Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

Contact Lens Complications [Third Edition]

"Contact Lens Complications has become established as the definitive guide to the ocular response to contact lens wear. In this highly anticipated third edition, award-winning contact lens author, clinician and researcher, Professor Nathan Efron, presents a thoroughly revised and expanded, clinician-friendly account of how to identify, understand and manage contact lens complications in modern-day practice. Professor Efron is renowned for his ability to distil often complex principles of ocular physiology and pathology into an easy-to-read, highly structured format. The subject matter is systematically laid out, with various complications arranged logically by tissue structure - which is the way practitioners naturally approach clinical problems. Beautifully presented and lavishly illustrated with full-colour schematic diagrams and clinical pictures, this book can serve as both a practical chair-side manual and authoritative reference."--publisher website

The consultative process used in outreach : a narrative account

Aim The aim of this paper was to provide a narrative account of the communication skills used in an effective outreach consultation utilizing Neighbour’s consultative model. Other consultation models were considered; however, because of their overly comprehensive approach or emphasis on behaviour modification, these were deemed inappropriate. Background The nursing profession has endured significant changes of late and as a result is developing more autonomous roles in both the community and the acute health care settings. In the past, the term consultancy was used within the medical context; nowadays, there are advance nurse practitioners for whom consultancy is an integral part of their role. Although every nursing interaction is in essence a consultation, the fact that nurses are taking up on new advanced roles highlights the necessity for nurses to develop their consultation skills even further. Therefore, it makes sense to explore what aspects of that consultancy role needs special consideration in order to ensure that positive outcomes are achieved. Conclusions This paper has used a narrative account to uncover those salient skills needed to enhance the therapeutic relationship with a patient requiring the services of outreach. Furthermore, the application of a recognized consultation model was used to elucidate the underpinning knowledge of systematic history taking and assessment as well as demonstrating the communication skills and strategies needed to increase the patient’s participation and empowerment throughout the consultation. Relevance to clinical practice Effective communication skills encompassed in a consultative model are integral to the success in safeguarding the well-being of patients requiring advanced levels of care. Prejudging or pre-empting information being conveyed can be detrimental to patient safety and may prolong or complicate treatment plans.

The Media and Communications in Australia, [4th Edition]

The most widely used introduction to the Australian media, fully updated to reflect the increasing prominence of the internet in the communication and entertainment industries. Description Traditional media are being reshaped by digital technologies. The funding model for quality journalism has been undermined by the drift of advertising online, demarcations between different forms of media are rapidly fading, and audiences have fragmented. We can catch up with our favourite TV show on a tablet, social media can be more important than mainstream radio in a crisis, and organisations large and small have become publishers in their own right on apps. Nevertheless mainstream media remain powerful. The Media and Communications in Australia offers a systematic introduction to this dynamic field. Fully updated and revised to take account of recent developments, this fourth edition outlines the key media industries and explains how communications technologies are impacting on them. It provides a thorough overview of the main approaches taken in studying the media, and includes an expanded 'issues' section with new chapters on social media, gaming, apps, the environment, media regulation, ethics and privacy. With contributions from some of Australia's best researchers and teachers in the field, The Media and Communications in Australia remains the most comprehensive and reliable introduction to media and communications available. It is an ideal student text, and a reference for teachers of media and anyone interested in this influential industry.

Assessment of revised recruitment standards for asthma in the Australian Defence Force

Objective To assess the impact of relaxed asthma recruitment standards adopted by the Australian Defence Force (ADF) in 2007. Methods A retrospective audit was conducted on clinical and administrative data for recruits, with and without mild asthma, in their first year of service. Results There was no evidence that mild asthmatics experienced worse outcomes than nonasthmatic recruits. Mild asthmatics had fewer illnesses and restricted duty days and were less costly compared to other recruits. There was no difference in the rate of discharge (attrition) between those with and without mild asthma. Conclusions The revised recruitment standards for asthma in the ADF have not resulted in unanticipated medical or administrative costs to the organisation. Health and administrative outcomes differed little between mild asthmatics and non-asthmatic recruits in their first twelve months of service.

Three-dimensional analysis of budding sites and released virus suggests a revised model for HIV-1 morphogenesis

Current models of HIV-1 morphogenesis hold that newly synthesized viral Gag polyproteins traffic to and assemble at the cell membrane into spherical protein shells. The resulting late-budding structure is thought to be released by the cellular ESCRT machinery severing the membrane tether connecting it to the producer cell. Using electron tomography and scanning transmission electron microscopy, we find that virions have a morphology and composition distinct from late-budding sites. Gag is arranged as a continuous but incomplete sphere in the released virion. In contrast, late-budding sites lacking functional ESCRT exhibited a nearly closed Gag sphere. The results lead us to propose that budding is initiated by Gag assembly, but is completed in an ESCRT-dependent manner before the Gag sphere is complete. This suggests that ESCRT functions early in HIV-1 release-akin to its role in vesicle formation-and is not restricted to severing the thin membrane tether.

Grading : A Workbook of Manual Land Grading Techniques [Revised Edition]

Grading is basic to the work of Landscape Architects concerned with design on the land. Gradients conducive to easy use, rainwater drained away, and land slope contributing to functional and aesthetic use are all essential to the amenity and pleasure of external environments. This workbook has been prepared specifically to support the program of landscape construction for students in Landscape Architecture. It is concerned primarily with the technical design of grading rather than with its aesthetic design. It must be stressed that the two aspects are rarely separate; what is designed should be technically correct and aesthetically pleasing - it needs to look good as well as to function effectively. This revised edition contains amended and new content which has evolved out of student classes and discussion with colleagues. I am pleased to have on record that every delivery of this workbook material has resulted in my own better understanding of grading and the techniques for its calculation and communication.

“My hands are plunged in oranges”…: an experiential account of a working process

This presentation incorporated the live performance throughout, by the author, of movement from “The All Weather Project” by Liz Roche. Movement sections are indicated by italics. “I am going to start by dancing for you… Movement: Live performance of solo approximately 10 minutes in duration This is the introduction... Through my PhD research, I am examining the choreographic process from the perspective of the independent contemporary dancer, through embodying this role as a researcher/participant. My methodological frameworks, which utilise video documentation and journal writing, could be characterised as ethnographic, multi-modal embodied theorising, leading to “multi-dimensional theorising” (I adopt this term from Susan Melrose). In this way, I am unwinding the embodied practice of dancing, through the co-existent layers of experience, towards forming a theoretical understanding of the issues that arise for the dancer. The issues that I have identified as relevant to my research are those relating to the dancer’s ‘moving identity’ or way of moving, as a mutable and adaptable form that must alter and re-adjust to each different choreographic engram or movement vocabulary, that she/he encounters. I am examining this interplay between stability and change. I also reflect on the impact of destabilisation and flux on the dancer’s identity in a wider sense, as she/he relates outwardly to signifying factors within the social strata. Today I am going to bring you through a reflection on the working process of a dance piece as experienced from the inside. By doing so, I hope to capture and elucidate the multi-dimensional layers which existed for me within this process. Through displaying these fragments together, I endeavour to invoke the ‘totality’ of the experience...

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to four selected environmental risk factors in South Africa

INTRODUCTION: The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure. METHODS: The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty. RESULTS: Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence-based policies and programs must be developed and implemented to address these risk factors at individual, household, and community levels.

A generalised deficit can account for problems in facial emotion recognition in schizophrenia

Neuroimaging research has shown localised brain activation to different facial expressions. This, along with the finding that schizophrenia patients perform poorly in their recognition of negative emotions, has raised the suggestion that patients display an emotion specific impairment. We propose that this asymmetry in performance reflects task difficulty gradations, rather than aberrant processing in neural pathways subserving recognition of specific emotions. A neural network model is presented, which classifies facial expressions on the basis of measurements derived from human faces. After training, the network showed an accuracy pattern closely resembling that of healthy subjects. Lesioning of the network led to an overall decrease in the network’s discriminant capacity, with the greatest accuracy decrease to fear, disgust and anger stimuli. This implies that the differential pattern of impairment in schizophrenia patients can be explained without having to postulate impairment of specific processing modules for negative emotion recognition.

Towards equalisation of the impact of the penal fine : why the wealth of the offender was taken into account

Important changes in the legal regulation of the fine culminated in the implementation of the day‐fine system in many European countries during the twentieth century. These changes resulted from various late nineteenth century rationalities that considered the fine a justifiable punishment. Therefore, they supported extending its application by making it affordable for people on low incomes, which meant imprisonment for fine default could mostly be avoided without undermining the end of punishment. In this paper I investigate the historical development of the penal fine as well as the changing forms of this penalty in Western European criminal systems from the end of the eighteenth century until the late nineteenth century.

The space of make: A topological account of the studio

Approaches to art-practice-as-research tend to draw a distinction between the processes of creative practice and scholarly reflection. According to this template, the two sites of activity – studio/desk, work/writing, body/mind – form the ‘correlative’ entity known as research. Creative research is said to be produced by the navigation of world and thought: spaces that exist in a continual state of tension with one another. Either we have the studio tethered to brute reality while the desk floats free as a site for the fluid cross-pollination of texts and concepts. Or alternatively, the studio is characterized by the amorphous, intuitive play of forms and ideas, while the desk represents its cartography, mapping and fixing its various fluidities. In either case, the research status of art practice is figured as a fundamentally riven space. However, the nascent philosophy of Speculative Realism proposes a different ontology – one in which the space of human activity comprises its own reality, independent of human perception. The challenge it poses to traditional metaphysics is to rethink the world as if it were a real space. When applied to practice-led research, this reconceptualization challenges the creative researcher to consider creative research as a contiguous space – a topology where thinking and making are not dichotomous points but inflections in an amorphous and dynamic field. Instead of being subject to the vertical tension between earth and air, a topology of practice emphasizes its encapsulated, undulating reality – an agentive ‘object’ formed according to properties of connectedness, movement and differentiation. Taking the central ideas of Quentin Meillassoux and Graham Harman as a point of departure, this paper will provide a speculative account of the interplay of spatialities that characterise the author’s studio practice. In so doing, the paper will model the innovative methodological potential produced by the analysis of topological dimensions of the studio and the way they can be said to move beyond the ‘geo-critical’ divide.