boundaries.

Condom use with steady partners among heterosexual people living with HIV in Europe: testing the information-motivation-behavioral skills model.

Guided by a modified information-motivation-behavioral skills model, this study identified predictors of condom use among heterosexual people living with HIV with their steady partners. Consecutive patients at 14 European HIV outpatient clinics received an anonymous, standardized, self-administered questionnaire between March and December 2007. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and two-step backward elimination regression analyses stratified by gender. The survey included 651 participants (n = 364, 56% women; n = 287, 44%). Mean age was 39 years for women and 43 years for men. Most had acquired HIV sexually and more than half were in a serodiscordant relationship. Sixty-three percent (n = 229) of women and 59% of men (n = 169) reported at least one sexual encounter with a steady partner 6 months prior to the survey. Fifty-one percent (n = 116) of women and 59% of men (n = 99) used condoms consistently with that partner. In both genders, condom use was positively associated with subjective norm conducive to condom use, and self-efficacy to use condoms. Having a partner whose HIV status was positive or unknown reduced condom use. In men, higher education and knowledge about condom use additionally increased condom use, while the use of erectile-enhancing medication decreased it. For women, HIV disclosure to partners additionally reduced the likelihood of condom use. Positive attitudes to condom use and subjective norm increased self-efficacy in both genders, however, a number of gender-related differences appeared to influence self-efficacy. Service providers should pay attention to the identified predictors of condom use and adopt comprehensive and gender-related approaches for preventive interventions with people living with HIV.

Preliminary slope mass movement susceptibility mapping using DEM and LiDAR DEM

Hazard mapping in mountainous areas at the regional scale has greatly changed since the 1990s thanks to improved digital elevation models (DEM). It is now possible to model slope mass movement and floods with a high level of detail in order to improve geomorphologic mapping. We present examples of regional multi-hazard susceptibility mapping through two Swiss case studies, including landslides, rockfall, debris flows, snow avalanches and floods, in addition to several original methods and software tools. The aim of these recent developments is to take advantage of the availability of high resolution DEM (HRDEM) for better mass movement modeling. Our results indicate a good correspondence between inventories of hazardous zones based on historical events and model predictions. This paper demonstrates that by adapting tools and methods issued from modern technologies, it is possible to obtain reliable documents for land planning purposes over large areas.

Extraction of soil water by plants: development and validation of a model

A quantitative model of water movement within the immediate vicinity of an individual root is developed and results of an experiment to validate the model are presented. The model is based on the assumption that the amount of water transpired by a plant in a certain period is replaced by an equal volume entering its root system during the same time. The model is based on the Darcy-Buckingham equation to calculate the soil water matric potential at any distance from a plant root as a function of parameters related to crop, soil and atmospheric conditions. The model output is compared against measurements of soil water depletion by rice roots monitored using γ-beam attenuation in a greenhouse of the Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz"/Universidade de São Paulo(ESALQ/USP) in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 1993. The experimental results are in agreement with the output from the model. Model simulations show that a single plant root is able to withdraw water from more than 0.1 m away within a few days. We therefore can assume that root distribution is a less important factor for soil water extraction efficiency.

Modelling of weather radar echoes from anomalous propagation using a hybrid parabolic equation method and NWP model data

Contamination of weather radar echoes by anomalous propagation (anaprop) mechanisms remains a serious issue in quality control of radar precipitation estimates. Although significant progress has been made identifying clutter due to anaprop there is no unique method that solves the question of data reliability without removing genuine data. The work described here relates to the development of a software application that uses a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to obtain the temperature, humidity and pressure fields to calculate the three dimensional structure of the atmospheric refractive index structure, from which a physically based prediction of the incidence of clutter can be made. This technique can be used in conjunction with existing methods for clutter removal by modifying parameters of detectors or filters according to the physical evidence for anomalous propagation conditions. The parabolic equation method (PEM) is a well established technique for solving the equations for beam propagation in a non-uniformly stratified atmosphere, but although intrinsically very efficient, is not sufficiently fast to be practicable for near real-time modelling of clutter over the entire area observed by a typical weather radar. We demonstrate a fast hybrid PEM technique that is capable of providing acceptable results in conjunction with a high-resolution terrain elevation model, using a standard desktop personal computer. We discuss the performance of the method and approaches for the improvement of the model profiles in the lowest levels of the troposphere.

Transformed and nontransformed human T lymphocytes migrate to skin in a chimeric human skin/SCID mouse model.

To study human T cell migration to human skin in vivo, we grafted severe combined immunodeficient mice with 500-microm thick human skin. Two weeks after grafting, epidermal and dermal structures in the grafts were of human origin. When we intraperitoneally injected grafted mice with clones of the human HUT-78 T cell line derived from a patient with cutaneous T cell lymphoma and Sézary syndrome, we detected in the grafts the rare Vbeta23-Jbeta1.2 T cell receptor transcripts characteristic for the HUT-78 clones. These signals were found 2-6 d after cell injection in about 40% of the grafted and HUT-78 cell injected mice but not in grafts from mice that received no exogenous T cells. In contrast to HUT-78 cells, which only accumulate in low number, grafts topically challenged with nickel sufate in vaseline from mice that were injected with autologous nickel-reactive T cell lines led to massive accumulation of T cells within 3 d. Only scattered T cells accumulated in the skin when grafted mice received vaseline plus T cells, nickel sulfate alone, T cells alone, or nickel sulfate plus an allogeneic nickel-nonreactive T cell clone. When the T cell lines were labeled with the fluorochrome PKH-26 before cell injection, spots of fluorescent label in the size and shape of cells were found in the grafts challenged with nickel. Together, these results clearly demonstrate that human T cells can migrate to human skin in this chimeric human/mouse model.

Modeling water movement in horizontal columns using fractal theory

Fractal mathematics has been used to characterize water and solute transport in porous media and also to characterize and simulate porous media properties. The objective of this study was to evaluate the correlation between the soil infiltration parameters sorptivity (S) and time exponent (n) and the parameters dimension (D) and the Hurst exponent (H). For this purpose, ten horizontal columns with pure (either clay or loam) and heterogeneous porous media (clay and loam distributed in layers in the column) were simulated following the distribution of a deterministic Cantor Bar with fractal dimension H" 0.63. Horizontal water infiltration experiments were then simulated using Hydrus 2D software. The sorptivity (S) and time exponent (n) parameters of the Philip equation were estimated for each simulation, using the nonlinear regression procedure of the statistical software package SAS®. Sorptivity increased in the columns with the loam content, which was attributed to the relation of S with the capillary radius. The time exponent estimated by nonlinear regression was found to be less than the traditional value of 0.5. The fractal dimension estimated from the Hurst exponent was 17.5 % lower than the fractal dimension of the Cantor Bar used to generate the columns.

Mass movement characterization using a reflexion and refraction seismic survey with the sloping local base level concept

This study proposes a new concept for upscaling local information on failure surfaces derived from geophysical data, in order to develop the spatial information and quickly estimate the magnitude and intensity of a landslide. A new vision of seismic interpretation on landslides is also demonstrated by taking into account basic geomorphic information with a numeric method based on the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL). The SLBL is a generalization of the base level defined in geomorphology applied to landslides, and allows the calculation of the potential geometry of the landslide failure surface. This approach was applied to a large scale landslide formed mainly in gypsum and situated in a former glacial valley along the Rhone within the Western European Alps. Previous studies identified the existence of two sliding surfaces that may continue below the level of the valley. In this study. seismic refraction-reflexion surveys were carried out to verify the existence of these failure surfaces. The analysis of the seismic data provides a four-layer model where three velocity layers (<1000 ms(-1), 1500 ms(-1) and 3000 ms(-1)) are interpreted as the mobilized mass at different weathering levels and compaction. The highest velocity layer (>4000 ms(-1)) with a maximum depth of similar to 58 m is interpreted as the stable anhydrite bedrock. Two failure surfaces were interpreted from the seismic surveys: an upper failure and a much deeper one (respectively 25 and 50 m deep). The upper failure surface depth deduced from geophysics is slightly different from the results obtained using the SLBL, and the deeper failure surface depth calculated with the SLBL method is underestimated in comparison with the geophysical interpretations. Optimal results were therefore obtained by including the seismic data in the SLBL calculations according to the geomorphic limits of the landslide (maximal volume of mobilized mass = 7.5 x 10(6) m(3)).

Navigator-gated free-breathing 3D balanced FFE projection renal MRA: Comparison with contrast-enhanced breath-hold 3D MRA in a swine model.

A cardiac-triggered, free-breathing, 3D balanced FFE projection renal MR angiography (MRA) technique with a 2D pencil beam aortic labeling pulse for selective aortic spin tagging was developed. For respiratory motion artifact suppression during free breathing, a prospective real-time navigator was implemented for renal MRA. Images obtained with the new approach were compared with standard contrast-enhanced (CE) 3D breath-hold MRA in seven swine. Signal properties and vessel visualization were analyzed. With the presented technique, high-resolution, high-contrast renal projection MRA with superior vessel length visualization (including a greater visible number of distal branches of the renal arteries) compared to standard breath-hold CE-MRA was obtained. The present results warrant clinical studies in patients with renal artery disease.

Microglia/macrophages migrate through retinal epithelium barrier by a transcellular route in diabetic retinopathy: role of PKCζ in the Goto Kakizaki rat model.

Diabetic retinopathy is associated with ocular inflammation, leading to retinal barrier breakdown, macular edema, and visual cell loss. We investigated the molecular mechanisms involved in microglia/macrophages trafficking in the retina and the role of protein kinase Cζ (PKCζ) in this process. Goto Kakizaki (GK) rats, a model for spontaneous type 2 diabetes were studied until 12 months of hyperglycemia. Up to 5 months, sparse microglia/macrophages were detected in the subretinal space, together with numerous pores in retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells, allowing inflammatory cell traffic between the retina and choroid. Intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), caveolin-1 (CAV-1), and PKCζ were identified at the pore border. At 12 months of hyperglycemia, the significant reduction of pores density in RPE cell layer was associated with microglia/macrophages accumulation in the subretinal space together with vacuolization of RPE cells and disorganization of photoreceptors outer segments. The intraocular injection of a PKCζ inhibitor at 12 months reduced iNOS expression in microglia/macrophages and inhibited their migration through the retina, preventing their subretinal accumulation. We show here that a physiological transcellular pathway takes place through RPE cells and contributes to microglia/macrophages retinal trafficking. Chronic hyperglycemia causes alteration of this pathway and subsequent subretinal accumulation of activated microglia/macrophages.

Evaluation of a computer model to simulate water table response to subirrigation

The objective of this work was to evaluate the water flow computer model, WATABLE, using experimental field observations on water table management plots from a site located near Hastings, FL, USA. The experimental field had scale drainage systems with provisions for subirrigation with buried microirrigation and conventional seepage irrigation systems. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) growing seasons from years 1996 and 1997 were used to simulate the hydrology of the area. Water table levels, precipitation, irrigation and runoff volumes were continuously monitored. The model simulated the water movement from a buried microirrigation line source and the response of the water table to irrigation, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and deep percolation. The model was calibrated and verified by comparing simulated results with experimental field observations. The model performed very well in simulating seasonal runoff, irrigation volumes, and water table levels during crop growth. The two-dimensional model can be used to investigate different irrigation strategies involving water table management control. Applications of the model include optimization of the water table depth for each growth stage, and duration, frequency, and rate of irrigation.

Electrical stimulation induces propagated colonic contractions in an experimental model.

BACKGROUND: Direct colonic electrical stimulation may prove to be a treatment option for specific motility disorders such as chronic constipation. The aim of this study was to provoke colonic contractions using electrical stimulation delivered from a battery-operated device. METHODS: Electrodes were inserted into the caecal seromuscular layer of eight anaesthetized pigs. Contractions were induced by a neurostimulator (Medtronic 3625). Caecal motility was measured simultaneously by video image analysis, manometry and a technique assessing colonic transit. RESULTS: Caecal contractions were generated using 8-10 V amplitude, 1000 micros pulse width, 120 Hz frequency for 10-30 s, with an intensity of 7-15 mA. The maximal contraction strength was observed after 20-25 s. Electrical stimulation was followed by a relaxation phase of 1.5-2 min during which contractions propagated orally and aborally over at least 10 cm. Spontaneous and stimulated caecal motility values were significantly different for both intraluminal pressure (mean(s.d.) 332(124) and 463(187) mmHg respectively; P < 0.001, 42 experiments) and movement of contents (1.6(0.9) and 3.9(2.8) mm; P < 0.001, 40 experiments). CONCLUSION: Electrical stimulation modulated caecal motility, and provoked localized and propagated colonic contractions.

25 years of movement monitoring on the south peak of Turtle mountain: Understanding the hazard

En 1981, le gouvernement de l'Alberta a amélioré la surveillance de la pointe sud « South Peak » de la montagne Turtle, sur la frontière sud du glissement Frank de 1903. Le programme de surveillance vise à comprendre les taux de déformation des fissures larges et profondes sur « South Peak », et à prédire une seconde avalanche rocheuse sur la montagne. Le programme de surveillance consiste à installer un complément de points statiques et de stations suivies à distance, qui sont mesurés périodiquement. Des données climatiques, microsismiques et de déformation sont recueillies automatiquement à intervalles journaliers, et sont archivées. À la fin des années 1980, le financement pour le développement du programme de surveillance a cessé et quelques installations se sont détériorées. Entre mai 2004 et septembre 2006, des lectures sur les points de surveillance encore fonctionnels ont été compilées et interprétées. De plus, les lectures prélevées auparavant ont été réinterprétées à partir des connaissances récentes sur les modèles de mouvement à court terme et les influences climatiques. Ces observations ont été comparées à des récentes observations aériennes d'un modèle digital d'élévation, provenant de « light detection and ranging (LiDAR) », et des photos de terrain, afin d'estimer plus précisément les taux, l'étendue et la distribution des mouvements pour les derniers 25 ans.