Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

Young adults’ accounts of scientific knowledge when responding to a television news report of contested science

This paper reports one aspect of a study of 28 young adults (18–26 years) engaging with the uncertain (contested) science of a television news report about recent research into mobile phone health risks. The aim of the study was to examine these young people’s ‘accounts of scientific knowledge’ in this context. Seven groups of friends responded to the news report, initially in focus group discussions. Later in semi-structured interviews they elaborated their understanding of the nature of science through their explanations of the scientists’ disagreement and described their mobile phone safety risk assessments. This paper presents their accounts in terms of their views of the nature of science and their concept understanding. Discussions were audio-recorded then analysed by coding the talk in terms of issues raised, which were grouped into themes and interpreted in terms of a moderate social constructionist theoretical framing. In this context, most participants expressed a ‘common sense’ view of the nature of science, describing it as an atheoretical, technical procedure of scientists testing their personal opinions on the issue, subject to the influence of funding sponsors. The roles of theory and data interpretation were largely ignored. It is argued that the nature of science understanding is crucial to engagement with contemporary socioscientific issues, particularly the roles of argumentation, theory, data interpretation, and the distinction of science from common sense. Implications for school science relate primarily to nature of science teaching and the inclusion of socioscientific issues in school science curricula. Future research directions are considered.

Pre-sentence Report, Magisterial Discourse and Agency in Youth Courts in England

This article draws on interviews with Youth Court magistrates to examine if and how discourses, strategies and technologies of risk governance have affected Youth Court magistrates in England and Wales. The aim of the article is to detail the complex relationship between magisterial agency in decision making and youth justice policies which focus on risk control and management. The article demonstrates that, contrary to what might be assumed from the youth and risk governance theoretical literature, Youth Offending Team risk assessments form only one part of the information used by magistrates to explain young people’s presence in courts. This article concludes that magisterial decision making is framed not by formal, expert assessments of risk, but by magistrates’ claims that they are ‘knowing outsiders’, who through judicious use of information presented to them and their own life experiences are able to make objective judgements about both the risk assessments authored by Youth Offending Teams and the young lawbreakers before them.

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Analysis of damage to buildings following the 2010–11 Eastern Australia floods

This research analyses the extent of damage to buildings in Brisbane, Ipswich and Grantham during the recent Eastern Australia flooding and explore the role planning and design/construction regulations played in these failures. It highlights weaknesses in the current systems and propose effective solutions to mitigate future damage and financial loss under current or future climates. 2010 and early 2011 saw major flooding throughout much of Eastern Australia. Queensland and Victoria were particularly hard hit, with insured losses in these states reaching $2.5 billion and many thousands of homes inundated. The Queensland cities of Brisbane and Ipswich were the worst affected; around two-thirds of all inundated property/buildings were in these two areas. Other local government areas to record high levels of inundation were Central Highlands and Rockhampton Regional Councils in Queensland, and Buloke, Campaspe, Central Gold Fields and Loddon in Victoria. Flash flooding was a problem in a number of Victorian councils, but the Lockyer Valley west of Ipswich suffered the most extensive damage with 19 lives lost and more than 100 homes completely destroyed. In all more than 28,000 properties were inundated in Queensland and around 2,500 buildings affected in Victoria. Of the residential properties affected in Brisbane, around 90% were in areas developed prior to the introduction of floodplain development controls, with many also suffering inundation during the 1974 floods. The project developed a predictive model for estimating flood loss and occupant displacement. This model can now be used for flood risk assessments or rapid assessment of impacts following a flood event.

Modeling approaches for pesticide exposure assessment in rice paddies

Pesticide use in paddy rice production may contribute to adverse ecological effects in surface waters. Risk assessments conducted for regulatory purposes depend on the use of simulation models to determine predicted environment concentrations (PEC) of pesticides. Often tiered approaches are used, in which assessments at lower tiers are based on relatively simple models with conservative scenarios, while those at higher tiers have more realistic representations of physical and biochemical processes. This chapter reviews models commonly used for predicting the environmental fate of pesticides in rice paddies. Theoretical considerations, unique features, and applications are discussed. This review is expected to provide information to guide model selection for pesticide registration, regulation, and mitigation in rice production areas.

Understanding and management of resistance to Group M, L and I Herbicides

This project will develop better understanding of resistance to glyphosate, paraquat and Group I herbicides to better inform weed management. The project will develop a range of tools for farm advisors to improve their confidence in decision making with respect to reducing the risk of glyphosate, Group I and paraquat resistance. These will include risk assessments, case studies and scenario exploring tools. The project will discuss with commercial providers the potential for new herbicide registrations. The project will establish farm advisor learning groups to work on the application of the research in local areas where resistance is already a major problem and to improve adoption of research outcomes from this and other projects.

What was behind the bark? : An assessment of decay among urban Tilia, Betula and Acer trees felled as hazardous in the Helsinki City area

Old trees growing in urban environments are often felled due to symptoms of mechanical defects that could be hazardous to people and property. The decisions concerning these removals are justified by risk assessments carried out by tree care professionals. The major motivation for this study was to determine the most common profiles of potential hazard characteristics for the three most common urban tree genera in Helsinki City: Tilia, Betula and Acer, and in this way improve management practices and protection of old amenity trees. For this research, material from approximately 250 urban trees was collected in cooperation with the City of Helsinki Public Works Department during 2001 - 2004. From the total number of trees sampled, approximately 70% were defined as hazardous. The tree species had characteristic features as potential hazard profiles. For Tilia trees, hollowed heartwood with low fungal activity and advanced decay caused by Ganoderma lipsiense were the two most common profiles. In Betula spp., the primary reason for tree removal was usually lowered amenity value in terms of decline of the crown. Internal cracks, most often due to weak fork formation, were common causes of potential failure in Acer spp. Decay caused by Rigidoporus populinus often increased the risk of stem breakage in these Acer trees. Of the decay fungi observed, G. lipsiense was most often the reason for the increased risk of stem collapse. Other fungi that also caused extensive decay were R. populinus, Inonotus obliquus, Kretzschmaria deusta and Phellinus igniarius. The most common decay fungi in terms of incidence were Pholiota spp., but decay caused by these species did not have a high potential for causing stem breakage, because it rarely extended to the cambium. The various evaluations used in the study suggested contradictions in felling decisions based on trees displaying different stages of decay. For protection of old urban trees, it is crucial to develop monitoring methods so that tree care professionals could better analyse the rate of decay progression towards the sapwood and separate those trees with decreasing amounts of sound wood from those with decay that is restricted to the heartwood area.

Heterotrophic Bacteria Associated with Cyanobacteria in Recreational and Drinking Water

Cyanobacterial mass occurrences, also known as water blooms, have been associated with adverse health effects of both humans and animals. They can also be a burden to drinking water treatment facilities. Risk assessments of the blooms have generally focused on the cyanobacteria themselves and their toxins. However, heterotrophic bacteria thriving among cyanobacteria may also be responsible for many of the adverse health effects, but their role as the etiological agents of these health problems is poorly known. In addition, studies on the water purification efficiency of operating water treatment plants during cyanobacterial mass occurrences in their water sources are rare. In the present study, over 600 heterotrophic bacterial strains were isolated from natural freshwater, brackish water or from treated drinking water. The sampling sites were selected as having frequent cyanobacterial occurrences in the water bodies or in the water sources of the drinking water treatment plants. In addition, samples were taken from sites where cyanobacterial water blooms were surmised to have caused human health problems. The isolated strains represented bacteria from 57 different genera of the Gamma-, Alpha- or Betaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Flavobacteria, Sphingobacteria, Bacilli and Deinococci classes, based on their partial 16S rRNA sequences. Several isolates had no close relatives among previously isolated bacteria or cloned 16S rRNA genes of uncultivated bacteria. The results show that water blooms are associated with a diverse community of cultivable heterotrophic bacteria. Chosen subsets of the isolated strains were analysed for features such as their virulence gene content and possible effect on cyanobacterial growth. Of the putatively pathogenic haemolytic strains isolated in the study, the majority represented the genus Aeromonas. Therefore, the Aeromonas spp. strains isolated from water samples associated with adverse health effects were screened for the virulence gene types encoding for enterotoxins (ast, alt and act/aerA/hlyA), flagellin subunits (flaA/flaB), lipase (lip/pla/lipH3/alp-1) and elastase (ahyB) by PCR. The majority (90%) of the Aeromonas strains included one or more of the six screened Aeromonas virulence gene types. The most common gene type was act, which was present in 77% of the strains. The fla, ahyB and lip genes were present in 30 37% of the strains. The prevalence of the virulence genes implies that the Aeromonas may be a factor in some of the cyanobacterial associated health problems. Of the 183 isolated bacterial strains that were studied for possible effects on cyanobacterial growth, the majority (60%) either enhanced or inhibited growth of cyanobacteria. In most cases, they enhanced the growth, which implies mutualistic interactions. The results indicate that the heterotrophic bacteria have a role in the rise and fall of the cyanobacterial water blooms. The genetic and phenotypic characteristics and the ability to degrade cyanobacterial hepatotoxins of 13 previously isolated Betaproteobacteria strains, were also studied. The strains originated from Finnish lakes with frequent cyanobacterial occurrence. Tested strains degraded microcystins -LR and -YR and nodularin. The strains could not be assigned to any described bacterial genus or species based on their genetic or phenotypic features. On the basis of their characteristics a new genus and species Paucibacter toxinivorans was proposed for them. The water purification efficiency of the drinking water treatment processes during cyanobacterial water bloom in water source was assessed at an operating surface water treatment plant. Large phytoplankton, cyanobacterial hepatotoxins, endotoxins and cultivable heterotrophic bacteria were efficiently reduced to low concentrations, often below the detection limits. In contrast, small planktonic cells, including also possible bacterial cells, regularly passed though the water treatment. The passing cells may contribute to biofilm formation within the water distribution system, and therefore lower the obtained drinking water quality. The bacterial strains of this study offer a rich source of isolated strains for examining interactions between cyanobacteria and the heterotrophic bacteria associated with them. The degraders of cyanobacterial hepatotoxins could perhaps be utilized to assist the removal of the hepatotoxins during water treatment, whereas inhibitors of cyanobacterial growth might be useful in controlling cyanobacterial water blooms. The putative pathogenicity of the strains suggests that the health risk assessment of the cyanobacterial blooms should also cover the heterotrophic bacteria.

Quantitative effects of in-line operations on Campylobacter and Escherichia coli through two Australian broiler processing plants

Campylobacter is an important food borne pathogen, mainly associated with poultry. A lack of through-chain quantitative Campylobacter data has been highlighted within quantitative risk assessments. The aim of this study was to quantitatively and qualitatively measure Campylobacter and Escherichia coli concentration on chicken carcasses through poultry slaughter. Chickens (n = 240) were sampled from each of four flocks along the processing chain, before scald, after scald, before chill, after chill, after packaging and from individual caeca. The overall prevalence of Campylobacter after packaging was 83% with a median concentration of 0.8 log10 CFU/mL. The processing points of scalding and chilling had significant mean reductions of both Campylobacter (1.8 and 2.9 log10 CFU/carcase) and E. coli (1.3 and 2.5 log10 CFU/carcase). The concentration of E. coli and Campylobacter was significantly correlated throughout processing indicating that E. coli may be a useful indicator organism for reductions in Campylobacter concentration. The carriage of species varied between flocks, with two flocks dominated by Campylobacter coli and two flocks dominated by Campylobacter jejuni. Current processing practices can lead to significant reductions in the concentration of Campylobacter on carcasses. Further understanding of the variable effect of processing on Campylobacter and the survival of specific genotypes may enable more targeted interventions to reduce the concentration of this poultry associated pathogen.

Predictors of violent reconvictions and mortality among impulsive alcoholic violent offenders: A prospective study

Acts of violence lays a great burden on humankind. The negative effects of violence could be relieved by accurate prediction of violent recidivism. However, prediction of violence has been considered an inexact science hampered by scare knowledge of its causes. The study at hand examines risk factors of violent reconvictions and mortality among 242 Finnish male violent offenders exhibiting severe alcoholism and severe externalizing personality disorders. The violent offenders were recruited during a court-ordered 2-month inpatient mental status examination between 1990—1998. Controls were 1210 individuals matched by sex-, age-, and place of birth. After a 9-year non-incarcerated follow-up criminal register and mortality data were obtained from national registers. Risk analyses were applied to estimate odds and relative risk for recidivism and mortality. Risk variables that were included in the analyses were antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), borderline personality disorder (BPD), a comorbidity of ASPD and BPD, childhood adversities, alcohol consumption, age, and monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) genotype. In addition to risk analyses, temperament dimensions (Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire [TPQ]) were assessed. The prevalence of recidivistic acts of violence (32%) and mortality (16%) was high among the offenders. Severe personality disorders and childhood adversities increased the risk for recidivism and mortality both among offenders (OR 2.0–10.4) and in comparison between offenders and controls (RR 4.3–53.0). Offenders having BPD and a history of childhood maltreatment emerged as a group with a particularly poor prognosis. MAOA altered the effects of alcohol consumption and ageing. Alcohol consumption (+2.3%) and age (–7.3%) showed significant effects on the risk for violent reconvictions among the high activity MAOA (MAOA-H) offenders, but not among the low activity MAOA (MAOA-L) offenders. The offenders featured temperament dimensions of high novelty seeking, high harm avoidance, and low reward dependence matching Cloninger’s definition of explosive personality. The fact that the risk for recidivistic acts of violence and mortality accumulated into clearly defined subgroups supports future efforts to provide for evidence based violence prevention and risk assessments among violent offenders.

Patient doses in ct, dental cone beam ct and projection radiography in Finland, with emphasis on paediatric patients

Diagnostic radiology represents the largest man-made contribution to population radiation doses in Europe. To be able to keep the diagnostic benefit versus radiation risk ratio as high as possible, it is important to understand the quantitative relationship between the patient radiation dose and the various factors which affect the dose, such as the scan parameters, scan mode, and patient size. Paediatric patients have a higher probability for late radiation effects, since longer life expectancy is combined with the higher radiation sensitivity of the developing organs. The experience with particular paediatric examinations may be very limited and paediatric acquisition protocols may not be optimised. The purpose of this thesis was to enhance and compare different dosimetric protocols, to promote the establishment of the paediatric diagnostic reference levels (DRLs), and to provide new data on patient doses for optimisation purposes in computed tomography (with new applications for dental imaging) and in paediatric radiography. Large variations in radiation exposure in paediatric skull, sinus, chest, pelvic and abdominal radiography examinations were discovered in patient dose surveys. There were variations between different hospitals and examination rooms, between different sized patients, and between imaging techniques; emphasising the need for harmonisation of the examination protocols. For computed tomography, a correction coefficient, which takes individual patient size into account in patient dosimetry, was created. The presented patient size correction method can be used for both adult and paediatric purposes. Dental cone beam CT scanners provided adequate image quality for dentomaxillofacial examinations while delivering considerably smaller effective doses to patient compared to the multi slice CT. However, large dose differences between cone beam CT scanners were not explained by differences in image quality, which indicated the lack of optimisation. For paediatric radiography, a graphical method was created for setting the diagnostic reference levels in chest examinations, and the DRLs were given as a function of patient projection thickness. Paediatric DRLs were also given for sinus radiography. The detailed information about the patient data, exposure parameters and procedures provided tools for reducing the patient doses in paediatric radiography. The mean tissue doses presented for paediatric radiography enabled future risk assessments to be done. The calculated effective doses can be used for comparing different diagnostic procedures, as well as for comparing the use of similar technologies and procedures in different hospitals and countries.

Traversing the space between threats and violence: A review of threat assessment guidelines

While the majority of violent threats – defined as an expression of intent to do harm or act out violently against someone or something – do not progress to actual violence, a small proportion of threateners do go on to enact violence. Most researchers argue that violence risk assessments are inadequate for assessing threats of violence, which raises the question: how should a threat assessment (TA) be conducted? To begin to understand available frameworks for assessing threats, a systematic review of TA research literature was conducted. Most TA literature pertains to a specific domain (schools, public figure threats, workplaces) and target audience (clinicians, school personnel, law enforcement). TA guidelines are typically based on literature reviews with some based on empirical measures and others having no strong evidential basis. The most common concepts in TA are exploration of the threatener's mental health, the motivation for the threat and the presence of any plans. Rather than advocating for the development of a protocol for conducting TA, this article outlines the common areas of inquiry in assessing threats and highlights the limitations of current TA guidelines.

Phytophthora in Finnish nurseries

Human-mediated movement of plants and plant products is now generally accepted to be the primary mode of introduction of plant pathogens. Species of the genus Phytophthora are commonly spread in this way and have caused severe epidemics in silviculture, horticulture as well as natural systems all over the world. The aims of the study were to gather information on the occurrence of Phytophthora spp. in Finnish nurseries, to produce information for risk assessments for these Phytophthora spp. by determining their host ranges and tolerance of cold temperatures, and to establish molecular means for their detection. Phytophthora cactorum was found to persist in natural waterbodies and results suggest that irrigation water might be a source of inoculum in nurseries. In addition to P. cactorum, isolates from ornamental nursery Rhododendron yielded three species new to Finland: P. ramorum, P. plurivora and P. pini. The only species with quarantine status, P. ramorum, was most adapted to growth in cold temperatures and able to persist in the nursery in spite of an annual sanitation protocol. Phytophthora plurivora and the closely related P. pini had more hosts among Nordic tree and plant species than P. ramorum and P. cactorum, and also had higher infectivity rates. All four species survived two weeks in -5 °C , and thus soil survival of these Phytophthoras in Finland is likely under current climatic conditions. The most common tree species in Finnish nurseries, Picea abies, was highly susceptible to P. plurivora and P. pini in pathogenicity trials. In a histological examination of P. plurivora in P. abies shoot tissues, fast necrotrophic growth was observed in nearly all tissues. The production of propagules in P. abies shoot tissue was only weakly indicated. In this study, a PCR DGGE technique was developed for simultaneous detection and identification of Phytophthora spp. It reliably detected Phytophthora in plant tissues and could discriminate most test species as well as indicate instances of multiple-species infections. It proved to be a useful detection and identification tool either applied alone or in concert with traditional isolation culture techniques. All of the introduced species of Phytophthora had properties that promote a high risk of establishment and spread in Finland. It is probable that more pathogens of this genus will be introduced and become established in Finland and other Nordic countries unless efficient phytosanitary control becomes standard practice in the international plant trade.