Aspiration-based utility functions in a planning model for timber flow management.

The study presents a theory of utility models based on aspiration levels, as well as the application of this theory to the planning of timber flow economics. The first part of the study comprises a derivation of the utility-theoretic basis for the application of aspiration levels. Two basic models are dealt with: the additive and the multiplicative. Applied here solely for partial utility functions, aspiration and reservation levels are interpreted as defining piecewisely linear functions. The standpoint of the choices of the decision-maker is emphasized by the use of indifference curves. The second part of the study introduces a model for the management of timber flows. The model is based on the assumption that the decision-maker is willing to specify a shape of income flow which is different from that of the capital-theoretic optimum. The utility model comprises four aspiration-based compound utility functions. The theory and the flow model are tested numerically by computations covering three forest holdings. The results show that the additive model is sensitive even to slight changes in relative importances and aspiration levels. This applies particularly to nearly linear production possibility boundaries of monetary variables. The multiplicative model, on the other hand, is stable because it generates strictly convex indifference curves. Due to a higher marginal rate of substitution, the multiplicative model implies a stronger dependence on forest management than the additive function. For income trajectory optimization, a method utilizing an income trajectory index is more efficient than one based on the use of aspiration levels per management period. Smooth trajectories can be attained by squaring the deviations of the feasible trajectories from the desired one.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies and potential allowable cut.

In the study, the potential allowable cut in the district of Pohjois-Savo - based on the non-industrial private forest landowners' (NIPF) choices of timber management strategies - was clarified. Alternative timber management strategies were generated, and the choices and factors affecting the choices of timber management strategies by NIPF landowners were studied. The choices of timber management strategies were solved by maximizing the utility functions of the NIPF landowners. The parameters of the utility functions were estimated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The level of the potential allowable cut was compared to the cutting budgets based on the 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories (NFI7 and NFI8), to the combining of private forestry plans, and to the realized drain from non-industrial private forests. The potential allowable cut was calculated using the same MELA system as has been used in the calculation of the national cutting budget. The data consisted of the NIPF holdings (from the TASO planning system) that had been inventoried compartmentwise and had forestry plans made during the years 1984-1992. The NIPF landowners' choices of timber management strategies were clarified by a two-phase mail inquiry. The most preferred strategy obtained was "sustainability" (chosen by 62 % of landowners). The second in order of preference was "finance" (17 %) and the third was "saving" (11 %). "No cuttings", and "maximum cuttings" were the least preferred (9 % and 1 %, resp.). The factors promoting the choices of strategies with intensive cuttings were a) "farmer as forest owner" and "owning fields", b) "increase in the size of the forest holding", c) agriculture and forestry orientation in production, d) "decreasing short term stumpage earning expectations", e) "increasing intensity of future cuttings", and f) "choice of forest taxation system based on site productivity". The potential allowable cut defined in the study was 20 % higher than the average of the realized drain during the years 1988-1993, which in turn, was at the same level as the cutting budget based on the combining of forestry plans in eastern Finland. Respectively, the potential allowable cut defined in the study was 12 % lower than the NFI8-based greatest sustained allowable cut for the 1990s. Using the method presented in this study, timber management strategies can be clarified for non-industrial private forest landowners in different parts of Finland. Based on the choices of timber managemet strategies, regular cutting budgets can be calculated more realistically than before.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies.

The factors affecting the non-industrial, private forest landowners' (hereafter referred to using the acronym NIPF) strategic decisions in management planning are studied. A genetic algorithm is used to induce a set of rules predicting potential cut of the landowners' choices of preferred timber management strategies. The rules are based on variables describing the characteristics of the landowners and their forest holdings. The predictive ability of a genetic algorithm is compared to linear regression analysis using identical data sets. The data are cross-validated seven times applying both genetic algorithm and regression analyses in order to examine the data-sensitivity and robustness of the generated models. The optimal rule set derived from genetic algorithm analyses included the following variables: mean initial volume, landowner's positive price expectations for the next eight years, landowner being classified as farmer, and preference for the recreational use of forest property. When tested with previously unseen test data, the optimal rule set resulted in a relative root mean square error of 0.40. In the regression analyses, the optimal regression equation consisted of the following variables: mean initial volume, proportion of forestry income, intention to cut extensively in future, and positive price expectations for the next two years. The R2 of the optimal regression equation was 0.34 and the relative root mean square error obtained from the test data was 0.38. In both models, mean initial volume and positive stumpage price expectations were entered as significant predictors of potential cut of preferred timber management strategy. When tested with the complete data set of 201 observations, both the optimal rule set and the optimal regression model achieved the same level of accuracy.

Policy evaluations for U.S. federal timber sale accounting system development.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Effects of permanent and non-permanent forest policy means on timber supply.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Evaluation of strain-rate effects in transitional round jets using direct numerical simulation

The coherent flame model uses the strain rate to predict reaction rate per unit flame surface area and some procedure that solves for the dynamics of flame surfaces to predict species distributions. The strainrate formula for the reaction rate is obtained from the analytical solution for a flame in a laminar, plane stagnation point flow. Here, the formula's effectiveness is examined by comparisons with data from a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a round jetlike flow that undergoes transition to turbulence. Significant differences due to general flow features can be understood qualitatively: Model predictions are good in the braids between vortex rings, which are present in the near field of round jets, as the strain rate is extensional and reaction surfaces are isolated. In several other regions, the strain rate is compressive or flame surfaces are folded close together. There, the predictions are poor as the local flow no longer resembles the model flow. Quantitative comparisons showed some discrepancies. A modified, consistent application of the strain-rate solution did not show significant changes in the prediction of mean reaction rate distributions.

An economical method for direct numerical simulation studies of transitional round jets

A pseudo-spectral method based on Fourier expansions in a Cartesian coordinate system is shown to be an economical method for direct numerical simulation studies of transitional round jets, Several characteristics of the solutions are presented to establish the validity of the solutions in spite of the unnatural choices. We show that neither periodicity, nor the use of a Cartesian system have adversely affected the simulations, Instead, there are benefits in terms of ease of computing and lack of the usual restrictions due to grid structure near the jet axis. By computing the simultaneous evolution of passive scalers, the process of reaction in round jet burners, between a fuel-laden jet and an ambient oxidizer, was also simulated. Some typical solutions are shown and then the results of analysis of these data are summarized. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved.

On the cut‐on frequencies of a large round duct with azimuthal as well as radial partitions

This letter deals with a three‐dimensional analysis of circular sectors and annular segments resulting from the partitioning of a round (cylindrical) duct for use in an active noise control system. The relevant frequency equations are derived for stationary medium and solved numerically to arrive at the cut‐on frequencies of the first few modes. The resultant table indicates among other things that azimuthal partitioning does not raise the cutoff frequency (the smallest cut‐on frequency) beyond a particular value, and that radial partitioning is counterproductive in that respect.

Parabolized stability equation models for predicting large-scale mixing noise of turbulent round jets

Parabolized stability equation (PSE) models are being deve loped to predict the evolu-tion of low-frequency, large-scale wavepacket structures and their radiated sound in high-speed turbulent round jets. Linear PSE wavepacket models were previously shown to be in reasonably good agreement with the amplitude envelope and phase measured using a microphone array placed just outside the jet shear layer. 1,2 Here we show they also in very good agreement with hot-wire measurements at the jet center line in the potential core,for a different set of experiments. 3 When used as a model source for acoustic analogy, the predicted far field noise radiation is in reasonably good agreement with microphone measurements for aft angles where contributions from large -scale structures dominate the acoustic field. Nonlinear PSE is then employed in order to determine the relative impor-tance of the mode interactions on the wavepackets. A series of nonlinear computations with randomized initial conditions are use in order to obtain bounds for the evolution of the modes in the natural turbulent jet flow. It was found that n onlinearity has a very limited impact on the evolution of the wavepackets for St≥0. 3. Finally, the nonlinear mechanism for the generation of a low-frequency mode as the difference-frequency mode 4,5 of two forced frequencies is investigated in the scope of the high Reynolds number jets considered in this paper.

Forcing of self-excited round jet diffusion flames

In this experimental and numerical study, two types of round jet are examined under acoustic forcing. The first is a non-reacting low density jet (density ratio 0.14). The second is a buoyant jet diffusion flame at a Reynolds number of 1100 (density ratio of unburnt fluids 0.5). Both jets have regions of strong absolute instability at their base and this causes them to exhibit strong self-excited bulging oscillations at welldefined natural frequencies. This study particularly focuses on the heat release of the jet diffusion flame, which oscillates at the same natural frequency as the bulging mode, due to the absolutely unstable shear layer just outside the flame. The jets are forced at several amplitudes around their natural frequencies. In the non-reacting jet, the frequency of the bulging oscillation locks into the forcing frequency relatively easily. In the jet diffusion flame, however, very large forcing amplitudes are required to make the heat release lock into the forcing frequency. Even at these high forcing amplitudes, the natural mode takes over again from the forced mode in the downstream region of the flow, where the perturbation is beginning to saturate non-linearly and where the heat release is high. This raises the possibility that, in a flame with large regions of absolute instability, the strong natural mode could saturate before the forced mode, weakening the coupling between heat release and incident pressure perturbations, hence weakening the feedback loop that causes combustion instability. © 2009 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Competing Ecosystem services: an Assessment of Carbon and timber in the Tropical forests of Central America

4 p.

Competing Ecosystem Services: an Assessment of Carbon and Timber in the Tropical Forests of Central America

29 p.

Design of a timber Howe truss highway bridge

The span of the bridge was assumed as 100 feet. The type of bridge used is the timber Howe Truss. The height of truss was taken as 20 feet between center lines of top and bottom chords. The width was taken as 18 feet center to center of trusses. The truss was divided up into five panels 20 feet long.

It was designed according to the "General Specifications for Steel Highway Bridges" by Ketchum. For the live load for the floor and its supports, a load of 80 pounds per square foot of total floor surface or a 15 ton traction engine with axles 10 feet centers and 6 feet gage, two thirds of load to be carried by rear axles.

For the truss a load of 75 pounds per square foot of floor surface.

For the wind load the bottom lateral bracing is to be designed to resist a lateral wind load of 300 pounds per foot of span; 150 pounds of this to be treated as a moving load.

The top lateral bracing is to be designed to resist a lateral wind force of 150 pounds per foot of span.

The timber to be used in the bridge is to be Douglas fir.

The unit stresses used for timber are those of the American Railway Engineering Association.