995 resultados para source term


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We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

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The importance of aerosol emissions for near term climate projections is investigated by analysing simulations with the HadGEM2-ES model under two different emissions scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. It is shown that the near term warming projected under RCP2.6 is greater than under RCP4.5, even though the greenhouse gas forcing is lower. Rapid and substantial reductions in sulphate aerosol emissions due to a reduction of coal burning in RCP2.6 lead to a reduction in the negative shortwave forcing due to aerosol direct and indirect effects. Indirect effects play an important role over the northern hemisphere oceans, especially the subtropical northeastern Pacific where an anomaly of 5-10\,Wm$^{-2}$ develops. The pattern of surface temperature change is consistent with the expected response to this surface radiation anomaly, whilst also exhibiting features that reflect redistribution of energy, and feedbacks, within the climate system. These results demonstrate the importance of aerosol emissions as a key source of uncertainty in near term projections of global and regional climate.

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We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using radiative forcing from the task force on hemispheric transport of air pollution source-receptor global chemical transport model simulations. These simulations model the transport of 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, nitric oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). From the equilibrium radiative forcing results we calculate global climate metrics, global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) and show how these depend on emission region, and can vary as functions of time. For the aerosol species, the GWP(100) values are −37±12, −46±20, and 350±200 for SO2, POM and BC respectively for the direct effects only. The corresponding GTP(100) values are −5.2±2.4, −6.5±3.5, and 50±33. This analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands. This shows that the latitudinal pattern of the temperature response to emissions of the NTCFs does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. For instance temperatures in the Arctic latitudes are particularly sensitive to NTCF emissions in the northern mid-latitudes. At the 100-yr time horizon the ARTPs show NOx emissions can have a warming effect in the northern mid and high latitudes, but cooling in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions of most NTCFs is approximately twice as large as would be implied by the global average.

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Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) plays a key role in eutrophication, a global problem decreasing habitat quality and in-stream biodiversity. Mitigation strategies are required to prevent SRP fluxes from exceeding critical levels, and must be robust in the face of potential changes in climate, land use and a myriad of other influences. To establish the longevity of these strategies it is therefore crucial to consider the sensitivity of catchments to multiple future stressors. This study evaluates how the water quality and hydrology of a major river system in the UK (the River Thames) respond to alterations in climate, land use and water resource allocations, and investigates how these changes impact the relative performance of management strategies over an 80-year period. In the River Thames, the relative contributions of SRP from diffuse and point sources vary seasonally. Diffuse sources of SRP from agriculture dominate during periods of high runoff, and point sources during low flow periods. SRP concentrations rose under any future scenario which either increased a) surface runoff or b) the area of cultivated land. Under these conditions, SRP was sourced from agriculture, and the most effective single mitigation measures were those which addressed diffuse SRP sources. Conversely, where future scenarios reduced flow e.g. during winters of reservoir construction, the significance of point source inputs increased, and mitigation measures addressing these issues became more effective. In catchments with multiple point and diffuse sources of SRP, an all-encompassing effective mitigation approach is difficult to achieve with a single strategy. In order to attain maximum efficiency, multiple strategies might therefore be employed at different times and locations, to target the variable nature of dominant SRP sources and pathways.

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Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by an estimated 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation of open solar flux has been reproduced by Solanki et al. [2000] using a model which demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. We here use a new technique to evaluate solar cycle length and find that it does vary in association with the rate of change of F-s in the way predicted. The long-term variation of the rate of flux emergence is found to be very similar in form to that in F-s, which may offer a potential explanation of why F-s appears to be a useful proxy for extrapolating solar total irradiance back in time. We also find that most of the variation of cosmic ray fluxes incident on Earth is explained by the strength of the heliospheric field (quantified by F-s) and use observations of the abundance of the isotope Be-10 (produced by cosmic rays and deposited in ice sheets) to study the decrease in F-s during the Maunder minimum. The interior motions at the base of the convection zone, where the solar dynamo is probably located, have recently been revealed using the helioseismology technique and found to exhibit a 1.3-year oscillation. This periodicity is here reported in observations of the interplanetary magnetic field and geomagnetic activity but is only present after 1940, When present, it shows a strong 22-year variation, peaking near the maximum of even-numbered sunspot cycles and showing minima at the peaks of odd-numbered cycles. We discuss the implications of these long-term solar and heliospheric variations for Earth's environment.

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Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" or "open" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation is reflected in studies of the heliospheric field using isotopes deposited in ice sheets and meteorites by the action of galactic comic rays. The variation has also been reproduced using a model that demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. The cosmic ray flux at energies > 3 GeV is found to have decayed by about 15% during the 20(th) century (and by about 4% at > 13 GeV). We show that the changes in the open flux do reflect changes in the photospheric and sub-surface field which offers an explanation of why open flux appears to be a good proxy for solar irradiance extrapolation. Correlations between F-s, solar cycle length, L, and 11-year smoothed sunspot number, R-11, explain why the various irradiance reconstructions for the last 150 years are similar in form. Possible implications of the inferred changes in cosmic ray flux and irradiance for global temperatures on Earth are discussed.

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We analyze the causes of the century-long increase in geomagnetic activity, quantified by annual means of the aa index, using observations of interplanetary space, galactic cosmic rays, the ionosphere, and the auroral electrojet, made during the last three solar cycles. The effects of changes in ionospheric conductivity, the Earth's dipole tilt, and magnetic moment are shown to be small; only changes in near-Earth interplanetary space make a significant contribution to the long-term increase in activity. We study the effects of the interplanetary medium by applying dimensional analysis to generate the optimum solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling function, having an unprecedentedly high correlation coefficient of 0.97. Analysis of the terms of the coupling function shows that the largest contributions to the drift in activity over solar cycles 20-22 originate from rises in the average interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, solar wind concentration, and speed; average IMF orientation has grown somewhat less propitious for causing geomagnetic activity. The combination of these factors explains almost all of the 39% rise in aa observed over the last three solar cycles. Whereas the IMF strength varies approximately in phase with sunspot numbers, neither its orientation nor the solar wind density shows any coherent solar cycle variation. The solar wind speed peaks strongly in the declining phase of even-numbered cycles and can be identified as the chief cause of the phase shift between the sunspot numbers and the aa index. The rise in the IMF magnitude, the largest single contributor to the drift in geomagnetic activity, is shown to be caused by a rise in the solar coronal magnetic field, consistent with a rise in the coronal source field, modeled from photospheric observations, and an observed decay in cosmic ray fluxes.

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Recent observations from the Dynamics Explorer 1 (DE-1) spacecraft have shown that the dayside auroral zone is an important source of very low-energy superthermal O^+ ions for the polar magnetosphere. When observed at 2000- to 5000-km altitude, the core of the O^+ distribution exhibits transverse heating to energies on the order of 10 eV, significant upward heat flux, and subsonic upward flow at significant flux levels exceeding 10^8 cm^{-2}s^{-1}. The term "upwelling ions" has been adopted to label these flows, which stand out in sharp contrast to the light ion polar wind flows observed in the same altitude range in the polar cap and subauroral magnetosphere. We have chosen a typical upwelling ion event for detailed study, correlating retarding ion mass spectrometer observations of the low-energy plasma with energetic ion observations and local electromagnetic field observations. The upwelling ion signature is colocated with the magnetospheric cleft as marked by precipitating energetic magnetosheath ions. The apparent ionospheric heating is clearly linked with the magnetic field signatures of strong field-aligned currents in the vicinity of the dayside polar cap boundary. Electric field and ion plasma measurements indicate that a very strong and localized convection channel or jet exists coincident with the other signatures of this event. These observations indicate that transverse ion heating to temperatures on the order of 10^5 K in the 2000- to 5000-km ionosphere is an important factor in producing heavy ion outflows into the polar magnetosphere. This result contrasts with recent suggestions that electron heating to temperatures of order 10^4 K is the most important parameter with regard to O^+ outflow.

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Innumerous protocols, using the mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells as model for in vitro study of neurons functional properties and features, have been developed. Most of these protocols are short lasting, which, therefore, does not allow a careful analysis of the neurons maturation, aging, and death processes. We describe here a novel and efficient long-lasting protocol for in vitro ES cells differentiation into neuronal cells. It consists of obtaining embryoid bodies, followed by induction of neuronal differentiation with retinoic acid of nonadherent embryoid bodies (three-dimensional model), which further allows their adherence and formation of adherent neurospheres (AN, bi-dimensional model). The AN can be maintained for at least 12 weeks in culture under repetitive mechanical splitting, providing a constant microenvironment (in vitro niche) for the neuronal progenitor cells avoiding mechanical dissociation of AN. The expression of neuron-specific proteins, such as nestin, sox1, beta III-tubulin, microtubule-associated protein 2, neurofilament medium protein, Tau, neuronal nuclei marker, gamma-aminobutyric acid, and 5-hydroxytryptamine, were confirmed in these cells maintained during 3 months under several splitting. Additionally, expression pattern of microtubule-associated proteins, such as lissencephaly (Lis1) and nuclear distribution element-like (Ndel1), which were shown to be essential for differentiation and migration of neurons during embryogenesis, was also studied. As expected, both proteins were expressed in undifferentiated ES cells, AN, and nonrosette neurons, although presenting different spatial distribution in AN. In contrast to previous studies, using cultured neuronal cells derived from embryonic and adult tissues, only Ndel1 expression was observed in the centrosome region of early neuroblasts from AN. Mature neurons, obtained from ES cells in this work, display ionic channels and oscillations of membrane electrical potential typical of electrically excitable cells, which is a characteristic feature of the functional central nervous system (CNS) neurons. Taken together, our study demonstrated that AN are a long-term culture of neuronal cells that can be used to analyze the process of neuronal differentiation dynamics. Thus, the protocol described here provides a new experimental model for studying neurological diseases associated with neuronal differentiation during early development, as well as it represents a novel source of functional cells that can be used as tools for testing the effects of toxins and/or drugs on neuronal cells.

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Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is based on the association of a light source and tight sensitive agents in order to cause the selective death of tumor cells. To evaluate topical 5-aminolaevulinic acid (5-ALA) and diode laser photodynamic single session therapy single session for non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), a long-term follow-up was performed. Nineteen Bowen`s disease (BD) and 15 basal cell. carcinoma (BCC) lesions were submitted to 6-h topical and occlusive 20% 5-ALA plus DMSO and EDTA, and later were exposed to 630 nm diode laser, 100 or 300 J cm(-2) dose. At 3 months tumor-free rate was 91.2% (31/34) whereas at 60 months, 57.7% (15/26), slightly higher in BCC (63.6%; 7/11). The relation between the reduction of the clinical response and the increase of tumor dimension observed at 18 months was lost at 60 months. The sBCC recurrence was earlier compared to the nBCC one. ALA-PDT offered important advantages: it is minimally invasive, an option for patients under risk of surgical complications; clinical feasibility; treatment of multiple lesions in only one session or lesions in poor heating sites and superior esthetical results. However, the recurrence rate increase after ALA-PDT diode laser single session can be observed at tong-term follow-up, and the repetitive sessions, an additional. advantage of the method, is strongly recommended. The clinical response and recurrence time seem to be related to the laser light dose and NMSC types/sub-types, thickness and dimension, which must be considered for the choice of the ALA-PDT. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Recently a textile azo dye processing plant effluent was identified as one of the sources of mutagenic activity detected in the Cristais River, a drinking water source in Brazil [G.A. Umbuzeiro, D.A. Roubicek, C.M. Rech, M.I.Z. Sato, L.D. Claxton, Investigating the sources of the mutagenic activity found in a river using the Salmonella assay and different water extraction procedures, Chemosphere 54 (2004) 1589-1597]. Besides presenting high mutagenic activity in the Salmonella/microsome assay, the mutagenic nitro-aminoazobenzenes dyes CI Disperse Blue 373, Cl Disperse Violet 93, and CI Disperse Orange 37 [G.A. Umbuzeiro, H.S. Freeman, S.H. Warren, D.P Oliveira, Y. Terao, T. Watanabe, L.D. Claxton, the contribution of azo dyes in the mutagenic activity of the Cristais river, Chemosphere 60 (2005) 55-64] as well as benzidine, a known carcinogenic compound [T.M. Mazzo, A.A. Saczk, G.A. Umbuzeiro, M.V.B. Zanoni, Analysis of aromatic amines in surface waters receiving wastewater from textile industry by liquid chromatographic with eletrochemical detection, Anal. Lett., in press] were found in this effluent. After similar to 6 km from the discharge of this effluent, a drinking water treatment plant treats and distributes the water to a population of approximate 60,000. As shown previously, the mutagens in the DWTP intake water are not completely removed by the treatment. The water used for human consumption presented mutagenic activity related to nitro-aromatics and aromatic amines compounds probably derived from the cited textile processing plant effluent discharge [G.A. Umbuzeiro, D.A. Roubicek, C.M. Rech, M.I.Z.. Sato, L.D. Claxton, Investigating the sources of the mutagenic activity found in a river using the Salmonella assay and different water extraction procedures, Chemosphere 54 (2004) 1589-1597; G.A. Umbuzeiro, H.S. Freeman, S.H. Warren, D.P. Oliveira, Y. Terao, T. Watanabe, L.D. Claxton, the contribution of azo dyes in the multagenic activity of the Cristais river, Chemosphere 60 (2005) 55-64]. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the possible risks involved in the human consumption of this contaminated water. With that objective, one sample of the cited industrial effluent was tested for carcinogenicity in the aberrant crypt foci medium-term assay in colon of Wistar rats. The rats received the effluent in natura through drinking water at concentrations of 0.1%, 1%, and 10%. The effluent mutagenicity was also confirmed in the Salmonella/microsome assay with the strains TA98 and YG1041. There was an increased number of preneoplastic lesions in the colon of rats exposed to concentrations of 1% and 10% of the effluent, and a positive response for both Salmonella strains tested. These results indicate that the discharge of the effluent should be avoided in waters used for human consumption and show the sensitivity of the ACF crypt foci assay as an important tool to evaluate the carcinogenic potential of environmental complex mixtures. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This study investigates the possible differences between actors' and nonactors' vocal projection strategies using acoustic and perceptual analyses. A total of 11 male actors and 10 male nonactors volunteered as subjects, reading an extended text sample in habitual, moderate, and loud levels. The samples were analyzed for sound pressure level (SPL), alpha ratio (difference between the average SPL of the 1-5 kHz region and the average SPL of the 50 Hz-1 kHz region), fundamental frequency (F0), and long-term average spectrum (LTAS). Through LTAS, the mean frequency of the first formant (171) range, the mean frequency of the actor's formant, the level differences between the F1 frequency region and the F0 region (L1-L0), and the level differences between the strongest peak at 0-1 kHz and that at 3-4 kHz were measured. Eight voice specialists evaluated perceptually the degree of projection, loudness, and tension in the samples. The actors had a greater alpha ratio, stronger level of the actor's formant range, and a higher degree of perceived projection and loudness in all loudness levels. SPL, however, did not differ significantly between the actors and nonactors, and no differences were found in the mean formant frequencies ranges. The alpha ratio and the relative level of the actor's formant range seemed to be related to the degree of perceived loudness. From the physiological point of view, a more favorable glottal setting' providing a higher glottal closing speed, may be characteristic of these actors' projected voices. So, the projected voices, in this group of actors, were more related to the glottic source than to the resonance of the vocal tract.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Determining the variability of carbon dioxide emission from soils is an important task as soils are among the largest sources of carbon in biosphere. In this work the temporal variability of bare soil CO2 emissions was measured over a 3-week period. Temporal changes in soil CO2 emission were modelled in terms of the changes that occurred in solar radiation (SR), air temperature (T-air), air humidity (AR), evaporation (EVAP) and atmospheric pressure (ATM) registered during the time period that the experiment was conducted. The multiple regression analysis (backward elimination procedure) includes almost all the meteorological variables and their interactions into the final model (R-2 = 0.98), but solar radiation showed to be the one of the most relevant variables. The present study indicates that meteorological data could be taken into account as the main forces driving the temporal variability of carbon dioxide emission from bare soils, where microbial activity is the sole source of carbon dioxide emitted. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.