914 resultados para scenario-based assessment
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This paper reports findings of a two year study concerning the development and implementation of a general-purpose computer-based assessment (CBA) system at a UK University. Data gathering took place over a period of nineteen months, involving a number of formative and summative assessments. Approximately 1,000 students, drawn from undergraduate courses, were involved in the exercise. The techniques used in gathering data included questionnaires, observation, interviews and an analysis of student scores in both conventional examinations and computer-based assessments. Comparisons with conventional assessment methods suggest that the use of CBA techniques may improve the overall performance of students. However it is clear that the technique must not be seen as a "quick fix" for problems such as rising student numbers. If one accepts that current systems test only a relatively narrow range of skills, then the hasty implementation of CBA systems will result in a distorted and inaccurate view of student performance. In turn, this may serve to reduce the overall quality of courses and - ultimately - detract from the student learning experience. On the other hand, if one adopts a considered and methodical approach to computer-based assessment, positive benefits might include increased efficiency and quality, leading to improved student learning.
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Security remains a top priority for organizations as their information systems continue to be plagued by security breaches. This dissertation developed a unique approach to assess the security risks associated with information systems based on dynamic neural network architecture. The risks that are considered encompass the production computing environment and the client machine environment. The risks are established as metrics that define how susceptible each of the computing environments is to security breaches. ^ The merit of the approach developed in this dissertation is based on the design and implementation of Artificial Neural Networks to assess the risks in the computing and client machine environments. The datasets that were utilized in the implementation and validation of the model were obtained from business organizations using a web survey tool hosted by Microsoft. This site was designed as a host site for anonymous surveys that were devised specifically as part of this dissertation. Microsoft customers can login to the website and submit their responses to the questionnaire. ^ This work asserted that security in information systems is not dependent exclusively on technology but rather on the triumvirate people, process and technology. The questionnaire and consequently the developed neural network architecture accounted for all three key factors that impact information systems security. ^ As part of the study, a methodology on how to develop, train and validate such a predictive model was devised and successfully deployed. This methodology prescribed how to determine the optimal topology, activation function, and associated parameters for this security based scenario. The assessment of the effects of security breaches to the information systems has traditionally been post-mortem whereas this dissertation provided a predictive solution where organizations can determine how susceptible their environments are to security breaches in a proactive way. ^
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Introduction: Quantitative computed tomography (qCT)-based assessment of total lung weight (M(lung)) has the potential to differentiate atelectasis from consolidation and could thus provide valuable information for managing trauma patients fulfilling commonly used criteria for acute lung injury (ALI). We hypothesized that qCT would identify atelectasis as a frequent mimic of early posttraumatic ALI. Methods: In this prospective observational study, M(lung) was calculated by qCT in 78 mechanically ventilated trauma patients fulfilling the ALI criteria at admission. A reference interval for M(lung) was derived from 74 trauma patients with morphologically and functionally normal lungs (reference). Results are given as medians with interquartile ranges. Results: The ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to the fraction of inspired oxygen was 560 (506 to 616) mmHg in reference patients and 169 (95 to 240) mmHg in ALI patients. The median reference M(lung) value was 885 (771 to 973) g, and the reference interval for M(lung) was 584 to 1164 g, which matched that of previous reports. Despite the significantly greater median M(lung) value (1088 (862 to 1,342) g) in the ALI group, 46 (59%) ALI patients had M(lung) values within the reference interval and thus most likely had atelectasis. In only 17 patients (22%), Mlung was increased to the range previously reported for ALI patients and compatible with lung consolidation. Statistically significant differences between atelectasis and consolidation patients were found for age, Lung Injury Score, Glasgow Coma Scale score, total lung volume, mass of the nonaerated lung compartment, ventilator-free days and intensive care unit-free days. Conclusions: Atelectasis is a frequent cause of early posttraumatic lung dysfunction. Differentiation between atelectasis and consolidation from other causes of lung damage by using qCT may help to identify patients who could benefit from management strategies such as damage control surgery and lung-protective mechanical ventilation that focus on the prevention of pulmonary complications.
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The participation of the Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation IPA (Stuttgart, Germany) and the companies User Interface Design GmbH (Ludwigsburg, Germany) plus MLR System GmbH (Ludwigsburg, Germany) enabled the research and findings presented in this paper; we would like to namely mention Birgit Graf and Theo Jacobs (Fraunhofer IPA) furthermore Peter Klein and Christiane Hartmann (User Interface Design GmbH).
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Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand.
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The integration of wind power in eletricity generation brings new challenges to unit commitment due to the random nature of wind speed. For this particular optimisation problem, wind uncertainty has been handled in practice by means of conservative stochastic scenario-based optimisation models, or through additional operating reserve settings. However, generation companies may have different attitudes towards operating costs, load curtailment, or waste of wind energy, when considering the risk caused by wind power variability. Therefore, alternative and possibly more adequate approaches should be explored. This work is divided in two main parts. Firstly we survey the main formulations presented in the literature for the integration of wind power in the unit commitment problem (UCP) and present an alternative model for the wind-thermal unit commitment. We make use of the utility theory concepts to develop a multi-criteria stochastic model. The objectives considered are the minimisation of costs, load curtailment and waste of wind energy. Those are represented by individual utility functions and aggregated in a single additive utility function. This last function is adequately linearised leading to a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) model that can be tackled by general-purpose solvers in order to find the most preferred solution. In the second part we discuss the integration of pumped-storage hydro (PSH) units in the UCP with large wind penetration. Those units can provide extra flexibility by using wind energy to pump and store water in the form of potential energy that can be generated after during peak load periods. PSH units are added to the first model, yielding a MILP model with wind-hydro-thermal coordination. Results showed that the proposed methodology is able to reflect the risk profiles of decision makers for both models. By including PSH units, the results are significantly improved.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Industrial
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This assessment tool is designed to assess the registered nursing needs of a person needing long-term care. The tool is designed to encapsulate a systematic approach to assessment whilst at the same time embracing professional decision-making that takes place in the relationship between a nurse and another person. For this reason, the tool takes the assessment through a staged approach, moving from a general ‘narrative’ based assessment of ‘domains’ of care need, to a focused assessment of risk and complexity. åÊ
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Test-based assessment tools are mostly focused on the use of computers. However, advanced Information and Communication Technologies, such as handheld devices, opens up the possibilities of creating new assessment scenarios, increasing the teachers’ choices to design more appropriate tests for their subject areas. In this paper we use the term Computing-Based Testing (CBT) instead of Computer-Based Testing, as it captures better the emerging trends. Within the CBT context, the paper is centred on proposing an approach for “Assessment in situ” activities, where questions have to be answered in front of a real space/location (situ). In particular, we present the QuesTInSitu software implementation that includes both an editor and a player based on the IMS Question and Test Interoperability specification and GoogleMaps. With QuesTInSitu teachers can create geolocated questions and tests (routes), and students can answer the tests using mobile devices with GPS when following a route. Three illustrating scenarios and the results from the implementation of one of them in a real educational situation show that QuesTInSitu enables the creation of innovative, enriched and context-aware assessment activities. The results also indicate that the use of mobile devices and location-based systems in assessment activities facilitates students to put explorative and spatial skills into practice and fosters their motivation, reflection and personal observation.
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BACKGROUND: To test the inflammatory origin of cardiovascular disease, as opposed to its origin in western lifestyle. Population-based assessment of the prevalences of cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular disease in an inflammation-prone African population, including electrocardiography and ankle-arm index measurement. Comparison with known prevalences in American and European societies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Traditional population in rural Ghana, characterised by adverse environmental conditions and a high infectious load. Population-based sample of 924 individuals aged 50 years and older. Median values for cardiovascular risk factors, including waist circumference, BMI, blood pressure, and markers of glucose and lipid metabolism and inflammation. Prevalence of myocardial infarction detected by electrocardiography and prevalence of peripheral arterial disease detected by ankle-arm index. When compared to western societies, we found the Ghanaians to have more proinflammatory profiles and less cardiovascular risk factors, including obesity, dysglycaemia, dyslipidaemia, and hypertension. Prevalences of cardiovascular disease were also lower. Definite myocardial infarction was present in 1.2% (95%CI: 0.6 to 2.4%). Peripheral arterial disease was present in 2.8% (95%CI: 1.9 to 4.1%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taken together, our data indicate that for the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease inflammatory processes alone do not suffice and additional factors, probably lifestyle-related, are mandatory.
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This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.
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Researchers have conceptualized repetitive behaviours in individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) on a continuum oflower-Ievel, motoric, repetitive behaviours and higher-order, repetitive behaviours that include symptoms ofOCD (Hollander, Wang, Braun, & Marsh, 2009). Although obsessional, ritualistic, and stereotyped behaviours are a core feature of ASD, individuals with ASD frequently experience obsessions and compulsions that meet DSM-IV-TR (American Psychiatric Association, 2000) criteria for Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD). Given the acknowledged difficulty in differentiating between OCD and Autism-related obsessive-compulsive phenomena, the present study uses the term Obsessive Compulsive Behaviour (OCB) to represent both phenomena. This study used a multiple baseline design across behaviours and ABC designs (Cooper, Heron, & Heward, 2007) to investigate if a 9-week Group Function-Based Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) decreased OCB in four children (ages 7 - 11 years) with High Functioning Autism (HFA). Key treatment components included traditional CBT components (awareness training, cognitive-behavioural skills training, exposure and response prevention) as well as function-based assessment and intervention. Time series data indicated significant decreases in OCBs. Standardized assessments showed decreases in symptom severity, and increases in quality of life for the participants and their families. Issues regarding symptom presentation, assessment, and treatment of a dually diagnosed child are discussed.
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Several methods for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems have been developed. These methods do not fully: (i) take into account the multi‐functionality of agriculture; (ii) include multidimensionality; (iii) utilize and implement the assessment knowledge; and (iv) identify conflicting goals and trade‐offs. This paper reviews seven recently developed multidisciplinary indicator‐based assessment methods with respect to their contribution to these shortcomings. All approaches include (1) normative aspects such as goal setting, (2) systemic aspects such as a specification of scale of analysis, (3) a reproducible structure of the approach. The approaches can be categorized into three typologies. The top‐down farm assessments focus on field or farm assessment. They have a clear procedure for measuring the indicators and assessing the sustainability of the system, which allows for benchmarking across farms. The degree of participation is low, potentially affecting the implementation of the results negatively. The top‐down regional assessment assesses the on‐farm and the regional effects. They include some participation to increase acceptance of the results. However, they miss the analysis of potential trade‐offs. The bottom‐up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches focus on a regional scale. Stakeholders are included throughout the whole process assuring the acceptance of the results and increasing the probability of implementation of developed measures. As they include the interaction between the indicators in their system representation, they allow for performing a trade‐off analysis. The bottom‐up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches seem to better overcome the four shortcomings mentioned above.
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Methods for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems do often not fully (i) take into account the multifunctionality of agriculture, (ii) include multidimensionality, (iii) utilize and implement the assessment knowledge and (iv) identify conflicting goals and trade-offs. This chapter reviews seven recently developed multidisciplinary indicator-based assessment methods with respect to their contribution to these shortcomings. All approaches include (1) normative aspects such as goal setting, (2) systemic aspects such as a specification of scale of analysis and (3) a reproducible structure of the approach. The approaches can be categorized into three typologies: first, top-down farm assessments, which focus on field or farm assessment; second, top-down regional assessments, which assess the on-farm and the regional effects; and third, bottom-up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches, which focus on a regional scale. Our analysis shows that the bottom-up, integrated participatory or transdisciplinary approaches seem to better overcome the four shortcomings mentioned above.
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We propose an alternative, nonsingular, cosmic scenario based on gravitationally induced particle production. The model is an attempt to evade the coincidence and cosmological constant problems of the standard model (Lambda CDM) and also to connect the early and late time accelerating stages of the Universe. Our space-time emerges from a pure initial de Sitter stage thereby providing a natural solution to the horizon problem. Subsequently, due to an instability provoked by the production of massless particles, the Universe evolves smoothly to the standard radiation dominated era thereby ending the production of radiation as required by the conformal invariance. Next, the radiation becomes subdominant with the Universe entering in the cold dark matter dominated era. Finally, the negative pressure associated with the creation of cold dark matter (CCDM model) particles accelerates the expansion and drives the Universe to a final de Sitter stage. The late time cosmic expansion history of the CCDM model is exactly like in the standard Lambda CDM model; however, there is no dark energy. The model evolves between two limiting (early and late time) de Sitter regimes. All the stages are also discussed in terms of a scalar field description. This complete scenario is fully determined by two extreme energy densities, or equivalently, the associated de Sitter Hubble scales connected by rho(I)/rho(f) = (H-I/H-f)(2) similar to 10(122), a result that has no correlation with the cosmological constant problem. We also study the linear growth of matter perturbations at the final accelerating stage. It is found that the CCDM growth index can be written as a function of the Lambda growth index, gamma(Lambda) similar or equal to 6/11. In this framework, we also compare the observed growth rate of clustering with that predicted by the current CCDM model. Performing a chi(2) statistical test we show that the CCDM model provides growth rates that match sufficiently well with the observed growth rate of structure.