Improved likelihood inference in beta regression

We consider the issue of performing accurate small-sample likelihood-based inference in beta regression models, which are useful for modelling continuous proportions that are affected by independent variables. We derive small-sample adjustments to the likelihood ratio statistic in this class of models. The adjusted statistics can be easily implemented from standard statistical software. We present Monte Carlo simulations showing that inference based on the adjusted statistics we propose is much more reliable than that based on the usual likelihood ratio statistic. A real data example is presented.

Skovgaard`s adjustment to likelihood ratio tests in exponential family nonlinear models

Likelihood ratio tests can be substantially size distorted in small- and moderate-sized samples. In this paper, we apply Skovgaard`s [Skovgaard, I.M., 2001. Likelihood asymptotics. Scandinavian journal of Statistics 28, 3-321] adjusted likelihood ratio statistic to exponential family nonlinear models. We show that the adjustment term has a simple compact form that can be easily implemented from standard statistical software. The adjusted statistic is approximately distributed as X(2) with high degree of accuracy. It is applicable in wide generality since it allows both the parameter of interest and the nuisance parameter to be vector-valued. Unlike the modified profile likelihood ratio statistic obtained from Cox and Reid [Cox, D.R., Reid, N., 1987. Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. journal of the Royal Statistical Society B49, 1-39], the adjusted statistic proposed here does not require an orthogonal parameterization. Numerical comparison of likelihood-based tests of varying dispersion favors the test we propose and a Bartlett-corrected version of the modified profile likelihood ratio test recently obtained by Cysneiros and Ferrari [Cysneiros, A.H.M.A., Ferrari, S.L.P., 2006. An improved likelihood ratio test for varying dispersion in exponential family nonlinear models. Statistics and Probability Letters 76 (3), 255-265]. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Some restriction tests in a new class of regression models for proportions

The main purpose of this work is to study the behaviour of Skovgaard`s [Skovgaard, I.M., 2001. Likelihood asymptotics. Scandinavian journal of Statistics 28, 3-32] adjusted likelihood ratio statistic in testing simple hypothesis in a new class of regression models proposed here. The proposed class of regression models considers Dirichlet distributed observations, and the parameters that index the Dirichlet distributions are related to covariates and unknown regression coefficients. This class is useful for modelling data consisting of multivariate positive observations summing to one and generalizes the beta regression model described in Vasconcellos and Cribari-Neto [Vasconcellos, K.L.P., Cribari-Neto, F., 2005. Improved maximum likelihood estimation in a new class of beta regression models. Brazilian journal of Probability and Statistics 19,13-31]. We show that, for our model, Skovgaard`s adjusted likelihood ratio statistics have a simple compact form that can be easily implemented in standard statistical software. The adjusted statistic is approximately chi-squared distributed with a high degree of accuracy. Some numerical simulations show that the modified test is more reliable in finite samples than the usual likelihood ratio procedure. An empirical application is also presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On Occurrence Of Plagiarism In Published Computer Science Thesis Reports At Swedish Universities

In recent years, it has been observed that software clones and plagiarism are becoming an increased threat for one?s creativity. Clones are the results of copying and using other?s work. According to the Merriam – Webster dictionary, “A clone is one that appears to be a copy of an original form”. It is synonym to duplicate. Clones lead to redundancy of codes, but not all redundant code is a clone.On basis of this background knowledge ,in order to safeguard one?s idea and to avoid intentional code duplication for pretending other?s work as if their owns, software clone detection should be emphasized more. The objective of this paper is to review the methods for clone detection and to apply those methods for finding the extent of plagiarism occurrence among the Swedish Universities in Master level computer science department and to analyze the results.The rest part of the paper, discuss about software plagiarism detection which employs data analysis technique and then statistical analysis of the results.Plagiarism is an act of stealing and passing off the idea?s and words of another person?s as one?s own. Using data analysis technique, samples(Master level computer Science thesis report) were taken from various Swedish universities and processed in Ephorus anti plagiarism software detection. Ephorus gives the percentage of plagiarism for each thesis document, from this results statistical analysis were carried out using Minitab Software.The results gives a very low percentage of Plagiarism extent among the Swedish universities, which concludes that Plagiarism is not a threat to Sweden?s standard of education in computer science.This paper is based on data analysis, intelligence techniques, EPHORUS software plagiarism detection tool and MINITAB statistical software analysis.

Sistema de produção sincronizado : uma aplicação em processos produtivos de propriedade contínuos segundo a teoria das restrições

Este trabalho de conclusão investiga o efeito da geração de estoques intermediários nos indicadores principais empregados na Teoria das Restrições (Ganho, Despesa Operacional e Inventário) em uma unidade industrial de processo produtivo de Propriedade contínuo, que emprega embalagens, matérias-primas obtidas em larga escala e cadeias logísticas de longo curso. Este tipo de indústria produz bens de consumo imediato, com pouca variabilidade, de modo “empurrado”. A principal conseqüência é a perda do sincronismo na cadeia logística, resultando em uma grande quantidade de estoques intermediários e custos crescentes, relacionados principalmente ao custo de manutenção destes estoques. Através dos cinco passos de focalização e das ferramentas lógicas da Teoria das Restrições, propõe-se uma alternativa gerencial, que inclui o algoritmo Tambor-Pulmão-Corda e insere a organização em um processo de melhoria contínua, cujos impactos são avaliados por simulação computacional. Através de técnicas estatísticas e software apropriados, constrói-se um modelo de simulação computacional baseado em dados reais de uma planta produtora de cimento. A partir deste modelo, diferentes cenários são testados, descobrindo-se a condição ótima. Chega-se a uma conclusão, considerando a mudança na política de geração de estoques intermediários e seus impactos na redução de custos e riscos.

Utilização de inteligência artificial - (Redes neurais artificiais) no gerenciamento da produção de frangos de corte

Este estudo objetivou demonstrar que é possível explicar os fenômenos que ocorrem na criação de frangos de corte através de redes neurais artificiais. A estatística descritiva e a diferença entre as médias das variáveis dos dados iniciais foram calculadas com o programa computacional SigmaStat® Statistical Software para Windows 2.03. Foi utilizada uma série histórica de dados de produção de frangos de corte, obtidos nos anos de 2001 e 2002, fornecidos por uma Integração Avícola do Rio Grande do Sul, contendo informações de 1.516 criadores com lotes alojados em 2001 e 889 criadores com lotes alojados em 2002. Nos arquivos estavam registrados, para cada lote, suas variáveis de produção, tais como número do lote, data do alojamento, data do abate, idade ao abate, número de pintos alojados, quilogramas de ração consumidos, quilogramas de frangos produzidos, número de aves abatidas, custo do frango produzido, mortalidade, peso médio, ganho de peso diário, índice de conversão alimentar, índice de eficiência, quilogramas líquido de frangos, quilogramas de ração inicial, quilogramas de ração crescimento, quilogramas de ração abate, além de outros. Para a construção das redes neurais artificiais foi utilizado o programa computacional NeuroShell®Predictor, desenvolvido pela Ward Systems Group. Ao programa foi identificado as variáveis escolhidas como “entradas” para o cálculo do modelo preditivo e a variável de “saída” aquela a ser predita. Para o treinamento das redes foram usados 1.000 criadores do banco de dados do alojamento de frangos de corte de 2001. Os restantes 516 criadores de 2001 e todos os 889 criadores de 2002 serviram para a validação das predições, os quais não participaram da etapa de aprendizagem, sendo totalmente desconhecidos pelo programa. Foram gerados 20 modelos na fase de treinamento das redes neurais artificiais, com distintos parâmetros de produção ou variáveis (saídas). Em todos estes modelos, as redes neurais artificiais geradas foram bem ajustadas apresentando sempre, um Coeficiente de Determinação Múltipla (R²) elevado e o menor Quadrado Médio do Erro (QME). Ressalta-se que o R² perfeito é 1 e um coeficiente muito bom deve estar próximo de 1. Todos os 20 modelos, quando validados com os 516 lotes de 2001 e com 889 de 2002, apresentaram também Coeficientes de Determinação Múltipla (R²) elevados e muito próximos de 1, além de apresentarem o Quadrado Médio do Erro (QME) e Erro Médio reduzidos. Foi comprovado não haver diferenças significativas entre as médias dos valores preditos e as médias dos valores reais, em todas as validações efetuadas nos lotes abatidos em 2001 e em 2002, quando aplicados os 20 modelos de redes neurais gerados. Como conclusão, as redes neurais artificiais foram capazes de explicar os fenômenos envolvidos com a produção industrial de frangos de corte. A técnica oferece critérios objetivos, gerados cientificamente, que embasarão as decisões dos responsáveis pela produção industrial de frangos de corte.Também permite realizar simulações e medir a contribuição de cada variável no fenômeno em estudo.

A class of improved heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators

The heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator proposed by White (1980), also known as HC0, is commonly used in practical applications and is implemented into a number of statistical software. Cribari–Neto, Ferrari & Cordeiro (2000) have developed a bias-adjustment scheme that delivers bias-corrected White estimators. There are several variants of the original White estimator that also commonly used by practitioners. These include the HC1, HC2 and HC3 estimators, which have proven to have superior small-sample behavior relative to White’s estimator. This paper defines a general bias-correction mechamism that can be applied not only to White’s estimator, but to variants of this estimator as well, such as HC1, HC2 and HC3. Numerical evidence on the usefulness of the proposed corrections is also presented. Overall, the results favor the sequence of improved HC2 estimators.

Metodologias estatísticas aplicadas a dados de análises químicas da água produzida em um campo maduro de petróleo

Produced water is characterized as one of the most common wastes generated during exploration and production of oil. This work aims to develop methodologies based on comparative statistical processes of hydrogeochemical analysis of production zones in order to minimize types of high-cost interventions to perform identification test fluids - TIF. For the study, 27 samples were collected from five different production zones were measured a total of 50 chemical species. After the chemical analysis was applied the statistical data, using the R Statistical Software, version 2.11.1. Statistical analysis was performed in three steps. In the first stage, the objective was to investigate the behavior of chemical species under study in each area of production through the descriptive graphical analysis. The second step was to identify a function that classify production zones from each sample, using discriminant analysis. In the training stage, the rate of correct classification function of discriminant analysis was 85.19%. The next stage of processing of the data used for Principal Component Analysis, by reducing the number of variables obtained from the linear combination of chemical species, try to improve the discriminant function obtained in the second stage and increase the discrimination power of the data, but the result was not satisfactory. In Profile Analysis curves were obtained for each production area, based on the characteristics of the chemical species present in each zone. With this study it was possible to develop a method using hydrochemistry and statistical analysis that can be used to distinguish the water produced in mature fields of oil, so that it is possible to identify the zone of production that is contributing to the excessive elevation of the water volume.

Endogamia em um rebanho da raça Guzerá

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Old beagle dogs have lower faecal concentrations of some fermentation products and lower peripheral lymphocyte counts than young adult beagles

The effects of age on microbiota composition, gut fermentation end-product formation and peripheral lymphocyte numbers were compared between old and young adult Beagle dogs fed four kibble diets differing in yeast cell wall contents. The experiment had a double 4 x 4 Latin square design, one with four mature dogs (4 years old) and the other with four old dogs (10 years old), with four replicates (diets) per dog. In each period a 15d adaptation period preceded a 5d total collection of faeces for the digestibility trial. on day 21, fresh faecal samples were collected for the determination of bacterial enumeration, pH, biogenic amine and short-chain fatty acid. Flow cytometry was used for immunophenotypic evaluation. Dogs were fed four kibble diets with similar composition with 0, 0.15, 0.30 and 0.45% of yeast cell wall (as-fed), respectively. Data were evaluated using general linear models of Statistical Analysis Systems statistical software (P<0.05). No evidence of a difference in faecal bacteria counts between ages was found (total aerobes, total anaerobes, Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus, Clostridium and Escherichia coli: P. 0.15). Faecal concentrations of butyrate, histamine, agmatine and spermine were lower (P <= 0.05) and faecal pH was higher (P=0.03) in older dogs than in mature adult dogs, suggesting an alteration in bacterial metabolic activity, or in the rate of intestinal absorption of these compounds. Concentrations of T-lymphocytes, T-cytotoxic lymphocytes and B-lymphocytes were also lower (P <= 0.01) in older dogs than in mature adult dogs. The study confirmed alterations in peripheral lymphocytes and revealed a reduced concentration of some fermentation end products in the colon of old dogs.

Clima e cultura de segurança do paciente em uma maternidade escola: percepção dos profissionais de enfermagem em terapia intensiva

Since the publication of the report "To Err is Human" by the Institute of Medicine (IOM) , which estimated that between 44.000 to 98.000 Americans die annually as a result of errors in health care, patient safety spent gaining prominence, emerging studies assess the safety culture by measuring the safety climate. In this context, the aim of this study was to identify safety culture perceived by nursing professionals working in the intensive care unit of a maternity school in Natal/RN through the Security Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ). This was a descriptive study, cross-sectional and quantitative approach undertaken in the Intensive Care Unit Maternal and Neonatal a maternity school in Natal/RN. The project was submitted to and approved by Brazil Platform Zip/UFRN under number 309 540 and CAAE 16489713.7.0000.5537. It was used to collect data two instruments: a questionnaire in order to collect socio-demographic data of the subjects and the Questionário Atitudes de Segurança , a cultural adaptation to Portuguese of the instrument of the World Health Organization titled Safety Attitudes Questionnaire - (SAQ ) Short Form 2006. The collected data were analyzed quantitatively by the organization in electronic databases in Microsoft Excel 2010 spreadsheet and exported to statistical software for free access to be coded, tabulated and analyzed using descriptive statistics. The study included a total of 50 nurses, 31 and 19 of the NICU Maternal ICU, predominantly female, mean age 35 years, median time of 10 years training and working in maternity, mostly, less than 05 anos. As a result, two articles were produced. The first refers to the first two domains of the instrument entitled "climate of teamwork" and "climate security" . The scores of the two areas were slightly higher in Maternal ICU compared to the NICU, but no sector has reached the ideal minimum score of 75: in the first domain Maternal ICU had an average of 74.77, with medians of 75 and 100, while Neonatal ICU reached an average of 69.61 with median also 75 and 100, while the second field means were 69.35 and 66.01 for Maternal and Neonatal ICUs respectively, with a median of 100 in the two sectors. The second article relates to the field "Perception Management Unit and Hospital", which 9 assessed the perception of management units and motherhood by professionals. In general, the items of the domain in question also obtained scores below the ideal minimum: 63.68 to 51.02 and maternal ICU for neonatal, featuring a clear separation between the management and the professionals who work in direct care. These findings indicate a warning sign for the institution and point to the need to implement actions aimed at patient safety

A percepção dos docentes da UFRN sobre o programa de apoio a planos de reestruturação e ampliação das universidades federais - REUNI

In recent decades higher education in Brazil has gone through several changes. The Programa de Reestruturação e Expansão das Universidades Federais REUNI has been the greatest overhaul performed by the government in public universities in the last years. REUNI is presented as the biggest reform in tertiary education in contemporary times, having as the main goal a gradual increase in the average rate of conclusion in live learning graduation courses up to 90%, as well as a rate expansion of graduating students in face to face classes per professor. This research aims at studying the perception of professors from UFRN concerning the REUNI program in execution from 2008 until 2012. The study seeks to understand how professors evaluate the program and what the dimensions that most influence in this evaluation are. The study made use of a research tool (survey) which was sent through the internal system of the university, SIGAdmin, to all professors of superior teaching from UFRN. The answers generated by the survey were processed using SPSS statistical software (Statistical Package for Social Science). Factorial Analysis and Multiple Linear Regression were used as an analysis technique. 180 answers were obtained, reaching all UFRN Centers and some academic units, as well as some campuses in the countryside of the state. Through the research was possible to analyze how professors from UFRN perceive the REUNI program implemented in the institution. The results point to the program approval by the professors. Statistical tests showed that the average values obtained in the Centers and academic units are basically the same. It was demonstrated that the extent that most influenced in the answers is linked to practical outcomes of the program, whereas the knowledge of REUNI goals was the least that impacted on the marks given to the program. Another dimension which influenced the perception of professors relates to the influence of REUNI in their activities. It was observed that professors from UFRN don t see REUNI as an impediment to them

Variabilidade espacial de atributos da fertilidade de um Latossolo Vermelho Distroférrico sob Sistema Plantio Direto

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modelo de tempo de falha acelerado com fração de cura : uma abordagem unificada

In this work we study the accelerated failure-time generalized Gamma regression models with a unified approach. The models attempt to estimate simultaneously the effects of covariates on the acceleration/deceleration of the timing of a given event and the surviving fraction. The method is implemented in the free statistical software R. Finally the model is applied to a real dataset referring to the time until the return of the disease in patients diagnosed with breast cancer

Single-embryo transfer reduces clinical pregnancy rates and live births in fresh IVF and Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection (ICSI) cycles: a meta-analysis

Background: It has become an accepted procedure to transfer more than one embryo to the patient to achieve acceptable ongoing pregnancy rates. However, transfers of more than a single embryo increase the probability of establishing a multiple gestation. Single-embryo transfer can minimize twin pregnancies but may also lower live birth rates. This meta-analysis aimed to compare current data on single-embryo versus double-embryo transfer in fresh IVF/ICSI cycles with respect to implantation, ongoing pregnancy and live birth rates.Methods: Search strategies included on-line surveys of databases from 1995 to 2008. Data management and analysis were conducted using the Stats Direct statistical software. The fixed-effect model was used for odds ratio (OR). Fixed-effect effectiveness was evaluated by the Mantel Haenszel method. Seven trials fulfilled the inclusion criteria.Results: When pooling results under the fixed-effect model, the implantation rate was not significantly different between double-embryo transfer (34.5%) and single-embryo transfer group (34.7%) (P = 0.96; OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.78, 1.25). on the other hand, double-embryo transfer produced a statistically significantly higher ongoing clinical pregnancy rate (44.5%) than single-embryo transfer (28.3%) (P < 0.0001; OR: 2.06, 95% CI = 1.64,2.60). At the same time, pooling results presented a significantly higher live birth rate when double-embryo transfer (42.5%) (P < 0.001; OR: 1.87, 95% CI = 1.44,2.42) was compared with single-embryo transfer (28.4%).Conclusion: Meta-analysis with 95% confidence showed that, despite similar implantation rates, fresh double-embryo transfer had a 1.64 to 2.60 times greater ongoing pregnancy rate and 1.44 to 2.42 times greater live birth rate than single-embryo transfer in a population suitable for ART treatment.