Analyse en identification partielle de la décision d'émigrer des étudiants africains

La migration internationale d’étudiants est un investissement couteux pour les familles dans beaucoup de pays en voie de développement. Cependant, cet investissement est susceptible de générer des bénéfices financiers et sociaux relativement importants aux investisseurs, tout autant que des externalités pour d’autres membres de la famille. Cette thèse s’intéresse à deux aspects importants de la migration des étudiants internationaux : (i) Qui part? Quels sont les déterminants de la probabilité de migration? (ii) Qui paie? Comment la famille s’organise-t-elle pour couvrir les frais de la migration? (iii) Qui y gagne? Ce flux migratoire est-il au bénéfice du pays d’origine? Entreprendre une telle étude met le chercheur en face de défis importants, notamment, l’absence de données complètes et fiables; la dispersion géographique des étudiants migrants en étant la cause première. La première contribution importante de ce travail est le développement d’une méthode de sondage en « boule de neige » pour des populations difficiles à atteindre, ainsi que d’estimateurs corrigeant les possibles biais de sélection. A partir de cette méthodologie, j’ai collecté des données incluant simultanément des étudiants migrants et non-migrants du Cameroun en utilisant une plateforme internet. Un second défi relativement bien documenté est la présence d’endogénéité du choix d’éducation. Nous tirons avantage des récents développements théoriques dans le traitement des problèmes d’identification dans les modèles de choix discrets pour résoudre cette difficulté, tout en conservant la simplicité des hypothèses nécessaires. Ce travail constitue l’une des premières applications de cette méthodologie à des questions de développement. Le premier chapitre de la thèse étudie la décision prise par la famille d’investir dans la migration étudiante. Il propose un modèle structurel empirique de choix discret qui reflète à la fois le rendement brut de la migration et la contrainte budgétaire liée au problème de choix des agents. Nos résultats démontrent que le choix du niveau final d’éducation, les résultats académiques et l’aide de la famille sont des déterminants importants de la probabilité d’émigrer, au contraire du genre qui ne semble pas affecter très significativement la décision familiale. Le second chapitre s’efforce de comprendre comment les agents décident de leur participation à la décision de migration et comment la famille partage les profits et décourage le phénomène de « passagers clandestins ». D’autres résultats dans la littérature sur l’identification partielle nous permettent de considérer des comportements stratégiques au sein de l’unité familiale. Les premières estimations suggèrent que le modèle « unitaire », où un agent représentatif maximise l’utilité familiale ne convient qu’aux familles composées des parents et de l’enfant. Les aidants extérieurs subissent un cout strictement positif pour leur participation, ce qui décourage leur implication. Les obligations familiales et sociales semblent expliquer les cas de participation d’un aidant, mieux qu’un possible altruisme de ces derniers. Finalement, le troisième chapitre présente le cadre théorique plus général dans lequel s’imbriquent les modèles développés dans les précédents chapitres. Les méthodes d’identification et d’inférence présentées sont spécialisées aux jeux finis avec information complète. Avec mes co-auteurs, nous proposons notamment une procédure combinatoire pour une implémentation efficace du bootstrap aux fins d’inférences dans les modèles cités ci-dessus. Nous en faisons une application sur les déterminants du choix familial de soins à long terme pour des parents âgés.

Photoconductivity studies on some semiconducting thin films for photovoltaic applications

Photoconductivity (PC) processes may be the most suitable technique for obtaining information about the states in the gap. It finds applications in photovoItaics, photo detection and radiation measurements. The main task in the area of photovoltaics, is to increase the efficiency of the device and also to develop new materials with good optoelectronic properties useful for energy conversion, keeping the idea of cost effectiveness. Photoconduction includes generation and recombination of carriers and their transport to the electrodes. So thermal relaxation process, charge carrier statistics, effects of electrodes and several mechanisms of recombination are involved in photoconductivity.A major effect of trapping is to make the experimentally observed decay time of photocurrent, longer than carrier lifetime. If no trapping centers are present, then observed photocurrent will decay in the same way as the density of free carriers and the observed decay time will be equal to carrier lifetime. If the density of free carriers is much less than density of trapped carriers, the entire decay of photocurrent is effectively dominated by the rate of trap emptying rather than by the rate of recombination.In the present study, the decay time of carriers was measured using photoconductive decay (PCD) technique. For the measurements, the film was loaded in a liquid Helium cryostat and the temperature was controlled using Lakshore Auto tuning temperature controller (Model 321). White light was used to illuminate the required area of the sample. Heat radiation from the light source was avoided by passing the light beam through a water filter. The decay current. after switching off the illumination. was measured using a Kiethely 2000 multi meter. Sets of PCD measurements were taken varying sample temperature, sample preparation temperature, thickness of the film, partial pressure of Oxygen and concentration of a particular element in a compound. Decay times were calculated using the rate window technique, which is a decay sampling technique particularly suited to computerized analysis. For PCD curves with two well-defined regions, two windows were chosen, one at the fast decay region and the other at the slow decay region. The curves in a particular window were exponentially fitted using Microsoft Excel 2000 programme. These decay times were plotted against sample temperature and sample preparation temperature to study the effect of various defects in the film. These studies were done in order to optimize conditions of preparation technique so as to get good photosensitive samples. useful for photovoltaic applications.Materials selected for the study were CdS, In2Se3, CuIn2Se3 and CuInS2• Photoconductivity studies done on these samples are organised in six chapters including introduction and conclusion.

Computationally Efficient Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Returns and Volatilities in ARCH and GARCH Processes

We propose a novel, simple, efficient and distribution-free re-sampling technique for developing prediction intervals for returns and volatilities following ARCH/GARCH models. In particular, our key idea is to employ a Box–Jenkins linear representation of an ARCH/GARCH equation and then to adapt a sieve bootstrap procedure to the nonlinear GARCH framework. Our simulation studies indicate that the new re-sampling method provides sharp and well calibrated prediction intervals for both returns and volatilities while reducing computational costs by up to 100 times, compared to other available re-sampling techniques for ARCH/GARCH models. The proposed procedure is illustrated by an application to Yen/U.S. dollar daily exchange rate data.

Personal finance of gulf-returned Keralites

The study is about the Gulf-returned Keralites and their personal financial planning during the Gulf-period. The researcher has examined the nature of their income, expenditure, savings and investments during the Gulf-period and after their return. Even though the Gulf-returned Keralites had remitted huge amounts to Kerala, it appears that the majority of them are struggling hard to make both ends meet. The sample consists of 318 Gulf-returned Keralites selected by employing stratified random sampling technique, from 5 districts. After a pilot study, the data was collected through personal interviews using a structured schedule. In order to find out whether the respondents had personal financial planning during the Gulf-period, the researcher has evaluated 15 elements of personal financeusing a five-point-scale rating technique. The hypotheses were tested using correlation, t-test, chi-square and ANOVA, through SPSS.

Evaluation of the agricultural vocational training programmes conducted by the Krishi Vigyan Kendras (Farm Science Centres) in Indian Punjab

Krishin Vigyan Kendras-KVKs (Farm Science Centres) have been established by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research in 569 districts. The trust areas of KVKs are refinement and demonstration of technologies, and training of farmers and extension functionaries. Imparting vocational trainings in agriculture and allied fields for the rural youth is one of its mandates. The study was undertaken to do a formative and summative (outcome and impact) evaluation of the beekeeping and mushroom growing vocational training programmes in the Indian state of Punjab. One-group pre and post evaluation design was employed for conducting a formative and outcome evaluation. The knowledge tests were administered to 35 beekeeping and 25 mushroom cultivation trainees, before and after the training programmes organized in 2004. The trainees significantly gained in knowledge. A separate sample of 640 trainees, trained prior to 2004, was selected for finding the adoption status. Out of 640, a sample of 200 was selected by proportionate sampling technique out of three categories, namely: non-adopters, discontinued-adopters and continued-adopters for evaluating the long-term impact of these training programmes. Ex-post-facto one-shot case study design was applied for this impact analysis. The vocational training programmes have resulted in continued-adoption of beekeeping and mushroom cultivation enterprises by 20% and 51% trained farmers, respectively. Age and trainee occupation had significant influence on the adoption decision of beekeeping vocation, whereas education and family income significantly affected the adoption decision of mushroom cultivation. The continued adopters of beekeeping and mushroom growing had increased their family income by 49% and 24%, respectively. These training programmes are augmenting the dwindling farm income of the farmers in Indian Punjab.

Identifying the component structure of job satisfaction by principal components analysis among extension officers in North West Province, South Africa

The component structure of a 34-item scale measuring different aspects of job satisfaction was investigated among extension officers in North West Province, South Africa. A simple random sampling technique was used to select 40 extension officers from which data were collected. A structured questionnaire consisting of 34 job satisfaction and 10 personal characteristic items was administered to the extension officers. Items on job satisfaction were measured at interval level and analyzedwith Principal ComponentAnalysis. Most of the respondents (82.5%) weremales, between 40 to 45 years, 85% were married and 87.5% had a diploma as their educational qualification. Furthermore, 54% of the households size between 4 to 6 persons, whereas 75% were Christians. The majority of the extension officers lived in their job area (82.5), while 80% covered at least 3 communities and 3 farmer groups. In terms of number of farmers covered, only 40% of the extension officers covered more than 500 farmers and 45% travelled more than 40 km to reach their farmers. From the job satisfaction items 9 components were extracted to show areas for job satisfaction among extension officers. These were in-service training, research policies, communicating recommended practices, financial support for self and family, quality of technical help, opportunity to advance education, management and control of operations, rewarding system and sanctions. The results have several implications for motivating extension officers for high job performance especially with large number of clients and small number of extension agents.

Identifying the factors governing attitude towards the e-Agriservice among dairy farmers in Maharashtra, India

Information and communication technology (ICT) projects have a great potential to revolutionise the information delivery system by bridging the gap between farmers and extension personnel. aAQUA (Almost All Questions Answered) portal was launched by the Developmental Informatics Laboratory (DIL) at Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Mumbai, Maharashtra, India in 2003 as an information providing system to deliver technology options and tailored information for the problems and queries raised by Indian dairy farmers. To measure the effectiveness of this service the attitudinal dimensions of the users of aAQUA e-Agriservice were investigated using a 22 item scale. A simple random sampling technique was used to select 120 dairy farmers from which data were collected and subjected to factor analysis to identify the underlying constructs in this research. From the attitude items, four components were extracted and named as the pessimistic, utility, technical and efficacy perspective, which influenced the development of varied level of attitudinal inclination towards the e-Agriservice. These components explained 64.40 per cent of variation in the attitude of the users towards the aAQUA e-Agriservice. This study provides a framework for technically efficient service provision that might help to reduce the pessimistic attitude of target population to adopt e-Agriservice in their farming system. The results should also be helpful for researchers, academics, ICT based service providers and policy makers to consider these perspectives while planning and implementing ICT projects.

In vitro microbial inoculum: A review of its function and properties

This review considers microbial inocula used in in vitro systems from the perspective of their ability to degrade or ferment a particular substrate, rather than the microbial species that it contains. By necessity, this required an examination of bacterial, protozoal and fungal populations of the rumen and hindgut with respect to factors influencing their activity. The potential to manipulate these populations through diet or sampling time are examined, as is inoculum preparation and level. The main alternatives to fresh rumen fluid (i.e., caecal digesta or faeces) are discussed with respect to end-point degradabilities and fermentation dynamics. Although the potential to use rumen contents obtained from donor animals at slaughter offers possibilities, the requirement to store it and its subsequent loss of activity are limitations. Statistical modelling of data, although still requiring a deal of developmental work, may offer an alternative approach. Finally, with respect to the range of in vitro methodologies and equipment employed, it is suggested that a degree of uniformity could be obtained through generation of a set of guidelines relating to the host animal, sampling technique and inoculum preparation. It was considered unlikely that any particular system would be accepted as the 'standard' procedure. However, before any protocol can be adopted, additional data are required (e.g., a method to assess inoculum 'quality' with respect to its fermentative and/or degradative activity), preparation/inoculation techniques need to be refined and a methodology to store inocula without loss of efficacy developed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-sharing of agricultural technology transfer in Nigeria: perceptions of farmers and extension professionals

Cost-sharing, which involves government-farmer partnership in the funding of agricultural extension service, is one of the reforms aimed at achieving sustainable funding for extension systems. This study examined the perceptions of farmers and extension professionals on this reform agenda in Nigeria. The study was carried out in six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. A multi-stage random sampling technique was applied in the selection of respondents. A sample size of 268 farmers and 272 Agricultural Development Programme (ADP) extension professionals participated in the study. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used in analysing the data generated from this research. The results show that majority of farmers (80.6%) and extension professionals (85.7%) had favourable perceptions towards cost-sharing. Furthermore, the overall difference in their perceptions was not significant (t =0.03). The study concludes that the strong favourable perception held by the respondents is a pointer towards acceptance of the reform. It therefore recommends that government, extension administrators and policymakers should design and formulate effective strategies and regulations for the introduction and use of cost-sharing as an alternative approach to financing agricultural technology transfer in Nigeria.

Effect of dietary fish oil on biohydrogenation of fatty acids and milk fatty acid content in cows

Mechanisms underlying milk fat conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) responses to supplements of fish oil were investigated using five lactating cows each fitted with a rumen cannula in a simple experiment consisting of two consecutive 14-day experimental periods. During the first period cows were offered 18 kg dry matter (DM) per day of a basal (B) diet formulated from grass silage and a cereal based-concentrate (0.6 : 0.4; forage : concentrate ratio, on a DM basis) followed by the same diet supplemented with 250 g fish oil per day (FO) in the second period. The flow of non-esterified fatty acids leaving the rumen was measured using the omasal sampling technique in combination with a triple indigestible marker method based on Li-Co-EDTA, Yb-acetate and Cr-mordanted straw. Fish oil decreased DM intake and milk yield, but had no effect on milk constituent content. Milk fat trans-11C(18:1), total trans-C-18:1, cis-9 trans-11 CLA, total CLA, C-18 :2 (n- 6) and total C-18:2 content were increased in response to fish oil from 1.80, 4.51, 0.39, 0. 56, 0.90 and 1.41 to 9.39, 14.39, 1.66, 1.85, 1.25 and 4.00 g/100 g total fatty acids, respectively. Increases in the cis-9, trans-11 isomer accounted for proportionately 0.89 of the CLA response to fish oil. Furthermore, fish oil decreased the flow of C-18:0 (283 and 47 g/day for B and FO, respectively) and increased that of trans-C-18:1 fatty acids entering the omasal canal (38 and 182 g/day). Omasal flows of trans-C-18:1 acids with double bonds in positions from delta-4 to -15 inclusive were enhanced, but the effects were isomer dependent and primarily associated with an increase in trans-11C(18:1) leaving the rumen (17.1 and 121.1 g/day for B and FO, respectively). Fish oil had no effect on total (4.36 and 3.50 g/day) or cis-9, trans-11 CLA (2.86 and 2.08 g/day) entering the omasal canal. Flows of cis-9, trans-11 CLA were lower than the secretion of this isomer in milk. Comparison with the transfer of the trans-9, trans-11 isomer synthesized in the rumen suggested that proportionately 0.66 and 0.97 of cis-9, trans-11 CLA was derived from endogenous conversion of trans-11 C-18:1 in the mammary gland for B and FO, respectively. It is concluded that fish oil enhances milk fat cis-9, trans-11 CLA content in response to increased supply of trans-11 C-18:1 that arises from an inhibition of trans C-18:1 reduction in the rumen.

A combined SMOTE and PSO based RBF classifier for two-class imbalanced problems

This contribution proposes a powerful technique for two-class imbalanced classification problems by combining the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) and the particle swarm optimisation (PSO) aided radial basis function (RBF) classifier. In order to enhance the significance of the small and specific region belonging to the positive class in the decision region, the SMOTE is applied to generate synthetic instances for the positive class to balance the training data set. Based on the over-sampled training data, the RBF classifier is constructed by applying the orthogonal forward selection procedure, in which the classifier's structure and the parameters of RBF kernels are determined using a PSO algorithm based on the criterion of minimising the leave-one-out misclassification rate. The experimental results obtained on a simulated imbalanced data set and three real imbalanced data sets are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.

Farmers' willingness to pay for agricultural extension service: evidence from Nigeria

The study was undertaken to investigate how willing would farmers be to pay for agricultural extension service in Nigeria. A multistage random sampling technique was used to select 268 respondents. Results showed that most farmers (95.1 per cent) were willing to pay for improved extension service as long as the service remained relevant to their needs. Farmers were willing to pay N1000 annually as their own share of the service cost. The most important factors that influenced farmers’ willingness to pay were states of origin, items originally paid for, major occupation, minor occupation, number of years in school and sale of farm produce.

A framework for agricultural adaptation to climate change in Southern Nigeria

The agricultural sector which contributes between 20-50% of gross domestic product in Africa and employs about 60% of the population is greatly affected by climate change impacts. Agricultural productivity and food prices are expected to rise due to this impact thereby worsening the food insecurity and poor nutritional health conditions in the continent. Incidentally, the capacity in the continent to adapt is very low. Addressing these challenges will therefore require a holistic and integrated adaptation framework hence this study. A total of 360 respondents selected through a multi-stage random sampling technique participated in the study that took place in Southern Nigeria from 2008-2011. Results showed that majority of respondents (84%) were aware that some climate change characteristics such as uncertainties at the onset of farming season, extreme weather events including flooding and droughts, pests, diseases, weed infestation, and land degradation have all been on the increase. The most significant effects of climate change that manifested in the area were declining soil fertility and weed infestation. Some of the adaptation strategies adopted by farmers include increased weeding, changing the timing of farm operations, and processing of crops to reduce post-harvest losses. Although majority of respondents were aware of government policies aimed at protecting the environment, most of them agreed that these policies were not being effectively implemented. A mutually inclusive framework comprising of both indigenous and modern techniques, processes, practices and technologies was then developed from the study in order to guide farmers in adapting to climate change effects/impacts.

Domestic cold pitched roofs in the UK: - effect of using different roof insulation materials

The type and thickness of insulation on the topside horizontal of cold pitched roofs has a significant role in controlling air movement, energy conservation and moisture transfer reduction through the ceiling to the loft (roof void) space. To investigate its importance, a numerical model using a HAM software package on a Matlab platform with a Simulink simulation tool has been developed using insitu measurements of airflows from the dwelling space through the ceiling to the loft of three houses of different configurations and loft space. Considering typical UK roof underlay (i.e. bituminous felt and a vapour permeable underlay), insitu measurements of the 3 houses were tested using a calibrated passive sampling technique. Using the measured airflows, the effect of air movement on three types of roof insulation (i.e. fibreglass, cellulose and foam) was modelled to investigate associated energy losses and moisture transport. The thickness of the insulation materials were varied but the ceiling airtightness and eaves gap size were kept constant. These instances were considered in order to visualize the effects of the changing parameters. In addition, two different roof underlays of varying resistances were considered and compared to access the influence of the underlay, if any, on energy conservation. The comparison of these insulation materials in relation to the other parameters showed that the type of insulation material and thickness, contributes significantly to energy conservation and moisture transfer reduction through the roof and hence of the building as a whole.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.