The use of strategic visioning to enhance local tourism planning in periphery communities

Tourism has had a profound impact upon destinations worldwide, and although this impact has been positive for many destinations, there are numerous examples where tourism has adversely impacted upon the environment and social fabric of the destination community (Coccossis 1996; Murphy 1985). The negative impacts of tourism have been attributed, among other things, to inadequate or non-existent planning for development (Gunn 1994; Hall2000). This has led to increased calls for tourism planning to offset some of the negative impacts that tourism can have on the destination community. While a number of approaches have been advocated, a collaborative philosophy, based on the principles of sustainability, is more likely to result in acceptable and successful policies and programmes for tourism destinations (Farrell1986; Jamal & Getz 1995; Maitland 2002; Minca & Getz 1995). Such an approach focuses on cooperation and broader based participation in tourism planning and decision-making between stakeholders to lead to agreement on planning directions and goals, with one of the primary objectives of collaborative arrangements being to develop a strategic vision for a destination (Bramwell & Lane 2000). [Extract from introduction]

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?