Relationships Between Seston Available Food And Feeding-Activity In The Common Mussel Mytilus-Edulis

The feeding and metabolic rates of Mytilus edulis L. of different body sizes were measured in response to changes in particle concentrations ranging from 2 to 350 mg l-1. Rates of oxygen consumption were not significantly affected by changes in seston concentration, whereas clearance rates gradually declined with increasing particle concentration. Pseudofaeces production was initiated at relatively low seston concentrations (<5 mg l-1). Marked seasonal changes were recorded in the composition of suspended particulates (seston) in an estuary in south-west England. Total seston was sampled at frequent intervals throughout an annual cycle and analysed in terms of: particle size-frequency distributions, total dry weight (mg l-1), inorganic content, chlorophyll a, carbohydrate, protein and lipid. The particulate carbohydrate, protein and lipid content provided an estimate of the food content of the seston. The results are discussed in terms of the “food available” to a nonselective suspension feeder, such as M. edulis, during a seasonal cycle. The effect of inorganic silt in suspension was mainly to limit by “dilution” the amount of food material ingested rather than to reduce the amount of material filtered by the mussel. In winter, the food content of the material ingested was 5%, and this increased to 25% during the spring and summer.

Combined Effects Of Body Size Food Concentration And Season On Physiology Of Mytilus-Edulis

Multivariate experiments are used to study the effects of body size, food concentration, and season on the oxygen consumption, ammonia excretion, food assimilation efficiency and filtration rate of Mytilus edulis adults. Food concentrations and season affect both the intercept and the slope of the allometric equation describing oxygen uptake as a function of body size. Multiple regression and response surface techniques are used to describe and illustrate the complex relationship between metabolic rate, ration, season and the body size of M. edulis. Filtration rate has a relatively low weight exponent Q> = 038) and the intercept for the allometric equation is not significantly affected by food concentration, season or acclimation temperatures between 5 and 20 °C. Food assimilation efficiency declines exponentially with increasing food concentration and is dependent on body size at high food levels. The rate of ammonia excretion shows a similar seasonal cycle to that of oxygen consumption. They are both minimal in the autumn/winter and reach a maximum in the spring /summer.

DISCOVERY 2010: Spatial and temporal variability in a dynamic polar ecosystem

The Scotia Sea has been a focus of biological- and physical oceanographic study since the Discovery expeditions in the early 1900s. It is a physically energetic region with some of the highest levels of productivity in the Southern Ocean. It is also a region within which there have been greater than average levels of change in upper water column temperature. We describe the results of three cruises transecting the central Scotia Sea from south to north in consecutive years and covering spring, summer and autumn periods. We also report on some community level syntheses using both current-day and historical data from this region. A wide range of parameters were measured during the field campaigns, covering the physical oceanography of the region, air–sea CO2 fluxes, macro- and micronutrient concentrations, the composition and biomass of the nano-, micro- and mesoplankton communities, and the distribution and biomass of Antarctic krill and mesopelagic fish. Process studies examined the effect of iron-stress on the physiology of primary producers, reproduction and egestion in Antarctic krill and the transfer of stable isotopes between trophic layers, from primary consumers up to birds and seals. Community level syntheses included an examination of the biomass-spectra, food-web modelling, spatial analysis of multiple trophic layers and historical species distributions. The spatial analyses in particular identified two distinct community types: a northern warmer water community and a southern cold community, their boundary being broadly consistent with the position of the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF). Temperature and ice cover appeared to be the dominant, over-riding factors in driving this pattern. Extensive phytoplankton blooms were a major feature of the surveys, and were persistent in areas such as South Georgia. In situ and bioassay measurements emphasised the important role of iron inputs as facilitators of these blooms. Based on seasonal DIC deficits, the South Georgia bloom was found to contain the strongest seasonal carbon uptake in the ice-free zone of the Southern Ocean. The surveys also encountered low-production, iron-limited regions, a situation more typical of the wider Southern Ocean. The response of primary and secondary consumers to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in production was complex. Many of the life-cycles of small pelagic organisms showed a close coupling to the seasonal cycle of food availability. For instance, Antarctic krill showed a dependence on early, non-ice-associated blooms to facilitate early reproduction. Strategies to buffer against environmental variability were also examined, such as the prevalence of multiyear life-cycles and variability in energy storage levels. Such traits were seen to influence the way in which Scotia Sea communities were structured, with biomass levels in the larger size classes being higher than in other ocean regions. Seasonal development also altered trophic function, with the trophic level of higher predators increasing through the course of the year as additional predator-prey interactions emerged in the lower trophic levels. Finally, our studies re-emphasised the role that the simple phytoplankton-krill-higher predator food chain plays in this Southern Ocean region, particularly south of the SACCF. To the north, alternative food chains, such as those involving copepods, macrozooplankton and mesopelagic fish, were increasingly important. Continued ocean warming in this region is likely to increase the prevalence of such alternative such food chains with Antarctic krill predicted to move southwards.

Changes in the oceanic northeast Pacific plankton populations; what may happen in a warmer ocean

The Continuous Plankton Recorder has been sampling the northeast Pacific on a routine basis since 2000. Although this is a relatively short time series still, climate variability within that time has caused noticeable related changes in the plankton. The earlier part of the time series followed the 1999 La Nina and conditions were cool, but conditions between 2003 and 2005 were anomalously warm. Oceanic zooplankton have responded to this warming in several ways that are discernible in CPR data. The seasonal cycle of mesozooplankton biomass in the eastern Gulf of Alaska has shifted earlier in the spring by a few weeks (sampling resolution is too coarse to be more accurate). The copepod Neocalanus plumchruslflemingeri is largely responsible as it makes up a high proportion of the spring surface biomass and stage-based determinations have shown an earlier maximum in warmer years across much of the northeast Pacific, spanning nearly 20 degrees of latitude. Summer copepod populations are more diverse than in spring, although lower in biomass. The northwards extension of southern taxa in the summer correlates with surface temperature and in warmer years southern taxa are found further north than in cooler years. These findings support the importance of monitoring the open ocean particularly as it is an important foraging ground for large fish, birds and mammals. Higher trophic levels may time their reproduction or migration to coincide with the abundance of particular prey which may be of a different composition and/or lower abundance at a particular time in warmer conditions.

The influence of phytoplankton productivity, temperature and environmental stability on the control of copepod diversity in the North East Atlantic

The patterns of copepod species richness (S) and their relationship with phytoplankton productivity, temperature and environmental stability were investigated at climatological, seasonal and year-to-year time scales as well as scales along latitudinal and oceanic–neritic gradients using monthly time series of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey collected in the North East Atlantic between 1958 and 2006. Time series analyses confirmed previously described geographic patterns. Equatorward and towards neritic environments, the climatological average of S increases and the variance explained by the seasonal cycle decreases. The bi-modal character of seasonality increases equatorward and the timing of the seasonal cycle takes place progressive earlier equatorward and towards neritic environments. In the long-term, the climatological average of S decreased significantly (p < 0.001) between 1958 and 2006 in the Bay of Biscay and North Iberian shelf at a rate of ca. 0.04 year−1, and increased at the same rate between 1991 and 2006 in the northernmost oceanic location. The climatological averages of S correlate positively with those of the index of seasonality of phytoplankton productivity (ratio between the minimum and maximum monthly values of surface chlorophyll) and sea surface temperature, and negatively with those of the proxy for environmental stability (monthly frequency of occurrence of daily averaged wind speed exceeding 10 m s−1). The seasonal cycles of S and phytoplankton productivity (surface chlorophyll as proxy) exhibit similar features in terms of shape, timing and explained variance, but the relationship between the climatological averages of both variables is non-significant. From year-to-year, the annual averages of S correlate negatively with those of phytoplankton productivity and positively with those of sea surface temperature along the latitudinal gradient, and negatively with those of environmental stability along the oceanic–neritic gradient. The annual anomalies of S (i.e. factoring out geographic variation) show a unimodal relationship with those of sea surface temperature and environmental stability, with S peaking at intermediate values of the anomalies of these variables. The results evidence the role of seasonality of phytoplankton productivity on the control of copepod species richness at seasonal and climatological scales, giving support to the species richness–productivity hypothesis. Although sea surface temperature (SST) is indeed a good predictor of richness along the latitudinal gradient, it is unable to predict the increase of richness form oceanic to neritic environments, thus lessening the generality of the species richness–energy hypothesis. Meteo-hydrographic disturbances (i.e. SST and wind speed anomalies as proxies), presumably through its role on mixed layer depth dynamics and turbulence and hence productivity, maximise local diversity when occurring at intermediate frequency and or intensity, thus providing support to the intermediate disturbance hypothesis on the control of copepod diversity.

Macroscale factors affecting diatom abundance: a synergistic use of Continuous Plankton Recorder and satellite remote sensing data

Diatoms exist in almost every aquatic regime; they are responsible for 20% of global carbon fixation and 25% of global primary production, and are regarded as a key food for copepods, which are subsequently consumed by larger predators such as fish and marine mammals. A decreasing abundance and a vulnerability to climatic change in the North Atlantic Ocean have been reported in the literature. In the present work, a data matrix composed of concurrent satellite remote sensing and Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) in situ measurements was collated for the same spatial and temporal coverage in the Northeast Atlantic. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were applied to recognize and learn the complex non-monotonic and non-linear relationships between diatom abundance and spatiotemporal environmental factors. Because of their ability to mimic non-linear systems, ANNs proved far more effective in modelling the diatom distribution in the marine ecosystem. The results of this study reveal that diatoms have a regular seasonal cycle, with their abundance most strongly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) and light intensity. The models indicate that extreme positive SSTs decrease diatom abundances regardless of other climatic conditions. These results provide information on the ecology of diatoms that may advance our understanding of the potential response of diatoms to climatic change.

Seasonality and interannual variability of the European Slope Current from 20 years of altimeter data compared with in situ measurements

The European Slope Current (SC) is a major section of the warm poleward flow from the Atlantic to the Arctic, which also moderates the exchange of heat, salt, nutrients and carbon between the deep ocean and the European shelf seas. The mean structure of the geostrophic flow, seasonality, interannual variability and long-term trend of SC are appraised with an unprecedented continuous 20-year satellite altimeter dataset. Comparisons with long term in situ data showed a maximum correlation of r2=0.51 between altimeter and Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), with similar results for drogued buoy data. Mean geostrophic currents were appraised more comprehensively than previous attempts, and the paths of 4 branches of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and positions of 5 eddies in the region were derived quantitatively. A consistent seasonal cycle in the flow of the SC was found at all 8 sections along the European shelf slope, with maximum poleward flow in the winter and minimum in the summer. The seasonal difference in the altimetry current speed amounted to ~8-10 cm s-1 at the northern sections, but only ~5 cm s-1 on the Bay of Biscay slopes. This extended altimeter dataset indicates significant regional and seasonal variations, and has revealed new insights into the interannual variability of the SC. It is shown that there is a peak poleward flow at most positions along a ~2000 km stretch of the continental slope from Portugal to Scotland during 1995-1997, but this did not clearly relate to the extreme negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the winter of 1995-1996. The speed of the SC exhibited a long term decreasing trend of ~1% per year. By contrast the NAC showed no significant trend over the 20-year period. Major changes in the NAC occurred three times, and these changes followed decreases in the NAO index.

Nanoplankton and picoplankton in the Western English Channel: abundance and seasonality from 2007–2013

The nano- and picoplankton community at Station L4 in the Western English Channel was studied between 2007 and 2013 by flow cytometry to quantify abundance and investigate seasonal cycles within these communities. Nanoplankton included both photosynthetic and heterotrophic eukaryotic single-celled organisms while the picoplankton included picoeukaryote phytoplankton, Synechococcus sp. cyanobacteria and heterotrophic bacteria. A Box–Jenkins Transfer Function climatology analysis of surface data revealed that Synechococcus sp., cryptophytes, and heterotrophic flagellates had bimodal annual cycles. Nanoeukaryotes and both high and low nucleic acid-containing bacteria (HNA and LNA, respectively) groups exhibited unimodal annual cycles. Phaeocystis sp., whilst having clearly defined abundance maxima in spring was not detectable the rest of the year. Coccolithophores exhibited a weak seasonal cycle, with abundance peaks in spring and autumn. Picoeukaryotes did not exhibit a discernable seasonal cycle at the surface. Timings of maximum group abundance varied through the year. Phaeocystis sp. and heterotrophic flagellates peaked in April/May. Nanoeukaryotes and HNA bacteria peaked in June/July and had relatively high abundance throughout the summer. Synechococcus sp., cryptophytes and LNA bacteria all peaked from mid to late September. The transfer function model techniques used represent a useful means of identifying repeating annual cycles in time series data with the added ability to detect trends and harmonic terms at different time scales from months to decades.

Long-term variability of the siphonophores Muggiaea atlantica and M. kochi in the Western English Channel

We investigated long-term variability of the calycophoran siphonophores Muggiaea atlantica and Muggiaea kochi in the Western English Channel (WEC) between 1930 and 2011. Our aims were to describe long-term changes in abundance and temporal distribution in relation to local environmental dynamics. In order to better understand mechanisms that regulate the species’ populations, we identified periods that were characteristic of in situ population growth and the environmental optima associated with these events. Our results show that between 1930 and the 1960s both M. atlantica and M. kochi were transient components of the WEC ecosystem. In the late 1960s M. atlantica, successfully established a resident population in the WEC, while the occurrence of M. kochi became increasingly sporadic. Once established as a resident species, the seasonal abundance and distribution of M. atlantica increased. Analysis of environmental conditions associated with in situ population growth revealed that temperature and prey were key determinants of the seasonal distribution and abundance of M. atlantica. Salinity was shown to have an indirect effect, likely representing a proxy for water circulation in the WEC. Anomalies in the seasonal cycle of salinity, indicating deviation from the usual circulation pattern in the WEC, were negatively associated with in situ growth, suggesting dispersal of the locally developing M. atlantica population. However, our findings identified complexity in the relationship between characteristics of the environment and M. atlantica variability. The transition from a period of transiency (1930–1968) to residency (1969–2011) was tentatively attributed to structural changes in the WEC ecosystem that occurred under the forcing of wider-scale hydroclimatic changes.

Regulation of HMG-CoA reductase, HSL and ACAT expression and activity in testicular cholesterol metabolism in mink and in mouse following experimental genetic deletion

Introduction: L'homéostasie du cholestérol est indispensable à la synthèse de la testostérone dans le tissu interstitiel et la production de gamètes mâles fertiles dans les tubules séminifères. Les facteurs enzymatiques contribuent au maintien de cet équilibre intracellulaire du cholestérol. L'absence d'un ou de plusieurs enzymes telles que la HMG-CoA réductase, la HSL et l'ACAT-1 a été associée à l'infertilité masculine. Toutefois, les facteurs enzymatiques qui contribuent au maintien de l'équilibre intra-tissulaire du cholestérol n'ont pas été étudiés. Cette étude a pour but de tester l'hypothèse que le maintien des taux de cholestérol compatibles avec la spermatogenèse nécessite une coordination de la fonction intracellulaire des enzymes HMG-CoA réductase, ACAT1 et ACAT2 et la HSL. Méthodes: Nous avons analysé l'expression de l’ARNm et de la protéine de ces enzymes dans les fractions enrichies en tubules séminifères (STf) de vison durant le développement postnatal et le cycle reproductif annuel et dans les fractions enrichies en tissu interstitiel (ITf) et de STf durant le développement postnatal chez la souris. Nous avons développé deux nouvelles techniques pour la mesure de l'activité enzymatique de la HMG-CoA réductase et de celle de l'ACAT1 et ACAT2. En outre, l'immunohistochimie a été utilisée pour localiser les enzymes dans le testicule. Enfin, les souris génétiquement déficientes en HSL, en SR-BI et en CD36 ont été utilisées pour élucider la contribution de la HMG-CoA réductase, l'ACAT1 et l'ACAT2 et la HSL à l'homéostasie du cholestérol. Résultats: 1) HMG-CoA réductase: (Vison) La variation du taux d’expression de l’ARNm de la HMG-CoA réductase était corrélée à celle de l'isoforme de 90 kDa de la protéine HMG-CoA réductase durant le développement postnatal et chez l'adulte durant le cycle reproductif saisonnier. L'activité enzymatique de la HMG-CoA réductase augmentait de façon concomitante avec le taux protéinique pour atteindre son niveau le plus élevé à 240 jours (3.6411e-7 mol/min/μg de protéines) au cours du développement et en Février (1.2132e-6 mol/min/μg de protéines) durant le cycle reproductif chez l’adulte. (Souris), Les niveaux d'expression de l'ARNm et l'activité enzymatique de la HMG-CoA réductase étaient maximales à 42 jours. A l'opposé, le taux protéinique diminuait au cours du développement. 2) HSL: (Vison), l'expression de la protéine de 90 kDa de la HSL était élevée à 180- et 240 jours après la naissance, ainsi qu'en Janvier durant le cycle saisonnier chez l'adulte. L'activité enzymatique de la HSL augmentait durant le développement pour atteindre un pic à 270 jours (36,45 nM/min/μg). Chez l'adulte, l'activité enzymatique de la HSL était maximale en Février. (Souris) Le niveau d’expression de l'ARNm de la HSL augmentait significativement à 21-, 28- et 35 jours après la naissance concomitamment avec le taux d'expression protéinique. L'activité enzymatique de la HSL était maximale à 42 jours suivie d'une baisse significative chez l'adulte. 3) ACAT-1 et ACAT-2: Le présent rapport est le premier à identifier l’expression de l'ACAT-1 et de l'ACAT-2 dans les STf de visons et de souris. (Vison) L'activité enzymatique de l'ACAT-2 était maximale à la complétion du développement à 270 jour (1190.00 CPMB/200 μg de protéines) et en janvier (2643 CPMB/200 μg de protéines) chez l'adulte. En revanche, l'activité enzymatique de l'ACAT-1 piquait à 90 jours et en août respectivement durant le développement et chez l'adulte. (Souris) Les niveaux d'expression de l'ARNm et la protéine de l'ACAT-1 diminuait au cours du développement. Le taux de l'ARNm de l'ACAT-2, à l’opposé du taux protéinique, augmentait au cours du développement. L'activité enzymatique de l'ACAT-1 diminuait au cours du développement tandis que celle de l'ACAT-2 augmentait pour atteindre son niveau maximal à 42 jours. 4) Souris HSL-/ -: Le taux d’expression de l'ARNm et l'activité enzymatique de la HMG-CoA réductase diminuaient significativement dans les STf de souris HSL-/- comparés aux souris HSL+/+. Par contre, les taux de l'ARNm et les niveaux des activités enzymatiques de l'ACAT-1 et de l'ACAT-2 étaient significativement plus élevés dans les STf de souris HSL-/- comparés aux souris HSL+/+ 5) Souris SR-BI-/-: L'expression de l'ARNm et l'activité enzymatique de la HMG-CoA réductase et de l'ACAT-1 étaient plus basses dans les STf de souris SR-BI-/- comparées aux souris SR-BI+/+. A l'opposé, le taux d'expression de l'ARNm et l'activité enzymatique de la HSL étaient augmentées chez les souris SR-BI-/- comparées aux souris SR-BI+/+. 6) Souris CD36-/-: L'expression de l'ARNm et l'activité enzymatique de la HMG-CoA réductase et de l'ACAT-2 étaient significativement plus faibles tandis que celles de la HSL et de l'ACAT-1 étaient inchangées dans les STf de souris CD36-/- comparées aux souris CD36+/+. Conclusion: Nos résultats suggèrent que: 1) L'activité enzymatique de la HMG-CoA réductase et de la HSL sont associées à l'activité spermatogénétique et que ces activités ne seraient pas régulées au niveau transcriptionnel. 2) L'ACAT-1 et de l'ACAT-2 sont exprimées dans des cellules différentes au sein des tubules séminifères, suggérant des fonctions distinctes pour ces deux isoformes: l'estérification du cholestérol libre dans les cellules germinales pour l'ACAT-1 et l'efflux du cholestérol en excès dans les cellules de Sertoli au cours de la spermatogenèse pour l'ACAT-2. 3) La suppression génétique de la HSL diminuait la HMG-CoA réductase et augmentait les deux isoformes de l'ACAT, suggérant que ces enzymes jouent un rôle critique dans le métabolisme du cholestérol intratubulaire. 4) La suppression génétique des transporteurs sélectifs de cholestérol SR-BI et CD36 affecte l'expression (ARNm et protéine) et l'activité des enzymes HMG-CoA réductase, HSL, ACAT-1 et ACAT-2, suggérant l'existence d’un effet compensatoire entre facteurs enzymatiques et non-enzymatiques du métabolisme du cholestérol dans les fractions tubulaires. Ensemble, les résultats de notre étude suggèrent que les enzymes impliquées dans la régulation du cholestérol intratubulaire agissent de concert avec les transporteurs sélectifs de cholestérol dans le but de maintenir l'homéostasie du cholestérol intra-tissulaire du testicule.

Surface Circulation in the Tropical Indian Ocean Using Multi-Mission Altimeter Data

In the present study the availability of satellite altimeter sea level data with good spatial and temporal resolution is explored to describe and understand circulation of the tropical Indian Ocean. The derived geostrophic circulations showed large variability in all scales. The seasonal cycle described using monthly climatology generated using 12 years SSH data from 1993 to 2004 revealed several new aspects of tropical Indian Ocean circulation. The interannual variability presented in this study using monthly means of SSH data for 12 years have shown large year-to-year variability. The EOF analysis has shown the influence of several periodic signals in the annual and interannual scales where the relative strengths of the signals also varied from year to year. Since one of the reasons for this kind of variability in circulation is the presence of planetary waves. This study discussed the influence of such waves on circulation by presenting two cases one in the Arabian Sea and other in the Bay of Bengal.

Distribution and statistics of African mesoscale convective weather systems based on the ISCCP Meteosat imagery

This paper provides for the first time an objective short-term (8 yr) climatology of African convective weather systems based on satellite imagery. Eight years of infrared International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project-European Space Agency's Meteorological Satellite (ISCCP-Meteosat) satellite imagery has been analyzed using objective feature identification, tracking, and statistical techniques for the July, August, and September periods and the region of Africa and the adjacent Atlantic ocean. This allows various diagnostics to be computed and used to study the distribution of mesoscale and synoptic-scale convective weather systems from mesoscale cloud clusters and squall lines to tropical cyclones. An 8-yr seasonal climatology (1983-90) and the seasonal cycle of this convective activity are presented and discussed. Also discussed is the dependence of organized convection for this region, on the orography, convective, and potential instability and vertical wind shear using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data.

Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations--but with larger amplitude--are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August­-September-­October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June­-August and September­-November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean­atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response.

Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM

Anomalous heavy snow during winter or spring has long been regarded as a possible precursor of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall during the subsequent summer. However previous work in this field is inconclusive, in terms of the mechanism that communicates snow anomalies to the monsoon summer, and even the region from which snow has the most impact. In this study we explore these issues in coupled and atmosphere-only versions of the Hadley Centre model. A 1050-year control integration of the HadCM3 coupled model, which well represents the seasonal cycle of snow cover over the Eurasian continent, is analysed and shows evidence for weakened monsoons being preceded by strong snow forcing (in the absence of ENSO) over either the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau or north/west Eurasia regions. However, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of springtime interannual variability in snow depth shows the leading mode to have opposite signs between these two regions, suggesting that competing mechanisms may be possible. To determine the dominant region, ensemble integrations are carried out using HadAM3, the atmospheric component of HadCM3, and a variety of anomalous snow forcing initial conditions obtained from the control integration of the coupled model. Forcings are applied during spring in separate experiments over the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau and north/west Eurasia regions, in conjunction with climatological SSTs in order to avoid the direct effects of ENSO. With the aid of idealized forcing conditions in sensitivity tests, we demonstrate that forcing from the Himalaya region is dominant in this model via a Blanford-type mechanism involving reduced surface sensible heat and longwave fluxes, reduced heating of the troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau and consequently a reduced meridional tropospheric temperature gradient which weakens the monsoon during early summer. Snow albedo is shown to be key to the mechanism, explaining around 50% of the perturbation in sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau, and accounting for the majority of cooling through the troposphere.